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Area Forecast Discussion

752
FXUS64 KOHX 050939
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
339 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SHORT TERM...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SINCE ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND ABOUT
AN HOUR AGO WE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 3 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW JUST
NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE NEAR THE KENTUCKY-TENNESSEE LINE. THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN REPORTS UP TO NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW IN MURRAY, KY, JUST
WEST OF STEWART COUNTY. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING, WITH
NORTHERN AREAS PICKING UP MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET AND SOUTHERN AREAS
PICKING UP MAINLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

BASED ON REPORTS SO FAR, MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT RECEIVED AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN.

THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CROSS THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT
2 TO 4 HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THAT MAY FALL AT THE RATE
OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR. DAVIDSON COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 INCHES OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH, TO UP TO AROUND
5 INCHES IN THE JOELTON AREA.

THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER NOON,
HAVING LEFT BEHIND SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM TWO TO
FIVE INCHES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR, TO 2-3 INCHES IN AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HOHENWALD, COLUMBIA AND MURFREESBORO. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, OF COURSE, ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS, FROM FREEZING RAIN, ARE EXPECTED OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL AREAS. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOTAL AROUND A QUARTER INCH, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES, WITH SOME SPOTS NEAR THE SNOW-PACKED
KENTUCKY BORDER LIKELY TO SEE SOME READINGS CLOSE TO ZERO. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND HIGHLAND RIM, TO THE LOWER 30S AROUND NASHVILLE,
AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FURTHER SOUTH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS FINALLY BRING SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE
MID STATE ON FRIDAY, BUT BY "WARM" WE MEAN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

LONG TERM...WARMING TREND LOOKS TO HOLD STRONG AFTER
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY GETTING TO THE 60S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET...WITH
SUBTLE TROUGHS SLIDING THROUGH WEAK RIDGING/ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
QPF FROM THE SHORTWAVES...SO DIDNT GET TOO GENEROUS WITH POPS IN
THE EXTENDED. HAVE SCHC/CHC POPS FROM WED ONWARD AS EITHER THE GFS
OR ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP OVER THE REGION DURING THAT TIME. FOR
NOW...850 MB TEMPS STAY ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK
SO IT APPEARS AS WE WILL AVOID ANOTHER ROUND OF FROZEN/MIXED
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      26  10  33  18 /  60  05  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    24   3  26  15 /  40  05  05  05
CROSSVILLE     26  12  35  21 /  80  10  05  10
COLUMBIA       25  10  35  19 /  70  05  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   29  12  38  23 /  70  05  05  10
WAVERLY        24   7  29  16 /  50  05  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TNZ008>011-027>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

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