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Area Forecast Discussion

265
FXUS64 KOHX 251611
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1111 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Latest surface observations show very hot and humid conditions
this morning, with temperatures already in the mid 80s to lower
90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. The combination of the
heat and the very moist airmass, as shown by the 12Z OHX sounding
which had a PWAT of 1.91 inches, will lead to heat index values
from 100 to 105 across most of the CWA. Some areas may briefly
exceed the 105 degree threshold this afternoon, especially in
northwestern zones where dewpoints are highest, but the small
temporal and spatial extent of the impact along with expected
convection this afternoon should negate any need for an advisory.

Speaking of convection, latest radar imagery already shows
showers developing on the Plateau, and visible satellite indicates
towering cumulus forming elsewhere across the Mid State. Latest
HRRR runs are initialized poorly and are overly aggressive with
rainfall today, but earlier runs seemed reasonable showing
scattered showers and storms throughout the CWA this afternoon.
Cannot rule out a strong storm or two with wet microbursts this
afternoon as lapse rates are a tad more steep than yesterday and
mid levels are slightly cooler with 500 mb temperatures around
-5C, but nothing widespread is anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Stagnant weather pattern remains across the mid-state as a moist
and unstable airmass holds. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
again expected to breakout...mainly in the afternoon and early
eve. Have only included vicinity at this time. Later tonight...
fog again possible all sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      95  75  93  75  92 /  40  40  50  30  50
Clarksville    92  74  90  73  89 /  40  40  50  30  50
Crossville     88  70  87  70  86 /  50  40  60  40  60
Columbia       94  74  93  73  92 /  40  40  40  40  40
Lawrenceburg   94  74  93  73  91 /  40  30  40  30  40
Waverly        92  74  92  74  91 /  40  40  40  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......55/Shamburger
AVIATION........13



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