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Area Forecast Discussion

388
FXUS64 KOHX 270602 AAD
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1202 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PER QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM...TEMPO PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WITH MINIMAL
VSBY IMPACTS EXPECTED CKV/BNA. ORAGRAPHIC INFLUENCES/BEST LIFTING MECHANISMS
AROUND OR N OF CSV THRU 27/15Z...WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL RATE RESULTING IN MVFR
VSBYS BUT OVERALL ICING IMPACTS MINIMAL...AS TEMPO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
TRANSITION INTO PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS. CEILINGS RANGING FROM MVFR CKV TO IFR
CSV THRU AT LEAST 27/15Z. SFC GUSTS TO 20KTS CKV/BNA TO 30KTS CSV THRU 27/11Z
PER SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE. INFLUENCES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE GENERALLY
E OF MID STATE AFTER 27/18Z...AND WITH DRY NWLY FLOW AND BUILDING RIDGING
INFLUENCES EXPECTED...CEILING EROSIONS EXPECTED DURING THE 27/18Z W TO AROUND
28/00Z E WITH NWLY SFC WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 843 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF CUTTING DOWN POPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...850 MB MOISTURE
STILL ATTEMPTS TO HANG ON BACK TO THE TN RIVER THROUGH 12Z. MODELS
DO PICK UP ON TRACE AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR WEST LATE. OTW...NO CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY. STILL LOOKING AT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR THE
ADVISORY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. AROUND AN INCH IS STILL
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 628 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE NEAREST SUB FREEZING WET BULB
TEMPS ARE UP IN SRN IL. CURRENT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IS ACROSS THAT SRN IL AREA. NOW THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK OUR WAY
BUT THE CLOSED CENTER WILL STAY NORTH OF THE MID STATE.
THUS...STILL EXPECTING A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BUT THE LATEST
WPC AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU AS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW ACCUM.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PULL THE PLUG ON ANY OF THE SOUTHERN
ADVISORY AREAS AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE LOW TO PERHAPS
TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. FURTHERMORE...THE PLATEAU CAN BE A
STRANGE ANIMAL AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF ACCUM SEEM TO COME IN MORE
OFTEN THAN NOT.

SO FOR THE UPDATE...WILL MOVE BACK THE TIMING OF THE SNOW ONSET BY
A FEW HOURS ONLY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WAR RENT CHANGING THE ADVISORY
VALID TIME. ALSO...WILL TREND DOWN THE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 206 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING RAIN INITIALLY
THIS EVENING TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE...THEN RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH SNOW ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER AND OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
DURING THE LATE EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AROUND
MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
ACCUMULATE FIRST ON GRASSY AREAS AND THEN ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IN NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE PLATEAU AS A
STRONG SHOT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY RACES ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA
WITH THE UPPER CUMBERLAND BEING FAVORED. MAIN SNOW IMPACTS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL BE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. AREAS IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA COULD SEE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW
WITH FLURRIES SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 30S WITH SOME READINGS JUST BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE
PLATEAU. CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PULL EAST QUICKLY THANKSGIVING MORNING
BUT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ALONG THE PLATEAU UNTIL NOON IS
POSSIBLE. 1032 MBAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WORKS INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD
RETURN FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY AND 60S
BY SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN IS ACTIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES JUST ABOUT EACH DAY.

CLIMATE...
THE LAST TIME SNOW FELL ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE TENNESSEE WAS
BACK ON NOVEMBER 23RD 1972 WHEN A TRACE OF SNOW OCCURRED. THE LAST
TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL WAS BACK IN 1950 ON NOVEMBER 24TH WHEN
2.0 INCHES WAS MEASURED WHICH IS ALSO THE LARGEST SNOWFALL EVER ON
THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. OTHER THANKSGIVINGS WITH MEASURABLE
SNOW IS NOVEMBER 24TH 1938 WHEN 1.5 INCHES FEEL AND ON NOVEMBER
26TH 1936 WHEN 1.0 INCHES FELL. ONLY THREE TIMES HAS MEASURABLE
SNOW FALLEN ON THANKSGIVING IN NASHVILLE. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW
HAVE OCCURRED 8 TIMES.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ009>011-
031>034-065-066-080.

&&
$$
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