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Area Forecast Discussion

019
FXUS62 KJAX 300157
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
957 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER
GA WITH A TROUGH AXIS MEANDERING OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
TOWARD A DEEPER SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE OF THE FL/GA ATLANTIC
WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUED TO DOMINATE OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TREKKING SSW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS GA. DRIER AND MUCH MORE
STABLE AIR DOMINATED ACROSS OUR COASTAL ZONES AND ALONG THE ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE WHICH KEPT CONVECTION MINIMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA TODAY...WHILE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHALLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES CONTINUED TO FUEL SLOW MOVING BACKBUILDING
CELLS ACROSS SE GA.

THE HRRR GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL WITH CONVECTION TODAY AND WAS
USED IN THE EVENING UPDATE. ADVERTISED PRECIP FADING ACROSS NE FL
THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHILE CONTINUED SCATTERED NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN GA ZONES THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING WITH A DRIFT
IN PRECIP TOWARD THE SSW TOWARD APALACHEE THROUGH THU MORNING.
EARLY THU MORNING  PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FADE OVER INLAND SE GA
AND FOCUS ACROSS APALACHEE BAY...THEN BEGIN TO EDGE INLAND UNDER
LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW.

MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH VALUES IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND ATLANTIC COAST.
ADVERTISED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR MOST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
ON THURSDAY AND WE WILL COVER THIS WITH PROB30 AND VCTS GROUPS FOR
NOW.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SSW FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH A BROAD
TROUGH AXIS LINGERING OVER THE WATERS. COMBINED SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 3 FT OR LESS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  94  75  93 /  30  50  30  50
SSI  76  88  78  88 /  10  30  30  40
JAX  75  92  75  90 /  20  50  30  60
SGJ  75  89  76  89 /  10  50  30  60
GNV  74  89  74  89 /  40  60  30  70
OCF  74  89  74  89 /  50  60  40  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET



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