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Area Forecast Discussion

766
FXUS64 KMRX 170629
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
229 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE
FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE HAS ONCE AGAIN LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...MOUNTAINS AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY. THIS FOG/CLOUD COVER WILL
LINGER UNTIL MID-MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING BEGINS. WITH THE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE WITH THE
CONTINUED COOLER...POSTFRONTAL AIR MASS PROMOTING HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S. TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CLOUD COVER/FOG ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...
WITH LOWS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP AND VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH 12Z
MODEL RUNS. NW FLOW ALOFT AND ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT (DRY) EASES
THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS
FRIDAY...FLEXING NE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION SATURDAY...THEN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS CARVES OUT AN UPPER TROUGH TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER GENERALLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE THE
00Z GFS...SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FORECAST GRIDS CHANGED VERY LITTLE...OTHER THAN A FEW MAX/MIN TEMP
AJUSTMENTS. NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP ON THE WARMER DAYS...BUT STAYED JUST
BELOW GFSX MOS ON DAYS FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. GAVE A BIT MORE
RANGE IN MINS FROM CHA TO TRI ON A FEW NIGHTS...DUE TO DRY AIRMASS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  58  81  59 /  10  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  76  56  78  57 /  10  10   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       76  55  78  56 /  10  10   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              75  51  73  52 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



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