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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KOHX 281511

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016




With the upper high moving slightly further to the east, along
with some shortwave activity and diurnal support, additional
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms look to develop
this afternoon. Models are hinting that east of I-65 will get more
activity today, and with the convection we have seen the past few
days, went ahead and upped pops a bit for the eastern half of the
mid state. Similar conditions are in place since there hasn`t been
much of an upper level pattern change. Short term models are
showing MUCAPE values in the afternoon around 2000-3500 J/Kg which
is similar to the past few afternoons. So again expecting some
convective development during the early afternoon, and possibly
some outflow boundaries from early convection kicking off other
storms as well. Main threats with stronger storms look to be heavy
rainfall, gusty winds, and possibly some hail if a few storms get
tall enough with strong updrafts.



Patchy fog around Middle Tennessee this morning so will drop terminals
down into mvfr range through about 1330z then bring them up vfr. I
can`t find any real dynamics to kick off thunderstorms today other
than diurnal heating so have included vicinity thunderstorms at
all terminals 20z-01z. Expect some late night fog again tonight.






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