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Area Forecast Discussion

033
FXUS64 KMRX 201859
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
259 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...NOT TOO EVENTFUL. FROPA WILL
OCCUR AND THEN WE WILL BEGIN TO FIND OUR NE SECTIONS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE. LOW POPS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH
FROPA...THEN THE CHANCE-OF-PRECIP AREA WILL GRADUALLY BE CONFINED
TO SW VA AND FAR NE TN TUESDAY. POST-FRONTAL MIXING WILL KEEP MIN
TEMPS TUESDAY A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER TUESDAY THAN TODAY. A BETTER COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...SEE BELOW.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT OVERALL AND SHOW A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER OUR AREA. SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO LINGER ESPECIALLY NORTH...BUT DOES NOT LOOK DEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS NORTHEAST THAN SOUTHWEST
EARLY. MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW/TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE AREA AROUND THE SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THIS LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE
STARVED SO NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND OFF TO OUR EAST LATE. SHOULD BE DRY AND
A BIT WARMER. WILL GENERALLY NOT STRAY FAR FROM GFS MOS TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             48  70  44  67 /  10   0   0   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  47  66  41  61 /  10  10  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       48  65  41  63 /  20  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              45  61  41  56 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

GC/LW



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