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Area Forecast Discussion

429
FXUS64 KOHX 310031
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
731 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
2 DISTINCT SHORTWAVE AXES IN PLACE THIS EVENING. THE FIRST IS
LOCATED FROM THE ARKLATEX AND EXTENDS NE. THE SECOND IS OVER NRN
GA AND EXTENDS NW. MOISTURE POOL IS GREATEST ON THE EAST SIDE OF
BOTH AXES. THUS...WE HAVE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN TN.
HOWEVER...UD FIELDS AND MOISTURE DEPTH LEVELS SHOULD DECREASE
BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

HRRR AND MODEL DATA BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF
BEFORE 06Z. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE THE POST 06Z POPS.

AS FOR FOG POTENTIAL...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RATHER LOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST THIRD...WHERE FCST FOG INCLUSION IS ABSENT. MODELS
DEPICT LOW T-TD SPREADS BY 12Z. FURTHERMORE...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS. WILL ADJUST THE
06Z-12Z GRIDS AND INCLUDE PATCHY FOG ACROSS ALL OF THE MID STATE
NOW.

OTHER THAN A SLIGHT UPWARD CLOUD TWEAK...REMAINDER OF FCST IS ON
TRACK. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAFS

UPPER LOW CREATING THE SHRA/TSRA NOW MAINLY OVER WRN TN WILL
RETROGRADE MONDAY AND ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL KEEP TAF SITES DRY THROUGH THIS 24-HR TAF
PERIOD ONCE CURRENTLY ACTIVITY WANES. SPEAKING OF...ONLY SHRA AND
MAYBE A TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT CKV THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THEREAFTER...WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PARTIAL
CLEARING OUT TONIGHT...FOG COULD DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT CSV AND CKV WHERE TEMPOS OF HIGH IFR VSBYS
HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED. OTHER THAN A RANDOM SHRA NEAR CSV
TOMORROW...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND VFR ON MONDAY FROM ABOUT
14Z ON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED MUCH OF
THE DAY FROM OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES DOWN TO OUR SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WEER OBSERVED ELSEWHERE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THEN MOST OF IT
WILL END OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER AL/GA LIFTS UP THE
APPALACHIANS. SOME PATCHES OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST HALF.

AFTER THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM MIDDLE TN...AND IS REPLACED
BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...A STAGNANT PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA. A TYPICAL LATE AUGUST / EARLY SEPTEMBER AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL MONDAY...THEN
IT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH INCREASED RIDGING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL OR WIDESPREAD RAIN IS IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      67  87  67  90 /  20  20  10  20
CLARKSVILLE    65  86  66  89 /  20  20  10  20
CROSSVILLE     63  80  64  83 /  20  20  10  20
COLUMBIA       65  86  66  90 /  20  20  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   65  85  67  89 /  20  20  10  20
WAVERLY        65  87  67  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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