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Area Forecast Discussion

985
FXUS64 KOHX 230811
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
311 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered convection winding down along the Tennessee River at
08z. Looks like capping underway in RAP from southeast Missouri
across southern Illinois into southwest Indiana as 700 mbar temps
in excess of +12 degrees...with western Kentucky down through
western Tennessee on the edge of the lid. Air mass across Middle
Tennessee is juiced up pretty good with precipitable water around
2 inches which is a little shy of 2 standard deviations for July
based on 1948-2010 Nashville integrated surface to 300 mbar
precipitable water. MUCAPES climb to around 1500 joules per
kilogram in the afternoon heat today so expect to see some
scattered convection once again. Have backed off on the high
temps for today from what we had forecast yesterday for today but
heat indicies will still be above 100 west of plateau with a few
above 105 back along the Tennessee River this afternoon. So will
leave heat advisory going even though some areas may not
technically reach criteria impact will be similar. Will keep a
small pop for the evening then drop pops for the overnight hours.
On Sunday look for scattered convection once again developing with
temps up in the low 90`s west of the plateau. By Monday upper
ridge will have retrograded enough to allow for a frontal boundary
to begin approaching from the northwest and this will allow for
convection to increase across the area with thunderstorm chances
right on the through the work week continuing into the weekend as
surface front doesn`t make it through Middle Tennessee but stays
within proximity and air mass remains moist and warm while a
series of mid and upper level disturbances traverse the area. Max
temps next week should be closer to climatology but lows at night
will be averaging 5 to 7 degrees above normal. Normal high for
Nashville this time of the year is 89 with low of 68.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Afternoon storms are becoming more isolated as we
start to lose our daytime heating. Meanwhile, a weak ridge of
high pressure is situated across Middle Tennessee this evening,
with light/calm winds overnight and radiation fog likely.
Visibilities should remain MVFR or better, but IFR conditions are
possible at CKV based on METAR`s there early this morning.
Scattered convection is again possible tomorrow, and will handle
this for now with VC remarks after 18Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  75  93  75  93 /  30  20  30  20  40
Clarksville    92  74  91  74  90 /  30  20  30  20  50
Crossville     88  69  87  70  87 /  30  20  30  20  50
Columbia       93  73  92  74  92 /  30  20  40  20  40
Lawrenceburg   92  73  92  74  92 /  30  20  40  20  40
Waverly        93  74  91  75  91 /  30  20  40  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-
Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-
Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........07



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