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Area Forecast Discussion

865
FXUS64 KMRX 300720
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL PLACE EAST TENNESSEE UNDER THE FAVORED RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
DIRECT CIRCULATION AROUND THE JET WILL ENHANCE THE FRONTO-GENETIC
FORCING OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 08-10Z. A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BAND. CHA FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
09Z SHOWS ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE CURRENT CONVECTION OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE/NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.

AS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES EAST BY 12Z...CONVECTION WILL
MOVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING FAIRLY QUICKLY
AT CHA AND TYS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER AT TRI. ALL AREAS WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S MOST LOCATIONS. AREAS OF FROST
ARE LIKELY OVER TRI AND POSSIBLY TYS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CONTINUED WARM...EARLY SPRING-LIKE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WE CLOSER OUT MARCH AND BEGIN THE MONTH
OF APRIL. ON TUESDAY...SOME WEAK CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
MAY DRIFT INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY/PLATEAU BY THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WARMING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
00-06Z. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. THINK THAT WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER WARM/MOSTLY DRY DAY AS AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD.

RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY /WITH A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT/...SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BEFORE EXITING THE REGION SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. GIVEN SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...DID NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC THE
DETAILS JUST YET. HOWEVER...DO HAVE HIGH-END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF THEREAFTER. GIVEN
THE BULK SHEAR PROFILE AND SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE...THINK SOME
ORGANIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND THE TIMING OF THE MAIN FRONT SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THESE TRENDS. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN FOR EASTER SUNDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE HELPING CREATE A WARM AND PLEASANT
END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  40  73  49 /  30  10  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  62  38  70  45 /  20   0  10  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  37  71  45 /  20   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              57  33  66  39 /  30   0   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





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