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Area Forecast Discussion

396
FXUS64 KOHX 011114
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WX THROUGH TODAY WITH
MAINLY E WINDS 5-10KT. TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING S 10-15KT. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
POP/COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SHWR/TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THRU THU FRI
NIGHT...STRENGTH OF TSTM ACTIVITY...TEMPS.

EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH CURRENT BUILDING SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES
STRETCHING DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO N PORTIONS OF THE MID
STATE. MAY NOT REACH AS HIGH OF TEMPS TODAY AS YESTERDAY...AS WEAK
COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES JUST S OF MID STATE AND THEN SLOWLY COMES
BACK AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN TN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GFS MOS
HAS BEEN THE "KING" OF TEMP FORECASTING AS OF LATE...YES...GFS
MOS...YOU ARE WORTHY...AND PLAYING AN APRIL FOOLS JOKE ON IT AGAIN
LIKE UNDERCUTTING IT VALUES FOR HIGHS WOULD BE A LOOSING PROPOSITION
FOR THE THIRD MORNING IN A ROW. BELIEVE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ENHANCEMENTS...DESPITE A LITTLE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO MOST OF
THE MID STATE TODAY...THAT TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN GFS MOS VALUES. THUS WILL GO WITH UPPER 70S ACROSS
MAINLY WRN AND CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE WITH A GENERAL 70 TO
75 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE E. WITH RAINFALL ACROSS
LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TN/AL THIS AFTERNOON AND CLRING
SKIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THOSE LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCED PATCHY FOG. THOUGH KEEPING MOST OF THE MID STATE DRY
TODAY...JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND DIURNAL BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE
PRESENT FOR SOME ISO SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL CAN CERTAINLY NOT BE RULED OUT.

WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS W TO E WED NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WEAKEN AND A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE...AND 850MB JET
STRENGTHENS...ALONG WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SFC WARM FRONT FINALLY
PUSHING N OF THE MID STATE. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM LOWER 50S PLATEAU
TO APPROACHING 60 TN RIVER VALLEY REGION.

A GULF WAA SCENARIO WILL BECOME EVEN MORE ENHANCED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON THU...WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AS
THU PROGRESSES FOR SCT...MAINLY AFTERNOON...SHWRS/TSTMS. SOME STORMS
TSTMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR NW 1/3 OF MID STATE...INCLUDING METRO
NASHVILLE AREA AND CLARKSVILLE...WHERE SPC HAS PLACED US UNDER A DAY
TWO MARGINAL SVR TSTM RISKS. AGAIN WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GFS MOS NUMBERS HERE AS BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S PLATEAU REGION. LOWS THU NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 60S AS BEST POTENTIAL OF SHWRS/TSTMS
REMAINS JUST N/NW OF MID STATE...AND TAILORED POPS NW LIKELY TO SE
CHANCE AS A RESULT. A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS STATES AS THE NIGHTIME HOURS PROGRESS ALSO.

AS FOR FRI...SPC PLACING THE ENTIRE MID STATE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SVR TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS
ACROSS THE PLATEAU COUNTIES ON FRI...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS. GFS/EURO NOW MORE OF A CONSENSUS
AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE MID STATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON FRI. AS REFERENCED ABOVE...BELIEVE THE
MAIN TIME FRAME FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS AND WENT WITH CAT SHWRS/TSTMS THEN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREES RANGE...MID TO UPPER 60S PLATEAU.
EXPECT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE QUICKLY E OF MID STATE AS FRI NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AS BASE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH BUILDING CNTRL PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES. SKIES
MAY CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH BY LATE FRI NIGHT FOR SOME UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION...WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

31

LONG TERM(SAT THRU TUE)...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD MID TN. SATURDAY WILL BE A
SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS FROM 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE HIGH CENTER
WILL BE OVER MID TN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY. PATCHY FROST WILL BE A CONCERN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW OF THE USUAL COLDER...SHELTERED
AREAS EAST OF I 65 MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH THE FREEZING MARK AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND WELL INTO THE 60S UNDER
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT...WE HAVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S...AND LOWS
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES...PROBABLY ON THURSDAY.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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