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Area Forecast Discussion

457
FXUS64 KMRX 290725
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
325 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
Mostly quiet weather is expected for the remainder of the morning
and into the evening. Dew points rose after the sun set and will
be high enough that some places could see patchy fog early this
morning. Currently am not expecting widespread dense fog, and
anything that does develop will burn off relatively quickly after
sunrise. We will continue to bring in drier air from the north
leading to mostly sunny skies today. In the late afternoon/evening
we could see some showers/thunderstorms along the Southern
Appalachian Mountains, but coverage will be sparse and most of the
storms will likely lie on the eastern side of the mountains, closer
to the boundary across the Carolinas.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A ridge of high pressure at the surface will slowly weaken and shift
off to the west late this work week...as an upper-trough over the
Eastern CONUS amplifies. This amplification of the trough will send
weak front south toward the region late Friday into the holiday
weekend. Where this boundary stalls will have a large impact on
precipitation chances...cloud cover and temperatures. For Thursday
and Friday however...mostly to partly sunny conditions are expected
for much of the days with warm/dry conditions (save for an isolated
storm or two along the mountains). By Friday evening and overnight
though...cloud cover will be on the increase as the front slowly
pushes south from the Ohio River into Kentucky. This boundary will
serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms throughout the
weekend...aided by the amplification of the jet stream over the Ohio
Valley as a series of shortwave troughs swing around the parent
low/trough.

There are subtle differences between the long range model progs on
exactly how far south the front will go. The GFS is definitely
trending further south and is wetter through the Independence Day
holiday...while the ECMWF and Canadian solution are more north and
little drier. Regardless...rain chances will increase throughout the
weekend...with good chances for scattered diurnal convection Sunday
and the holiday on Monday. This boundary/upper-trough will
potentially linger into Tuesday before lifting back northeast as a
subtropical ridge over the Gulf coast attempts to nose it`s back
into the Tennessee Valley. Overall...a somewhat cooler and possibly
wetter holiday weekend. However...should the boundary hang up
further to the north...scattered diurnal convection will prevail as
opposed to widespread showers and storms. Will need to monitor
trends in the days ahead. And of course...with all storms...
lightning...heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             91  65  89  66 /  10  10   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  87  62  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  62  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              83  59  83  62 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

ABM/AMP



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