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Area Forecast Discussion

633
FXUS64 KMRX 261917
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
317 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.Short Term (Tonight through Tuesday night)...This scenario is
looking more and more like a heavy rain event over the next 24-36
hours and less like a severe threat.  Would not be surprised by some
trees being downed by some of the strongest storms during that
time period...but instability is not expected to get overly extreme
during this time and shear will be very weak...even with the
frontal passage. However, moisture depth and supply will be
plentiful and although the inflows will not be strong the slow
movements of the cells will result in at lease isolated heavy
rains. The most organized heavy rains look to be during the day on
Monday as the front approaches and the lift is maximized. 36 hour
QPF from this evening through Tuesday morning generally averages
around an inch--a little more in NE TN / SW VA and less near
CHA...but with the slow movements...expected some isolated
locations with 3+ inches at times. Max temps should be lower
Monday...especially across northern areas where clouds and precip
will be found earlier in the day.

.Long term (Wednesday through Sunday)...The long term starts out
with no mention of precipitation both Wednesday and Thursday and
only a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm on Friday with a
dry northwesterly flow aloft and low level north to northeast flow.
However, by the weekend another cool front will be building toward
the region with a southerly return flow forming ahead of the front
along with increasing instability. Therefore, the weekend could be a
little more active in terms of convection so pops are a little
higher in the medium to high chance range. The good news is with a
northerly component to the flow, temperatures may be a few degrees
cooler; much closer to normal for late June and early July.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  92  73  92 /  30  70  50  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  88  70  89 /  30  70  60  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  88  70  90 /  30  70  60  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  86  66  86 /  40  70  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$





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