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Area Forecast Discussion

767
FXUS64 KMRX 302017
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
253 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF
ACTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY WITH SOME ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHORT
WAVE FEATURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WHICH WILL DRAG ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY BUT THE MODELS INSIST ON JUST ENOUGH MOIST AIR ALONG WITH
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OF
ALABAMA AND PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH FOR THE PRODUCTION OF A COUPLE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THIS AREA. THERE IS A VERY
SMALL CHANCE THAT A SHOWER DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR THIS
REGION OF SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A SPRINKLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AS
THE COOL FRONT PRESSES SOUTHEAST INTO THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MIN AND MAX
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW CHANCE FOR ONGOING
CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND NW
STEERING FLOW ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH CONVECTION. WARM
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THU BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. BETTER LIFT
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE OF FRIDAY AS A FLAT BROAD TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY. ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. CLEARING ON SATURDAY WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
SUNDAY. MILD WARM UP WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  73  49  73 /   0  20  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  70  45  69 /   0   0  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  71  45  69 /   0  10  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  68  39  67 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



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