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Area Forecast Discussion

472
FXUS64 KMRX 310721
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY HELPING TO PULL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWARD UP THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SYNOPTIC
LIFT IS VERY LIMITED AND MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE LIMITED TO 20-40 PERCENT COVERAGE OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH
SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS RETURNING.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LONG TERM STARTS OFF DRY
BEFORE RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST IS ABLE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE TO
THE AREA BRINGING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TILL A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT WEEK. FRONT WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA WHEN YOU COMPARE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

WE DRY OUT VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION. WE WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MAKES A RUN AT
THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             73  50  75  52 /  40  20  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  44  69  48 /  30  20  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  45  71  48 /  20  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              69  39  66  40 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





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