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Area Forecast Discussion

111
FXUS62 KJAX 010734
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH
W/SW FLOW...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE BIG BEND AREA
WITH A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT.
WILL USE ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE ENTERING PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
FL. FOR OTHER AREAS...SOME LIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST PRECIP TUESDAY AFTN...BUT SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...WITH DEEP WSW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTN. THIS IMPULSE DOES NOT LOOK AS POTENT AS THE
SHORTWAVE YESTERDAY...THUS COVERAGE OF AFTN TSTMS LOOK A BIT LESS
THAN TUESDAY. WILL USE MID/HIGH END SCATTERED POPS FOR SE GA INTO
NE FL...WITH A SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL.
WITH THE LESS POTENT WAVE...THINK ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE LESS OF A PROBABILITY...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE AS LAPSE RATES LOOK SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SEASONABLY
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND
TO AROUND 90 COAST. RESIDUAL CONVECTION EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

THURSDAY...THE MEAN LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
MOVE LITTLE. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A MORE POTENT WAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. WILL USE MAINLY HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA CLOSEST TO THE WAVE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTN. HIGHS WILL BE 1-2 DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS AFTN.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AROUND SRN FL AREA AND THEN
SLOWLY LIFT NWD WITH BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS. ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR CLIMATE NORMALS WITH PWATS NEAR
1.75 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY MORE WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD PRIMARILY DIURNAL
CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINLY WSW TO SW SO EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT
EVENING CONVECTION THU NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SCT
MAINLY AFTN CONVECTION EXPECTED FRI WITH WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
DOMINATE BOUNDARY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ISOLD TO SCT
CONVECTION FRI NIGHT WILL AGAIN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SOME ISOLD
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT WITH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SERN GA AND THE FL BIG BEND BUT
TIMING AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BERMUDA SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EDGE FURTHER NWD INTO NRN FL DURING
THE WEEKEND AND THEN SHIFT BACK SLOWLY SWD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER NE FL. FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...MOISTURE
PROFILES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH AFTN INSTABILITY TO
GENERATE SCT CONVECTION EACH DAY. GFS SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRES SYSTEM MOVING SSW INTO OUR REGION MON AND TUE BUT EURO MODEL
WEAKER WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND FURTHER EWD. THUS...TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS TO GO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT COVERAGE
EACH DAY SO POPS ARE MAINTAINED IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW.
HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE 08-12Z IN BR. WITH TSTM COVERAGE SCATTERED...WILL
USE VCTS FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST UNDER
CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  72  93  72 /  40  30  50  30
SSI  88  75  87  75 /  30  30  40  30
JAX  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  40  30
SGJ  90  74  89  75 /  30  20  40  20
GNV  92  72  92  72 /  30  20  40  20
OCF  92  73  93  73 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SHASHY



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