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Area Forecast Discussion

212
FXUS64 KMRX 160737
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
337 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY AND TONIGHT/...YET ANOTHER EARLY MORNING WITH
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME VISBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG. RAIN
SEEMS TO BE OVER FOR NOW...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
WHERE THE LOWEST CEILINGS AND VISBYS ARE NOTED.

FORECAST GRIDS WERE ON TRACK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAIN
QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (NEAR 70 DEGS
AT CHA)...SO I ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER FAR ERN COUNTIES...
THEN DECREASING CLOUDS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY TO MESH BETTER WITH NWS NEIGHBORS...GOING NEAR
OR JUST BELOW THE MOS BLEND. GFS MOS MINS WERE CONSISTENT FROM 12Z
DATA AND CLOSELY FOLLOWED.


.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...THIS DRY BUT COOL NORTHERLY FLOW /ALONG
WITH SOME VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE AREA/ WILL
HELP TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AUTUMN-LIKE AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN THEY NORMALLY MIGHT HAVE BEEN...AND SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS WITH A MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKY...DID NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY LOWERING THEM AND HAVE
MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. BY THE
WEEKEND... RIDGING AND THUS INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES/TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...PUSHING HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S IN MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE NEXT UPPER-
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE ONLY SHOT FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IN
OVER A WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN THE
MODELS...SO DID NOT GET OVERALLY SPECIFIC YET. HOWEVER...THE BEST
WINDOW LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  62  80  58 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  80  59  77  55 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       79  58  78  54 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              77  53  73  50 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/AMP



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