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Area Forecast Discussion

797
FXUS64 KOHX 252346 AAA
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
646 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

General trend into the weekend is for ML/UL long-wave like pattern
to amplify as west coast trough develops into northern plains closed
low by early Friday. Developing upper ridge somewhat dirty as
moderate moisture remains as bits of weak energy pass. At LLs...high
pressure holds but does show signs of weaken latter part of the
week. Overall...isolated to scattered shwrs/storms are expected to
continue into the weekend. Hard to put finger on exactly which
day will have greater coverage without really any good organized
features. But while pattern is not exactly summer like...is it
similar as most activity is expected in the afternoons/eves as
thermodynamic parameters pushing CAPE 2000-3000 range 18-03z
time-frames each day.

Early Sunday...upper ridge reacts to weak system heading up FL east
coast as well as filling plains upper low. While upper ridging does
hold, it dampens significantly and remains as such into the early
part of next week. Despite weaker ridging, moisture source is
more limited. Thus...isolated activity is expected in large part
Monday-Wednesday...although Tuesday shwrs/strms may be a bit more
numerous.

Temps heading into the next week looking to remain well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KBNA...Moderate to Heavy TSRA will be impacting the terminal
through 01z with IFR/LIFR visibilities expected. Slow improvement
to MVFR conditions and eventual VFR can be expected after 03z.
Not enough confidence to include any BR or VCTS between 12Z-00Z
Thursday.

KCKV and KCSV...Generally VFR Conditions can be expected over the
next 24 hours. -SHRA will decrease in coverage at KCKV by 01z with
low confidence that any precipitation will even make it to KCSV
and impact the terminal. Possible MVFR visibilities at KCKV...although
not enough confidence to forecast occurrence during this
issuance.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Richards
AVIATION........Hurley



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