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Area Forecast Discussion

513
FXUS64 KMRX 201847
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
247 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WHILE THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS TOMORROW. EXPECT TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE NAM AND SREF PRODUCE A LITTLE AFTERNOON QPF IN THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU...BUT IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT ANY PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE
STABLE. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A
LIGHT SW WIND...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PASSING THROUGH DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. THEN STRONG UPPER RIDGE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS STATES
TUESDAY NIGHT TO SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE STRONGEST PART OF THIS SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. LIFT AND INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT SO
DON`T EXPECT MANY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHOUT
MUCH ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH EITHER...ONLY ABOUT
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

UPPER RIDGING BRINGS WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BACK
TO THE EAST TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WELL
DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE CANADIAN AND US BORDER AND
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES MOVES
EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION TO
INCREASE CLOUDS AND DEVELOP SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. FRIDAY GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FRONT MAY HANG
UP OR STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF TN FRIDAY NIGHT SO LEFT SMALL
CHANCES OF A FEW STORMS AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS SO GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. SUNDAY A FAST MOVING
SYSTEM AGAIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             50  77  58  73 /   0   0  40  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  49  76  56  72 /   0   0  30  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       49  77  56  72 /   0  10  40  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              42  75  51  71 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/TD



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