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Area Forecast Discussion

980
FXUS64 KOHX 312006
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
306 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WARM BUT NICE DAY ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE NOT OVERLY OPPRESSIVE LOW TO MID
60S. RADAR HAS SHOWN A FEW SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS ON AND NEAR THE
PLATEAU AT TIMES BUT NOTHING ELSEWHERE. A DRY PATTERN WITH HOTTER
AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A H5
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. MODELS CONSENSUS
OF HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S SEEMS REASONABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER GREATLY ON
HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EVOLVE...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A
SEEMINGLY UNREASONABLE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EURO WHICH SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVER THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND...MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL BECOME SITUATED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. TEMPS LOOK TO
ONLY LOWER SLIGHTLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN STOUT AROUND
591DM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ADVECT BACK THROUGH THE
CWA WILL WARRANT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  92  69  92 /   0  10   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    66  90  67  91 /   0  10   0  10
CROSSVILLE     64  85  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
COLUMBIA       66  91  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0  10
WAVERLY        67  90  68  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER



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