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Area Forecast Discussion

059
FXUS64 KOHX 021859
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
158 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN U.S...

LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
CLEAR SKIES MOST LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY SURFACE RIDGE SPANS GOOD
PART OF EASTERN HALF OF U.S. WITH TEMPS AT MIDDAY IN THE 70S AT
MANY LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE PLATEAU. SURFACE WINDS
HAVE BEEN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
RELAXED UNDER SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS HAS FORMED EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG PLATEAU
STILL EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CLIMB INTO MID AND UPPER 70S AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 70S
ALONG THE PLATEAU. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA DOWN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS KICKED OFF AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME
OF THE DEBRIS CLOUDS (HIGH CLOUDS) MAY TRY AND WORK THIS WAY.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND BE CENTERED DOWN THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL TURN LIGHT WINDS TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS A TAD WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY AROUND 80...WITH
MID AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE PLATEAU. MONDAY THE 1028 MBAR SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH  A
STRONG RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A GOOD SOUTHERLY
FEED COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
ON MONDAY AND THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE
80S AT MANY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL BE
IN THE 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN HERE IN
THE MID STATE BEFORE NEXT WEEKEND.

BY WEDNESDAY A SUBTROPICAL/HYBRID LOW FEATURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA BOTH IN GFS AND EURO WORKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN POSITIONING OF SYSTEM
SHOW UP IN THE MODELS. GFS TRACKS IT INTO SOUTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY
AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z TUESDAY. EURO KEEPS SYSTEM
OFF SHORE AND WORKS IT NORTHWARD OFF EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      53  81  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    53  80  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     50  73  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       51  81  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   52  80  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        53  80  57  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





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