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Area Forecast Discussion

832
FXUS64 KMRX 251900
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
300 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tomorrow)...
Isolated-to-scattered convection will be ongoing to begin the
tonight period. Coverage should wane through the night compared to
this afternoon but will still keep slight chance and low-end chance
pops in place due to the proximity of the approaching front. Mild
overnight lows expected with temps near 70 north and lower 70s
south. A few of these overnight showers/storms will still have the
potential to produce locally heavy rainfall due to elevated PWS.

Tomorrow, showers and storms should start earlier due to the nearby front
with development possible by late morning. High-end chance pops in
place during the afternoon hours as we destabilize. NAM soundings
showing MLCAPE values anywhere from 1500 to 2000 J/KG by the
afternoon. No shear to be found as we will be in a weak zonal flow
so this should greatly dampen any severe threat. The big thing to
keep an eye on will be for heavy rainfall potential as PWS are on
the high side for this time of year. This combined with slow storm
motions could produce localized flooding. Expecting more cloud
cover tomorrow so highs will be a few degrees cooler, in the upper
80s-to-low-90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)...
The high pressure ridge that has been over the Southeast will be
retreating eastward off the Atlantic coast to start the period.
Precip should be focused on the periphery of the ridge near the MS
Valley and western portions of the TN Valley on Wednesday. Will
lower pops Wednesday from likely to a chance as forcing is lacking
and convection should be scattered and mainly diurnal.

Rain chances will generally be rising as the ridge continues its
retreat, and a southern stream low over LA/MS gets picked up by a
shortwave trough crossing the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The
NAM, GFS, and ECMWF differ on the timing of the trough progression
and best rain chances, with the ECMWF being the slower model and the
NAM being the fastest. Will lean toward the GFS Ensemble mean and
have likely pops for the western half on Thursday and for the entire
area on Friday.

A broad trough remains over the region through the weekend, which
should result in a fairly wet period for East TN as the feed of
moisture from the Gulf will remain open in the low-to-midlevel SW
flow. With the finer details still uncertain, will keep pops in the
chance range for Saturday through Monday, and lean toward a diurnal
trend for the highest pops each day with near normal temperatures.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  94  75  93 /  30  40  30  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  92  74  92 /  30  40  30  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       74  92  74  92 /  30  40  30  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              70  89  70  91 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

SR/DGS



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