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Area Forecast Discussion

161
FXUS64 KOHX 221947
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
247 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A TYPICALLY WARM AND HUMID JULY DAY IN MID
TN...WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS NEAR 70. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WAS CREATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...BUT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WAS STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF MID TN THANKS TO AN
UPPER RIDGE SURROUNDING THE GULF COAST LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY QUIET WX WILL PERSIST. SOME CLOUDS AND BRIEF
SHOWERS WILL STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH AT TIMES...AFFECTING MAINLY
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH A FEW PATCHES OF LATE NIGHT FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MID TN
WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MODERATELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BE PUSHING IN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY...ELEVATED HEIGHTS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...SO MAX HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY TO NEAR 90
FRIDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 90S SATURDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
WILL BE ON THE WAY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SOME EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A POSSIBLE MCS. A
DECENT SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE... WITH DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...

AS NOTED IN MORNING UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP
TODAY ON THE PLATEAU LIKELY DUE TO SOME SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. NEVERTHELESS...WILL INCLUDE VCSH MENTION AT CSV FOR
POTENTIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
ALL AIRPORTS. MVFR VIS DUE TO PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT
CKV/CSV.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  92  69  85 /  10  50  70  30
CLARKSVILLE    69  91  65  85 /  10  50  50  20
CROSSVILLE     67  87  67  82 /  20  50  60  50
COLUMBIA       68  92  70  86 /  20  40  70  30
LAWRENCEBURG   68  91  70  85 /  20  40  70  30
WAVERLY        69  91  67  85 /  10  50  50  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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