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Area Forecast Discussion

742
FXUS62 KJAX 240748
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE AND STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE NE WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS. A
DEEPENING SE FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS AND PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE AND
DEVELOP INLAND DURING THE DAY WITH HEATING. ISOLATED P.M. THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT THE BEACHES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 80S BEACHES TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WELL INLAND.

TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...STACKED HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST EAST
OF THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH A PREVAILING MEAN LAYER ESE
STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL FOCUS THE BEST CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS INLAND ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-
75 CORRIDOR. GFS40 ADVERTISED PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES TUE
THEN BELOW 1 INCH WED SO WITH STACKED RIDING AND MEAGER MOISTURE
CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT 20-30% FOR INLAND AREAS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
TSTORM POTENTIAL. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S COAST
TO NEAR 90 INLAND TOWARD I-75 WITH MILD LOWS NEAR 70 INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN/ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN...

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AND RISING TEMPERATURES AS
STACKED RIDGING DOMINATES OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE 1000-500 MB
RIDGE AXIS LINGERING OVER SOUTH GA. PREVAILING ESE FLOW WILL FOCUS
BEST CHANCES OF MAIN AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS
INLAND. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO 70S
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATOCU WILL BE SCT-BKN TODAY WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MORE LIKELY AT
SSI...CRG...AND SGJ. EAST WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE PEAKED AND WILL BE MOSTLY IN 15-20 KNOT RANGE
TODAY SO WILL REPLACE ADVISORY WITH SCEC HEADLINE. SEAS WILL BE IN
4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LONG E-SE WIND FETCH PERSISTS.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CAUTION
HEADLINE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK DUE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND
ELEVATED SURF CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED DISPERSIONS TODAY UNDER BREEZY EAST WINDS
10-15 MPH GUSTS TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  69  88  69 /  10  10  30  10
SSI  80  73  82  75 /  20  40  40  10
JAX  83  72  86  70 /  30  10  10  10
SGJ  81  74  82  74 /  40  30  10  10
GNV  87  69  89  69 /  40  10  10  10
OCF  89  70  90  70 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL DUVAL-
     COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/ENYEDI



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