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Area Forecast Discussion

086
FXUS64 KMRX 180646
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS LIKELY PREVENTED
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVER SW
VIRGINIA AND NE TENNESSEE HAS PROMOTED SOME PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE ONCE HEATING BEGINS AND THE DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPE. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE
PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY NICE WEATHER FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH JUST ONE WEAK SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY
EARLY MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SIMILIAR ON TIMING AND CONSISTENT FROM
12Z RUN...SO CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. I DID LOWER THE POPS A BIT FASTER AT 18Z MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...00Z GFSX MOS CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS...
AND ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF MOS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS ON DAYS WHEN THE SFC-850 MB FLOW SHIFTS TO
WEAK SOUTHERLY. MAX AND MIN TEMPS RUN GENERALLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             83  60  84  63 /   0   0  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  80  57  82  61 /   0   0  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  56  82  61 /   0   0  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              77  52  80  56 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/TG



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