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Area Forecast Discussion

619
FXUS64 KOHX 030800
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
300 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE SO FAR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CALM CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A DISTURBANCE TO KICK OFF SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
PLACED SCHC POPS IN FOR THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY FOR THE PLATEAU AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE SLIDES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THINGS LOOK SIMILAR
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL ALONG THE
PLATEAU...BUT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST IN REGARDS TO POPS TO THE
I65 CORRIDOR. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOVES A
BIT FURTHER WEST TO BRING IN MOST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
DAY.

BY MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THE REGION...BUT DECIDED TO KEEP MENTION OF POPS FOR THE
PLATEAU ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP OVER THE REGION BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM. THE BETTER SHOT FOR
PRECIP NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND IS A BIT AHEAD OF THE GFS WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT OVER
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR NOW HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WHEN
MODELS LINE UP BETTER IN REGARDS TO TROUGH AND FRONTAL TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV 03/08Z-03/14Z PER BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVERAGE...CALM WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A "DIRTY" RIDGING SFC/ALOFT PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POSSIBLE SCT/BKN AC TO SCT/BKN CI THRU 04/06Z.
CALM TO LIGHT SFC N/NE WINDS EXPECTED. DIURNAL DRIVEN ISO SHWR/TSTM
POSSIBLE 03/18Z-04/01Z ALSO...BUT REALLY ISO NATURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      93  71  93  71  92 /  10   0  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    92  68  92  68  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE     87  68  86  67  85 /  20  10  20  10  40
COLUMBIA       92  69  92  69  92 /  20   0  10  10  20
LAWRENCEBURG   91  68  92  68  91 /  20   0  10  10  20
WAVERLY        92  68  92  69  92 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........27
LONG TERM..................06



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