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Area Forecast Discussion

618
FXUS64 KOHX 271518
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1018 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Latest surface observations show temperatures warming quickly
through the 80s this morning under mostly sunny skies. Nudged
highs up a degree or two for most areas as temperatures should
not have any problem reaching the lower 90s, especially northern
zones. 12Z OHX sounding this morning indicates PWATs are already
around 1.9 inches, and visible satellite imagery shows more
widespread cloud cover associated with an area of 2+ inch PWATS
streaming northward into southern zones. Thus scattered showers
and storms expected to develop yet again this afternoon once
convective temperatures are reached, with highest coverage
generally along/north of I-40. Somewhat stronger deep layer shear
around 20 knots versus yesterday along with slightly cooler mid
level temperatures around -6C will allow for some strong storms
with wet microbursts and brief locally heavy rain this afternoon
as well, but no widespread strong or severe convection is
anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Approaching upper trough and enhanced ingredients ahead expected
to combined for scattered to numerous showers and storms across
the mid-state late today and tonight. Outside of convection today
...conditions largely vfr but deteriorating conditions expected
tonight. Cigs/vsbys likely to drop into MVFR/IFR levels...
especially after midnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  73  83  72  87 /  50  60  80  50  40
Clarksville    90  73  82  71  87 /  50  70  80  50  30
Crossville     87  71  80  69  80 /  50  60  70  60  50
Columbia       90  73  84  71  87 /  40  60  80  50  40
Lawrenceburg   90  73  84  71  87 /  40  60  80  50  40
Waverly        90  72  81  71  87 /  50  70  80  40  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......55/Shamburger
AVIATION........07



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