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Area Forecast Discussion

724
FXUS64 KMRX 261858
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
258 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW)...QUIET SHORT TERM IN STORE
AS WE ARE IN A POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ON GOING
FROM OUT OF THE NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY CLEAR....RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON MONDAY.
MONDAY IS ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER
60S...ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...CLOUD COVER WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER
GREATLY WITH THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM IS A
LITTLE FASTER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD PLACE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERLY VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN ZONES
SEEING A REASONABLE CHANCE AT RAIN SHOWERS. THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
FAVOR A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...PLACING THE LOW
AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION SLIGHTLY WITH POPS AND SHOW
SOLID CHANCE POPS TO LOW-END LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALL-DAY WEDNESDAY. THEN...SHOW A GRADUAL TAPERING
OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. SHOULD THE NAM VERIFY
HOWEVER...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE A DRY DAY WITH CLEARING
OCCURRING. THEREAFTER...UPPER-RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             48  68  46  69 /  10   0  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  44  65  42  66 /  10   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       44  65  42  66 /  10   0  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              40  62  38  64 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SR/AMP



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