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Area Forecast Discussion

428
FXUS62 KJAX 171813
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
213 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE
APPROACHING MAINLY THE SE GA COAST...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
MAKING IT ONSHORE. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS LATE AFTN
INTO THE EVENING. THE THICK CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS PLAGUED
THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING OUT SOME.
WILL USE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF STACKED LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE. GIVEN A SLOWER
TREND...WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS OUT OF THE AREA TNGT...WITH MAINLY
LOW/MID END SCATTERED POPS BY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLY
MILD LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FAR INLAND WITH 60 TO 65 CLOSER TO
THE COAST WILL PREVAIL.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH THE 12Z NAM STILL FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT
CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL GENERALLY USE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
WITH PRECIP INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL AREAS BY LATER FRIDAY AFTN AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SLOWLY BY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER SE GA WITH
THE GREATEST LIFT/MOISTURE EXITING INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. A DEEP
MOISTURE TAP WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE RATHER WET ANTECEDENT SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA INTO
NE FL...WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS FOR FRIDAY AFTN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TRACK BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF...THINK
THE STRONG/SEVERE TSTM WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSTMS FOR NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL FL FRIDAY
AFTN/NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ACROSS SE GA WILL HELD DOWN INTO THE
60S...WITH MILDER LOWER/MID 70S FOE NE FL. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TNGT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT HAVE ENOUGH SIMILARITIES TO CONCLUDE THAT ON
SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL PHASE
TOGETHER OVER OUR REGION. SIGNIFICANT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
OVER SE GA...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY PERSIST EARLY SAT MORNING FOR SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AS RAIN CHANCES DECREASE. BETWEEN THE RAIN
AND ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT MORE SUN OVER THE SRN ZONES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER 70S. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO END FROM SW TO NE SAT
NIGHT...BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUN FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 AT THE COAST.

STACKED CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SAT NIGHT/SUN...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR
REGION. DESPITE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM W TO E...HIGHS INLAND
CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH UPPER 60S. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUE AND ASSOCD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
LIMITED PRECIP. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN PREVAIL MID WEEK...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WED/THUR. WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS GA MAY PRODUCE LOW END POPS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS IS FORECAST THRU FRIDAY. IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. STRONG
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-20G25KT...THEN DECREASE BELOW 12 KT
AROUND 01Z AT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT AT SSI. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
WITH VCSH BEGINNING 08Z. MORE STEADY RAIN ARRIVING BETWEEN
13Z-14Z FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NE FLOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SCA
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL LEGS...AND FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS/SURF: HIGH RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. SURF HEIGHTS 4 TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  62  54  67 /  40 100 100  50
SSI  60  64  60  66 /  30 100 100  60
JAX  61  73  60  67 /  30 100  90  50
SGJ  64  73  63  69 /  30 100  90  50
GNV  61  76  60  70 /  40 100  90  40
OCF  63  78  62  72 /  40  90  80  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/TRABERT/MCALLISTER






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