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Area Forecast Discussion

891
FXUS62 KJAX 261341
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
941 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS IN MORNING COASTAL
SHOWERS...

.UPDATE...A LINGERING SURFACE FRONT STRETCH ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS
MORNING WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT ANALYZED FROM
OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL FL COAST SSW TOWARD TAMPA. THE 12Z JAX RAOB
SHOWED A VERY MOIST NE FLOW UP TO 6 KFT WHICH WAS FUELING A CONVERGENT
BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO JIA.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 0.5-1" UNDER THE
BAND. ELSEWHERE MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. FARTHER INLAND
ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...EARLY MORNING LOW
STRATUS WAS LIFTING.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESSES
INLAND WITH ISOLATED TSTORMS POTENTIAL GIVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT. COASTAL
WINDS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS GIVEN ELEVATED BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE MINOR TEMPORARY FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

INTO THE AFTERNOON...RAINFALL WILL FOCUS INLAND ACROSS NE FL GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AS STACKED SUBSIDENCE ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS OVER SE GA. GIVEN MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND LESS CLOUD COVER HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER
90S ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NE FL WHERE MORE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NEAR 100 DEG ACROSS
NE FL WHERE JUICY DEW PTS IN THE MID 70S WILL PREVAIL...WHILE
DRIER AIR WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR NW GA ZONES
WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...WAVES OF MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY BANDS OF SHOWERS AS
THEY MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING AFFECTING JAX...CRG...VQQ AND SGJ
WITH GUSTY NE WINDS 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE. TS MOST PROBABLE NEAR GNV
THIS AFTERNOON AND ADVERTISED VCTS BY 16Z ONCE DAYTIME HEATING
INTERACTS WITH THE MOST AIRMASS IN PLACE. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CIGS AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH COASTAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41008 WAS SUSTAINED NE 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 28
KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISED EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR
OUR GA WATERS. FARTHER SOUTH THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL MEANDER
NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL FL TO BRING A LIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FL WATERS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KTS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DUE TO ELEVATED
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  72  94  72 /   0   0  20  10
SSI  86  77  88  75 /  40  20  30  10
JAX  89  75  90  73 /  70  30  40  10
SGJ  87  76  87  74 /  70  30  50  10
GNV  90  73  89  72 /  70  20  60  20
OCF  90  74  89  73 /  70  30  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/PETERSON/COMBS



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