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Area Forecast Discussion

955
FXUS64 KMRX 230901
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
401 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. THE SE 850 JET...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 TO 60
KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PLUS A STABLE LAYER SUPPORT UPGRADING THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SRN VALLEY WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ONSET OF MEASURABLE
RAINS FOR THOSE AREAS...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS.

SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS LACKING...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING...WAS WORTH
ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SE TN AND SW NC COUNTIES.

THE SE FLOW SHIFTS TO SW BY 03Z MONDAY AND THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS
MAY BE DECREASING BY THEN. HOWEVER...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...COULD REQUIRE AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY FOR 06Z
TO 12Z MONDAY. THUS...OPTED TO KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH
12Z MONDAY FOR NOW.

MAX TEMPS TODAY ARE CHALLENGING...GIVEN ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE
IN TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM 34 DEGS AT TRI TO 56 DEGS AT CHA.
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT SHOULD ADD A FEW DEGREES FOR CENTRAL AND NRN
VALLEY AREAS. THE GFS MOS MAX TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSLOPE WARMING. MINS TONIGHT SHOULD BE
QUITE MILD GIVEN THE STRONG SW WINDS AND NO FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS BRING IN MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT MONDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS STILL STRONG OUT OF THE SW
AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND ADVISORY OR DOWNGRADE HIGH
WIND WARNING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS WITH NAM MODEL WETTER AND WARMER THAN GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD AS WELL IN THE 60S. INITIAL FRONT TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN SECONDARY FRONT TO FOLLOW IN THE EVENING. COLD AND
DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT ENDING PRECIPITATION AND DROPPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. TUESDAY AND
MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT ARE DRY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST BUT MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND DOWN INTO THE TN
VALLEY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE VALLEY. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...PROBABLY LESS THAN ONE INCH. COLD UPPER TROUGH IS REINFORCED
AS PRECIPITATION SHIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM IN NW
FLOW CROSSES NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT AGAIN ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORE COOL AND DRY WEATHER AS UPPER TROUGH STAYS OVER EASTERN US.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             60  53  62  35 /  90  50  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  59  51  64  33 /  90  60  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       59  51  62  33 /  90  50  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  48  65  32 /  90  70  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-
     JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

VA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.

&&

$$

TG/TD



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