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Area Forecast Discussion

406
FXUS64 KOHX 230834
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
334 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE TAKING OVER FROM THE GULF COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES.  BECAUSE OF THIS...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR MOST.  WITH THE LOSS OF A COUPLE MORE DEGREES EXPECTED...WE
ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST AROUND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING.  HOPEFULLY EVERYONE WITH SENSITIVE
VEGETATION HAS TAKEN THE PROPER PROTECTIVE PRECAUTIONS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA THAT IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AS IT
DOES...A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND A OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM WILL ONLY LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE STATE TONIGHT.
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE THE CULPRIT IN KEEPING US IN THE MID 40S
TONIGHT AND NEGATE ANY CONCERNS FOR A SECOND NIGHT OF FROST.

STARTING FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR...WE WILL START TO SEE
A CONSIDERABLE WARM UP AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.
THICKNESS VALUES AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY 9-10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALSO...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO CREEP TOWARDS 60 DEGREES.  THIS IS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM BUT EITHER WAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISE IN THE REGION.  HAVE BUMPED POPS
AND INTRODUCED THUNDER INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS REASON.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEAR WATCHING AS A WELL-AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SPARKS
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS AND PUSHES A DECENT COLD FRONT INTO THE
STATE ON WEDNESDAY.

UNGER

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THRU 24/06Z WITH LIGHT NELY
SFC WINDS EXPECTED. AS PREVIOUSLY EXPLAINED...CKV/CSV DID NOT
EXPERIENCE ANY MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH NOT MUCH
OVERALL CHANGE IN WX PATTERN EXPECTED THRU THIS PORTION OF
FORECAST PERIOD...BELIEVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION COULD
STILL POSSIBLY PER USUAL LOCAL AFFECT INFLUENCES...BUT CONTINUE TO
BELIEVE THESE CHANCES TO BE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A
FM/TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AFTER 24/00Z...BUT WITH MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT
TO AVIATION OPERATIONS EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE WITH SKC THRU
24/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      66  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0
CLARKSVILLE    65  43  71  50 /   0   0  10   0
CROSSVILLE     63  42  66  45 /   0   0  10   0
COLUMBIA       65  42  70  48 /   0   0  10   0
LAWRENCEBURG   67  44  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
WAVERLY        67  44  72  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN.

&&

$$

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