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Area Forecast Discussion

964
FXUS64 KOHX 041838 AAB
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 05/18Z. VARIABLE CEILINGS TO CEILING EROSIONS
EXPECTED THRU 05/18Z. WITH CONVECTION INITIATION TIMING AND ASSOCIATED
AREAL COVERAGE HARD TO DEFINITIVELY PINPOINT...ADDRESSED CONVECTION
POTENTIAL WITH VCTS REMARKS. BELIEVE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN
05/06Z-05/15Z...AND WILL ADDRESS WITH LIGHT SHWRS CSV...MODERATE SHWRS
BNA...TO MODERATE SHWRS CSV...PER ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW PROMIMITY. FOG FORMATION MAY REDUCE VSYBS CKV/CSV TO
MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS RESPECTIVELY. MAYBE AN OVERALL DECREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION 05/16Z-05/18Z...BUT VCTS REMARKS MOST APPROPRIATE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 651 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NE OKLAHOMA COMBINED WITH A SFC
BOUNDARY NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY AND TONIGHT. STUCK WITH MOSTLY VCTS
MENTION AFTER THIS MORNING`S BR AND MVFR CIGS BURN OFF. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA HOWEVER WILL BE AFTER 00Z FOR CSV AND POSSIBLY BNA
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE GENERATES A LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LIKELY DROPPING CSV CONDITIONS
DOWN TO MVFR BRIEFLY. KEPT CSV VCTS AND CB MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL
THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

ONGOING SHOWERS WEST TO EAST FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE THROUGH THE
PLATEAU INTO EAST TENNESSEE. ANY SHOWERS OR TSTORMS DURING THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SCATTERED. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD AND STALL ALONG
THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER DURING THE DAY TODAY AS MID STATE
REMAINS IN A VERY MOISTURE LADEN TROPOSPHERE. AT SOME POINT DURING
THE DAY MOST LIKELY AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE A LINE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER WITH STORMS
REMAINING GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAY BE SLOW
MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE (SHOWS UP GOOD IN WATER VAPOR) OVER
EASTERN KANSAS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO DIG DOWN THROUGH
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BEGIN TO WORK NORTHWARD AND INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND AREAS ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS EVENING...THEN DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE
GETS SHUNTED EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ALONG THE
PLATEAU.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH UPPER PATTERN FINALLY BECOMING ZONAL ABOUT THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY BUT WARM
UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY INTO SATURDAY (BNA 89/68).

CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR JULY 4TH IN NASHVILLE IS 103 DEGREES IN
2012. RECORD LOW IS 55 DEGREES IN 1968. RECORD CALENDAR DAY RAINFALL
IS 2.25 INCHES IN 1885. HIGHEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 76
DEGREES IN 1921.

IN JULY 2012...NASHVILLE BROKE A STRING OF FOUR CONSECUTIVE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT BEGAN ON JULY 4TH.

JULY 4TH 2012...103...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1948
JULY 5TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 101 IN 1954
JULY 6TH 2012...105...PREVIOUS RECORD 100 IN 1874
JULY 7TH 2012...104...PREVIOUS RECORD 102 IN 1954

THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR JULY IN NASHVILLE IS 107 DEGREES
SET BACK ON JULY 27TH AND 28TH 1952.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      81  69  82  68 /  60  50  40  20
CLARKSVILLE    81  69  83  69 /  30  20  30  10
CROSSVILLE     76  67  77  67 /  70  60  70  40
COLUMBIA       81  69  82  68 /  60  60  50  20
LAWRENCEBURG   80  69  81  69 /  70  60  50  20
WAVERLY        80  69  82  69 /  40  30  30  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ007>011-
027>034-062>066-075-077>080.
&&
$$
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