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Area Forecast Discussion

791
FXUS64 KMRX 020544
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
145 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS LINGERING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.
WILL PLAN TO MENTION SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THAT HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY MAY KEEP THIS FOG FROM BECOMING TOO
DENSE TOWARDS SUNRISE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TAF SITES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE TN RIVER
VALLEY. THUS...A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FOR NOW...WILL ONLY
MENTION VCTS IN THE TAFS SINCE THE EXACT TIMING AT THE TAF SITES
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. OUTSIDE OF SOME FOG THIS MORNING AND
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG



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