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Area Forecast Discussion

335
FXUS64 KMRX 061904
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
FOR TONIGHT...NEITHER THE RAP OR HRRR SHOW HARDLY ANY ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE
OUR HEATING. CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE
WEST AROUND DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...COMBINED
WITH RECENT RAINFALL...SHOULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TYPE OF DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN CLOUDS MOVE IN
TOMORROW MORNING.

TOMORROW...WEAK RIDGING IS TRYING TO DEVELOP BUT THE LATEST 12Z NAM
SHOWS IT HAVING A HARD TIME. THE INCOMING FRONT TO OUR NORTH LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY SUPPRESS THE RIDING SOMEWHAT AND ALLOW SOME CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SUPPRESSING OF RIDGE AND FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL YIELD LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SOUNDINGS
ARE STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CAPE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 2 TO 3K J/KG. CLOUD COVER TOMORROW WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER WE SEE ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH STARTS TO GET PUSHED
BACK TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING
ASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A LOW OVER THE PLAINS
PRODUCES A SW FLOW OVER THE MS AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE ONCE THIS LOW DEPARTS...BECOMING CENTERED
OVER MS AND WEST TN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPSHOT OF THIS PATTERN
WILL BE A RETURN OF TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING A DIURNAL PATTERN. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE IN OUR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS FARTHER FROM THE RIDGE. AS THE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE INTO TX...A N-NW FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY BRING SOME UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES
INTO THE AREA AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  89  71  91 /  20  30  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  69  87  70  88 /  20  30  20  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  87  69  88 /  20  30  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  85  66  87 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/DGS



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