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Area Forecast Discussion

364
FXUS64 KMRX 060809
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
409 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTERLY DRIFT TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO TN
FROM THE WEST. MIDLEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL TODAY OVER
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP BROKEN CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP THAN
THE NAM TODAY...BUT THEIR PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER A TENTH ARE LIKELY TOO
MUCH GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE IN THE N-NW FLOW. WILL
HAVE POPS TODAY JUST FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF KNOXVILLE...AND GO
CLOSER TO THE NAM FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS. A DEEP MIXED
LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET SHOULD END ANY REMAINING SHOWERS BY
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HELPED BRING THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE SPINNING
ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM PRETTY QUICKLY IN RESPONSE. THEN AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER OUR AREA LEADING TO NEARLY
CONTINUOUS RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. HELPING KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND WILL BE A QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
STALL SOMEWHERE JUST NORTH OF THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER AND
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY LEADING TO
NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WE
WILL SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER OUR AREA TO ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING MOST OF THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD NEXT WEEK.
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHEN/WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS FAR OUT AS
CONVECTION FROM ONE DAY WILL LIKELY AFFECT CONVECTION THE NEXT DAY.
SOME OF THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY COME THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.

LOW LEVEL WINDS MOSTLY COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH AND WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  48  81  59 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  48  79  58 /  10   0  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  48  78  58 /  10   0  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              61  44  73  55 /  30  10  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



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