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Area Forecast Discussion

625
FXUS64 KOHX 310954
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
454 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper high will begin to weaken today as an upper level trough axis
moves our way. An associated cold front will move through on
Thursday so we will see low convection chances the next 2
afternoon/evenings. Otw, there is a weakness in the ridge that
stretches from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward along the Carolina
coast. Some tropical activity is indicated over the Gulf the next
few days but these systems should steer any storminess off to our
east. Thus, high pressure at the sfc will remain to our north and
will provide a drier east and northeasterly low level fetch.
Furthermore, the tropical activity off to our southeast will act to
steal some of the moisture that would otherwise interact with
the approaching boundary.

For the near term temps, hot weather to continue for one more day as
highs today again reach into the lower 90s for many areas. The
relief from the heat will begin on Thursday with highs a good 5
degrees or so cooler than todays values.

In the ext fcst, drier air and lower dewpoints will prevail.
Afternoon capes will be minimal so we are looking at a dry extended
period. Southerly low level return will set up by late in the
extended, but upper level ridging will keep pops out of the fcst. A
closer examination of the lower level flow shows more of a
southeasterly fetch as opposed to a southerly or southwesterly gulf
tap.

For the ext temps, looks like mid 80s on Saturday with noticeably
lower rh values. Highs will warm to near 90 by the end of the ext
pd, but the lower rh values will remain. Overnight minimums will be
pleasant with 60s for much of the period...perhaps even some mid to
upper 50s for Saturday morning when some low level sfc ridging sets
up.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Weather pattern to remain similar today to last few days as upper
high hangs tight for another day. Isolated storms possible again
this afternoon. Changes likely tonight as upper trough axis
approaches overnight and not only brings the possibility of
isolated storms but likely deck of lower clouds toward 12z.
Cigs may drop to or below 1000ft all site. Patchy fog likely
to drop vsbys as well.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........07



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