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Area Forecast Discussion

883
FXUS64 KOHX 190831
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
331 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
SURFACE OBS SHOWING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 70S. DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOP IN SPOTS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS KY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...BUT OUR CWA IS MOSTLY BLANKETED BY A
LOW STRATUS DECK SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY DENSE FOG CONCERNS IN OUR
AREA THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SPAWN CONSIDERABLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST PER ALL MODEL GUIDANCE.
THIS ACTIVITY IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID STATE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MAIN QUESTIONS
CONCERNING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY DUE TO LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. FOR NOW WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE FOR THE TUESDAY
NIGHT PERIOD...BUT SHOULD AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORM
PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED CONSIDERABLY. SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS JUST TO OUR
NORTHWEST...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS TONIGHT MAINLY
IN NORTHERN ZONES ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANYTHING
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ATTM.

FROM WEDNESDAY ON...THE HEAT IS ON AS GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST THAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD AND CENTERS AROUND THE MEM AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH CENTER OF H5 RIDGE NEARBY AND 500MB HEIGHTS RISING TO
593-595DM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...A STRING OF SEVERAL HOT DRY
DAYS IN A ROW IS ON TAP FOR MOST OF THE MID STATE...ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION WAS KEPT EACH DAY FOR THE
PLATEAU. 00Z MEX NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE A WARM BIAS AS THEY HAVE
ALL SUMMER AND HAVE UNDERCUT SOMEWHAT...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR
HIGHS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WEST
OF THE PLATEAU. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL AID IN THE MIXING OUT OF
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S EACH AFTERNOON...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
STILL RISE TO AROUND 100 ON WED/THU AND INTO THE 100-105 RANGE
FRI/SAT/SUN...WHICH IS GETTING CLOSE TO OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 105+. LUCKILY BY NEXT WEEK UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD PER GLOBAL MODELS AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CONUS...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      90  73  94  74 /  20  40  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    90  72  93  72 /  20  40  20  10
CROSSVILLE     84  69  87  69 /  30  40  30  20
COLUMBIA       91  73  95  72 /  20  30  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   91  71  94  72 /  20  30  20  10
WAVERLY        91  72  93  72 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER





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