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Area Forecast Discussion

701
FXUS64 KMRX 271916
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
316 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...AIR-MASS ACROSS THE
REGION IS QUITE DRY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY WITH PWS
NEAR 1 INCH...HOWEVER...INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE PLATEAU INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER
MISSISSIPPI...MOVES EAST NORTHEASTWARD. THIS AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

FOR THURSDAY...AIRMASS WILL HAVE MOISTEN AREA-WIDE. BESIDES
TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE CHANCES LOW.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO LIFT INVOLVED WITH THESE STORMS...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS LIMITED...SO EXPECT MINOR CONVECTION WITH VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE. SUNDAY...A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING AROUND
SUNRISE. LIFT AND WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WEAK...SO EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM TO BE SHORT LIVED.

LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SLOWLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW OVER
THE AREA WILL AGAIN SET UP FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER IN TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME ON COVERAGE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE
EAST...TAKING OUR AREA OUT OF THE MOISTURE FED SOUTHERN
FLOW...LIMITING ANY RAIN OR THUNDER TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGE DAY TO DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  82  66  85 /  50  50  20  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  81  65  83 /  20  30  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  81  64  83 /  30  40  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  82  63  82 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





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