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Area Forecast Discussion

919
FXUS64 KOHX 191129
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
629 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS PUSHES INTO TN. NNE
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO 20KT AT TIMES TODAY...SETTLING TO LESS THAN
5KT TONIGHT.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA STILL
THROWING CIRRUS NORTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER,
NORTHERN EDGE OF ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD REMAINS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
OUR AREA AND SHOULD PULL FURTHER AWAY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 3 AM
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.

LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY COMING UP, ALBEIT A BIT BREEZY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS
NICE AS WELL, WITH WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS, AND HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE SUNDAY, PUTTING US IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND VULNERABLE TO INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. BY SUNRISE MONDAY, EXPECT BKN CLOUDS OVER
AT LEAST THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR FA, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AREA-WIDE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP-UP MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN COMES MONDAY NIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST.
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS OVER NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z TUESDAY,
AND THEN PUSH TO OFF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON.

AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MODEST, RANGING MAINLY FROM AROUND A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH. LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE ALSO MODEST WITH THE MON/TUE
EVENT, MEANING THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL.

LONG TERM...AFTER SEVERAL WARM, DRY DAYS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS MAY BE A BIT BETTER BY THEN AND ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. IN ADDITION, CAPES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
BE BIT HEALTHIER WITH THE LATE WEEK EVENT (IE, AROUND 1000 J/KG
OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS).

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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