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Area Forecast Discussion

120
FXUS64 KMRX 240725
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
325 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...

Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a
closed low spinning across MS/AR and W TN. Closer to home, a
shortwave ridge can be seen across the Southern Appalachians. At
the surface, there is also a weak high pressure in place across the
Appalachian Region. Conditions have remained dry overnight with the
loss of daytime heating and the anti-cyclonic flow aloft. With
widespread showers and storms yesterday afternoon, expect there
could be a few areas of patchy fog but nothing widespread this
morning.

For today, easterly flow develops in the mid and upper levels as
the closed low moves off to the west. Model soundings indicate some
drier air working into the mid and upper levels with the easterly
flow. PW values drop some into the 1.4-.18 inch range with the
lower values across SW VA and the higher values across the Southern
Valley. SBCAPE values will range from 750-1500 J/Kg with 0-6 km
bulk shear values less than 15 kts. Overall, do not expect any
strong or severe storms across the area later this afternoon.
Temperatures will be warm again with highs in the low to mid 90s
with 500 mb heights in the 593-595 dm range. Yesterday`s highs
exceeded guidance by a good bit despite the widespread
precipitation coverage, therefore, stayed a bit warmer than
guidance with highs today. Any ongoing convection should quickly
come to an end near sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

Little change in the weather pattern early in the period with high
pressure in control. As a result...will see continued hot and humid
conditions and diurnal convection for Monday. By Tuesday...the high
will weaken over the area and flow aloft will become zonal. This
will allow a weak...broad boundary to settle into the region.
Models show differences in timing and how far southward the
boundary reaches but overall...this pattern will allow temperatures
to cool slightly. The boundary should stall across the MRX to
possibly just to our north and will be the focus of convective
activity across the area Tuesday through Thursday. Deep moisture in
place and the potential for slow moving storms could allow for
locally heavy rainfall. We will remain in an active weather pattern
through the rest of the extended as a frontal boundary and upper
trough move into the region Friday and Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             96  75  94  74 /  40  20  40  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  94  74  93  72 /  30  20  40  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       95  73  94  73 /  30  20  40  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              93  69  92  70 /  30  20  40  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

MA/MJB



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