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Area Forecast Discussion

305
FXUS64 KOHX 180959
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
359 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM(TODAY THRU FRI NIGHT)...

FORECAST QUANDARIES...PCPN TYPE/ANY ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS THRU
THE MID MORNING HRS TODAY...TEMPS.

ON THE AVERAGE THIS MORNING...HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH A LIGHT MIX OF
LIGHT SLEET AND RAIN...WITH SOME SCATTERED REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS ON AVERAGE
TO GET ANY COOLER THAN VALUES BEING EXPERIENCED CURRENTLY...AND THUS
BELIEVE THAT THIS WINTRY MIX WILL BE THE PREVAILING PCPN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MID STATE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS. HAVE THUS REMOVED THE
MENTION OF SNOW MIXING IN ALSO. FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF
THE MID STATE...EXPECT ONLY A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SLEET MIX. THIS
ABOVE REASONING NOT ONLY SUPPORTED BY CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT THE
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND NATIONAL PRODUCTS...ALONG WITH
CONSENSUS MODEL AND BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILES AND SHORT RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AS THE INFLUENCES OF THIS ISENTROPIC OVERRUNNING PCPN
SYSTEM EVENT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCES THE MID STATE`S WX THRU AT LEAST
THE EARLY MORNING HRS.

EXPECT A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN SHWRS ACROSS THE MID STATE AFTER
THE MID MID MORNING HRS TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON MORE
CONVECTIVE CHARACTERISTICS AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMES INTO PLAY.
CONTINUING TO EXPECT A RAIN SHWRS TO CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST AS
DYNAMICS FOR PCPN DEVELOPMENT WEAKEN. WILL KEEP THE MID STATE DRY
THU NIGHT THRU MOST OF FRI WITH A MORE DEVELOPED WX SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE MID STATE BY FRI NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT. A VARIETY OF MODEL SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOWING...THAT AT LEAST AT THIS TIME...THAT THIS COULD
TRANSITION INTO LIKELY A RAIN/SNOW EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
STATE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TN/KY
BORDER REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE NRN LOCATIONS ALSO. EXPECT MOST OF THE MID
STATE TO EXPERIENCE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE THRU THE MID MORNING HRS
ON SAT...TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY THE MID MORNING HRS...WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON SAT. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING CHANCES OF RAINFALL ACROSS PLATEAU COUNTIES
DURING THE EVENING HRS...WILL KEEP THE MID STATE DRY ON SAT NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THRU SAT NIGHT...EXPECTING HIGH VALUES TODAY AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL PER CONTINUED NLY SFC FLOW AND CAA PATTERN
IN PLACE. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMUP TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BY THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM (SUN THRU CHRISTMAS DAY)...

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
PLAINS CAUSING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS TN.
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF TO THE EAST COAST...AND SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPILL BACK INTO MID TN WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY PLATEAU.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS WE GO INTO
TUESDAY. THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS A STRONG JET
STREAM BRINGS ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSING OFF
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE
INTO MID TN...WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

GOING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE...THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT INTO THE TN
VALLEY. THIS WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. SOME
LOW END ACCUMULATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR MID TN...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF
MID TN. PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST ON THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THOSE TRAVELING TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES...NORTHEAST OR MOUNTAINS.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...MODELS SHOW MOISTURE LIFTING AWAY FROM MID TN
WITH DRY WX AND HIGHS IN THE 40S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      39  31  45  32 /  80  05  10  60
CLARKSVILLE    37  29  42  30 /  80  05  10  60
CROSSVILLE     41  26  44  31 /  80  05  10  60
COLUMBIA       43  30  46  33 /  80  05  20  60
LAWRENCEBURG   46  31  46  34 /  80  05  20  80
WAVERLY        39  31  43  32 /  80  05  20  60
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31/13





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