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Area Forecast Discussion

138
FXUS64 KOHX 011935
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
235 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE COMING
FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS...SO FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM. ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL WARM
TOWARD 90 DEGREES WEST OF THE PLATEAU. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN
AFTERNOON STORM.

BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING
COLD FRONT APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
A DECENT AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE
FRONT..BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THE STORMS
MOVING IN LATE AT NIGHT. SOME TEMP RECOVERY MAY DESTABILIZE THE
EAST HALF FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL...THE SEVERE
RISK SEEMS UNIMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. RIGHT NOW...MY BEST GUESS
WOULD BE A WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH 40-45 MPH WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 INCH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THIS WEEKEND...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE. BY
SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. SATURDAY WILL
BE SUNNY...BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S WITH A WNW WIND 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD...WITH SOME AREAS DIPPING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THIS COULD BRING THE FIRST PATCHY FROST
OF THE SEASON TO SOME SPOTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY AS
ENERGY ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY AND SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION...WITH
WEAK RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING MIDWEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      62  90  66  78 /  05  20  90  70
CLARKSVILLE    60  90  65  76 /  10  30  90  60
CROSSVILLE     57  84  64  75 /  05  10  70  80
COLUMBIA       61  90  66  76 /  05  20  90  70
LAWRENCEBURG   61  89  65  77 /  05  20  90  70
WAVERLY        62  90  65  75 /  10  30  90  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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