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Area Forecast Discussion

405
FXUS64 KMRX 310719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
319 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL HELP PULL
SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LIFTS NORTHEAST...EASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE LIFT IS BEST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT
DIFFER SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AN SATURDAY. AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITHIN
THE LONG WAVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PULL
SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EACH OF THESE DAYS. THE LONG WAVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE NATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR TEMPS... WILL
TREND COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             81  64  81  65 /  20  40  50  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  64  80  64 /  20  50  50  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       81  62  80  64 /  10  40  50  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              80  61  78  61 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$





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