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Area Forecast Discussion

219
FXUS64 KMRX 160713
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
313 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE VERY LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMDITIES AND FREEZE AND FROST CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS MOST LOCATIONS FOR TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY. LIKEWISE...
DRY AIR-MASS AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE RIDGE
TOPS...WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN. MOST VALLEYS AND
SHELTERED AREAS WILL SEE GOOD RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AREAS...FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS
OF FROST IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. HAVE ISSUED FREEZE WARNING/FROST
ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND GENERALLY REVEAL A QUIET PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TWO WEAK COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY DUE TO
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH THE MODELS
INDICATE WILL CUT OFF THE NORTHWARD FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SECOND
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL ALSO HAVE SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. THUS...WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF TSTORMS WITH THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...
WILL GENERALLY TREND COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  36  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  34  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  33  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  29  65  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
     HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-
     RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-
     WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





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