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Area Forecast Discussion

886
FXUS64 KMRX 221843
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
243 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AND THE RIDGE WILL
SHARPEN A BIT TURNING UPPER FLOW MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE PERIOD.
IT APPEARS THE NEXT WEAK IMPULSE TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL SLIDE DOWN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS AFFECTING AT LEAST NORTHEAST ZONES. WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHEAST...TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.  ON
SATURDAY...APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT MAY ALSO HAVE MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND LESS
CAPPING...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
FAR SOUTHWEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL MCS THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP THE MENTION
IN THE HWO.   WILL NOT ARGUE MUCH WITH MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...BUT
WILL GENERALLY TRIM A BIT OFF MAX TEMPS FOR TOMORROW GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING CONTINUED VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH THE RIDGE MORE CLOSELY CENTERED
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE
AND MUCH MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLATEAU. HAVE A SOLID CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...THINK THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THANKS TO A STRONGER
CAP. HIGHS WILLS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD...WITH AMBLE SUNSHINE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS
THEN DIFFER FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING
A BROAD TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE LOW-END CHANCE POPS GOING
FOR NOW... AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...BY
FRIDAY THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA...AND KEEP THINGS MOSTLY ON THE DRY SIDE ONCE AGAIN TO CLOSE
OUT THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             73  96  73  93 /  10  20  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  91  72  91 /  30  40  30  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  92  71  92 /  30  40  30  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  88  67  87 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/AMP



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