National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

021
FXUS64 KOHX 241955
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
255 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE CONTINUED TO CLEAR WITH JUST ISOL TO SCT CU CLOUDS
REMAINING. THE DRIER AIR AND STRONG THERMAL TROUGHING WILL EQUATE TO
DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COOLEST
TEMPS WILL OCCUR SAT MORNING WHEN THE SFC HIGH IS AT ITS CLOSEST
PROXIMITY. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN COMMENCE AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING
AND HEIGHT RISES OCCUR. TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.

IN THE EXT FCST...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED TO OUR
WEST...THIS WILL ENABLE A NORTHWEST FLOW TO CONTINUE. DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THE FLOW WILL BECOME APPARENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH OF MIDDLE TN BUT ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...THERE IS A RISK OF CONVECTION
RETURNING TO PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. FOR THE
FORECAST WILL INCLUDE 20-30 PERCENT POPS.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND OVER MIDDLE TN BY MID WEEK.
FURTHERMORE...THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY BRINGING WARMER BUT DRY WEATHER
TO THE AREA. SO...OTHER THAN SUN NT AND MONDAY...THE EXTENDED IS
LOOKING DRY.

VERSUS THE EXT GUIDANCE...WILL SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT TEMPS IN THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED. IN AGREEMENT WITH NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS BY
LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      48  78  52  82 /   0   0  10  10
CLARKSVILLE    46  78  50  83 /   0   0  10  10
CROSSVILLE     42  71  45  77 /   0   0  10  10
COLUMBIA       48  79  51  84 /   0   0  10  10
LAWRENCEBURG   48  80  50  84 /   0   0  10  10
WAVERLY        47  78  51  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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