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Area Forecast Discussion

343
FXUS64 KOHX 240435 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1135 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD ACROSS MID STATE BRING
WITH IT MAINLY BKN AC/CI THRU AROUND 06/08Z W TO 06/12Z E. SOME PASSING
SCT CI ALOFT EXPECTED THRU 25/06Z. THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED THRU 25/06Z. ONLY EXCEPTION
COULD BE CKV...PER ERRATIC NIGHTLY FOG FORMATION POTENTIAL PER PARTICULAR
NIGHT`S LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AFFECTS. AS A RESULT...WILL
CONTINUE MENTIONING OF MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG REDUCED VSBYS 24/09Z-24/14Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 916 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
WEAK AND QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS EVENING.
NO PRECIP IS OCCURRING BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FEATURE. FOR THE UPDATE...THE
ONLY CHANGE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT. THIS MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT CHANGES WITH THE TEXT BASED
UPDATES. AT ANY RATE...WILL RESEND PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
RATHER QUICK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL BRING WITH IT MAINLY BKN
CI THRU 06/12Z-06/14Z. SOME PASSING SCT CI ALOFT EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
THUS...VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT NELY SFC WINDS EXPECTED THRU 24/24Z.
ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE CKV...PER ERRATIC NIGHTLY FOG FORMATION POTENTIAL
PER PARTICULAR NIGHT`S LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AFFECTS. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING OF MVFR TO TEMPO IFR FOG REDUCED VSBYS
24/09Z-24/14Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 338 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE, WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP IN ACROSS THE MID STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SEASONABLY
COOL, TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO
PUT A BIT OF A DIMMER ON OUR PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE LATE TODAY.

EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE
FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS STILL AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY,
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE A RATHER BREEZY DAY ON TUESDAY
AS WELL, AS SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER OUR AREA. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 30 MPH OR SO.

LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO OUR
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME ORIENTED LARGELY ALONG UPPER FLOW
AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD, WITH CLOUDS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAYBE EVEN INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT EVEN THAT MODEL KEEPS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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