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Area Forecast Discussion

495
FXUS64 KMRX 261405
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1005 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...13Z SURFACE MAP PLACES COLD FRONT THROUGH NW TN AND
THE WRN 1/3RD OF KY...WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NRN
PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. NAM 12KM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
MUCAPES (MOST UNSTABLE) OF 800 TO 1200 J/KG FOR OUR PLATEAU COUNTIES
AT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SO SHOULD SEE A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (MAINLY ERN AREAS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT).

LATEST RAP AND HRR MODEL RUNS REALLY DON`T ADVANCE MUCH PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 22Z TODAY...SO
MAY LOWER POPS BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT OR MORE IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST GRIDS RUNNING ON TRACK AS FAR TEMPS AND OTHER
HOURLY FIELDS ARE CONCERNED. WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS TO MAKE MINOR
CHANGE MENTIONED AND TO ALSO REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING FROM ZFP
PRODUCT.

OUR FREEZE PROGRAM WILL BEGIN TODAY FOR ALL BUT...WISE AND RUSSELL
COUNTIES OF SW VA...AS WELL AS THE SMOKY AND NE TN MTN AREAS. WE
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE FREEZE PROGRAM AREAS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG



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