« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » JAX Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

097
FXUS62 KJAX 261808
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
207 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ENHANCED NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND CRISTOBAL TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE MAIN
BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH...MAINLY AFFECTING NE FL THE REST OF TODAY.

SOUNDING DATA SHOWS WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT THUS EXPECTING
SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. THEREFORE...A BRIEF GUSTY HEAVY
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED.

AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND CRISTOBAL MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TONIGHT. THUS WILL CONFINE SHOWERS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN
ORIENTATION THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
COASTAL NE FL COUNTIES...WITH LOWS A LITTLE LOWER FURTHER INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /WED-THU/...

WED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND THE
LIGHT N/NE STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A DRIER AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS RAIN-FREE EXCEPT ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND FLAGLER COUNTY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH LOWER
90S FURTHER INLAND.

WED NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR MIN
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 60S OVER INLAND AREAS AND 70-75 RANGE ALONG
THE RIVER/COAST. LOWER 60S OVER INLD AREAS OF SE GA AND MIDDLE 60S
WEST OF JAX ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF NORTH FL WILL ACTUALLY BE
JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF AUGUST 28TH.

THU...HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY BREAKS DOWN WITH A WEAK FLOW PATTERN
IN PLACE...POSSIBLY A LIGHT E/SE STEERING FLOW BUT AIRMASS STILL
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND ONLY A SLIGHT REBOUND OF MOISTURE UP THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN NORTH FLORIDA WITH BEST CHANCES
SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE ATLC COAST
SBRZ FRONT MOVES INLAND. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR
MAX TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S OVER INLAND AREAS AND
NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /FRI-TUE/...

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WRN ATLC
ACROSS NE FL/SE GA WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND WITH THE STEERING FLOW MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECT BEST CHANCES TO
REMAIN INLAND. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND MIN TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL COME ASHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECT MOST OF THESE SHOWERS TO
AFFECT KJAX/KCRG/KVQQ TAF SITES...WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR KSSI/KGNV.
THESE SHOWERS WILL PROVIDE BRIEF GUSTY DOWNPOURS...WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN AND NEAR SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND CRISTOBAL
WILL LESSEN TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND CRISTOBAL TRACKS OFF
TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A PERIOD OF FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS.

RIP CURRENTS...HIGH RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY. EXPECT MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO SWELLS FROM CRISTOBAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING SOUTH OVER INLAND AREAS WILL DROP MIN RH
VALUES INTO THE 30-35% RANGE ACROSS INLD SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY BOTH WED/THU AFTERNOONS...BUT STILL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  93  62  96 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  74  87  72  88 /  20  10  10  10
JAX  73  89  66  91 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  75  88  72  89 /  30  10  10  10
GNV  69  92  67  93 /  10   0   0  20
OCF  69  94  69  94 /  10   0   0  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS/WALKER





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.