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Area Forecast Discussion

206
FXUS64 KOHX 251921
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
221 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH A FEW STRONGER
CELLS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN PARTS. HRRR HAS PERFORMED QUITE
WELL TODAY, AND THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, SO
AM SPLITTING TONIGHT`S POP GRID INTO 6-HOUR INCREMENTS, WITH
REDUCED POP`S FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z. NAM SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG WITH THE NEXT WAVE OF
MOISTURE, THEREBY PUSHING THE DRY WEDGE NORTHWARD AND BRINGING
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP`S BACK IN. SPC IS KEEPING THE ENTIRE MID
STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH VERY LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE, THE UPPER PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO A MUCH WEAKER FLOW,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST, VERY
SUMMER-LIKE. WE MAY SEE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
THIS POINT THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO THE POINT THAT
ANY CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING IS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH READINGS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  82  66  86 /  40  70  30  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  83  65  84 /  40  70  30  30
CROSSVILLE     65  76  65  77 /  60  70  70  50
COLUMBIA       66  81  66  86 /  40  80  40  30
LAWRENCEBURG   66  80  65  84 /  40  80  50  40
WAVERLY        67  82  66  85 /  40  80  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

ROSE




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