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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KMRX 311921

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
321 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight Through Thursday Night)...
Spotty convection this afternoon will wind down with sunset this
evening. Overnight will bring increasing cloudiness in advance of a
frontal boundary currently over central Ohio that will weaken as it
moves through the area by tomorrow afternoon. Limited moisture
coupled with frontal passage timing through our area will limit any
significant instability. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that
the main threat of thunderstorm activity should pass the Northern
and Central Valley by early evening and the Southern Valley by late
evening. A shortwave trough digging through the base of the 500 mb
longwave late tomorrow may result in an isolated evening shower or
two. Therefore kept slight chance POPs across much of the Tennessee
Valley until until near midnight. With NAM MLCAPE struggling to
reach 1400 J/Kg and SREF probabilities of MLCAPE greater than 1000
J/Kg low...at less than 50 percent chance, expect that any
activity which might develop into the evening to be isolated and
primarily showers instead of thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)...
Friday will likely be the most interesting day of the long term
portion of the forecast. Models are still slowing down a bit with
moving the moisture out of our area ahead of Tropical Storm Hermine
forecasted to move just to our southeast. Will mention precipitation
chances in the higher terrain of the Southern Appalachian Mountains
and a bit into the Tennessee Valley. Still expect the vast majority
of the higher dewpoints and precip to remain east of the mountains,
but depending on the exact track of the system we could get some
bleed over of moisture on the western edge. Low end precipitation
chances will continue through much of Friday and into the early
part of Saturday before the systems move out of our area.

Ridging and eventually dry northwest flow will settle in over the
region through the rest of the weekend and into the middle of next
week. Temperatures will start out below average through the weekend
and with the high pressure building in we will creep back above
normal early next week.


Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  91  70  86 /  10  40  20  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  87  66  82 /  20  40  20  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  87  66  83 /  20  40  20  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  83  63  79 /  20  50  20  20





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