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Area Forecast Discussion

748
FXUS64 KMRX 240739
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
339 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN KY AND MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVED
INTO FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENED. AREA RADARS ONLY SHOWING
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS STILL SHOW ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER
MIDDLE TN INTO EASTERN KY. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY...SLIGHTLY
HIGHER NE TN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY OVERALL MOSTLY LESS
THAN ONE HALF INCH BUT IN THUNDERSTORMS AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AN INCH OR MORE.

SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT TO END SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NW
TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS REACHING ONLY UPPER
70S SW VA TO LOWER TO MID 80S TN AND SW NC THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO FORECAST GFS/NAM BLEND WITH UPPER 50S NE TN AND
SW VA TO LOWER AND MID 60S FARTHER SOUTH LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FAIR WEATHER EXPECT FOR THE
WEEKEND. ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INT THE SOUTH. UPPER
HIGH RIDGES INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE WEST. UPPER JET PUSHES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. WARMING TREND INTO SUNDAY. UPPER JET
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA AND THROUGH THE
SMOKIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD LIFT AND PRE FRONTAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE AS FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND QPF ARE IN
QUESTION WHILE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN THROUGH THE MID WEEK. MORNING LOWS WILL BECOME SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             86  66  88  66 /  40  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  84  64  86  65 /  50  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       83  63  86  63 /  40  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  58  85  58 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TD/SON



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