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Area Forecast Discussion

125
FXUS62 KJAX 240739
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
339 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...

Water vapor animation early this morning shows an upper Low
spinning just off the coast of the south central Florida peninsula.
It also shows drier air embedded within this Low. The Low will
retrograde westward across the Florida peninsula today and then
move into the Gulf of Mexico this evening.

Today will be another hot and humid day with below normal
thunderstorm chances for most areas. The driest air, associated
with the upper Low, will set up across eastern parts of northeast
Florida with PWATs checking in comfortably below average. PWATs
will be higher across southeast Georgia, roughly around normal for
this time of year.

The thunderstorm evolution will be similar to what we saw
yesterday, with perhaps a little more coverage in southeast
Georgia. It will remain dry along and east of the I-95 corridor,
particularly in Florida. Isolated to widely scattered storms will
be possible on the seabreeze this afternoon just west of I-95,
with the best chances in Southeast Georgia.

Storms, much like yesterday, will eventually become scattered
along and west of the I-75 corridor late in the day into the
evening hours as the Atlantic seabreeze collides with the slower
moving Gulf Coast seabreeze.

The seabreeze will hold max temps in the lower 90s at the
beaches. Inland temps will again top out above normal with heat
indices again reaching values between 100 and 105 degrees.

Storms in our western zones will dissipate and shift west of the
Suwannee River during the mid evening hours tonight. Otherwise, it
will be another warm and muggy evening with temps again expected
to settle near normal levels by sunrise Monday morning.

.SHORT TERM /Monday and Tuesday/...

An upper level low will open up into a trough as it moves west
northwest across the northeastern Gulf and into the deep south.
The upper ridge over the western Atlantic will build slowly
westward, with the center of the high about 300 miles east of the
region on Tuesday. Dry air is forecast to still be across the
region Monday morning, with precipitable water values around 1.5
inches. Deep south to southeasterly flow will pump deeper
moisture northward into northeast Florida through the day.
Temperatures aloft will be very warm, with 500mb temps -4 to -5C,
which will hold rainfall chances in the scattered ranges across
northeast Florida south of I-10. Mainly dry conditions are
forecast across southeast Georgia.

Low/mid level ridge over the western Atlantic will shift slightly
south on Tuesday, which will veer winds to the south and
southwest. The Gulf coast sea breeze will move inland early
afternoon, with storms then developing along the east coast sea
breeze late in the afternoon closer to the east coast. Deeper
moisture will make its way northward into southeast Georgia too,
and scattered showers and storms are forecast across most of the
region. Temperatures aloft will cool slightly, but will still be
warm north, with 500mb temps around -5 to -7C.

Highs will be in the low to mid 90s and lows will be in the 70s.

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...

Upper level ridge will remain centered just east of the region
through the end of the week and into next weekend. The upper ridge
may begin to break down next weekend as an upper trough pushes
into the eastern conus. The surface ridge axis will remain south
of the region through the week, with deep south to southwesterly
flow prevailing. Warm and dry air aloft will keep rainfall chances
below normal in the 10-35% range through the extended period.
Above normal temperatures will also prevail.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today. The chance for
thunderstorms will remain below average at the TAF sites again
today, however, we will continue VCTS at GNV to account for the
possibility of thunderstorm activity near that area very late
today into this evening.

&&

.MARINE...

Prevailing flow will generally be out of a southerly direction at
around 10 to 15 knots through the upcoming week. Seas will generally
average 2 to 3 feet. No headlines are anticipated.

Rip Currents: Low Risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  72  95  73 /  20  10  20  10
SSI  90  78  91  77 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  95  72  93  74 /  10  10  20  10
SGJ  91  75  89  75 /  10  10  20  20
GNV  96  71  92  72 /  30  30  40  20
OCF  94  72  93  73 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shuler/Kennedy/



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