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Area Forecast Discussion

556
FXUS64 KOHX 050740
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
240 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WILL LET FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z EXPIRATION THIS MORNING.

WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
CIRCULATION PIVOTING ABOUT A CENTRAL POINT LOCATED AROUND DEKALB
COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 07Z. DEFORMATION
EVIDENT ON OHX DOPPLER AS WELL AS CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN SLOWLY WORKING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRONOUNCED COMMA HEAD
EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SLIGHTLY WEST OF SURFACE
CIRCULATION. MODELS SHOWING A GOOD SHOT OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. COMING TO WORK AT
MIDNIGHT RAIN FALLING FELT LIKE A WARM RAIN PROCESS WITH SMALL
DROPLET SIZE BUT LOTS OF IT...MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL TYPE
RAIN. RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 0.30 INCH PER HOUR ACROSS
EASTERN MIDDLE AND IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND COUPLED WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT...THEREFORE FLASH FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE IN WATCH AREA
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO...SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY
ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER PROVIDING A GOOD MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE UPPER CUMBERLAND. LIGHTNING COUNT HAS
DIMINISHED AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

MODELS SHOWING STRONGER WINDS ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER LOW SO WE
SHOULD SEE LOW TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALONG
WITH SURFACE FRONT WHILE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER AREA. UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL STRADDLE PLATEAU AND ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE
DURING THE DAY PROVIDING LIFT IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM
PLATEAU AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS
SCOURED OUT AS UPPER PATTERN TRANSITION FROM TROUGH IN THE EAST TO
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN FIRST OF THE WEEK...THEN BY MID WEEK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH
STRONGER WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. UPPER RIDGE STAYS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPS LATTER PART OF
WORK WEEK AND OVER WEEKEND DUE TO SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH UPPER
RIDGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      83  69  88  71 /  40  20  30  30
CLARKSVILLE    84  68  87  72 /  30  10  20  30
CROSSVILLE     74  64  81  68 /  70  30  40  30
COLUMBIA       84  68  87  70 /  40  20  30  30
LAWRENCEBURG   83  68  85  70 /  50  20  40  30
WAVERLY        85  69  87  72 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ010-011-
031>034-063>066-077>080.

&&

$$
BOYD
01



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