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Area Forecast Discussion

198
FXUS64 KMRX 011910
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
310 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)...Dry air continues to
cling onto the Tennessee Valley with afternoon dewpoints in the
middle to upper 50`s across much of the area. Meanwhile dewpoints
in Middle Tennessee and Central Kentucky have climbed back into
the low to middle 60`s. All of this should help to keep us dry for
the overnight and early portion of Saturday with only prospect for
convection being an isolated and dissipating cell that develops NW
of our CWA and is able to survive into our NW counties. Otherwise
expecting a pleasant overnight.

Slow recovery of low-level moisture tomorrow will continue to
limit prospects of convection, and that which is able to develop
in fairly weak instability (MLCAPE barely to 700 J/kg and SBCAPE
approaching 1400 J/kg) should be confined to higher terrain and SW
VA counties. All said, only included slight chance in these areas
for Saturday afternoon. Saturday afternoon highs should be a few
degrees less than today given increased cloudiness. Maximum temps
aligned fairly well with 1200 UTC GFS MOS Guidance.

.LONG TERM....(Saturday night through Friday)...For Saturday
night, expect just a slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm over
southwest Virginia. There is a better chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms -- especially across the higher terrain --on
Sunday as moisture continues to increase overhead and a weak
shortwave cycles through.

A low pressure system will build across the Midwest and push east on
Monday. Precipitation chances will increase ahead of the associated
upper level trough, resulting in a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the afternoon/evening hours on the Fourth of July.
However, there are still differences between the GFS/NAM and ECMWF
with regards to precipitation location and coverage -- with the
GFS/NAM having higher POPs over eastern Tennessee throughout the day
and the the ECMWF keeping the bulk of the precipitation over
southwest Virginia and points northward.  Precipitation chances will
linger for Tuesday and Wednesday with the resultant frontal boundary
serving as a focus for scattered mainly diurnal convection.

Upper level high pressure builds back into the region for the
remainder of the workweek. As a result, high temperatures will be
near to just a little above normal. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly each afternoon/evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  92  70  94 /  10  10  10  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  88  69  91 /  10  10  10  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  88  69  91 /  10  10  10  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  84  65  86 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$





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