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Area Forecast Discussion

697
FXUS64 KMRX 280755
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
355 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TN BORDER. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNRISE...WITH A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TODAY...WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS LONG
WAVE TROUGH. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH WILL BE THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL SET UP THE FORECAST
PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
AUTUMN-TYPE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE ABNORMALLY LOW TEMPERATURES OF UP TO
10 TO PERHAPS 15 DEGREES BELOW THAN NORMAL AS THE THE MERCURY IS
PROGGED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...A PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO
KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY
SPOTTY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT PARENT LOW ON FRIDAY...SENDING
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOLER AUTUMN-LIKE AIR INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PROVIDE
THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY IN DAYS 6 AND 7 TO A SOLID CHANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             87  63  81  59 /  10  10  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  85  62  79  57 /  20  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       85  62  79  56 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              81  57  76  53 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/AMP



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