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Area Forecast Discussion

290
FXUS64 KOHX 270149
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
849 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue
overnight ahead of the approaching cold front. The current run of
the HRRR has the fastest advancement of convection ahead of the
cold front with more widespread activity moving into the northwest
zones by 09Z-12Z or so. Model consensus has widespread showers
and thunderstorms moving into TN after 12Z and during the morning
hours. The majority of the mid state will see the best chances for
showers and thunderstorms from the late morning through the
afternoon tomorrow. Other than some minor tweaks to the overnight
forecast and matching current obs trends, forecast looks good.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mostly VFR conditions at mid-state terminals for this cycle.
Biggest question is going to be the passage of a cold front
tomorrow and its eventually effects on each terminal. Models
definitely not in agreement on whether we`re even going to see
rain overnight, however, by 15-16Z it look like all terminals will
be dealing with it. For now, will VCTS the activity to show timing
and try to prevail the TS for the next TAF cycle after a couple
more model runs.

Winds will remain light to calm overnight. Winds will shift to the
north by late morning as the front passes, but not expecting much
in the way of gusts. Should remain light as the direction changes.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Unger



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