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Area Forecast Discussion

135
FXUS64 KOHX 280001
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
701 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Instabilities have backed off considerably compared to yesterday,
and thus little in the way of convection is ongoing across the mid
state. The bulk of the activity is located over ern AR where the
deeper southerly flow resides.

Upper trough axis expected to move slowly eastward over the next 24
to 48 hrs. The southern portions of the axis will weaken
considerably and this will effect the degree of dynamics that works
across the mid state on Saturday. We will still see moisture
increase some toward Saturday morning, and there will be some
impulses of energy to work with. Thus, will go with higher pops on
Saturday but only in the 30 to 40 percent range. Instabilities will
again be on the low side so tstm development will be more isol/sct.

Pops will be virtually absent from the fcst for sat nt through sun
nt as the aforementioned axis lifts off to the east. Weak upper
ridging will be in place on Sunday although the ridge amplification
will be more notable in the mid levels.

For the near term temps, above normal values expected although the
cloud cover will reduce the diurnal/nocturnal swing on Saturday.
More in the way of sunshine will push temps up toward 90 degrees on
Sunday.

In the ext fcst, on Mon aft, mid level ridge axis will be at its
closest proximity. So, only a 20 percent chance of tstms will be
included. As the axis pulls east, moisture and instability will edge
upward. By Thu and Fri, a deep enough southerly flow will be in
place to drive pops up into the 30 to 40 percent range. Cannot
really go any higher than that as the better dynamics still remain
to the west. Otw, ext temps looking above normal by around 5 degrees
or so. 850 mb temps to hold in the 16c to 18c range.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Isolated convection managing to hold on over eastern Middle
Tennessee even as the sun is setting and loss of instability.
H-triple-r wants to break more showers out west of interstate 65
over the next couple of hours and there are light showers forming
as I type back in west Tennessee that will try and move into
western Middle Tennessee during the next hour. All in all am hard
pressed to find much forcing other than solar insolation and
outflow boundaries to kick off any shower or tstorm activity over
the next 24 hours. Timing will be nearly impossible but did go
with vicinity showers at both Clarksville and Nashville after 12z
Saturday.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........01/Boyd



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