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Area Forecast Discussion

165
FXUS62 KJAX 240716
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
216 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014


.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH WITH
NE FL/SE GA IN THE WARM SECTOR. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY WITH GUSTY SW WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. BEST CONVERGENCE AND RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD BE FROM
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY INTO SE GA. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR
DUE TO STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY. STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FAST CELL MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT REACHING SOUTHERN ZONES OF
THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RICH SW FLOW ALOFT JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL
SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING SCENARIO. WILL INCREASE POPS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...MAXIMIZING AT CATEGORICAL AREA WIDE LATE TUESDAY
AFTN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT THE
HEIGHT OF THE EVENT TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. RAINFALL
TOTALS FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN NE FL. A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIP ENDING NW TO SE WED AFTN. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS SE GA...WITH MID
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR NE FL. COOLER AIR WILL COMPLETE ITS ENTRY
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA
WIDE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS
TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 60S INTO THE WEEKEND WILL WARM TO
THE 65-70 RANGE FOR SUNDAY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 INLAND
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 15Z AS LOW
CIGS ADVECT INTO THE AREA. NOT MUCH FOG EXPECTED AS SW WINDS STAY
UP IN 5-10 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR/VFR CIGS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VCSH AND SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS. LLWS
TIL MID-MORNING DUE TO STRONG SW WINDS RIGHT ABOVE SURFACE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND BECOME SSW OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL STAY ELEVATED TODAY AS EASTERLY SWELLS COMBINE WITH
DECREASING WIND WAVES. DUE TO SEAS WILL KEEP ADVISORY OFFSHORE
TIL 21Z...WITH SCEC HEADLINE NEAR SHORE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER LAND MAY REACH THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AGAIN TO ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  56  59  47 /  50  50  60  80
SSI  73  59  62  48 /  20  40  70  80
JAX  80  61  65  47 /  10  40  70  80
SGJ  79  63  69  50 /  20  30  80  90
GNV  80  61  67  48 /  20  30  80  90
OCF  82  62  70  51 /  20  30  90  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/






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