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Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS64 KOHX 252312
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
512 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND ACROSS
NRN FLA TONIGHT. THE STORM SYSTEM IS RATHER LARGE IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CLOUDINESS EXTENDS TO THE
MS RIVER. STILL LOOKING AT LOW CHANCES FOR A RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
SNOW MIX LATE TONIGHT FOR THE PLATEAU. HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIP EAST OF THE
MID STATE. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN FOR NOW.

ONLY CHANGE TO THE FCST WILL BE TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY STILL BE A TAD TOO HIGH. I MAY ADDRESS THAT
LATER THIS EVENING.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEGUN SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
PLUMMETING TONIGHT IN THE DRY AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...BUT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO 30S ELSEWHERE SEEM FAIRLY REASONABLE.
AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...WESTERN
EDGE OF ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP SHIELD MAY BRUSH THE PLATEAU
COUNTIES WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CSV SHOW
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE WARM SO ANY PRECIP WOULD
BE LIGHT RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE TONIGHT WHEN TEMPS COULD COOL
ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT ANY SNOW WOULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEPICT A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID STATE BY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
EXITING THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 0.25 INCHES...WILL RAISE POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AREAWIDE AS MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO SHOW WARM
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AS WELL AS SHALLOW MOISTURE GENERALLY
CONFINED TO BELOW 600MB...SO ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS. HOWEVER...BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THERMO PROFILES COOL
ENOUGH ON THE PLATEAU FOR A POTENTIAL LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SINCE PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE QUITE LIGHT...MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY SHALLOW...AND SURFACE TEMPS/WET BULB ZERO TEMPS REMAIN
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW IF ANY LOOKS
POSSIBLE AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDE A FEW TENTHS IN GRIDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...A COLD THANKSGIVING IS IN
STORE WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING COLDER SHOWING HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 30S AND INTO THE 40S. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE-TYPE LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE THANKSGIVING MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION...BUT NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR ALL
ZONES. HOWEVER...A BIG WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS QUICKLY RISING INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TAKING SHAPE TO OUR NORTHWEST NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER. CONTINUED WAA AND NEARBY BOUNDARY WILL PROMPT LOW POPS EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS ONLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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