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Area Forecast Discussion

192
FXUS64 KMRX 272019
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
319 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEEP UPPER LOW
THAT IS NOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES HAS NOW
WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ABOUT ENDED...BUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IN THE DRYING AIR MASS
WAS STILL PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES. THESE SHOULD COME TO AN END
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS TRYING TO HANG ONTO THE LOW CLOUDS INTO
THE EVENING WITH UPPER FLOW BRINGING CLOUDS INTO REGION FROM THE
NW. COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING
DOWN OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOWS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA EVEN FALLING INTO THE TEENS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MOSTLY 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE COLDER MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL CANCEL
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE SMOKIES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK TROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY
AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING....BUT NO WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND SOME CLEARING BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER DEEPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A COLDER AIR MASS IN ITS
WAKE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA...BRINGING COOLER AIR AND CHANGING ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE/RAIN SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW...OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN EAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ABOVE 2500-3000 FT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             27  48  32  54 /   0   0  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  21  44  28  50 /   0   0  10  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       23  43  30  49 /   0   0  10  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              16  39  24  46 /  10   0  10  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/AMP



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