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Area Forecast Discussion

542
FXUS64 KMRX 241920
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...VERY ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET MOVING THROUGH ENHANCING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN PROGRESS
SLOWLY WEST-EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY...FORCING WILL INCREASE WITH
CYCLO-GENESIS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. END RESULT WILL
BE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. CAPES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL
INCREASE TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY LARGE HAIL
CAPES. ALSO...SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR
THE WARM FRONT WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 25KTS/0-1KM SRH OF 250-300
M2/S2. THE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT OVER 40KTS.

EXACT EVOLUTION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS ISOLATED-SCATTERED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLATEAU...THEN MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS KENTUCKY...THEN
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING WARM FRONT. THERE
COULD BE A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STRONG INDICATIONS OF STRONG DAMAGING HIGH WINDS. GOOD MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR ENHANCING DOWNBURSTS STRENGTH AND LOW-LEVEL JET OF
40-50KTS...PRODUCES DERECHO COMPOSITE PARAMETERS IN THE VERY
FAVORABLE RANGE OF 2 TO 4.

THE MAIN SEVERE CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70KTS...LARGE HAIL OF GOLFBALL OR LARGER...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STRONG CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING WITH
RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH
OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW VA/NE TN AND EAST TENNESSEE
MOUNTAINS/. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD CLEARING WILL OCCUR AND RESULT
IN A SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
TO MONDAY...WITH SOME MORE CLOUD COVER MOVING IN LATE AHEAD OF A
EASTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN THE COOLER CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK...AND SOME DECENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF THURSDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER ...UPPER-RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO KICK OFF THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  75  61  76 /  90  80  40  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  52  71  60  70 /  80  80  70  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       52  71  59  69 /  80  80  70  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              45  67  54  63 /  50  80  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





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