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Area Forecast Discussion

125
FXUS62 KJAX 021416
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1016 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...EAST OF STATE ROUTE 301...BEGINS WITH SSE FLOW WITH OUR
REGION ON THE PRECIPICE OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
ATLANTIC. WEST OF STATE ROUTE 301...BEGINS WITH A SSW FLOW. THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE APPEARS TO BE A MERGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS SHOW CONVECTION
INITIATING NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THERE IS A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION
INDICATED ALONG THE CENTRAL PENINSULA MERGER THAT WILL BE ISOLD
TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. WITH THE FLOW DOMINATED BY SWLY
STEERING LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE
PUSHED TOWARD THE SE GA AND NE FL COASTS DURING THE EARLY-MID
PART OF THE EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
APPREARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF LINE FROM LAKE CITY TO PONTE
VEDRA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 FCST...BUT CLOSER TO MID 80S AT THE E COAST BEACHES DUE TO ATLC
SEA BREEZE. T-STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...THEN LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN. WITH PROBABILITIES
BELOW 50 PERCENT AT TAF SITES KEPT ONLY 1 OR 2 SITES WITH VICINITY
SHOWER WORDING AT THIS TIME. VCTS MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT
TAF FCST THIS AFTN/EVENING FOR COASTAL TAFS SITES AS WELL AS JAX
AND VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF AREA WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SLY FLOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE AS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY. BREEZY NW FLOW
EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
WELL W AND NW OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEK. MAIN SHORT TERM
HAZARD FOR MARINERS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  68  84  63 /  40  40  70  50
SSI  83  71  83  67 /  20  40  60  50
JAX  89  70  87  67 /  20  30  50  50
SGJ  85  71  86  69 /  20  30  40  50
GNV  89  69  86  67 /  20  20  40  40
OCF  88  69  85  68 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/HESS/WALKER



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