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Area Forecast Discussion

776
FXUS64 KMRX 292030
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...
A BRIEF POST PRECIPITATION WARM UP HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY TONIGHT. A JET SEGMENT IS DIVING SE TONIGHT IN LINE WITH
MRX CWA FOR EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD LIFT
OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MIXED WITH
AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
SNOW GROWTH REGION SO SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. GOOD
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW TO FAVORED ELEVATED AREAS. A FEW RIDGE
TOPS IN SW VA MAY SEE TWO INCHES BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
BELOW SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THUS LEFT OUT OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NOW. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT. CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED TOWARD THE COOL
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES.


.LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THINGS PICK
UP WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARDS OUR
AREA ON SUNDAY. MOST MODELS NOW HAVE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEAR
THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. SHOULD
THIS SOLUTION PAN OUT IT WOULD LEND TOWARDS MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WHILE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEPENDING ON
THE TIME OF DAY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND MAYBE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
WHEN EVERYTHING IS SAID AND DONE. OF OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST OF US OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WE GET INTO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY.
THIS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL COULD ADD UP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PUT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL.
WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OR TWO OF MODELS HITTING ON A SIMILAR
SOLUTION TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE SINCE PREVIOUSLY THEY WERE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL THE LATEST RUN.

WE GET A SHORT BREAK OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY
EXACT DETAILS THIS FAR OUT AND WITH ANOTHER MAJOR SYSTEM SITTING
BETWEEN US AND IT. BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DROP
INTO THE 20`S WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RISE INTO THE 40`S WHICH WILL LEND
ITSELF TOWARDS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. HOPEFULLY AS THE EVENT GETS
CLOSER THE DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  43  26  51 /  20  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  31  38  21  47 /  40  10   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       31  38  23  46 /  30  10   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              29  33  18  43 /  60  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/ABM



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