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Area Forecast Discussion

030
FXUS62 KJAX 281336
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
936 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY AND SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SE GA...

...RECORD MAX MINS THIS MORNING AT GNV AND AMG...

.UPDATE...A MUGGY HUMID START TO THE DAY WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND A LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF THE WARM GOMEX.
RECORD MAX MIN TEMPS WERE REACHED THIS MORNING:

SITE NEW RECORD PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
GNV 77 76/1992
AMG 78 76/2011

BOTH JAX AND SSI CAME WITHIN 1 DEG OF TYING THE RECORD MAX MIN
TEMP FOR THE DATE AT 79.

A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER THE GULF COAST
MOVING INLAND OVER MARION COUNTY WITH INCREASED WLY FLOW AROUND
25 KTS NEAR 1000 FT AGL PER THE 12Z JAX RAOB. VISIBLE SATELLITE
ALSO SHOWED ENHANCED CU POPPING OVER THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE FL ATLANTIC COAST WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY SHALLOW IN
NATURE GIVEN STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING AND ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR PER THE TAE/JAX RAOBS THIS MORNING.

AS AFTN APPROACHES...EXPECT MORE POPCORN SHOWERS WILL FORM ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. IN ADDITION TO INCREASED
MECHANICAL FORCING...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN DEEP LAYER DESTABILIZATION
WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -7 DEG. WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S AND LOW/MID 70 DEW PTS...IN ADDITION TO THE SWELTERING
HEAT TODAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG AFTN
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING WHERE FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST AS THE
BOUNDARY NEARS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THROUGH 00Z. SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOW INCREASED BULK SHEAR AND FAT CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...SO IN ADDITION TO THE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL
ZONES TODAY DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND LOW/MID LEVEL DRY
AIR...ALSO BELIEVE STORMS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
DROPPING HAIL.

850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR -19 DEG C...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WITH INCREASED MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEG RANGE FOR MOST ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. BREEZY WEST WINDS 15G20KT EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...WSW WINDS 10-15 KTS TODAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. ANOTHER SCEC
EXPECTED OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  71  93  66 /  40  50  10  10
SSI  96  77  90  75 /  30  40  20  10
JAX  97  76  93  71 /  30  30  30  20
SGJ  96  78  91  74 /  20  30  40  40
GNV  94  75  93  70 /  30  30  30  20
OCF  94  76  93  71 /  30  30  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BAKER-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALSH






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