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Area Forecast Discussion

863
FXUS62 KJAX 230237
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
936 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS FOR THIS EVE ACROSS NE FL...BUT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY
INTO SE GA WHERE THERE MAY BE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BY LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST HRRR AND NARRE SHOW VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL FIRST AFFECT
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
THEN SHIFT TOWARDS SSI CLOSER TO SUNRISE WITH RAIN LINGERING THERE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NE FLORIDA TERMINALS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE
RAIN AROUND SUNRISE WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND WINDS
VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND TURNING GUSTY. ADDITIONAL MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT VFR CEILINGS (3K-5K FEET) ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. EAST WINDS AVERAGING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 7 FEET NEARSHORE AND 7 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE
WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER BREAKERS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE WITH THE EVENING
UPDATE.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK WILL CONTINUE DUE TO 15 TO 25 KNOT ONSHORE
WINDS AND BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  73  65  77 / 100 100  70  40
SSI  63  73  66  76 / 100 100  70  40
JAX  64  78  66  81 / 100 100  50  50
SGJ  69  79  68  79 /  90  90  40  50
GNV  64  79  65  79 /  90  80  50  50
OCF  67  82  66  81 /  80  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

PETERSON/SHULER/












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