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Area Forecast Discussion

771
FXUS62 KJAX 260040
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
740 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT FORECAST TIMING IS ON TRACK. EXPECT INITIAL LINE OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO REACH FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
AROUND 03Z...THEN MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN LINE
SHOULD CLEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10Z.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WINDS ABOVE
THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. FAR INLAND COUNTIES WILL HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE LINE SHOULD WEAKEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS. WITH SHEER NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT...THEN FALL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
DURING THE EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO S AND SW AND BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE.  IFR CIGS WIDESPREAD
NORTH OF WARM FRONT. ONCE IN WARM SECTOR...ANTICIPATING A RISE TO MVFR.

LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS WILL MOVE OVER TAF SITES DURING
06Z-10Z PERIOD TONIGHT. THEN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO DROP BACK TO IFR. FOR NOW...HAVE BKN010 TOWARD
DAWN IN TAFS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  54  38  57 / 100  10   0   0
SSI  45  54  41  54 / 100  20   0   0
JAX  52  60  42  58 / 100  20   0   0
SGJ  55  61  45  59 /  80  40   0  10
GNV  57  66  43  63 / 100  20   0  10
OCF  61  65  44  65 / 100  30  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/WOLF



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