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Area Forecast Discussion

367
FXUS64 KMRX 022034
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
334 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...TEMPERATURES RISING WHERE
CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED...SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT TO REFLECT THIS. WARM FRONT WILL RISE NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY MORNING TUESDAY.
FAR NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
SNOW FLURRIES...BUT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... VERY COMPLICATED
FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...GREAT
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE NAM A BIT DRIER AND
WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS COLDER AND
WETTER.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY EVENING...
BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE VALLEY /ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS/ WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR EVENTS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE SLOWER
TREND AND SHOW THIS FRONT /ALONG WITH IT`S LIFT/PRECIPITATION FOCUS/
TO BE OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...SOME
HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG
THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS THAT STILL HAVE A SNOWPACK. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO EVEN LOW 60S /ALONG WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION/ WILL MELT ANY REMAINING SNOW. THIS...COMBINED WITH
THE HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES BY THE EVENING COULD LEAD
TO AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD
OVER THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE...QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER...SO A FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT NEEDED ATTM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY MAKE IT`S
WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL
FOLLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. THERE IS STILL GREAT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ARRIVAL OF
THE SUBFREEZING AIR AND WHAT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THIS SUBFREEZING
AIRMASS HAS BEEN KNOWN TO GET HUNG UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
PLATEAU...SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHING THE ICING THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE VALLEY IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS. SO THE QUESTION BECOMES...WHEN
DOES THIS AIR BLEED INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY? HAVE SOME CONFIDENCE
THAT AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS OF
EAST TENNESSEE WILL SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS...FOLLOWED
BY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE VALLEY...SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION A COLD RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...BEFORE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS AND THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. HAVE TRIED TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL VARIABILITY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED THIS
THINKING OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
VALLEY FOR NOW.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN...RESULTING IN
A DECREASING TEMPERATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION. WITH CLEARING OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT...A VERY COLD
FORECAST WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL RECOVERY WILL OCCUR BY
THE WEEKEND WITH A DRY FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  55  51  64 /  70  80  70  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  40  54  53  62 /  40  80  70  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  54  51  59 /  40  80  80  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              34  52  49  60 /  30  70  70  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

JW/AMP



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