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Area Forecast Discussion

579
FXUS64 KOHX 251548
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1048 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY UPSTREAM CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
MID-STATE THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPS WARMING NICELY AHEAD.
BOUNDARY HAS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ONLY
EXPECT SCT-BKN STRATA-CU NOW AND THEN AS BOUNDARY PASSES
LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. ONGOING FSCT NEEDS ONLY MINOR
CHANGES...MAINLY TO HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT TRAVERSES
MIDDLE TN. THIS WILL HELP VEER WINDS AROUND TO THE WSW...WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SCT-BKN LOW VFR CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO
THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.
TONIGHT...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LOW CIGS/STRATUS FORMING THOUGH
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG IS MORE LIKELY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WOULD THINK FOG WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY THAN THE LOW STRATUS. HINTED AT BOTH BUT HAVE IFR-MVFR
VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT FOG TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...AND
KEPT A LOW SCATTERED CLOUD MENTIONED IN ALL TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

.RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...

DISCUSSION...

LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MID STATE...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST AREAS WHERE CKV VIS
HAS BEEN AS LOW AS 1/4 SM. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS AND CIRRUS
ARE SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS WILL
LIKELY DISRUPT THE FOG AT LEAST FOR A WHILE. WILL INCLUDE PATCHY
FOG MENTION THROUGH 14Z AREAWIDE...BUT IT COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE
IN SOME AREAS.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND ACROSS THE MID STATE THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY. FOR
TODAY...A TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF A WEAK FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH HIGHS
RISING WELL INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS REACHING THE 50S TO AROUND
60. FRONT WILL ONLY BRING A GLANCING BLOW TONIGHT BEFORE
RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY...WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING AT ALL LEVELS BY MONDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMTH IN OUR CWA...AND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 80 ON SUNDAY AND THE MID 80S BY MONDAY FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...HAVE
FORECAST A RECORD HIGH OF 85 AT NASHVILLE ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD
BEAT THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 84 SET IN 1940. FOR CROSSVILLE...HAVE
GONE WITH A HIGH OF 79 ON MONDAY WHICH WILL NOT QUITE GET TO THE
RECORD OF 81 SET IN 1963.

BY TUESDAY...TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS...FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID STATE BY LATE IN THE
DAY AND EXITING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON
TIMING WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT ARE IN GENERAL FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...AND WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
INCREASING TO LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST HIGHS FOR TUESDAY
COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IF CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. BOTH GLOBAL
MODELS NOW DEPICT A DEEPER TROUGH FORCING FRONT WILL SOUTH OF THE
AREA LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND DUE TO WILD SWINGS IN MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN...BUT VERY
AMPLIFIED JET STREAM SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





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