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Area Forecast Discussion

550
FXUS64 KMRX 301851
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL TN VALLEY CURRENTLY.
THE INTENSITIES HAVE NOT IMPROVED WITH THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE SHOWN
SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR. TEMPERATURES IN THE
FOOTHILLS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS DUE TO SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS THAT HELPED CLEAR SOME CLOUD COVER AND PROVIDED
MUCH MORE SUNSHINE. THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIKE ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE OUT OF MS/AL INTO E TN. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SOMETIME BETWEEN 9PM ET AND MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD ALSO BE RE-
DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS INITIAL SYSTEM AS UPPER SOUTHWEST
FLOW/MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTS.

A MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM SPC STILL EXISTS FOR SUNDAY SO A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AGAIN
SUNDAY SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR STRONGER STORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... WILL SEE ANOTHER
CHANCE AT A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THINK SOME OF THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
FURTHER TO OUR NORTH, BUT IN OUR AREA WE WILL SEE ENOUGH CAPE AND
SOME SHEAR TO HAVE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS
TIME THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE SIZE HAIL IN SOME OF
THE STORMS, BUT STRONG STRAIGHTLINE WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OVERNIGHT THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM THE WEST AND LIKELY END
THE SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NIGHT.

WE ONLY TAKE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES BEFORE OUR NEXT SYSTEM
BRINGS MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A LOW MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND BRINGS WITH IT A SURGE OF MOISTURE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
WHEN THE LOW PASSES NEAR AREA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS DROPS OFF DRAMATICALLY AS
THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HANDLING THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEMS
OVER OUR AREA. WHAT THEY DO AGREE ON IS THAT A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM VARIES WILDLY DEPENDING ON WHICH LONG TERM MODEL YOU
LOOK AT. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
PERIODS OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND OVERALL MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL
MODEL AGREEMENT IS BETTER IN LATER RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  79  63  78 /  80  60  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  79  63  77 /  80  70  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  79  63  77 /  80  60  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  77  59  76 /  90  70  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/ABM



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