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Area Forecast Discussion

515
FXUS64 KMRX 311424
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1024 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...NICE MORNING SETTING UP WITH LOTS OF INSOLATION AND
VERY FEW INHIBITING CLOUDS. WILL TWEAK MAX TEMPS UP IN A COUPLE
SPOTS WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF UPPER
MIDWEST COOL FRONT. WAS SKEPTICAL ABOUT DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE BUT NEW 12Z MODEL RUNS JUST
DON`T WANT TO LET GO OF POSSIBILITY OF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OF COURSE MOST OF THE THREAT COMES
FROM LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF WEAK MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SHORT WAVE DUE IN THE REGION LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST LOOKS ALRIGHT WITH ALL THIS IN MIND AND EVEN WEIGHTS
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE FIRST PERIOD WITH EXTENSION INTO
THE SECOND PERIOD. THUNDER ALSO NOT A BAD IDEA WITH CAPES POPPING
UP AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





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