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Area Forecast Discussion

105
FXUS64 KOHX 302321
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

EVEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT THIS EVENING...FLIGHT
CATEGORIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT IT SHOULD BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT OF THE PREVAILING LINES FOR NOW.

BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING...CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BE FALLING AND A STIFF
BREEZE WILL KICK UP AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BEHIND THIS EVENING`S FRONT. MAINLY MVFR CIGS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS WILL BE COMMON PLACE
WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. IT SHOULDN`T BE AS BREEZY AT
KCSV...BUT THEY MAY BE THE ONLY ONES TO SEE ANY -RA.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...AS OF 300 PM, WE HAD YET ANOTHER SUNNY AND COOL
AFTERNOON UNFOLDING ACROSS THE MID-STATE, WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

SATELLITE PICS SHOWED A BAND OF CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, IN ASSOCIATION WITH OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR SOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BY
AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW, USHERING IN
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S, BUT THE COLD WILL
REALLY START TO BE FELT SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND TUMBLING TEMPS SEND WIND CHILLS INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S
IN MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT, AND TEMPS BOTTOM OUT BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY MAINLY BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES.

STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S, AND
AS THE CENTER OF THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPECT TEMPS TO DIP ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HARD FREEZE AT A
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS (WITH LOWS OF 27 DEGREES OR LOWER).

NURSERIES AND THOSE WITH TENDER OUTDOOR PLANTS SHOULD MAKE PLANS
NOW TO COVER PLANTS OR BRING THEM INDOORS TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE
COLD THIS WEEKEND.

AFTER OUR WEEKEND COLD SNAP, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE
BY EARLY NEXT, AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR AREA AND HIGH CLOUDS
START TO INCREASE. THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE SOME FROSTY LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH READINGS FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. HOWEVER, AFTER THAT LOOK FOR LOWS TO
BE IN THE 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND SEND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA AND PRODUCING A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL. LOOKS LIKE
AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL PROBABLY
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN (OR MAYBE MORE) BETWEEN NEXT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

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