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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KJAX 230150

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
950 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

Evening surface analysis depicts low pressure (1006 millibars)
deepening east of the Virginia Capes, with a trailing cold front
entering south Florida. Weak high pressure (1015 millibars) was
slowly building into our region from the northwest. Aloft, an
intense cutoff low was slowly pushing southward over Virginia,
with a deep trough digging along the U.S. eastern seaboard. A thin
blanket of high cirrus blowing off from distant convection over
the western and central Gulf of Mexico is progressing across
northeast and north central Florida, with fair skies over
southeast Georgia. These clouds will exit from west to east after
midnight, setting up excellent radiational cooling conditions over
our area. Lows on Monday morning will fall to about 5 degrees
below late May climo, with mid/upper 50s inland and low/mid 60s at
the beaches. A dry northwesterly flow aloft will prevail on
Monday, with a loose local pressure gradient allowing for sea
breeze development during the afternoon hours. Plenty of sunshine
and unseasonably low humidity values will allow highs to rebound
to near climo, with upper 80s expected inland and low/mid 80s at
the coast.


VFR conditions will prevail. The Atlantic sea breeze will push
inland during the afternoon hours on Monday, with surface winds
shifting to a northeasterly direction around 10 knots at SGJ
towards 16Z and at the Duval County terminals and SSI between


Weak high pressure will continue to filter into our region from
the northwest...keeping mostly offshore winds in place through
Monday morning. Our local pressure gradient will weaken enough for
sea breeze development in the near shore waters on Monday
afternoon. High pressure will then build along the Carolina coast
on Tuesday and only slowly move eastward through Friday. This
weather pattern will result in onshore winds developing on
Tuesday, with a gradual increase in mainly easterly winds by
Thursday and especially on Friday. Headlines will not be needed
through at least early Friday, with wind speeds and possibly seas
approaching the caution range towards late Friday.

RIP CURRENTS: Low risk expected through Tuesday.


AMG  56  86  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  64  83  69  83 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  59  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  65  85  68  83 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  59  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  60  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0


.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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