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Area Forecast Discussion

053
FXUS64 KOHX 010817
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
317 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER QUIET EARLY MORNING WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS MID
TN. SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CONTINUED COOLER AND DRIER
THAN USUAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL CHARTS SHOWED A
TROUGH AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES...DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TO
THE GULF COAST. SOME SHORTWAVES WERE MOVING AROUND THIS
TROUGH...WITH POCKETS OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAINFALL FOCUSED WELL
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MID TN.

FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM.
THE RESULT WILL BE A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS.
RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST. SO...POPS
WILL BE MAINLY 20 PERCENT...WITH SOME 30-40 POPS OVER OUR SOUTH
AND EAST COUNTIES. UNFORTUNATELY...THE DRIER AREAS OF MID TN OVER
THE NORTH MAY GET NOTHING AT ALL OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MID TN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH AT BEST.

INTO NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
UPWARD AGAIN...INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS BY MIDWEEK.
FORTUNATELY...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE TOLERABLE BY AUGUST STANDARDS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
MONITORING OBS FOR POSSIBLE IFR VIS AT CKV AND CSV LATE DUE TO
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S DEWPOINTS LIGHT WIND PROFILES. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS STILL RUNNING AROUND 8-10 DEGREES...BUT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IN
THE SHORT-RANGE SHOWS RH FIELDS ABOVE 500MB DRYING BELOW 30% AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. ONLY LOW-MID LEVEL DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT CSV ON OCCASION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      88  65  89  66 /  10  10  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    88  62  89  64 /  10  10  20  05
CROSSVILLE     81  63  82  62 /  30  20  40  20
COLUMBIA       86  65  88  66 /  10  10  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   85  65  87  67 /  20  20  30  10
WAVERLY        87  63  88  65 /  10  10  20  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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