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Area Forecast Discussion

649
FXUS64 KMRX 310101 AAA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
901 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
BRINGS UPPER LOW LATE FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST. HONESTLY...I HAVE NEVER SEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DROP NEARLY DUE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. VERY UN-COMMON. THE FARTHER WEST TRACK BRINGS THE
COLDER UPPER LEVEL AIR (NEAR -30C AT 500MB) DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION WITH BETTER DYNAMICS. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY INTO THE TRI-CITIES AREA. MAIN QUESTION REMAINS...HOW
MUCH WILL THE SNOW STICK? SINCE THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE
NIGHT-TIME AND MORNING HOURS...THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE
OF THE SNOW STICKING ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES.
STILL THINK THE ROADWAYS SHOULD BE GOOD GIVEN THE WARMTH OF THE
GROUND.

IF THIS SYSTEM OCCURRED DURING JANUARY...WOULD HAVE BEEN A MUCH
DIFFERENT SNOW POTENTIAL. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL.

FOR TONIGHT...AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EVER-SO SLOWLY INTO THE AREA AND HAVE CHANGED
SKY FORECAST WORDING FOR TONIGHT.

WILL HAVE NEW ZFP AND WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  60  33  49 /   0  50  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  40  57  33  44 /   0  60  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  58  33  44 /   0  80  60  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  53  32  41 /   0  80  90  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI.

VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LEE-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$





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