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Area Forecast Discussion

682
FXUS64 KOHX 191926
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
226 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SUNNY AND COOL OCTOBER AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS OVER
THE MID STATE, WITH 100 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...HEADED TOWARD HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THESE CLOUDS SWEEP OFF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY NOON MONDAY. HOWEVER, BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
A BAND OF HIGH 1000-850MB MOISTURE SWEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF COLD AIR
STRATOCU MAY PESTER US INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, AND HAVE GONE WITH
SOME SCT-BKN CLOUDS WORKING THEIR WAY TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
OVERNIGHT.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RUNNING FOR OUR NORTHEAST
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, PULLING RAIN OUT OF THE CLOUDS TOMORROW WILL BE
ABOUT LIKE TRYING TO SQUEEZE BLOOD OUT OF THE PROVERBIAL TURNIP.
DON`T EXPECT STRATOCU TOMORROW NIGHT TO PRODUCE ANY RAIN. SO, HAVE
TAKEN OUT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR THAT PERIOD.

EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SWEEPS ACROSS THE MID-STATE, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL, DRY
AIR AND LOWER SFC DEW POINTS. EXPECT A CHILLY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S, WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING AREAS.

A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS OVER OUR AREA INTO LATE WEEK, WITH LOWS
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LIKELY TO SINK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S, WITH SOME MIDDLE 30S AND PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE OVER OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BOTH MORNINGS.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN SOME 4 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE AN AFTERNOON WARM-UP ENSUES NEXT WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF FORECAST FOR THE LATE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS,
ACCORDING TO WPC, A "LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO," AND HAVE GONE
CLOSER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AND JUST OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD, AND A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. BY NEXT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WE WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS,
WITH NASHVILLE HIGHS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH THE LOWER 70S
AGAIN. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
GIVING US A NICE LONG BREAK FROM THE "POST-SEPTEMBER DRIP" WE
EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS MONTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  68  48  67 /   0  10  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    44  67  45  66 /   0  10  10   0
CROSSVILLE     43  65  46  61 /   0  20  10   0
COLUMBIA       42  70  47  69 /   0  05  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   44  70  47  70 /   0  05  10   0
WAVERLY        45  69  47  69 /   0  05  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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