National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

384
FXUS64 KOHX 191855
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
155 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION EAST OF I-65 REALLY STARTING TO BACK-
BUILD THE LAST FEW VOLUME SCANS, AND MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES MUCH LONGER.
THE 18Z LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA SHOWS CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION,
WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -11.6 AND CAPE OF 4012 J/KG. HOWEVER, THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE BEING OBSERVED IN AREAS FARTHER WEST
WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR DIRECT SUN. BUT DRIER AIR
PENETRATING FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO GREATLY REDUCED THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. LOOK FOR THE DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE
WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD SO THAT ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHOULD BE
RAIN-FREE LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WILL
APPROACH 90 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS, JUST IN TIME FOR THE NEXT
ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
A SECOND E-W ORIENTED FRONT DROPPING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. SPC IS KEEPING ITS SEVERE
WEATHER RISK AREAS WEST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH DAY 3, WITH
NOTHING SHOWING UP IN THEIR EXTENDED OUTLOOK, EITHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      68  89  69  89 /  05  10  05  30
CLARKSVILLE    67  88  68  87 /  05  10  10  40
CROSSVILLE     62  84  64  84 /  20  10  10  20
COLUMBIA       68  89  69  90 /  10  05  05  30
LAWRENCEBURG   67  89  67  89 /  05  05  05  20
WAVERLY        68  89  69  88 /  10  05  05  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ROSE