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Area Forecast Discussion

287
FXUS62 KJAX 300718
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
318 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...

An upper level trough was stretched across the eastern conus this
morning, and a shortwave rounding the base of the trough will move
across the panhandle of Florida and then into northeast Florida
and southeast Georgia late this afternoon. At the surface, a
stalled boundary remains across central Georgia. Surface high
pressure was located well out into the western Atlantic and the
surface ridge axis was south of the region, providing a light
southwesterly low level flow.

Convection is forecast to develop over the Gulf of Mexico and
then move into the big bend region, Suwanee Valley and across the
southern half of northeast Florida this morning. Moisture will
pool across southeast Georgia this afternoon ahead of the
shortwave, with precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible once again, especially across southeast
Georgia. It is possible that the morning convection or significant
Gulf convection and cirrus clouds, if it occurs, could disrupt
the formation of the east coast sea breeze this afternoon.
Numerous and showers and storms would still move from west to east
across the region, but it would limit heavy rainfall potential if
the sea breeze does not form. An earlier start to convection today
will lead to lower high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

Showers and storms will continue well into the evening hours
before dissipating. Convection is forecast to develop once again
across the northeastern Gulf overnight, and showers/storms could
move into the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley region before daybreak.
Overnight lows will be mild in the low to mid 70s.


.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday night/...

A deep layered south-southwest flow will continue to prevail
through the end of the week. Upper ridging extending into the
southeast Florida coast from the Bahamas in concert with mid/upper
level trough over the SE U.S. will allow the deep moisture
transport from the Gulf of Mexico. The ample moisture in concert
with daytime heating will support the west coast seabreeze to
drive showers and thunderstorms across forecast area both days.
The southwest flow regime favors early morning convection west of
the I-75 corridor during the pre-dawn hours, moving east of the
I-75 corridor during the mid to late morning, and moving east of
301 toward the coast during the afternoon through mid evening
hours where the highest rain chances and best storm coverage will
reside as the sea breeze boundary moves inland. Highs are forecast
to be in the lower 90s inland...upper 80s along the immediate
coast, Lows in the middle 70s with upper 70s near coast.


.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday and Monday...
Later in the weekend into early next week the upper ridge will re-
build west over the peninsula and eastern Gulf as the attendant
surface ridge axis shifts north to the central peninsula. Abundant
low level moisture associated with the southwest flow will allow
scattered to numerous diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms
across the forecast area each day through early next week. The
aforementioned prevailing south-southwesterly flow each day is
expected to hamper and impinge the headway of the east coast sea
breeze and facilitate the Gulf coast sea breeze with the merging
of the two near the I-95 corridor late each day. Near normal max
temps are expected in the low to mid 90s inland and upper 80s to
near 90 along the coast with lows in the mid 70s inland...upper
70s to near 80 along the coast.

Tuesday and Wednesday...
The extended guidance indicates surface high pressure and high
pressure aloft well entrenched across the Florida peninsula all
away across into the west central Gulf. As a result, slightly
warmer temperatures temperatures are on tap across the entire
region on Wednesday. Warmer mid level temperatures (-5 to -5.5C)
will reside over the region Tuesday and Wednesday providing more
stable conditions across the region, making for less area coverage
of afternoon thunderstorms, isolated to widely scattered. Highs
will increase from the mid 90s to mid-upper 90s across the
interior from Tuesday into Wednesday. Lows increase across the
interior from the mid 70s Tuesday night into the upper 70s
Wednesday night. Again, swly flow will prevail with an impinged
east coast sea breeze. However, convection will be much more
limited with isolated to widely scattered showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are forecast for the overnight hours and into the
morning. Convection is forecast to develop across the northeastern
Gulf and then move towards KGNV in the late morning to early
afternoon, and then towards the east coast TAF sites by mid
afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in/near showers and
storms this afternoon and early evening. Light winds to light
southwest winds will continue through the morning. An east coast
sea breeze is forecast to develop this afternoon, but it could get
disrupted if convection moves across earlier than anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
A series of frontal boundaries will move into the southeastern
states through the weekend and stall, as a high pressure ridge
remains to the southeast. Daily rounds of showers and storms can
be expected through the weekend, mainly in the afternoon.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  74  91  74 /  60  50  50  20
SSI  88  75  88  77 /  60  50  50  30
JAX  92  74  92  75 /  60  50  60  30
SGJ  88  75  89  76 /  60  50  60  30
GNV  90  74  91  74 /  50  40  60  20
OCF  91  74  91  75 /  50  30  50  20

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Cordero/



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