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Area Forecast Discussion

340
FXUS62 KJAX 311801
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...SOME STORMS THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
FURNISHING LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS INTERIOR NE FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MEAN 925-700 MB RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. THE
SEABREEZE HAS STARTED TO BISECT THE THE FLORIDA FIRST COAST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND IS HUGGING THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
GEORGIA. IN ADDITION...THE NATURE COAST SEA BREEZE IS COMMENCING
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THESE RESPECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE FCST TO
LIKELY MEET ACROSS THE FLORIDA I-75 CORRIDOR AND INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SE GEORGIA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS FEASIBILITY PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALMA GEORGIA TO OCALA FLORIDA THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.


.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE DUE EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.

WITH THIS PATTERN...WOULD EXPECT MAINLY DIURNALLY ENHANCED SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE
EARLER DEVELOPMENT IN INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. OTHERWISE WOULD EXPECT
A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND PROPAGATE WESTWARD WITH THE SEA BREEZE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE...FOCUSING CONVECTION OVER THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. A
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE MAY BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON OVER FAR
INLAND SE GA...DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH MOST SHOWERS ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE NIGHTS WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY HOW MUCH CONVECTION
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAYS. WOULD EXPECT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT EACH NIGHT...WITH SPOTTY FOG DEVELOPING
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE AFTERNOON RAINS...AND CLEAR OUT FAST.

A CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THIS PATTERN A MORE
MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL THIS
PERIOD. THE HIGHEST READINGS IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE OVER FAR
INLAND REGIONS...WITH THE SEA BREEZE CAPPING READINGS NEAR THE
COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE
BAHAMAS AS AN UPPER LOW SLIPS UNDERNEATH INTO THE GULF.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE CONTENT HIGH ENOUGH TO YIELD
ABOVE CLIMO POPS (AROUND 40-50%) FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE EURO AND GFS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS HAS AN AMPLIFIED EAST COAST TROUGH
WHILE THE EURO KEEPS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH A SMALL VORT MAX OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.AVIATION...

FR FOR COASTAL TAFS WITH VERY LIMITED SHWRS AND TSTMS
FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON (18Z TO 20Z)...BUT NOT ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. FOR INTERIOR TAF...KGNV CAN FEASIBLY HAVE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS CONVECTION MAY
LINGER OUT WEST OF THE KGNV TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION BUT VERY
LIMITED WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS
AT 10 KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD ESE SWELL AND AFTERNOON
ONSHORE FLOW WILL WARRANT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
LABOR DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  74  95 /  20  60  60  60
SSI  77  87  76  87 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  75  91  74  91 /  20  30  10  20
SGJ  75  88  75  88 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  72  90  72  90 /  40  60  60  50
OCF  72  91  72  90 /  40  60  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO/WALSH






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