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Area Forecast Discussion

319
FXUS64 KOHX 231936 CCA
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion...corrected for misspelling
National Weather Service Nashville TN
150 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Surface ridge is poised to move across Middle Tennessee this
afternoon, ushering in return flow and considerable moisture
advection during the next 24-48 hours. Temperatures will be warmer
today than yesterday and warmer tomorrow than today, with dew points
increasing to near summer-like readings by Wednesday afternoon. By
mid-week, a surface low bearing the usual appendages sets up over
the central Plains and really doesn`t seem to go much of anywhere
for several days. We`ll start introducing POP`s late Tuesday night
and Wednesday, but Thursday appears to be the peak weather day if
you have to pick one. NAM gives us CAPE`s in excess of 3,500 J/kg
and LI`s approaching -10 Thursday afternoon, which is considerably
more instability than the GFS & ECMWF, but scattered storms will
develop, regardless. Temperatures most areas will level off in the
mid 60`s/mid 80`s from tomorrow at least through day 7, which is
several degrees above normal. Nothing in the forecast models
suggests any sort of air mass change until after day 7, so it
appears that isolated/scattered POP`s are warranted most every day
give the persistent moist, unstable environment we`re soon to be
locked into. At this time, the SPC does not have any sort of severe
weather risk for Middle Tennessee through the day 4-8 outlook, so
non-severe storms are about the worst we can expect at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR. Light winds with clear skies look to dominate this taf
period. KCSV has some stronger winds that will linger into the
afternoon but will become light and variable this evening. Clouds
look to roll in from the west tomorrow afternoon but cigs look to
remain VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      57  86  64  88  67 /   0   0  10  30  20
Clarksville    55  83  62  85  65 /   0  10  20  40  30
Crossville     51  81  59  84  64 /   0   0  10  20  20
Columbia       56  85  62  87  66 /   0   0  10  20  20
Lawrenceburg   56  86  62  87  66 /   0   0  10  20  20
Waverly        57  84  63  86  67 /   0  10  20  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........Barnwell



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