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Area Forecast Discussion

657
FXUS64 KOHX 211536
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1036 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE MID-STATE
LATE THIS MORNING. MOISTURE SOURCE AHEAD REMAINS LIMITED AND
VERTICAL MOTION QUITE WEAK. THUS BAND OF PCPN EARLIER NOW
REDUCED TO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPS WARMING RAPIDLY AND THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BOOST INSTABILITY A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH. EXPECT
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON EAST/SOUTH
AS FRONT MOVES INTO AL THIS EVENING. OVERALL ONGOING FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL MAKE A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 714 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
AND CIGS ARE PROGGED TO FALL AS THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP EXPECTED
TODAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND POSSIBLY IMPACT TAF SITES...AROUND 13Z FOR
CKV...14Z FOR BNA...AND 18Z FOR CSV. EXPECT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR ALL
SITES BY 00Z AND REMAIN PLEASANT THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CLEARLY DEPICTS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT
SPEED...FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID STATE AROUND 8 AM THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS DURING THE DAY BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA BY EVENING. WITH MAIN UPPER FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND
LIMITED DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WARRANTING ONLY
CHANCE POPS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS
DAYTIME HEATING AIDS IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...BUT CHANCE APPEARS REMOTE DUE TO LACKLUSTER
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT...RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
FALL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS MONTH WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S FOR NEARLY EVERYONE EXCEPT TYPICALLY WARMER URBAN
NASHVILLE AND AREAS NEAR THE AL BORDER. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE ALOFT...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DUE TO THE POLAR JET
BEING WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA. BY NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND HAVE KEPT MENTION IN GRIDS AND
ZONES.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





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