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Area Forecast Discussion

412
FXUS64 KMRX 310650
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
250 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.Short Term (Today through Thursday)...
Warm and muggy day. Afternoon convection originating over hier
terrain will dot the landscape through evening. H5 troughing
developing over the Great Lakes and New england will push a cold
front through the area Thursday, which will be the day with the
best areal coverage of precip. But drier air and seasonable
temperatures will follow the front. Expecting rainfall Thursday to
be ending by evening most locations.

.Long Term (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The long-term forecast is rather inactive weather wise. However, a
few of the models want to hold onto showers and storms across the
higher elevations along the TN/NC line into the overnight hours
Thursday night. Due to this, extended a slight chance mention of
PoPs until early Friday morning. Model trends with the 00z suite of
model runs are keeping precipitation in across higher elevations
throughout much of the day Friday. At the same time, the tropical
system will be moving to the NE across the GA and SC coast. Expect
most of the moisture will remain near the tropical system.
Therefore, left the forecast dry for now but could see an increase
in PoPs for Friday if model trends continue.

An upper level trough will move across the region on Saturday. PW
values at this time will be under an inch and the system will have
limited moisture to work with. The recent 00z ECMWF and GFS indicate
the possibility of a few scattered showers and storms with this
trough on Saturday but the lack of moisture should keep conditions
dry. By Sunday, NW flow aloft will develop as the trough departs to
the SE with a ridge building in across the area to start the week.
Dry conditions are expected to continue into next week with the
ridge in place and dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Temperatures will generally be cooler than normal in the extended. A
noticeable change will be apparent behind the front with highs in
the upper 70s to 80s over the weekend and lows in the mid 50s to low
60s. Temperatures will begin to rebound some early next week with
the rising upper level heights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  72  90  67 /  20  20  40   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  70  86  64 /  20  20  40  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       92  71  86  63 /  20  20  40   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              89  66  82  59 /  20  20  50  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

GC/MA



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