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Area Forecast Discussion

043
FXUS62 KJAX 280746
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
346 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...RECORD LOW TEMP OF 65 TIED SO FAR AT JAX INTL AIRPORT...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS ON TAP UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SATELLITE BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIP WATER PRODUCT SHOWS PWATS HAVE DROPPED BELOW AN INCH
OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-10. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS CREEPING NWD OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL DURING THE DAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM
OCCASIONALLY DRIFTING INTO OUR SRN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRY
AIR WILL RETREAT LATER TONIGHT AND SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE OVER ATLC AND GULF WATERS POSSIBLY AFFECTING COASTAL
LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
WILL RECOVER QUICKLY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...AND HIGHS
WILL CLIMB TO 90-95 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE AS COOL...BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND LOW/MID 70S ALONG COAST AND
ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.

FRIDAY...MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDGE MOVES NORTH TO ACROSS CNTL
FL. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOISTURE SURGES NORTH DURING THE DAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
STORMS...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NE FL BETWEEN I-75
AND U.S. 301 WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER 90 ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE GRADUALLY LIFTS TO JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR THE
STATE BORDER. AS A RESULT...WILL HAVE A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZES.
BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WHERE
SEABREEZES AND OTHER BOUNDARIES MERGE. CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90
AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SE 8-10 KT NEAR THE ATLC COAST THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO
EASTERLY SWELLS...WHICH ARE HIGHER NEAR THE GULF STREAM. WILL
EXPIRE THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND SUBSTITUTE A SCEC DUE TO
SEAS HEADLINE FOR TODAY. BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AND EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  65  95  72 /   0   0  20  20
SSI  87  75  89  77 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  92  70  92  73 /   0   0  20  20
SGJ  89  74  89  75 /  10  10  20  20
GNV  93  70  92  73 /  10  10  50  50
OCF  93  72  93  73 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL
     20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

TRABERT/PETERSON









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