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Area Forecast Discussion

310
FXUS64 KMRX 041900
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER AT
THE SURFACE...PROMOTING ANOTHER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY
WARM DAY. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS SW VIRGINIA...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY
DISORGANIZED AND FAIRLY WEAK. AS A RESULT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY AGAIN...THOUGH A HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THESE
SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PROMOTE PATCHY FOG ALONG AREA LAKES AND RIVERS ONCE AGAIN... WITH
MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND TRIGGERING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
/THANKS TO A MOIST EASTERLY ATLANTIC FETCH/. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER...BUT IT WILL STILL BE A VERY WARM
DAY IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLING OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS THE AREA OF SOME
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL THEN TRANSITION
INTO A NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MAIN THREAT THOUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT
MOVING IN AROUND THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. TIMING THE MAIN
QUESTION WITH THIS BUT MODELS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  91  69  87 /  10  40  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  88  67  85 /  10  40  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  89  67  86 /  10  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  84  65  83 /  20  50  20  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP



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