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Area Forecast Discussion

083
FXUS64 KMRX 241845
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
RESULTING IN JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS
AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT REVEAL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH MAXES. WILL
GENERALLY COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO WHERE DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ON MONDAY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE VALLEY. THE
RIDGE WILL STAY OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY FOR CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH THROUGH AROUND THE WEDNESDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. TIMING IS IN QUESTION
BUT CURRENT MODELS PULL THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE AREA FOR A DRY
FRIDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  74  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  42  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       42  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              37  68  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/MJB



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