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Area Forecast Discussion

279
FXUS64 KMRX 300727
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
327 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A few isolated showers will move through the region early this
morning...mainly along the TN/KY border. The main weather impact
though will be low stratus and localized patchy dense fog in areas
that received rainfall earlier. This fog will dissipate after
sunrise...with partly sunny conditions quickly developing and
persisting for most of the day. Given the warm/unstable boundary
layer that will develop by the afternoon...scattered thunderstorms
will be possible across the entire region...especially along the
higher terrain. A broad upper-trough will swing through the region
during the afternoon/evening...helping to provide a little bit of
upper-level support...which could keep some of this activity going
into the late evening and overnight hours as well. The warm/moist
air mass...and ample sunshine will allow highs to peak in upper 80s
to lower 90s across the region...with heat index values a few
degrees higher. Thus...have gone a 2-3 degrees above guidance for
highs.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not many changes to the long
term forecast. An upper level trough will remain overhead through
Monday. A few short waves will move through, resulting in an
unsettled weather pattern with a good chance for convection each
day. The upper level trough overhead will slowly push east by
midweek, giving way to upper level ridging as high pressure builds
back into the central US. Temperatures will rise back to slightly
above normal as the high strengthens. While thunderstorm
probabilities will be lower, a few weak disturbances will crest the
ridge and drop into our area for the second half of the workweek.
There will be enough instability and moisture present to produce
scattered thunderstorm chances as these disturbances move through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             93  74  92  73 /  30  30  40  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  73  89  71 /  30  30  40  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       91  72  90  70 /  40  30  40  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  68  87  67 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

AMP/EMH



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