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Area Forecast Discussion

675
FXUS64 KOHX 310738
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
238 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER MID TN THIS
MORNING. A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WAS SENDING A LOT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA...WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES GETTING INTO WAYNE COUNTY. TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE NOT
AS COOL AS 24 HOURS AGO THANKS TO THE MODIFIED AIR MASS AND
CLOUDS.

FOR TODAY...THE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE DEEP
SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF
OUR AREA...BUT WE WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTH COUNTIES. A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS SHOULD
THIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF. TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
THE MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GIVE US A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
NOT BE A BIG RAIN PRODUCER. THIRSTY PARTS OF THE MID
STATE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I 40...WILL BE LUCKY TO HAVE ANY RAIN
AT ALL WITH POPS PEAKING ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARD...TOWARD CLIMO NORMS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND WILL BE REPLACED BY
RISING HEIGHTS AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 90S AGAIN BY MIDWEEK FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP UPWARD...BUT WILL BE TOLERABLE FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES...WITH ONLY MINOR
VIS IMPACTS AT CSV WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE THE
LOWEST...CURRENTLY AT 05Z RUNNING ABOUT 6 DEGREES WITH SOME LIGHT
HAZE DROPPING VIS DOWN TO 7SM. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT COMPLEXES OF STORMS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      85  63  86  66 /  05  10  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    84  60  86  63 /  10  10  20  20
CROSSVILLE     78  60  78  62 /  10  30  50  40
COLUMBIA       84  61  86  65 /  10  20  30  20
LAWRENCEBURG   83  63  85  65 /  20  20  30  20
WAVERLY        83  60  86  64 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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