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Area Forecast Discussion

842
FXUS62 KJAX 251344
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
944 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LIGHT SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA THIS MORNING...WITH MORE ROBUST
ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GA TO THE FL
PANHANDLE. THE 12Z KJAX SOUNDING IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST...BUT
WITH SW FLOW...THAT SHOULD INCREASE QUITE A BIT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH THE INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE FOR ROTATING STORMS...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS UNTIL 4 PM. THIS WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED EAST AND
SOUTH IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTN. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS NE FL WHERE STORMS WILL NOT ENTER/DEVELOP UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY NE HELD DOWN A BIT ACROSS SE GA WITH ADDITIONAL MORNING
CLOUDS AND AFTN TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTN. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR
IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...SW WINDS 12-17 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
ELEVATED SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH SCEC OFFSHORE AND
15 KT NEARSHORE. STORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS LATER
TODAY...WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 35
KT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA OFFSHORE TNGT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY...LOW RISK SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  69  90  64 /  60  60  20  10
SSI  82  70  86  66 /  60  60  20  10
JAX  89  70  90  68 /  50  50  40  20
SGJ  86  71  89  70 /  40  30  40  30
GNV  87  72  88  71 /  30  30  40  30
OCF  88  70  87  70 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/HESS/GUILLET



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