« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » OHX Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

582
FXUS64 KOHX 250030 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
730 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE THE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
GROUPING IN THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT. PER MONITORING REGIONAL RADAR...
SATELLITE...AND SFC OBS TRENDS...ALONG WITH SHORT RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...
INCLUDING THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL(HRRR)...AND 00Z MON
KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE AND ASSOCIATED NUMERICAL PARAMETERS...VALUES...AND
INDICES...ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING NNE INTO AREAS S OF I-40
AND W OF I-65 PRESENTLY...BELIEVE THIS NLY PCPN TREK WILL CONTINUE THRU AT
LEAST THE EVENING HRS...IF NOT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND W OF I-65...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE SW THIS EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS AT LEAST WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
OVERNIGHT. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THIS
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS JUST E OF I-65 WITH ISO SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS FAR E
AS LOCATIONS JUST W OF THE PLATEAU REGION THIS EVENING...AND WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND LIFT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISO SHWRS/TSTM SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE PLATEAU REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO. BELIEVE WITH STRENGTHENING SLY SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT ANTICIPATED THRU THE NIGHT TIME HRS ALSO...BRINGING WARMER
AIR INTO THE AREA ALSO...RAISED LOWS W OF PLATEAU BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ALSO.
TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...SCT TSRA MOVING NORTH FROM MS/AL MAY AFFECT CKV/BNA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED MOST OF TONIGHT WITH
PERSISTENT SSE WINDS AROUND 10KT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE MS
VALLEY WILL BRING SCT SHRA/TSRA ON MONDAY...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE 12Z-18Z. EPISODES OF MVFR WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...BUT MOST OF THE MONDAY WILL BE VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 25KT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY HAS INCREASED
WINDS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS CREEPING INTO THE MID 60`S WEST OF I-65.
ALSO, A FEW RADAR ECHOES ARE NOW SHOWING UP OVER NORTHERN MS AND
WEST TN. LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 18Z STILL SHOWS MARGINAL
INSTABILITY, WITH THE ATMOSPHERE LARGELY DRY ABOVE 800 MB. LOOK
FOR THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TONIGHT, INCREASING POP`S AND CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
LIKELY STAY UP OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOW INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS, SO AS LONG AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID STATE. MODELS
SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ARK-LA-TEX BY 00Z TUESDAY
THAT WILL RIDE NE`WD ALONG THE WAVE AND STAYING TO OUR WEST,
THEREBY ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AS A RESULT, THE ENTIRE MID STATE IS UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON DAY 3. AFTER A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH WEAKER AS THE
SURFACE AIR MASS REMAINS UNCHANGED, MEANING THAT AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. IT APPEARS THAT MIDDLE TENNESSEE WON`T WITNESS
AN ACTUAL FROPA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.

ROSE

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
31





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.