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Area Forecast Discussion

029
FXUS64 KMRX 280816
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
316 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD
COVER. LOW-CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT AN
AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGHT HE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL LIGHT FLURRIES CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA..
NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SKY CLEARS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
RIDGING BUILDING IN BRINGING WITH IT WARMER TEMPS. SHOULD CONTINUE
THIS TREND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODELS
WANT TO GENERATE VERY LIGHT QPF WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. HAVE BROUGHT MENTION OF THIS IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT THINK IF ANYTHING DOES FALL IT
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND ONLY AMOUNT TO A TRACE OR SLIGHTLY MORE.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON
MONDAY. COULD SEE MODERATE RAINFALL RATES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE IN OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS ON MONDAY AS FRONT COULD MAKE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST TRICKY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST. FRONT SHOULD BE
THROUGH THE AREA BY OVERNIGHT CAUSING TEMPS TO COOL BY ABOUT 5 - 10
DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AFTER THAT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK, BEFORE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN COMES WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA JUST BEYOND
THE 7 DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             47  31  56  44 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  41  27  56  40 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       41  29  53  41 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  24  54  34 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





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