National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

614
FXUS64 KOHX 030401
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1101 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. ISOL/SCT LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS HOLDING ITS OWN ACROSS NRN AL AND MAY ATTEMPT TO WORK
NORTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT. MODELS STILL AGREE WITH
LIMITING THIS NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...06Z 6HR QPF PROGS
ARE UNDERDOING WHAT APPEARS TO BE FALLING TO OUR SOUTH.
THUS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MID STATE. WILL STILL CARRY THE 30 POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMP FCST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. THE
CLOUDINESS SHOULD PREVAIL AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
UNCERTAINTIES...ACTUAL CEILING HEIGHTS...IMPACTS OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS MID
STATE 03/00Z-03/03Z AND 03/14Z-03/24Z. ALTHOUGH ISO TSTMS NOT OUT OF QUESTION
WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE THRU 03/03Z...ESPECIALLY VCNTY BNA...BELIEVE
IMPACT POTENTIAL GENERALLY MINIMAL. BELIEVE MOST SHWRS WILL REMAIN W AND N
OF MID STATE...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POTENTIAL SUPPORTING PATCHY MVFR/IFR
FOG THRU 03/14Z WITH GENERALLY BKN AC TO BKN CI. BELIEVE OVERALL MOISTURE
PATTERN ALONG WITH ADDING SOME SCT DIURNAL DRIVEN CU FIELDS TO MID TO HIGH
LEVEL EXPECTED CLOUDINESS PATTERN SUPPORTING ISO/SCT SHWRS/TSTMS BEST CHANCE
W TO SLIGHT CHANCE E ACROSS MID STATE 03/14Z-03/24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE AR SOUTHWARD THROUGH MS. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE NE AND WILL MAKE IT INTO EASTERN KY AS IT
WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELDS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD AS WELL BUT WILL STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE THROUGH 12Z. AS A RESULT...WILL
MAKE NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST OTHER THAN TO ADD
ISOL THUNDER TO SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT FOR THE EVENING ONLY. MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME SFC BASED CAPE AT 00Z BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 06Z. NO FOG WILL BE INCLUDED FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS
AS THOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL PREVENT VSBY REDUCTIONS BELOW 1 MILE.
UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MID STATE AT MID
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OBSERVED, MAINLY WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. ABUNDANT CLOUDS HAVE HELPED KEEP TEMPS MODERATED THIS
AFTERNOON AND AT 3PM WERE RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.

EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO RIDE OVER DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY, PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTH, AND MAINLY JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHS JUMPING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU.

LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A GOOD DAYTIME WARM-UP AND AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S
AREA-WIDE. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEST.

SATURDAY ALSO LOOKS RATHER SUMMER-LIKE, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND HIGHS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE 80S. COULD EVEN SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE JUST A BIT OVER OUR MOST NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
BY LATE IN THE DAY, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE TENNESSEE RIVER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID
STATE. SOUTHERN END OF UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE
OFF, KEEPING EASTWARD PROGRESSION A BIT SLUGGISH. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT
TO SEE THE FRONT IN THE NASHVILLE AREA BY NOON, THEN WATCH IT LIMP
TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE LATEST MODEL
RUNS SEEM TO BE HONING IN ON SUNDAY AS THE DAY OF FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WILL BUMP POPS INTO THE "LIKELY CATEGORY" AREA-WIDE FOR THAT PARTICULAR
PERIOD.

GFS ACTUALLY PINCHES OFF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE
SUNDAY NIGHT, KEEPING RAIN LIKELY OVER EASTERN AREAS THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT.

WHILE CLEARING TAKES PLACE OVER WESTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE UPPER CUMBERLAND THROUGH
MONDAY AND EVEN INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE MID STATE FOR THE
LATTER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED, WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. COOL AUTUMNAL AIR MASS WILL ALLOW LOWS
TO DIP INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S AT A NUMBER OF PLACES TUESDAY
MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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