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Area Forecast Discussion

646
FXUS64 KOHX 170257
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
957 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE A TAD WARMER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST IN THE 12Z RUNS. ALTHOUGH...HOURLY GRIDS
ARE ON TRACK WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SO LEFT THE FROST ADVISORY
AND FREEZE WARNING UNEDITED. STILL BELIEVE LOW LYING AREAS COULD
REACH FREEZING OVERNIGHT.

ONLY GRID CHANGES WERE IN WX AND SKY. REMOVED THE PATCHY FROST
WORDING IN THE AREAS OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY FOR FORECAST
CONSISTENCY. ALSO INCLUDED SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD FOR
NEXT 12 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...

00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

VFR. SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOME SCT
CUMULUS AROUND 3500-4000 FT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY. NO PRECIP OR FOG CONCERNS.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF COLD TEMPERATURES BEFORE RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DELIVER WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE ISN`T
A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
SHOWING UP ON THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, SO POP`S WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
MODEST INSTABILITY THIS TIME, SO WE`LL INCLUDE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST, ALTHOUGH THE SPC HAS NO SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THROUGH DAY 8.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$

TB12





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