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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS64 KOHX 281547 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
947 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PER CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF MID STATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON HRS...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE UPDATED THE
SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO MENTION SUNNY SKIES MOST PLACES.
WILL BE UPDATING THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS APPROACHING NOON
TO REMOVE MORNING WIND SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WORDING. OTHERWISE...
BELOW FORECAST REASONING AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CURRENT FORECAST.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 343 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...WE`LL START THE EARLY MORNING WITH A PESKY BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MID-STATE, EXCEPT FOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER, EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SEASONABLY COOL
SHUN-SHINY WEATHER BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, BUT ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO ONLY WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST. BY THURSDAY, HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA BELIEVE OUR CHANCE POPS ARE STILL LOOKING GOOD.
IN ADDITION, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
WARM TO ALLOW ALL THE PRECIP TO FALL AS RAIN, BEFORE ENDING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS DECREASE ON FRIDAY AND BY AFTERNOON TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WE`LL BE ENJOYING SOME MORE DRY, SUNSHINY AND SEASONABLY CHILLY
WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTING
AS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANT
ALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER.

MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOW
FROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
NEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFF
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACE
LOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),
SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSURE
FURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVE
FASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLE
TN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLD
CANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY
BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSS
THE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELS
SEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLY
ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT AS
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,
AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR!

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLY
CUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
SOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF IT
IS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-
FRONTAL AIR.

AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OF
THIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEAL
OF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKE
FORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE.

SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--
WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF!
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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