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Area Forecast Discussion

056
FXUS64 KOHX 050857
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
357 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW EXITS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
UNTIL THEN...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL ALLOW A NICE BREAK IN THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE LIKELY TO YES IT`S DEFINITELY GOING TO
RAIN CATEGORY FOR TODAY...TONIGHT...AND THURSDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY CONCERNING IN
THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
NUISANCE FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THINK THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ON THURSDAY...SO WILL REVISIT THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH POTENTIAL WITH LATER FORECAST UPDATES. AS FAR AS
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...THINK THE EARLY TIMING OF THE STORMS
WILL LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW
TOO. ULTIMATELY, THE BIGGEST HAZARDS WOULD BE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST AREA GETS CAUGHT IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE MASSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS TEXAS. IN FACT...BE THANKFUL THIS AREA
ISN`T CAUGHT UNDER THAT HIGH AS TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY BE IN THE
100S...WHILE MIDDLE TENNESSEE SITS AT A "RELATIVELY COOL" LOW TO
MID 90S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY/NIGHT BUT TIMING THESE COMPLEXES WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT.

BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME INTO PLAY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN
AUGUST COLD FRONT (YES, YOU READ THAT RIGHT) COMES INTO PLAY. SO
FAR...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP WATCHING OR MAYBE A
BELIEVE IT WHEN WE SEE IT SINCE IT IS AUGUST. IF THIS SCENARIO
PLAYS OUT...EXPECT RATHER COMFORTABLE AND EXTREMELY NICE WEATHER
FOR EARLY AUGUST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      87  71  84  68 /  80  80  90  40
CLARKSVILLE    84  70  83  67 /  80  80  80  20
CROSSVILLE     88  69  80  65 /  40  60  90  50
COLUMBIA       89  69  86  68 /  60  70  90  30
LAWRENCEBURG   89  70  85  69 /  60  70  80  30
WAVERLY        85  71  84  68 /  80  80  80  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

HURLEY



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