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Area Forecast Discussion

113
FXUS64 KMRX 070826
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
326 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
CLOUD COVER HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE
SUNSHINE LATER TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS...PUSH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER MUCH OF THE
VALLEY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW
FREEZING ALONG THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PLATEAU LATE
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE 32 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DRAMATICALLY AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR IN THE 06-12Z TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT ARE BELOW FREEZING.
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN...WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW MIXED AROUND
DAYBREAK...WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. PLEASE SEE THE SPS FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EXPECTED WINTER WEATHER.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEVELOPING LONG-WAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE
DEEP LONG-WAVE TROUGH REMAINS HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH BEST JET DYNAMICS MOVING THROUGH MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE MORNIN. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL ALSO BE A BIG FACTOR FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AS
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL CAPES MONDAY WILL
BE BETWEEEN 100- 150 J/KG AND 50-75 J/KG TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR MONDAY...LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL FAVOR A
MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW LOWER ELEVATIONS/PLATEAU AND ALL SNOW HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS A GOOD DEAL OF MIXING OCCURS MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
SHOWERS...LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL COOL QUICKLY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW AREA-WIDE.

MODEL SHOW FAIRLY DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
COLD AIR SQUEEZING OUT MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. LONG DURATION OF EVENT WILL FAVOR MORE OF AN ADVISORY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND HIGH KNOB...VA...
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER 48-60 HOURS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES.

WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS WITHIN THE HWO AND SPS. DUE TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION MONDAY...DID NOT FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE. HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MORNING...THEN DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BESIDES THE SNOW...COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES
WILL PRODUCE UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS.  HIGHS WILL BE SOME 15 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.

SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. A SLOW MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             56  35  45  27 /   0  40  50  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  54  34  42  26 /   0  50  60  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       54  33  43  25 /   0  60  60  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              50  29  41  25 /   0  40  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/DH



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