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Area Forecast Discussion

065
FXUS62 KJAX 072136
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
436 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BREEZY TO WINDY EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...

...LOW WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE FAR WRN ATLANTIC
AWAY FROM OUR AREA...LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY BREEZY AFTERNOON ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO LOW TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TONIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A FREEZE
BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WIND...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FROST TOWARD DAWN
PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS...AND WILL INCLUDE
IN FORECAST.

FOR MONDAY...INTENSE UPPER TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH
FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SOME
INSOLATION IN THE MORNING...WENT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY LWR 60S SE GA...MID 60S NE FL.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON MON ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINING OVER OUR REGION AS ANOTHER STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEVELOPS EAST OF THE VA CAPES AND POLAR HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION MON EVENING...WITH GUSTY W/NW
WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10-15 MPH THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUES. LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE MID 30S INLAND AND NEAR 40 AT THE NORTHEAST FL
COAST...WITH WIND CHILLS OF 25-30 EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON TUES.

WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL FUNNEL INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUES AFTERNOON
AS VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT INCREASE INSTABILITY....WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA AND COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
ADVECTING FROM THE GULF WATERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY TO WINDY W/NW CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE...MAKING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FEEL EVEN
COLDER. W/NW WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT TUES
NIGHT AND NEAR 15 MPH AT THE BEACHES...CREATING WIND CHILLS NEAR
20 INLAND TOWARDS SUNRISE ON WED. INLAND LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON WED. A
LIGHT ADVECTIVE FREEZE WILL OCCUR INLAND...WHERE LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S T0 LOWER 30S. LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED AT
THE COAST. DUE TO RECENT RAINS...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AT THE
GROUND WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT AT WIND SHELTERED
LOCATIONS.

A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH
ON WED AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
REBOUND INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL SLIP
SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ADVECTIVE
FREEZE IS EXPECTED...AND A HARD FREEZE IS POSSIBLE OVER OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GA. A LIGHT FREEZE MAY EXTEND INTO
INLAND NORTH CENTRAL FL BY SUNRISE ON THURS...AND WIND CHILLS WILL
AGAIN FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND AS NW WINDS REMAIN IN
THE 5-10 MPH RANGE INLAND AND NEAR 15 MPH AT THE COAST. PATCHY
FROST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR WIND SHELTERED AREAS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURS MORNING
WILL DE-AMPLIFY...BUT DEEP LAYERED W/NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ALOFT LOCALLY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL FINALLY SETTLE OVER OUR
AREA...BUT A LINGERING COLD AIR MASS WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO
CLIMB TO 50-55 FOR THURS DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE ON THURS EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
POTENTIALLY INVADE OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRI
MORNING. A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE AND HEAVY FROST IS POSSIBLE
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH EARLY FRI
MORNING. HIGHS FRI WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL FINALLY BE CLOSE TO CLIMO ON FRI
NIGHT...AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION RESULTS IN LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40-45 RANGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT. HIGHS SAT SHOULD REACH 60-65 AS
UPPER TROUGHING DOES NOT DIG AS FAR SOUTHWARD...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL FORCE WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY SLIGHT COOLING FOR
SAT NIGHT AND NEXT SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING DURING THE EVENING. MAY SEE W WINDS GUST OCCASIONALLY
TO 20 KTS MON AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE INTENSIFYING COASTAL STORM OFF THE CAROLINAS PULLS
NORTHEASTWARD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 30 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE GULF STREAM WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THIS EVENING. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN THE 10-13 FT RANGE
THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REPLACE THE GALE
WARNING OVERNIGHT...AND WE WILL LEAVE SCA FLAG UP FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AS SEAS UP TO 7 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEYOND 15
NAUTICAL MILES. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR
REGION ON MON AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO SCA SPEEDS NEAR SHORE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND NEAR
GALE FORCE OFFSHORE. A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED OFFSHORE
BEGINNING LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH MON NIGHT FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS WINDS SHIFT TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION.
ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST WED
NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS PREVAILING NEAR SHORE AND OCCASIONAL
GALE FORCE GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THURS AND FRI...WITH
DECREASING OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
DEVELOPING LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION. A DRIER AIR
MASS HAS PLUNGED INTO OUR AREA...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 25-30 PERCENT AT INLAND LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNSET.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MON AND TUES AFTERNOONS...WITH
STRONG MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING
TO AROUND 35 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY ON WED...AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RECENT HEAVY
RAINS HAVE DRIVEN ERC VALUES WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...AND
THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  61  33  48 /   0  30  20   0
SSI  37  62  37  50 /   0  30  40   0
JAX  36  64  35  52 /   0  20  40   0
SGJ  38  65  40  54 /   0  10  40   0
GNV  34  65  36  54 /   0  20  20   0
OCF  37  66  39  55 /   0  10  30   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO
     ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

WOLF/NELSON/GUILLET



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