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Area Forecast Discussion

839
FXUS64 KOHX 201000
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR VIS TO CKV/CSV EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT CUMULUS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON...WITH VCTS
AT CSV AFTER 18Z. HRRR MODEL RUNS ARE RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP ACROSS THE MID STATE LATER TODAY...SO CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULED OUT A -SHRA/-TSRA AT CKV/BNA EITHER. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KTS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

..TEMPS TO HEAT UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN WIND FIELD AND SOMEWHAT IN VORTICITY PATTERN
WORKING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY DOWN THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TRYING
TO EXTEND DOWN ALONG TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER EAST OF MY CWA.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AS WARM/HOT UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BEGINS BUILDING IN THIS DIRECTION FROM SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE KEEPING SMALL POPS IN FOR TODAY ACROSS ALL OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OVER EASTERN AREAS
AND PLATEAU. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE MUCH
MORE THAN ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BUT DID
INCLUDE A SMALL POP IN FORECAST FOR TODAY AND EVENING. AS UPPER
RIDGE APPROACHES SUBSIDENCE GETS UNDERWAY WITH GOOD ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION WHICH WILL ACT TO DRY OUT TROPOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WHICH MEANS LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR RAIN. ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION WILL ALSO HEAT TEMPS UP WELL INTO THE 90S LATTER PART
OF THIS WORK WEEK...OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

CLIMATE...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS SUMMER IN NASHVILLE
HAS BEEN 97 DEGREES ON AUGUST 6TH. LAST SUMMER (2013) THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURE WAS 97 DEGREES ON JULY 17TH.

HOTTEST SUMMER TEMPS SINCE 2000...

2013...97 JULY 17TH
2012...109 JUNE 29TH ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR NASHVILLE
2011...102 AUGUST 3RD
2010...101 AUGUST 4TH
2009...95 JUNE 22ND AND JUNE 27TH
2008...97 JULY 21ST AND AUGUST 5TH
2007...106 AUGUST 16TH ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH FOR AUGUST
2006...100 JULY 19TH
2005...98 AUGUST 11TH...12TH AND 20TH
2004...94 JULY 13TH
2003...94 JULY 28TH
2002...97 AUGUST 5TH
2001...95 JULY 8TH
2000...100...AUGUST 17TH

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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