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Area Forecast Discussion

433
FXUS64 KOHX 072049
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
249 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PLATEAU FROM NOON MONDAY UNTIL 6 PM CST
TUESDAY. MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE COMING QUICKLY TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS TODAY DROPS
DOWN AND MOVES INTO THE MID STATE TONIGHT. INITIAL FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT DROPPING TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY THIS TIME ON
MONDAY AND IT GETS COLDER AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ON MONDAY
AND THIS IS THE ONE WITH BONE CHILLING AIR BEHIND IT. ANY PRECIP
TONIGHT WILL START OUT AS RAIN THEN BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH
HALF. SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL BE
OFF AND ON. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE ADVISORY AREA
BUT IT WON`T ALL COME AT ONE TIME...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF
THE PLATEAU MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEK AND THAT MEANS COLD TEMPS FOR
THE MID STATE. SO BUNDLE UP!

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. AFTER THAT, EXPECT A
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING LOWERING CIGS, ALONG
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 09Z, WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY
DEVELOPING AT CSV. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OCCASIONAL
IFR VSBYS IN SN- COULD DEVELOP AT BNA AND CSV AFTER 14Z, AND INTO
THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL. THEREFORE, PILOTS ARE
ADVISED TO REMAIN ABREAST OF THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS
AT MIDDLE TN TERMINALS ON MONDAY, AS THIS WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL
DEVELOPS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      37  40  24  31  18 /  50  60  40  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    35  37  22  29  16 /  50  50  50  20   0
CROSSVILLE     33  37  21  26  14 /  50  70  70  60  20
COLUMBIA       36  40  24  31  18 /  40  40  40  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   36  40  24  31  19 /  30  40  40  20  10
WAVERLY        35  38  23  30  18 /  40  50  50  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DE KALB-FENTRESS-GRUNDY-JACKSON-OVERTON-PICKETT-
PUTNAM-VAN BUREN-WARREN-WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........19
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD



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