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Area Forecast Discussion

440
FXUS62 KJAX 221448
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1048 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...

TWO SMALL +PV ANOMALIES WERE DEPICTED IN THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR
ANALYSIS. ONE WAS LOCATED FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CONTINUING THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...AND ON INTO THE GULF. THE OTHER WAS FURTHER WEST AND
ESSENTIALLY CO-LOCATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT ANALYZED THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FIRST AND WEAKEST
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY AS IT MERGES IN WITH THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE. AS THE ENTIRE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES EAST...SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT AND WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY THIS EVENING. IN
GENERAL...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE WEAKENING TREND AS
THE MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH GEORGIA. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE FLORIDA GEORGIA LINE...THOUGH IF A FEW SPRINKLES MAKE
IT...IT WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS...WHILE REMAINING
AROUND 80 DEGREES NEARER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. VCSH AFTER 00Z AT
SSI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SE GA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [345 AM EDT]...

SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S ON THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED
SEABREEZE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE LEVELS.


LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL BE NEARLY
ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND WITH DAILY SEABREEZES KEEPING
THE COAST IN THE LOWER 80S.


MARINE...COMBINED SEAS WERE BELOW 5 FT AND THUS DROPPED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE FL WATERS. WEST WINDS OF 10 KTS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTN WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OFFSHORE DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS
OF 2-3 FT. WSW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT TO NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS AS A WEAKENING SFC FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE WED WHILE SHIFT NNE
AS HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE REGION BRIDGES THE FRONTAL ZONE.
EASTERLY FLOW 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...THEN
FRI WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE OF THE SE
COAST WITH A PREVAILING SSW FLOW EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN ON WED DUE TO LONG PERIOD EAST SWELLS. EARLY THIS MORNING
SWELLS OF 2-3 FT WERE IMPACTING THE WATERS WITH PERIODS OF 12-13
SECONDS.


HYDROLOGY...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT MANY
LOCAL RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE ALTAMAHA...SANTA FE...ST
MARYS...AND SUWANNEE RIVERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  60  83  59 /  20  60  10   0
SSI  76  64  73  63 /   0  40  10   0
JAX  84  62  81  61 /   0  20  10  10
SGJ  81  62  77  66 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  84  60  84  61 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  83  58  85  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...WFO TAE (HARRIGAN/MOORE)
REST OF DISCUSSION...WFO JAX (ZIBURA/ENYEDI)







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