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Area Forecast Discussion

336
FXUS62 KJAX 190912 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF...OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS



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