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Area Forecast Discussion

808
FXUS62 KJAX 171519
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1019 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE (1031 MILLIBARS) WAS
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS
LOCALLY...AS OUR REGION IS BETWEEN A ROBUST RIDGE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES.
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND THE MORNING SOUNDINGS AT JACKSONVILLE AND
TALLAHASSEE SHOW THAT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION. HIGH CIRRUS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES WILL
NOT ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH NEAR CLIMO FOR
MID-DECEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WILL DROP LOWS OVERNIGHT TO BELOW CLIMO...WITH MID TO
UPPER 30S EXPECTED INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST.
FROST FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 5000 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE...SO WE
DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IN THE
MORNING UPDATE. BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH
OFFSHORE NORTHWEST WINDS OF NEAR OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING
ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE UP TO
AROUND 60-62 DEGREES OVER WATER TEMPS THAT ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
BUT TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT FCSTS. THEN...A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STALL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF
THE WATERS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN INTENSE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  37  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  61  43  61  47 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  65  41  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  45  65  50 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  67  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  69  39  68  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/CORDERO/WALSH








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