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Area Forecast Discussion

987
FXUS64 KOHX 181228
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
728 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR VIS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 19/03Z WHEN
-SHRA ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS/VIS SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE TONIGHT. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED THANKS TO PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND LINGERING
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. WINDS
ARE ALSO CALM...WHICH IS ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING AS LOW AS
QUARTER MILE UP TO AROUND 5 MILES FOR SITES REPORTING FOG. THE FOG
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING OR SO AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP A BIT.

THE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL START TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS ARE PLACING A BIT
OF QPF ON THE PLATEAU EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT CONTINUED WITH
THE TREND AND KEPT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. BUMPED POPS A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODELS ALSO ARE BRINGING PRECIP IN A BIT EARLIER.
MAIN BANDS OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE IN LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH RAIN TOTALS AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE
IN PLACES.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE
LOW TRAVELS NORTHWARD AND THE MID STATE IS UNDER THE CLEAR SLOT
IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERE PARAMETERS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SINCE
YESTERDAYS FORECAST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE. SPC OUTLOOK STILL HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME ISOLATED CELLS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE WARM SECTOR...HOWEVER THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CELLS
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE.

DRIER WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW AND A COLD FRONT
FROM A GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MOVE IN. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER BY NEXT SATURDAY BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF QPF OVER THE REGION. RAN WITH HIGHER POPS AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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