« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » JAX Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

106
FXUS62 KJAX 020824
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.NEAR TERM...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E/SE OF THE AREA
TODAY WHILE COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO LOWER MS
VALLEY. THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL WILL PROVIDE A SLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. BOTH W AND E COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP WITH
STRONGER SELY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN PARTS OF SE GA DURING THE
AFTN...OTHERWISE DEEP SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW W COAST SEA BREEZE TO BE
DOMINATE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AND
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY
WILL BE ACROSS SE GA WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE LOCATED. HAVE ADVERTISED 40-50 PERCENT POPS OVER INLAND SE
GA...WITH 20-30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED
AGAIN WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FCST...BUT CLOSER TO MID 80S AT THE
E COAST BEACHES DUE TO ATLC SEA BREEZE. T-STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY FADE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BEST CHANCES IN THE
EVENING WILL BE OVER ERN ZONES AND SE GA WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DUE TO S-SW FLOW AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE LATE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE INTO
FCST ATTM.

TUESDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO EWD TO THE MID ATLC COAST
TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTN. MEANWHILE...DEEP WSWLY FLOW
AND INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. INDICATED SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES OVER SE GA. COMBINATION OF
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR VALUES NEARING 25-35 KT WILL
ALLOW FOR POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SPC HAS PLACED
OUR AREA IN MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE FCST GRIDS ATTM DUE TO ANTICIPATED LOW
COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH GUSTY WINDS (~40-60 MPH) AND HAIL
THE MAIN CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT LOWER DUE TO INCREASED
MOISTURE AND PRECIP.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS ON TUES NIGHT...DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST GA.
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AREA-WIDE. CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 60S REGION-WIDE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR ON WED...MAINLY
FROM THE MID-MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT
PRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST FL. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN
W/SW ALOFT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST
FL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
FILTER INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA BY WED AFTERNOON AS BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S...EXCEPT UPPER 70S NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA/OCMULGEE RIVERS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ON WED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH W/NW SURFACE WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10
MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST. THESE VALUES ARE
CLOSE TO EARLY MAY CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THURS AND
FRI...WITH A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION ON THURS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
AREA FOR THURS...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND NEAR 80 OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL. A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURS NIGHT AND FRI. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST...WITH DECOUPLING
TAKING PLACE INLAND THURS NIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL BELOW EARLY MAY
CLIMO BY FRI MORNING...WITH UPPER 40S EXPECTED INLAND AND THE MID
50S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE
ON FRI. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING
TO THE 50-55 RANGE INLAND AND UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGHING WILL SLIDE OFF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD ON SAT. A
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SAT NIGHT...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S AT
THE COAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR AREA ON SUN...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS PREVAILING. INLAND HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KEEPING
THE BEACHES IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
14Z NEAR JAX AND SSI TERMINALS...THEN PREVAILING VFR. SCT CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING...THEN LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN. WITH PROBABILITIES BELOW 50 PERCENT
AT TAF SITES KEPT ONLY 1 OR 2 SITES WITH VICINITY SHOWER WORDING AT
THIS TIME. VCTS MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF FCST THIS
AFTN/EVENING FOR COASTAL TAFS SITES AS WELL AS JAX AND VQQ.


&&

.MARINE....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF AREA WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SLY FLOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE AS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY. BREEZY NW FLOW
EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
WELL W AND NW OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEK. MAIN SHORT TERM
HAZARD FOR MARINERS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  68  84  62 /  50  40  70  50
SSI  82  71  84  67 /  20  30  60  50
JAX  89  70  87  67 /  30  30  50  50
SGJ  85  71  86  69 /  30  30  40  50
GNV  89  69  86  67 /  20  20  40  40
OCF  89  69  86  68 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/NELSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.