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Area Forecast Discussion

898
FXUS62 KJAX 200550
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
150 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH TODAY AS
INVERTED TROUGH IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER NE
FL TODAY AND THEN INTO SE GA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTEDAYS READINGS WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COASTAL TROUGHING WILL EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
IN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL NE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S. FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS OF 75-80 FOR SE
GA/NE FL WITH LOWER 80S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE A
CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER
THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A WAVE OR A CLOSED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WEEK...MIGRATING THE
FEATURE E/NE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A
POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW...BUT A MINIMUM AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. WILL
BEGIN A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERING
NORTH CENTRAL FL SATURDAY...NORTH TO NE FL BY SUNDAY. WILL KEEP SE
GA MAINLY DRY SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THIS MORNING. STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT(SCT-BKN) WILL INCREASE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH
INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
MAINLY TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED ALONG WITH DIMINISHING SWELLS. WEAK INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS TODAY...BECOMING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS/SEAS BRIEFLY ON
WEDNESDAY BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND LOW RISK TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  57  81  54 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  76  62  80  60 /  10  20  10   0
JAX  80  60  83  59 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  79  62  82  63 /  10  20  10   0
GNV  82  59  84  59 /  10  20  10   0
OCF  84  61  85  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/






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