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Area Forecast Discussion

640
FXUS62 KJAX 261922
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...

CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
UNDER BREEZY NW WINDS THIS AFTN. HIGH TEMPS REACHED NEAR 60 DEG
OVER INLAND SE GA MIDDAY WITH TEMPS STILL CLIMBING OVER NE FL IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING WHILE RELAXING TO AROUND 5 MPH AROUND SUNSET
AHEAD OF A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WHICH WAS PRESSING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WHILE THE REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE GA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 3-5 MPH OVER SE GA WHILE WINDS WILL
DROP NEAR CALM OVER INLAND NE FL UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE RIVER BASIN AND COAST. FROST
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN DRY AIR IN PLACE.

THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30
MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LOW TEMPS ON THANKSGIVING NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT FREEZES POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MAX TEMPERATURE
READINGS AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LIGHT FREEZES POSSIBLE FOR
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 40S NEAR THE COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE AND THE ENSUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MILD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL CONTINUE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

DROPPED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS AND REPLACED WITH
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH RUNS THROUGH THU NIGHT. NW WINDS
TODAY WILL BACK TO THE W TONIGHT AND DECREASE SOME AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE THU MORNING
TRAILING THE COLD FRONT TO NW 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE...15-20 KTS
NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE
LEGS THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION
FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER ONSHORE BY
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE LOCAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND LOW RISK LIKELY THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  39  58  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  46  61  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  41  61  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  44  62  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  38  63  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  39  64  34  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/







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