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Area Forecast Discussion

191
FXUS64 KMRX 240701
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
A persistence forecast will continue to be followed for the short
term. Temperatures will continue to be well above normal today as
the persistent high pressure ridge remains over the region through
the period. With the dry soil conditions and rising low level
thicknesses, temperatures will continue to trend upward, and will
be close to record highs today at CHA (record of 94) and TYS
(record of 93). TRI will be close but likely stay below its record
of 92.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Only a few more days of well above normal temperatures as we
continue to sit under a ridge of high pressure situated over the
eastern half of the United States. Temperatures will once again
flirt with 90 degrees on Sunday before we start a cool down. That
cool down will come with a trough/low moving across northern
U.S./Canada and a bringing a cold front with it. Ahead of the front
moisture will begin to be drawn up from the Gulf of Mexico and we
could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms, but the best
chances for widespread precipitation will come with the actual
frontal passage. Models are still in a bit of disagreement with the
timing of the actual passage, but are slowly coming into agreement
with each other. Right now it looks to occur Monday into Tuesday
with some of the highest rain chances occurring Monday afternoon
into Monday night. Rain chances will quickly come to an end after
the front passes and we will return to dry conditions by Tuesday
night. Some good news is that the ridge behind this frontal system
looks to be weaker than the one currently over us, so high
temperatures are not expected to be as high through the rest of the
week. In fact, high temperatures through much of the work week are
expected to remain right around normal for this time of year,
generally hovering in the upper 70`s to lower 80`s.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  67  93  68 /   0   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  92  64  90  67 /   0   0  10  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       92  63  90  67 /   0   0  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              90  60  87  63 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



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