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Area Forecast Discussion

630
FXUS62 KJAX 140607
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
207 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014


.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION FIRED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER SE GA PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LAST EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AROUND MIDNIGHT. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL GA WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY OVER SE
GA WHERE MOISTURE POOLING EXISTS S OF FRONT. CONVECTION WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTN/EVNG WITH SLOW CELL MOTION PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE OVER NE FL TO BE LESS
DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE FROM E-W RIDGE...AND MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE FRONT. CONVECTION WILL DIE
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER NE FL AND LINGER LONGER OVER SE GA DUE TO
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND DEEPER MOISTURE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... RIDGING AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL
EXIT THE LOCAL AREA TO THE WEST...WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
HOVERING NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE RIDGE PULLS TO THE WEST. THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH...ALONG WITH THE AFTN ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND SMALL SCALE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHANCES.
WILL USE HIGH ENC CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTN...WITH
LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE TUESDAY AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN
AFTN/EARLY EVENING MAX TO THE PRECIP...SOME ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HOWEVER THE RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION
COULD YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL NUDGE DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY WITH
GREATER PRECIP COVERAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT BRINGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
SE GA WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...SOME DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
OCCUR...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH NE FL
BY THURSDAY...AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF IS ALSO STRONGER WITH A POST-FRONTAL NE FLOW EVENT LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HANGS THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE WEEK...WITH LESS OF A NE FLOW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONTAL APPROACH...WITH POPS LOWERING SOMEWHAT WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HOWEVER...WILL RETAIN CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER NE FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO COOL WEDNESDAY MAINLY DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH SOME
COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEEK INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE DOWN ALSO...BUT
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP BY SOME RESIDUAL WIND
AS WELL AS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER SE GA ARE
SPREADING SOUTH WHICH SHOULD PREVENT FOG FORMATION THIS MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH VCSH AND VCTS INLAND
AFTER 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT S-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEAS
AROUND 2 FEET. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS AT MIDWEEK PRODUCING N-NE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WNA WAVE MODEL STILL SHOWS SEAS INCREASING STARTING ON WEDNESDAY
AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM TS EDOUARD ARRIVE. HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE
BY THURSDAY AS WINDS AND WIND WAVES INCREASE BEHIND COLD FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  74  90  72 /  40  40  60  60
SSI  87  76  86  74 /  20  10  40  30
JAX  90  74  90  73 /  20  10  40  40
SGJ  88  74  88  74 /  10  10  30  30
GNV  91  71  91  71 /  30  30  50  50
OCF  91  72  91  71 /  30  40  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/






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