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Area Forecast Discussion

535
FXUS62 KJAX 231914
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
314 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING
ENOUGH OF A CU FIELD TO CREATE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
GREATEST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
ACROSS OUR INLAND SOUTHERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

.SHORT TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SINK FROM NORTHEAST TO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...ALTHOUGH THE FLOW WILL SHIFT FROM MAINLY
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS SHIFT IN FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER INLAND.
THIS WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVECT NORTH. SO...WILL FAVOR A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS SUNDAY...WITH
A FEW STORMS ALONG THE I75 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL TREND MORE TOWARD INLAND
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOCUSING
PRIMARILY ON THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR WITH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE ADDING LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE WEEK. WITH THIS PATTERN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY INLAND EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S AT THE COAST...TO AROUND 90 FAR INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
BROKEN STRATOCU FIELD IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO UPPER END OF THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING. CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
BREAKS EXPECTED BUT WE WILL SETTLE ON CEILINGS AROUND 3K FEET FOR
NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS AT A SOLID 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SCEC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EACH EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK IN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  87  68  89 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  71  83  74  84 /  10  10  10  20
JAX  68  85  70  87 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  74  84  74  85 /  20  20  10  20
GNV  68  89  68  91 /  10  20  10  20
OCF  70  91  70  91 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/STRUBLE/



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