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Area Forecast Discussion

270
FXUS64 KOHX 300120
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
820 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER MID TN BY
DAYBREAK WITH CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
40. COLDER LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN TIER AND UPPER
CUMBERLAND REGION WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG...AND EVEN A FEW PATCHES OF FROST. THE ONLY
UPDATES FOR THIS EVENING ARE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS AND
ADDING MENTION OF PATCHY FROST.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER THE MID STATE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, WITH SFC WINDS BLO 10KTS AND
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG AT CKV AND CSV BTWN 10Z AND 13Z
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME MVFR VSBY, AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS AT CKV. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH INTO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, SPREADING SOME BKN CI INTO THE CKV AREA
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

19

&&

327 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH DRY AIR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THURSDAY A VIRTUALLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH AND BEGIN TO USHER IN COLDER AIR. ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND MOVE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
TN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT COLDER CONDITIONS AND A LITTLE MORE
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE THERE
MIGHT EVEN BE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT FREEZING LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND
2200 FT MSL BY FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT QPF
THROUGHOUT EASTERN MIDDLE TN. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THE MIX
AND SNOW WORDING IN THE FCST FOR OUR EASTERN PLATEAU AREA.
THE CULPRIT IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR EASTERN TN. THE SYSTEM CARRIES A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT WITH A STRONG WIND MAX HELPING TO AID THE NEARLY DUE
SOUTH MOVEMENT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LEFT
OF THE TRACK AND WITHIN THE BETTER DEFORMATIONALLY DRIVEN AREA.
TIME HEIGHT DIAGRAMS OVER THE PLATEAU SHOWS MOISTURE EXTENDING
VERTICALLY TO JUST ABOVE 850 MB FOR FRIDAY EVENING.

OF BIGGER INTEREST...THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF A FREEZE
THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE
ELEVATED AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER KY WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOW TEMPS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
REACH THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. NO FREEZE WATCH
JUST YET...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

OTW...FOR RECREATIONAL PURPOSES ON SATURDAY...IT LOOKS RATHER COLD
AND BLUSTERY COMPARED TO THE WEATHER WE`VE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S TO PERHAPS THE LOWER 50S. WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AND PROVIDE A
WARMING TREND. TEMPS WILL REACH AND THEN SURPASS SEASONAL LEVELS BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON TUES AND WED
AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE EXTENDED.

21

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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