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Area Forecast Discussion

107
FXUS62 KJAX 251957
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT
THIS POINT...PLACING PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
FAST CLEARING OCCURS OF CURRENT CLOUD COVER...AND HOW FAST NEXT
AREA OF CLOUDS MOVES IN...FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT AREA OF CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS DISTURBANCE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS WAVE WOULD PUT MOST OF THE SYSTEMS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TONIGHT...EXCEPT WARMER
NEAR THE COAST DUE TO AN ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
EXPECTED. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL KEEP AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN PLACE FOR OUR
WESTERN LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING
TO HIGH END CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS AS ACTIVITY COINCIDES WITH MAXIMUM HEATING AND A ROBUST
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST WIND FIELD PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EARLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS NEAR 70 FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA...WITH MID/UPPER 70S
FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHEAST GA...WITH
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH TOTALS FOR NORTHEAST FL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART COASTAL LOCATIONS BY SUNSET
FRI NIGHT...WITH A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERING INTO OUR REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 10-15
MPH RANGE...MAKING LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S FEEL EVEN COLDER. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. DESPITE
FULL SUNSHINE...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW LATE MARCH CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE
60-65 RANGE REGION-WIDE. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY RELAX SAT NIGHT...KEEPING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN
THE 5-10 MPH RANGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SENDING A FEW REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUN...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S REGION-WIDE
FOR ONE MORE AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS SUN NIGHT
WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO THE 40S AREA-WIDE. MODERATION BEGINS
MONDAY AS TROUGHING ALOFT EXITS THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARDS CLIMO...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BOOSTING
HIGHS INTO THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AT INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER
WEAK BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS CONTINUING. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS HEIGHTS ALOFT
RISE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 80 INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S
AT THE COAST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS SEA BREEZES
BECOME ACTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS AT
AREA TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE DISSIPATES JUST NORTH OF AREA WATERS THIS
EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WITH A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT
TO MOVE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES TONIGHT...LIKELY BECOMING
LOW ON THURSDAY AS OCEAN SWELLS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
AND INLAND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  80  62  69 /  10  40  50  60
SSI  58  74  63  71 /  10  40  40  60
JAX  56  81  64  76 /  10  40  40  70
SGJ  62  79  65  75 /  10  30  40  70
GNV  55  84  65  76 /  10  40  40  70
OCF  56  85  66  77 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/NELSON/GUILLET



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