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Area Forecast Discussion

555
FXUS62 KJAX 201958
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

...FROST ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A FEW STORMS ON SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CIRRUS BAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL NO LONGER BE PRESENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE LATE
NOCTURNAL HOURS. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF INLAND
NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE VERY
INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS. TEMPS IN THESE AREAS SETTLE INTO THE LOW/MID
30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THERE MAY BE A
LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TOWARD THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS...AND THE EVENING WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL WARNINGS
FOR THIS AREA OF NE FL. IT WILL BE SOME 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER
OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE INTERCOASTAL EASTWARD WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 14 DEGREES WARMER WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST
FLOW ALLOWING SOME VERY SUBTLE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH
DEWPOINTS BUMPING UP INTO THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE VERY MODEST WITH DRIER AIR TO STILL LINGERING OVER
THE UPSTREAM NEARSHORE WATERS.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRES WILL BE LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA AND
HELP TO INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE MORE ROBUST FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH ALL OF
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE E COAST AND THE MEAN LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS DIRECTLY ONSHORE TO EVEN ESE TO SE. SKIES WILL TEND TO
BE PARTLY CLOUDY MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS FRI AND THEN INCREASE
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS BY LATER FRI NIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO MODERATE UNDER THIS WARMING REGIME. NONETHELESS...RELATIVELY
COOL TEMPS EXPECTED ON FRI...COOLEST ALONG THE COAST WHERE WATER
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 60S...EVEN SOME UPPER 50S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS N OF JAX. WINDS WILL BE ELY AROUND 10-15 MPH AND GUSTY AS
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP...BREEZY CONDS ALONG COAST.

SATURDAY...LARGE STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE NC COAST WILL
PRODUCE A MOISTENING EASTERLY FLOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST BUT PROBABLY ALSO INLAND DUE TO STOUT E
FLOW AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
WITH READINGS NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAIN
INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
BUT CHANCES LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME. A BETTER CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AS STRONGLY VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
INCREASES WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE STRONG STORM ACTIVITY BUT ATTM INSTABILITY IS
THE MAIN QUESTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE TIME FRAME 7AM SAT
THROUGH 7PM SUN COULD BE A BIT HIGH ACROSS SE GA WHERE CURRENT FCST
TOTALS ARE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE...AND GENERALLY UNDER 2 INCHES IN
NE FL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS SW-NE BISECTING THE CWA ON
MONDAY. FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS REST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
CLEARING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THOUGH CLOUD COVER
MAY LINGER SE ZONES DUE TO SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TEMPERATURES
AND POPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME COASTAL
TAFS WILL HAVE A SCT TO BKN 4KFT LAYER WITH MORE PREVALENT NE
ONSHORE FLOW AT 8-10 KNOTS AFT 14Z FRIDAY...BUT STILL VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-15
KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS ON
FRI...BRINGING CAUTION CONDITIONS TO THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS
FRI NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ON SAT...AND MAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE SAT NIGHT AS
COASTAL TROUGHING MAY BE SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN AND SEAS LIKELY INCREASE
TO SCA LEVELS IN BOTH THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON SUN...WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON MON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE REGION...WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO CAUTION
LEVELS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO SCA
LEVELS OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST MON.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. DEVELOPING MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY AS
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE. POSSIBLE HIGH RISK THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  65  42  66 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  42  61  53  66 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  36  65  51  70 /   0   0  10  30
SGJ  45  66  58  72 /   0   0  20  30
GNV  33  69  51  76 /   0   0  10  30
OCF  36  71  52  78 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/CORDERO/WALKER





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