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Area Forecast Discussion

917
FXUS64 KOHX 291700
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A LOVELY VFR DAY ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD AND SLIGHTLY GUSTY WINDS AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT. LOOK FOR THE GRADIENT
TO RELAX THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AND LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT CKV AND CSV. OTHERWISE, IT`S GOOD FLYING
WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING INTO MIDDLE TN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUE FROM NW TO SE IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT FROM TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS. THESE DISTURBANCES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCT-BKN CU AND MAYBE EVEN A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO. CU NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS A RESULT OF ONE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES HAS DROPPED CIGS AT CSV TO IFR BRIEFLY.
HANDLED IFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

KEPT THE TAFS DRY BUT CONTINUED AFTERNOON CU IN ALL TAF SITES.
NRLY WINDS FROM 8-14 KTS ON AVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED TIL SUNDOWN.
SOME MVFR-IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CKV AND CSV BEYOND
06Z WEDNESDAY BUT LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80
TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SLIDE DOWN TO THE TN VALLEY...BRINGING NEAR- RECORD LOWS BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS AROUND 1 DEGREE ABOVE
THE RECORDS.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY, JULY 30TH INCLUDE:

NASHVILLE 58 DEGS (SET IN 1965)
CROSSVILLE 53 DEGS (SET IN 1965)

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG RIVERS
AND LAKES.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM THE
GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND TO THE GULF
COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER
POPS WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DEEP SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE...BUT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND UNDER THE TROUGH AND BROKEN DAYTIME CLOUDINESS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OUT AS
HEIGHTS RISE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...MORE HUMIDITY...AND VERY LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




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