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Area Forecast Discussion

004
FXUS64 KMRX 190830
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
430 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WAS
SHIFTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDS
LEFT BEHIND AND NO PRECIPITATION. THESE CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS KEPT MIN TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT.

SUNSHINE RETURNS IN NEAR FULL FORCE LATER TODAY...BUT SOME SLIGHT
COOLING OF 850 MB TEMPS. THUS...I KEPT MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MOS
BLEND JUST BELOW THE WARMER GFS MAXES.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS.
WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS LATE TONIGHT FOR WESTERN AREAS
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...MAY SEE MINS DIP AS LOW AS MID OR
UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS OF NE TN AND SW VA. THUS...I ADDED SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FROST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. NW FLOW BRINGS SYSTEM SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THEN
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NE STATES. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DROPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE NE AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE TO THE NE AS MODELS
TRY TO SHOW THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NE STATES. AS MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND IT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE NE SECTIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
AS RIDGING REPLACES TROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  44  71  49 /   0   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  42  68  48 /   0   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  41  67  49 /   0   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  37  67  42 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/TD



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