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Area Forecast Discussion

640
FXUS64 KOHX 270222
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
922 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS EXITED
AND SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAS GONE MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS SITUATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE, SO LOOK FOR
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOURLY GRIDS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL AT THIS POINT, SO NO FORECAST CHANGES ARE BEING
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A COUPLE OF SW MOVING SHOWERS NEAR KCKV AT ISSUANCE. SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THOUGH AND END BY 01Z. BIGGEST STORY TONIGHT MIGHT BE THE FOG.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED OFF KCKV AND KCSV TO 1/2SM BY 09Z. IN
THE END THIS MIGHT BE A TOUCH AGGRESSIVE BUT WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CALM SFC AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...
ITS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FLIGHT CATEGORIES RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE MID-STATE WEDNESDAY
LEAVING JUST SOME LIGHT WINDS AND SCT AFTERNOON DECKS.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS WARM AS EXPECTED
TODAY...THANKS TO A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WAS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK CONVERGENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS FOR THE WEST HALF OF MID TN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST WAS PUSHING DRIER AIR INTO THE EAST HALF OF
MID TN...WITH DEW POINTS 2-4 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG FORMATION.

A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE ESE.
THIS WILL BRING A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS...IN
THE 60S...AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...MAINLY LOWER 90S. A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WE WILL
CARRY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE NORTH HIGHLAND RIM
AND PLATEAU ON THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL APPROACH AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE.
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT...BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCE
WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT THE TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN ADVANCE. SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATES WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




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