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Area Forecast Discussion

693
FXUS62 KJAX 222007
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
407 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY/...

High pressure ridge will sink South this period, and become
centered Southeast of the region.

Onshore flow this afternoon and evening, will help push the East
coast sea breeze further inland, focusing best convective chances
into the I75 corridor, where the East coast sea breeze and West
coast sea breeze could interact.

Convection will diminish over land after sunset this evening with
loss of diurnal heating.

With the surface ridge weakening and moving to the Southeast, the
onshore flow will not be as strong Saturday, so the East coast
should not push inland as fast. This will result in a better chance
for convection over Eastern half of forecast area early in the
afternoon, with this area moving West during the mid to late
afternoon.

Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages this period.

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night...Inland convection will taper off Saturday evening
with drier airmass over the area ahead of a mid level trough approaching
the central Florida peninsula from the Atlantic. Otherwise...mostly
dry conditions expected overnight with low temps in the mid 70s.

Sunday through Monday night...There is less confidence in the
forecast for the latter half of the weekend into early next week
as there is still some disagreement in model solutions handling
the mid level trough that is forecast to pass over the Florida
peninsula Sunday into Monday. Drier air on Sunday should keep
coverage of daily showers and storms mostly scattered across
inland areas as sea breeze develops during the afternoon. Moisture
levels increase on Monday but coverage should still remain
scattered during the afternoon with temps warming aloft as trough
pushes off to the west and ridge builds back in. Max temps in the
low/mid 90s are expected inland with upper 80s/low 90s along the
coast. Low temps remain in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...Western extent of stacked
ridge will build in over the area Tuesday through Thursday. South
to southwesterly flow will prevail each day as sfc high remains
centered to our east with scattered afternoon showers and storms
expected. Temperatures will rise through midweek as upper ridge
slowly shifts over the region with highs in the mid to upper 90s
possible Wednesday and Thursday. Low temps remain in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected this 18z TAF period.
Scattered thunderstorms could effect KGNV this afternoon, causing
brief restrictions and gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak ridge of high pressure will be East/Southeast of area waters
through the middle of next week. The resulting flow will generally
be Southerly. Due to the temperature differential between the land
and water Tonight, a land breeze may develop overnight, which would
cause a Westerly wind late night into early morning.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  98  74  95 /  10  30  10  40
SSI  78  92  78  91 /  10  10  20  30
JAX  73  94  75  93 /  10  20  10  30
SGJ  75  91  76  90 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  72  94  73  93 /  20  30  20  40
OCF  72  94  73  94 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Guillet/Struble/Walker



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