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Area Forecast Discussion

575
FXUS64 KOHX 270019 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
619 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...LIGHT RAIN WITH MINIMAL VSBY IMPACTS EXPECTED.
ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/BEST LIFTING MECHANISMS AROUND OR N OF CSV 27/03Z-27/12Z...
WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL RATE RESULTING IN MVFR VSBYS BUT OVERALL ICING IMPACTS
MINIMAL. CEILINGS RANGING FROM MVFR CKV TO VFR CSV WILL GENERALLY SETTLE INTO
THE LOW MVFR END AS BRUNT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DYNAMICS MOVE ACROSS MID STATE
THRU 27/06Z W -27/12Z E AND NWLY SFC WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS BUILD IN BEHIND SFC
FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY BE EXPERIENCED CKV/BNA
27/05Z-27/08Z...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VSBYS OR ICING IMPACTS EXPECTED. INFLUENCES
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE GENERALLY E OF MID STATE AFTER 27/18Z...AND
WITH DRY NWLY FLOW AND BUILDING RIDGING INFLUENCES EXPECTED...CEILING EROSIONS
EXPECTED AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 27/18Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 206 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING RAIN INITIALLY
THIS EVENING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THEN RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH SNOW ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER AND OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE FIRST ON GRASSY AREAS AND THEN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU AS A
STRONG SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY RACES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND BEING FAVORED. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AREAS IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WITH FLURRIES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE
PLATEAU. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST QUICKLY THANKSGIVING MORNING
BUT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU UNTIL NOON IS
POSSIBLE. 1032 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WORKS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD
RETURN FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY AND 60S
BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ACTIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.

CLIMATE...
THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS
BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST
TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN
2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON
THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER
26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE
SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW
HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.
&&
$$
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