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Area Forecast Discussion

737
FXUS64 KOHX 200115
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
715 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

00Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWS ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY WITH A PWAT OF 0.49 INCHES...ALTHOUGH COLUMN HAS
MOISTENED SOMEWHAT SINCE 12Z. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MS/AL...BUT SURFACE OBS INDICATE NO PRECIP IS
REACHING THE GROUND NORTH OF A TUPELO TO HUNTSVILLE LINE DUE TO
DRIER ATMOSPHERE UP THIS WAY. IN ADDITION...ALL LATEST 12Z/18Z
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM/HRRR KEEPS MAJORITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MID STATE TONIGHT.
THUS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH AND CHANCE POPS SOUTH/PLATEAU. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WOULD LIKELY START AS OR
TRANSITION TO SNOW QUICKLY...BUT WILL KEEP RAIN/SNOW MIX MENTION
FOR THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS IN THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND OVERNIGHT BUT LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.
TWEAKED LOW TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS UP SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS
DUE TO LATEST OBS AND CLOUD COVER...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS OK
ATTM.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
SYSTEM DOWN ALONG GULF COAST WILL WILL SPREAD RAIN NORTHWARD TONIGHT
WITH MID STATE ON NORTHERN FRINGE...NOT CONFIDENT WE ARE GOING TO
SEE MUCH OVER NORTH HALF ESPECIALLY AT CLARKSVILLE AND NASHVILLE.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH A QUICK GLANCE AT THE 00Z OHX
RAOB SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE THAT WILL
NEED TO MOISTEN UP BEFORE PRECIP WILL HIT THE GROUND. TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT WET BULBING THINK PROFILE WILL COOL DOWN BELOW ZERO
CELSIUS EXCEPT IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND NEAR SURFACE WHERE TEMPS WILL
LIKELY HOVER AROUND FREEZING. THIS SAID WE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIP
AT CLARKSVILLE OR NASHVILLE WITH CROSSVILLE HAVING THE BETTER
CHANCE OF SEEING A LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MIX 06Z. SYSTEM EXITS
QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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