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Area Forecast Discussion

889
FXUS64 KOHX 270845
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
345 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING IN CONTROL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE IS LARGE ENOUGH TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER AND A LIGHT NE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD
NRN FL WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ACROSS TN. ALL OF THIS RIDGING
WILL ACT TO IMPEDE ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INFLUENCE. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR TODAY. BUT...WE
DO SEE AN INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ON THU AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
ACROSS THE NORTH ONLY. SO...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. FURTHERMORE...THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME AFT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE KY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN DICTATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE.
THEREFORE...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AS WELL. WILL LEAN TOWARD ISC AND
CURRENT GRIDS FOR A FINAL DECISION.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S...LOWS LOWER 70S...COOLER PLATEAU.

IN THE EXT FCST...SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NATIONS INTERIOR
THIS WEEKEND. WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL THEN EVOLVE INTO A MORE UNIFORM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS BACK
ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE AND
NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE MID STATE...CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE GFS ACTUALLY EMPHASIZES AN UPSTREAM
IMPULSE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY FOR SAT NT. SO...ALL IN ALL... POPS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...W-E UPPER RIDGING WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH WITH POPS ON THE DOWNSWING.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL VALUES TO CONTINUE EVEN THOUGH
RIDGING BACKS OFF DURING THE SAT THROUGH MON PERIOD. HEIGHTS
REMAIN ON THE ELEVATED SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      92  72  94  72 /  05  05  20  05
CLARKSVILLE    93  69  94  69 /  10  05  20  10
CROSSVILLE     86  65  89  67 /  05   0  20  05
COLUMBIA       92  70  94  70 /   0  05  10  05
LAWRENCEBURG   92  66  94  67 /   0  05  10  05
WAVERLY        93  69  94  69 /  10  05  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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