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Area Forecast Discussion

871
FXUS64 KOHX 300031
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
731 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC COMPARISONS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS REVEAL MORE OF AN ANTI
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TN AS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO WHEN THE FLOW WAS
STRAIGHT. THIS ADDED EXERTIONS IS WORKING TO IMPEDE THE
CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD. SO...AS SFC TEMPS
COOL DOWN...THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. HRRR IS IN SUPPORT OF THE
TREND.

ONLY CHANGE TO FCST WILL BE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
MONITORING A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS APPROACHING CKV AROUND 30/00Z...BUT
WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT LOOKS LIKE AT WORST SOME BKN MVFR CB CEILINGS/VSBYS
CKV...BUT PROBABLY MORE LIKELY VFR CEILINGS...THRU 30/01Z. IF CONVECTION
HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH...SOME VCTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND BNA 30/01Z-
30/03Z. AS CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO MID STATE...POST BKN/OVC AC/CI
POSSIBLE THRU 30/06Z-30/07Z CKV/BNA. SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
NEAR CKV BY 30/06Z AND TO PUSH E OF CSV 30/12Z-30/14Z. AS SFC FRONT
APPROACHES CSV...MVFR CEILING/FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. MVFR FOG CKV/BNA
30/08Z-30/14Z. BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE
VFR/SKC CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES 30/15Z-30/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING LEFT QUITE THE SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...STILL THINK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE HRRR AS MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR...A VERY NICE CHANGE
IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
HUMID ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED INSTEAD OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES TOO.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AGAIN SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH LOSES ITS STRONGHOLD. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      75  90  66  90 /  30  10   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    71  88  65  89 /  40   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     72  85  64  84 /  30  20   0   0
COLUMBIA       75  90  66  90 /  20  20   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   74  90  66  89 /  20  20   0   0
WAVERLY        73  89  67  89 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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