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Area Forecast Discussion

549
FXUS64 KMRX 251515
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1115 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Frontal boundary is now south and west of the area. Warm advection
already taking place aloft...with associated quasi-stationary NW-
SE mid cloud band over Mid Tenn and SE Tenn. Main instability axis
is in W Tenn SEWD into Nrn AL...and should stay out there this
afternoon. The warm advection aloft is also supplying a capping
inversion that is most notable around 800mb on model soundings.
Moist surface air mass should be able to develop cumulus field this
afternoon...but capping inversion should keep cumulus fairly
shallow. Elevated terrain along spine of Appalachians will be the
closest exception as capping inversion is less prevalent. Could get
a few isolated showers/storms to develop near the spine...but will
quickly leave the forecast area in the NWLY upper flow. Keeping
previous set of Max Temps for this afternoon.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             96  73  94  74 /   0  10  40  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  70  91  71 /   0  10  30  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       93  70  92  71 /   0  10  30  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              88  66  90  67 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$





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