« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » JAX Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

697
FXUS62 KJAX 250938
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
438 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

...MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN ADDITION TO SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN FIRST EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN TEXAS QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
THE GULF COAST STATES. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO QUICKLY TRANSLATE
EAST...DEEPENING IN THE PROCESS. THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS EVENING.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS BUT IT SHOULD PUSH INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN GEORGIA FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING SO QUICKLY
THAT THE AREA WILL ONLY BE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MOVES THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...INSTABILITY WILL BE PRACTICALLY NON EXISTENT. DYNAMICS
THOUGH WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG WITH THE LLJ PROGGED AT 60-70
KNOTS AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

SPC ONLY AS US IN A MARGINAL RISK DUE TO THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...BUT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PREVENTS US FROM RULING
OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THE ONE SAVING GRACE WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF AN INHIBITOR TO KEEP THE
STRONGEST WINDS FROM TRANSLATING TO THE SURFACE. THE CONVECTIVE LINE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS EVENING AND
THEN QUICKLY TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY REGION OF NE FL...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND A HALF INCH
OR LESS AND THE BULK OF THIS RAIN WILL COME WITH THE WEAKENING
LINE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. ALL AREAS WILL
AT LEAST SEE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN...THUS THE REASON FOR GOING WITH
90-100% POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY ON THURS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE FL
PENINSULA BY LATE MORNING. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL AT
SUNRISE...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS IN NORTHEAST FL. RIDGING ALOFT EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL KEEP DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT...AND
THUS SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO LAG THE FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW MORNING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR MOST OF
NORTHEAST FL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR
SOUTHEAST GA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT EXTENSIVE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS PERSISTING
THURS NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT OUR
REGION. LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL TO THE UPPER 30S INLAND...RANGING
TO THE MID 40S AT THE NORTHEAST FL COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWESTERN
STATES...OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...WHICH WILL
DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE 30S.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON FRI...KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS IN
PLACE. A COOL N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE FEB CLIMO...WITH 50S ALONG THE COAST AND ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...RANGING TO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD ON FRI
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE WINDS POTENTIALLY
SETTING UP STEADY RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. TIMING OF THIS MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS IN
QUESTION...AND THEREFORE CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
40-45...EXCEPT NEAR 50 IN NORTH CENTRAL FL AND ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FL COAST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN
SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING A DEEP ONSHORE FLOW REGIME IN PLACE
LOCALLY. MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SLOWLY RISE AS RIDGING
EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH OUR REGION ON SAT...AND COULD BE THE FOCUS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IN NORTHEAST FL GIVEN STRONG ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS PER
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS. CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR SAT FOR ALL
OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA...WITH
CHANCE POPS SPREADING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA SAT NIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR SOUTHEAST
GA ON SAT...WITH 60S EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FL DESPITE
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ON SAT NIGHT...WITH A POTENTIAL DENSE
FOG/SEA FOG EVENT FOR NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. LOWS
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE 40S...WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHWARD MARCH ON SUN...WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING TO ABOVE CLIMO FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. BELOW CLIMO
HIGHS MAY HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AS A
WEDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ONLY SLOWLY
WANES. HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST GA AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL GENERALLY
REMAIN 60-65. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LOW-END CHANCE POPS
IN PLACE REGION-WIDE. FOG MAY BECOME A NIGHTLY OCCURRENCE DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH ABOVE CLIMO DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND LOWS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTH
CENTRAL FL. HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S INLAND MON-WED...WITH
65-70 EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST DUE TO COOL SHELF WATERS
AND A SOUTHERLY WIND. ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN PLACE MON AND TUES. AN APPROACHING AND
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL NECESSITATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME LIFR
EXPECTED AT TIMES IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE. IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END
MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY RETURN BY THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT GNV WHERE
A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEHIND A
NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY THEN WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY
IMPROVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THUS THE SCA WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED...ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST BY LATE THURS...WITH OUR LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING CAUTION CRITERIA
THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME E-NE FRI
NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE. STRONG ONSHORE WINDS MAY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXTENDING INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING
SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  40  55  37 / 100 100  10   0
SSI  51  44  55  40 /  90 100  30   0
JAX  55  50  62  40 /  70 100  40   0
SGJ  60  52  62  44 /  50  90  40   0
GNV  64  55  65  42 /  50 100  30   0
OCF  69  58  66  44 /  50  90  40   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.