National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

232
FXUS64 KOHX 032021
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
221 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT SUNNY SKIES TO
MUCH OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS WERE FINALLY
MOVING OFF THE PLATEAU. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. WE WILL SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT...EVEN AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE NW.

ON MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE PLAINS STATES. THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S. IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LIFT...BUT LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN TOO
DRY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND.

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE ENOUGH AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WITH SCATTERED STORMS
WILL CONTINUE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR AND MOISTURE WITH THE TRAILING UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BY TUESDAY EVENING...THEN A
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO WARM
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE SNOW...AND MODESTLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
WITH THE PRECIP. STILL...A QUICK DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND
PERHAPS A SLUSHY HALF INCH FOR THE FAVORED PLATEAU AREAS. CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY TO HANG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ONGOING AND ALL MODELS SHOWING GREATER
THAN 80 PERCENT RH REMAINING WITHIN THE 1000-850 MB COLUMN. HIGHS
WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HEIGHTS RISE DRAMATICALLY. THIS WILL MEAN FAIR WX WITH A NICE
WARMING TREND. HIGHS SHOULD REACH ABOUT 60 FRIDAY...AND WELL INTO
THE 60S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK...PROJECTIONS
INDICATE WE WILL SLIP BACK INTO A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      26  55  47  56 /   0  10  80  70
CLARKSVILLE    25  55  45  52 /  05  10  80  60
CROSSVILLE     20  48  41  52 /   0  10  80  90
COLUMBIA       26  57  48  57 /   0  10  80  60
LAWRENCEBURG   26  58  48  57 /   0  10  80  60
WAVERLY        27  57  47  54 /  05  10  90  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$