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Area Forecast Discussion

894
FXUS62 KJAX 221811
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
211 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER LEVEL ANOMALIES HAS MOVED EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECOND IS CONTINUING EASTWARD
OVER WESTERN ALABAMA. AT THE SURFACE...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION AND
CLOUDINESS HAS COMBINED WITH WEAK LEE STRETCHING AND CREATED A
DECENT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RUNNING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
FAR WESTERN SC...THROUGH NORTHERN GA...AND INTO CENTRAL AL. AS THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED THROUGH CENTRAL TN AND CENTRAL MS
MOVES EAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...THERE
SHOULD BE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH OUR SOUTHEASTERN GA
COUNTIES BY THIS EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST TO THE FL/GA LINE A
FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ANYTHING BUT A
SPRINKLE OR TWO WILL TRICKLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...ACROSS MOST OF N FL...EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG BY LATE TONIGHT NEARING DAWN.

AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY WITH ZONAL
FLOW THEREAFTER. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TOMORROW...BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT...WE KEPT POPS
IN THE SILENT 10 RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY VEERING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO INTERACT WITH THE GULF BREEZE WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEGINNING WELL
INLAND AND THEN MIGRATING TOWARD THE COAST TOWARD IN THE EVENING.
AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
WITH LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND COOLER UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.
THE COOLING AFFECT OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL WORK JUST A BIT FURTHER
INLAND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...
UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SHORT
WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S
INLAND WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES KEEPING THE COAST IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR GNV...WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS DROPPING TO LIFR
AROUND 12Z BUT IMPROVING AROUND 14Z. VCSH AROUND 02Z AT SSI AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES SE GA. SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR SSI BY 06Z. SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOW CIGS AT SSI AND LOW VSBYS AT VQQ
TONIGHT...BUT OVERALL CHANCE IS LOW SO LEFT OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...BUT
SHOULD PEAK JUST BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS. THIS MAY BRIEF HALT
THE REDUCTION IN SEAS...AT LEAST OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE
AND VEER AROUND TO ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD INCREASE BRIEFLY TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASING FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS. TODAY...
SWELLS OF 3-5 FT WERE IMPACTING THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 8-12
SECONDS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT MANY LOCAL RIVER
BASINS. SITES ALONG THE ST MARYS RIVER ARE FALLING BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THE ALTAMAHA...
SITES ARE IN OR NEAR A BROAD CREST EXCEPT AT EVERETT CITY WHERE
THE RIVER IS STILL RISING. RISES CONTINUE ON THE SUWANNEE AND
SANTA FE AS WELL...WITH THREE RIVERS AT SANTA FE FORECAST TO REACH
MAJOR FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  84  58  83 /  40  10   0  20
SSI  62  72  64  73 /  30  10   0  10
JAX  60  81  62  80 /  20  10  10  20
SGJ  61  79  66  77 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  57  85  60  85 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  58  85  61  85 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN/WOOL
LONG TERM...ENYEDI/ZIBURA
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN/MOORE





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