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Area Forecast Discussion

611
FXUS64 KOHX 262019
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
319 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

late afternoon...For the current afternoon period, will increase
pops across the north, per current convection. Outflow boundaries
indicated on radar across the far northern cwa. Boundaries will
likely serve as a trigger for additional late afternoon
development across the north.

Tonight and beyond, convection has continued today across much of
western KY today along a southward moving sfc trough. Upper ridge
axis is located just east of the eastern most portion of the
convection. favorable instability resides across Middle TN to
promote the development and continuation of scattered
thunderstorms across mainly northern and northwestern areas into
this evening. However, convective momentum will be the primary
driving factor. Thus, should see a dissipation in activity by
early to mid evening. Nevertheless, cape values are on the high
side and may have to watch for a few strong storms into early this
evening...mainly across northern and northwestern areas.
Additionally, pockets of heavy rainfall, where the stronger storms
reside, will be possible north of I-40.

On Friday, instabilities will back off a bit. Still seeing a
dissipating 18z cap and with the upper ridging pulling off to our
east, low pops for convection will continue. It does look like a
better chance of showers and tstms on Saturday as an upper
shortwave axis interacts with some deepening moisture. Will go
ahead and up pops into the 30-50 percent range, greatest chances
west. The pattern will then trend toward a little more upper and
mid level ridging on Sunday. Will go ahead and adhere to the isc
suggestion and go dry.

For the near term temps, heights are generally on the elevated
side and will go with above normal temps. West of Plateau, highs
mid to upper 80s, lows mid to upper 60s.

In the ext fcst, a continuation of favorable cape to cap ratios
is expected through the period. Any considerable shortwave and/or
frontal boundary interaction will hold off until mid week.
Thus, will include only 20 pops for early next week but values
will climb higher by Wednesday and Thursday. Both the euro and gfs
solutions send a weak boundary eastward across the area on
Thursday. Gfs looks a little more pronounce with the upper
troughing.

For the ext temps, values looking rather steady state. 850 mb temps
will continue around 16c or so. Values should continue to run about
5 to 6 degrees above normal. High temps should drop off a degree or
two by the tail end of the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Convective complex to the north will push south into CKV and
possibly BNA by 19z and 20z, respectively. A gust front associated
with the initial line of thunderstorms may produce 25-30kt winds,
mainly at CKV. MVFR ceilings and MVFR/brief IFR visibilities will
accompany the storms. Behind the main line, may have rain showers
with embedded or vicinity thunderstorms and a southeasterly wind
for a couple of hours, and then will back off to VCSH thereafter.
Left CSV dry for now.

Overnight, not expecting much or any precipitation, but think
MVFR visibilities are possibly at CKV and CSV. Plan to update
CKV`s TAF and include this mention later.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  88  67  84  65 /  20  20  20  40  20
Clarksville    66  86  66  81  64 /  30  30  30  50  10
Crossville     63  81  64  79  60 /  20  20  20  40  20
Columbia       66  86  67  83  64 /  20  20  20  40  10
Lawrenceburg   67  87  67  84  63 /  10  20  20  40  10
Waverly        66  85  66  80  65 /  30  20  30  50  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........17



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