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Area Forecast Discussion

536
FXUS64 KMRX 091959
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
259 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...EVENT IS ROLLING
ALONG WITH PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH
THE LIGHT PRECIP...AND SEEM TO BE RUSHING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
TOO FAST.  HAVE GONE WITH SLOWER CLEARING OF POPS AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. STEADY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE THERE AS WELL...ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD KEEP
STACKING UP INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.  STILL LOOKING LIKE BRISK WINDS
WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES VERY COLD DURING THIS PERIOD...AND HAVE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY STARTING AT 6PM THIS EVENING FOR THE E TN
MOUNTAINS...RUNNING UNTIL NOON ON THURSDAY.  WIND WILL VALUES WILL
BE IN THE -5 TO -15 RANGE FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON A MORE TRANQUIL PATTERN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS
BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE GULF STATES AS PERSISTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. EARLIER...MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP.
MOVE DOWN WITH THIS TROUGH ON THURSDAY BUT HAVE BACKED OF OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST ON
THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH HIGHS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE
VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE ALSO
BACKED OFF ON THE PRECIP. WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT THE NORTHWEST
FLOW FAVORED AREAS WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE ARCTIC AIR
RETURNS. KEPT POPS IN THOSE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS BUT BACKED
OFF ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY WILL BE ON OF THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -20 TO -10 DEGREE
CELSIUS RANGE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

OVERALL...THE COLD WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH THE SYSTEM BREWING EARLY NEXT WEEK BEING THE MAIN HEADLINE IN
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TO DIFFER WITH THE SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ARE BEGINNING TO COME CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS.
ARCTIC AR WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND AS MENTIONED EARLIER.
ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE TROUGHS WILL PARTIALLY PHASE TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA WITH PRECIP SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD. THE GFS IS NOT SHOWING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE SYSTEM. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP PRECIP. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A STRONG
WEDGE IS IN PLACE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW BUT QPF
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT COMPARED TO THE OTHER RAW MODEL GUIDANCE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF...GEM AND SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE GULF COAST WITH A LOW TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF. IF THIS WERE THE CASE...THERE WOULD BE MUCH MORE
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM. THESE MODELS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL
DETAILS TO WORK OUT BEFORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE OF THE MANY DETAILS
IS THAT WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 1-3 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE COMPLICATIONS WITH PRECIP TYPE. WITH THE SYSTEM STILL 6
DAYS OUT...WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLE WITH JUST RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS.
ALSO...KEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY MUCH LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITH EVERY
MODEL RUN INDICATING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS BETWEEN NOW AND
MONDAY BUT THINGS HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-40 DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PRECIP TYPE ISSUES FURTHER SOUTH. FOR NOW...WILL ADD THE
MENTION OF SNOW INTO THE HWO AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             21  33  25  43 /  30  10   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  20  28  21  39 /  30  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       21  29  20  38 /  40  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              17  25  14  31 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHEROKEE-
     CLAY.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-UNICOI.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
     JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH
     SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-
     SEQUATCHIE-UNION-WEST POLK.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

GM/MA



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