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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KOHX 300447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1147 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016




An area of thunderstorms with some heavy rainfall rates of 1-2
inches per hour had moved into our southwest counties. A few heavy
thunderstorms were also over the northwest. This activity is
likely to continue at least a couple more hours with cape values
near 2k j/kg and pw values in the 1.5-2 inch range. Short range
models have been performing poorly lately, but their general trend
of weakening the activity by midnight seems believable with loss
of heating and weakening of the approaching shortwave from
Missouri and Arkansas. But, the activity will not totally
dissipate. We expect at least isolated showers or storms to
continue throughout the night as the shortwave trough and various
boundaries interact with the very moist air mass across the area.
The potential for locally heavy downpours will continue through
the night as well. The forecast has already been updated for
likely pops southwest, chance elsewhere for this evening. Late
night pops will be in 30-40 percent range. Lows will be mainly in
the lower 70s.



VFR conditions at TAF time with waning showers across East Middle
TN. This activity will continue to dissipate leaving a very wet
ground to help with some patchy fog development after 08Z tonight.
Some IFR vis can be expected, especially at KCSV. Winds will be
light and variable the rest of the night then become primarily
swly Saturday.






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