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Area Forecast Discussion

519
FXUS64 KOHX 252012
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
312 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS SO FAR ACROSS MIDDLE TN...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
PRETTY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z RAOB AT BNA SHOWS A
LITTLE OVER 1300 J/KG WITH VERY STRONG 70 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR.
SOUNDING IS DRIER THAN MODELS HAD SUGGESTED...WITH PWAT VALUES AT
0.68 INCHES. CAP IS ALSO EVIDENT...SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH THIS
AFTERNOON AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SPC HAD DOWNGRADED THE SEVERE
OUTLOOK FROM THE ENHANCED/SLIGHT TO A SLIGHT/MARGINAL THIS
MORNING...AND THAT LOOKS TO BE THE RIGHT CALL. SHORT TERM MODELS
STARTED HINTING AT THE LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PER
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUNS WITH THE LACK OF QPF
SIGNATURES ACROSS THE CWA AND FURTHER PROGRESSION OF THE LOW/WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTH. SEVERE CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE HOWEVER
SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF
SHEAR...AND JUST NEED A TRIGGER TO GET A FEW ISOLATED CELLS GOING.
MOST LIKELY SOLUTION WILL BE CELLS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BORDER
INTO POSSIBLY A SMALL LINEAR FEATURE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL AND
CONTINUING INTO THE CWA FOR AN AREA MAINLY NORTH OF I40 AND EAST
OF I24. SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK A BIT CLOSER TO THE TN/KY
BORDER WITH THE STALLED WARM FRONT...HOWEVER ITS STILL JUST A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY ENOUGH TO
REALIZE THE INSTABILITY. KEPT SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS FOR THE
NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z AND ENDING AT 06Z WHERE POTENTIAL IS
HIGHEST...EVEN THOUGH THE POTENTIAL MAY END SOONER AROUND 03Z FOR
MOST OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA AFTER SUNSET.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
ON SUNDAY...AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL. CHANCES FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING BUT MODELS NOW WANT TO END PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND START CLEARING OUT BY THE EVENING FROM NW TO SE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW KEEPS RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND AFTER THURSDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK
TO BRING A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT DOESNT LOOK TO IMPACT THE CWA. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      57  66  45  67 /  30  20  05  05
CLARKSVILLE    52  64  42  64 /  30  10  05  05
CROSSVILLE     56  63  42  61 /  50  30  10  05
COLUMBIA       57  67  43  67 /  30  10  05  05
LAWRENCEBURG   58  68  46  66 /  30  10  05  05
WAVERLY        57  65  45  66 /  30  10  05  05

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BARNWELL





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