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Area Forecast Discussion

107
FXUS64 KOHX 061643
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1143 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET AND COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE WITH CURRENT TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
TODAY...BUT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET
INTO THE LOW 70S. MODELS ARE SHOWING 850MB TEMPS FROM 0C-4C OVER
THE AREA...SO WONT EXPECT ANY HELP WITH MIXING TO WARM UP TEMPS
MUCH MORE THAN THE LOW 70S. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE
CALMING DOWN A BIT AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY BY
MIDNIGHT.

WITH THE UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST THEN NORTH ALONG THE
COAST...UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION. THIS WILL
HELP WARM UP TEMPS QUITE A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MOST OF THE
MID STATE SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWED A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE EARLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH LOOKED TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MODELS HAVE SINCE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
SHORTWAVE AND THUS THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE MID STATE. KEPT IN
MENTION FOR THE NORTHEAST ZONES FOR NOW ON SUNDAY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN ON
MONDAY...AND WILL BEGIN A SERIES OF TROUGHS THAT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT CHC POPS EXIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A FEW
TIMES WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBILITIES. BUT WITH THE
UPPER LOWS TRACKING FURTHER NORTH AND THE BEST INGREDIENTS OFF TO
THE WEST...ITS STILL DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE MID STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE 0-6KM SHEAR
STILL IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. TUESDAY AFTERNOON HAS SOME STRONGER
SHEAR...SO WILL SEE IF THE LONG TERM MODELS KEEP THAT SOLUTION
GOING TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREA DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 07/18Z.

SFC WINDS WILL BE A TAD GUSTY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, BLOWING
OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND OUT OF THE WEST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................08



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