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Area Forecast Discussion

799
FXUS64 KMRX 210809
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STAYED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. MODELS
STILL PROG RATHER HIGH CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
CLOSER TO A CORRIDOR OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED LIFT AS
SHORT WAVE FEATURES SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THIS
RIDGE AND ITS DRYING AND WARMING ABILITIES MAY KEEP SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE OUT OF MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WENT JUST A
LITTLE BELOW MOS MAX TEMPS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHILE
STAYING QUITE CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MINS TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE 850-
500 MB HIGH BEING CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EAST TN WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE N-NW FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
TARGETS FRIDAY EVENING FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. WILL HAVE
HIGHEST POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME...AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IN NORTHERN AREAS FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE OF TIMING DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW DROPS...AND WILL GO WITH A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN FOR SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED CONVECTION. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK...SUGGESTING LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES. BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
RIDGE WELL TO THE WEST. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT...WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             94  72  96  73 /  20  20  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  90  71  93  73 /  30  20  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       90  71  93  72 /  30  20  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  66  89  68 /  50  30  40  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$



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