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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KOHX 301109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
609 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016




Summer-like wx will continue for today, Memorial Day, with highs
in the 80s to near 90. The area will remain under an upper level
ridge like yesterday, but low level winds will be coming out of
the north today. So, temps may be a degree or 2 cooler, and
humidity levels will drop. Afternoon dew points are expected to
dip into the tolerable mid 50s, thanks to drier air from the north
and deep vertical mixing. We will keep the forecast rain free for
most of the Mid State, but a 20 pop will be included for the
higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau where models show
greater instability and some weak convergence.

Tonight will be mainly clear with lows in the 60s. Tuesday will be
similar to today, with mainly sunny skies. Highs will creep up a
degree or 2 again as the upper ridge builds slightly. Humidity
levels will remain tolerable, especially considering the very warm

By Wednesday, a trough axis will be advancing toward the Ms
Valley. Warm south flow ahead of this feature will boost temps
another degree or 2 and humidity levels will rise. Many locations
will top out in the lower 90s Wednesday with a chance for
afternoon thunderstorms.

The remainder of the work week looks unsettled and not quite as
warm, as the trough and an associated surface front move in, slow
down, and become oriented more west to east. There will be a good
chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. We do
not expect severe storms at this time.

The front will gradually work southward through the weekend as a
large scale upper trough develops over the region. This will
bring a cooling and drying trend into early next week. Temperatures
will trend toward normal (low 60s/low 80s).



VFR conditions thru 31/12Z. High pressure influences surface along
with quasi ridging surface aloft, with passing patches of bkn
cirrus, will be in store for the mid state`s terminals on average
thru 31/12Z. Due to orographic diurnal heating affects, some sct
cu may form CSV 30/17Z-31/02Z. There might be enough diurnal
driven instability and lift near CSV to support some iso
shwrs/tstms forming too, but not enough development/location
certainty to mention in CSV TAF. SFC high pressure influences
centered to our north will result in nrly sfc winds 5-8kts.






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