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Area Forecast Discussion

037
FXUS62 KJAX 260902
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
502 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE CAROLINAS WESTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE
ARKLATEX REGION. ALOFT...FAST WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGHOUT
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION...WITH STOUT RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROUGHING NEAR THE
CANADIAN MARITIME REGION. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS ADVECTED A
LOW STRATUS LAYER INTO OUR REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S...AND DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES.

.NEAR TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
LOW STRATUS CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY SCOUR OUT AFTER SUNRISE...LEADING
TO A HOT AND BREEZY DAY REGION-WIDE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. HI-RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT FORCING WILL REMAIN DISPLACED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL
TODAY...WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRIGGERING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. OUTFLOWS FROM THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR AREAS FROM
GAINESVILLE SOUTHWARD BY LATE MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY QUICKLY
PROGRESSING E-NE TOWARDS COASTAL NORTHEAST FL...GENERALLY SOUTH OF
JACKSONVILLE...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND SIGNIFICANT SPEED SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION TO
BECOME STRONG...WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOWS MAY
BRING WANING CONVECTION INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS
TODAY WILL APPROACH DAILY RECORDS...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES WITH STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILING.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING DESPITE THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD FRONT. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF MAY MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE...WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND EXTENDING TOWARDS
INTERSTATE 10 BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE 60S. LOWS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL WILL ONLY FALL TO NEAR 70.

.SHORT TERM (MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL AND THEN STALL
ON MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN COASTAL LOCATIONS FALLING TO NEAR LATE APRIL
CLIMO...WHERE MAXES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. HIGHS OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST GA SHOULD APPROACH 80...RANGING TO THE LOWER 80S
IN NORTH CENTRAL FL.

STALLED COLD FRONT THAT SAGGED SOUTH OF SE GA LIFTS VERY SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD AND STALLS ACROSS NE FL MONDAY NIGHT. MON NIGHT SHOULD
FEATURE COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 55 TO 60 ACROSS SE GA AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS NE FL. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY AND
COOLER CONDS ACRS SE GA...WHILE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS NE FL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS NE FL. THIS
SAME BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GOMEX. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRIME AHEAD OF
THE EASTWARD TRACKING SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR SE
GA AND NE FLORIDA WITH ISOLD SHWRS AND TSTMS ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM FERNANDINA BEACH FL TO HAZELHURST GA.

.MEDIUM TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ...
GFS/EURO MODELS STILL AT DIFFER WITH SPECIFIC EVOLUTION...MOISTURE
FIELDS AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW...WITH ECMWF STRONG AND DEEPER
WITH THE LOW. BOTH THE 00Z GFS /ECMWF BOTH HAVE ESTABLISHED A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK FAVORING MORE CONVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER WITH SFC LOW OVER SE GA 18Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS FEATURE QUICKLY EJECTS NE TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX AND TRACK ACROSS
FL PANHANDLE... NORTH FLORIDA AND SE GA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS CAN BE STRONG AND BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS AND ANY
TRAINING ACTIVITY THAT MAY OCCUR. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS SE GA TO LOWER 80S ACROSS NCNTRL
FL...BUT AGAIN WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ON THURSDAY...UPPER TROF AND SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE CAROLINA
COASTAL REGION WITH NWLY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING WITH SOME
POSSIBLE WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE EARLY IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...THE
EURO AND GFS HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRY PATTERN WITH SEASONABLY
COOLER CONDS. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER BUT WEAKER GULF
LOW...BUT WELL MOVES THIS FEATURE FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
OR SOUTH FLORIDA BY NEXT WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES DURING
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AROUND 500 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z AT GNV
AND SGJ. MVFR CIGS OF 1000-1500 FT ARE POSSIBLE AT THE DUVAL
COUNTY TERMINALS AND SSI THROUGH 13Z. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
PERSIST JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AROUND 35 KNOTS AT 1500 FT.
HOWEVER...SURFACE SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE TO
NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND WE WILL DISCONTINUE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN
THE REGIONAL TAFS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z.
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT GNV
AND SGJ THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY ADD TEMPO GROUPS TOWARDS
16Z FOR THESE TERMINALS IN THE 12Z TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT
TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE TOWARDS 22Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH LATE MORNING IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO AN ONSHORE DIRECTION FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH SPEEDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON
TUESDAY...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION OVER THE GEORGIA
WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
TO AT LEAST CAUTION LEVELS OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH NEAR
CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY DUE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW
WAVE HEIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  61  78  57 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  89  65  73  63 /  20  30  10  10
JAX  91  66  78  62 /  30  30  20  30
SGJ  90  70  77  65 /  50  30  30  30
GNV  89  70  83  64 /  50  30  40  50
OCF  88  70  83  66 /  50  40  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NELSON/CORDERO



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