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Area Forecast Discussion

657
FXUS64 KMRX 191915
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
ACCORDING TO PROJECTIONS BY OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL AND THE HRRR...LIGHT
PRECIP OVER OUR SE COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 00Z.
WILL KEEP A CHANCE POP SOUTHEAST IN UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER EXIT. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST
TONIGHT...AND CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE AS WELL. MOST SPOTS
WILL SEE LOW IN THE 40S...AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR BY SUNRISE.
SUNDAY WILL BE MILD AND SUNNY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MODELS SLOWING EARLY WEEK SYSTEM NOW STILL MORE. RIDGING ALOFT OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP HIGH PRESSURE WITH WARM AIR MASS IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. REMOVED POPS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES 40S
TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MONDAY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASES BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT RETURN
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. LEAD SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCES A FEW
SHOWERS BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY. WEAK
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THEN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRYING MOVES IN
QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MS VALLEY AND RESIDE OVER THE TN VALLEY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR A COUPLE MOSTLY SUNNY WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO MS AND TN VALLEYS. MAIN SURFACE LOW STAYS NORTH ALONG
CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY. MODELS BRING FAST MOVING FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY. KEPT POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS WOUND UP UPPER LOW TRACKS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OH VALLEY. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
AFFECT AREA OVERNIGHT. NE AREAS COULD GET A FEW MORE SHOWERS
SATURDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN. THUNDERSTORMS A BETTER BET
WITH FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  76  52  77 /  20   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  48  75  51  76 /  10   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       47  76  51  76 /  10   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              43  73  42  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD



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