« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » JAX Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

301
FXUS62 KJAX 250740
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
340 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY...

...STRONG COLD FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK LOW OFFSHORE THE SE GA COAST CONTINUES T0 MOVE
SLOWLY NW AND WAS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY
DRIZZLE. THE NAM12 MOVES THE LOW ONSHORE THE UPPER SE GA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING AND EXITS TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON DENSE FOG
ALTHOUGH PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. PATCHES
OF DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL
AROUND NOON.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND BUT REMAINING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS AFTERNOON
HEATING INTERACTS WITH SEABREEZES BUT DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND CAP WILL
HELP PRECLUDE MOST CONVECTION. WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DRY MID LEVEL AIR...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL POSSIBLE AGAIN.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MOVES TO THE SE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE INVERTED TROUGH EXITS TO THE NORTH. A
STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS
RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT WARMING AS WINDS VEER TO THE SW OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED ESPECIALLY AT THE MID LEVELS AND
ALONG WITH PERSISTENT CAP BETWEEN 850-700 MB SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER GFS DOES INDICATE MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES
INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND SE...OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO PUT IN CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA FOR LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACTOSS MOST AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ON WARM S TO SW WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... RESIDUAL PRECIP FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...ENTERING SE GA LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT...CROSSING NE FL FRIDAY MORNING...EXITING INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY AFTN. WILL USE LIKELY POPS WITH THE FRONTAL
APPROACH/CROSSING DECREASING RAPIDLY FRIDAY AFTN. GIVEN FRONTAL
TIMING/MINOR INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP A S SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
MAINLY ACROSS NE FL...WITH LITTLE OR NO TSTM THREAT FOR SE GA. WITH
THE RATHER QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT...WITH 0.25-0.50 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND
ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
CHILLIEST NIGHT IN SOME TIME...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S INLAND. A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA
MONDAY BUT DISSIPATE BEFORE CROSSING THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF VLIFR VSBY IN FOG BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. LOW CIGS/FOG WILL
BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE WED AM...NOT ENDING AT KGNV TIL MID-
MORNING...THEN JAX/CRG/VQQ BY LATE MORNING...AND CLOSE TO NOON FOR
SSI. ANY INSOLATION WILL QUICKLY RE-DEVELOP A BROKEN CU FIELD
RANGING FROM 2500FT/KSSI TO 3500FT/JAX/CRG/VQQ AND CLOSER TO 4000 FT
AT GNV. WILL ALSO HAVE SPOTTY DRIZZLE THRU MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY AS
THE COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO SE GA AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MAY
HAVE LINGERING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.
WINDS VEER AND INCREASE BEGINNING TONIGHT...WITH SCEC POSSIBLE
OFFSHORE...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SE AND A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO APPROACH THE AREA. THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS OFFSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY
DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING EAST SWELLS RESULTS IN A
CONTINUED MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. OFFSHORE WINDS
INCREASE THURSDAY AND THE RISK WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  56  82  61 /  20  20  30  50
SSI  72  59  77  63 /  20  20  20  20
JAX  78  58  84  68 /  20  20  20  20
SGJ  74  63  81  67 /  20  20  20  20
GNV  82  58  85  65 /  20  20  20  30
OCF  83  58  86  66 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.