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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KOHX 281113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
613 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016




The summerlike pattern continues... Sunday looks like more of the
same with the upper high still centered to the east of the area.
Diurnal storms will be around again today. Models, including the
tail end of HRRR runs, are favoring the plateau area. Looking at
model soundings, I would not be surprised to see a couple of strong
storms over that way. Soundings are showing some dry air in the
mid levels and effective bulk shear values between 5 and 15 kts.
As storms collapse, a couple of localized microbursts will be
possible. Activity should die begin to die off shortly after
sunset as CAPE falls off.

For Monday and Tuesday, we will still be under the influence of the
upper high. Diurnal activity will be a possibility but model
consensus shows less coverage. By Wednesday, a central US upper
ridge begins to take shape and our upper flow transitions to
northwesterly. This could allow for a little more coverage in
diurnal activity on Wednesday with subtle disturbances riding the
NW flow. By Friday, models show Middle TN being on the southern
fringe of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Some drier
air looks like it will filter in by Friday and into Saturday.

Temperatures still look warm for the forecast period with highs
around 90 or above and lows mainly in the 70s for the beginning and
middle of the work week. By the end of the work week highs look like
they will fall to the mid to upper 80s and lows will be in the 60s
instead of 70s.

I am still watching a tropical wave located north of Cuba. Looking
at spaghetti plots, some models want to bring it into the gulf and
then steer it back into western FL. Some still want to bring it
closer toward the FL panhandle including the operational Euro. It
blows the storm up and brings it to land south of Tallahassee. If
this solution came to be, we would be influenced by outer subsidence
and dry conditions for Friday into the weekend. I`m still not
putting much stock in a single solution as models have been all over
the place (in location and intensity) with this system over the
last couple of days.



Patchy fog around Middle Tennessee this morning so will drop terminals
down into mvfr range through about 1330z then bring them up vfr. I
can`t find any real dynamics to kick off thunderstorms today other
than diurnal heating so have included vicinity thunderstorms at
all terminals 20z-01z. Expect some late night fog again tonight.






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