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Area Forecast Discussion

211
FXUS64 KOHX 280826
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
326 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The summerlike pattern continues... Sunday looks like more of the
same with the upper high still centered to the east of the area.
Diurnal storms will be around again today. Models, including the
tail end of HRRR runs, are favoring the plateau area. Looking at
model soundings, I would not be surprised to see a couple of strong
storms over that way. Soundings are showing some dry air in the
mid levels and effective bulk shear values between 5 and 15 kts.
As storms collapse, a couple of localized microbursts will be
possible. Activity should die begin to die off shortly after
sunset as CAPE falls off.

For Monday and Tuesday, we will still be under the influence of the
upper high. Diurnal activity will be a possibility but model
consensus shows less coverage. By Wednesday, a central US upper
ridge begins to take shape and our upper flow transitions to
northwesterly. This could allow for a little more coverage in
diurnal activity on Wednesday with subtle disturbances riding the
NW flow. By Friday, models show Middle TN being on the southern
fringe of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Some drier
air looks like it will filter in by Friday and into Saturday.

Temperatures still look warm for the forecast period with highs
around 90 or above and lows mainly in the 70s for the beginning and
middle of the work week. By the end of the work week highs look like
they will fall to the mid to upper 80s and lows will be in the 60s
instead of 70s.

I am still watching a tropical wave located north of Cuba. Looking
at spaghetti plots, some models want to bring it into the gulf and
then steer it back into western FL. Some still want to bring it
closer toward the FL panhandle including the operational Euro. It
blows the storm up and brings it to land south of Tallahassee. If
this solution came to be, we would be influenced by outer subsidence
and dry conditions for Friday into the weekend. I`m still not
putting much stock in a single solution as models have been all over
the place (in location and intensity) with this system over the
last couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...High pressure remains situated to our east with weak
circulation across Middle Tennessee. Earlier convection has
entirely dissipated with mostly clear skies this hour. We may see
some radiation fog after 06Z, but shouldn`t be particularly dense
at any of the terminals. There is a chance of mainly afternoon &
early evening convection again tomorrow owing to persistent
instability and abundant moisture in the existing airmass, so will
include some mention of thunder in the TAF`s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      95  73  92  73  93 /  30  20  20  10  10
Clarksville    92  72  90  72  91 /  20  20  30  10  20
Crossville     86  67  87  67  88 /  50  20  20  10  20
Columbia       92  71  91  71  92 /  30  10  20  10  10
Lawrenceburg   92  71  91  70  92 /  40  20  20  10  10
Waverly        92  72  90  72  91 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......10/Reagan
AVIATION........08



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