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Area Forecast Discussion

266
FXUS62 KJAX 240835
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
426 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM THE NE GULF TO THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SWD AND MOVE INTO N
CENTRAL FL BY MID MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE I-75
CORRIDOR BUT SCT-BROKEN MID DECK CLOUDS MAY KEEP VSBY FROM GOING
MUCH BELOW 1-2 MILES. A SURGE OF NELY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY WITH OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OUR NRN AND NW ZONES. NIL POPS TODAY...WITH SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.
TEMPS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S N ZONES TO
MID 80S SW ZONES. BREEZY NELY WINDS AT THE COAST/BEACHES AROUND 15-
20G30MPH AT TIMES. THE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
BY 5-6 PM.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT THAT DROPS INTO CENTRAL FL TODAY STALLS TO OUR
S THEN BEGINS TO MAKE A NWD PUSH BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SKY COVER INCREASING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AFTER
06Z. MINS FCST IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS
TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS WRN ZONES AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES.

.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW
OVER OUR REGION.  A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GA
ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY POSSIBLY DEVELOPING A FEW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. OUR AREA WILL THEN BE LOCATED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST GA FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD IGNITE AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY...WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE BEING THE LIKELY TRIGGER
MECHANISM IN FL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER
SOUTHEAST GA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS FOR COASTAL
NORTHEAST FL AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS A PINNED ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LESS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE/ST. AUGUSTINE AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTS OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL VEERING PROFILE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -
9 CELSIUS. GIVEN THESE VARIABLES AND STRENGTHENING SW/W WINDS
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE REST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE.

STRONG W/SW FLOW WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY LOCALLY.
THIS MAY DEVELOP AN EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THAT MAY MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY REGION-
WIDE...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GA AS TROUGHING ALOFT DIGS
SOUTHWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF WAYCROSS TO BRUNSWICK. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FL...WHERE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...OVERALL
FORCING IS QUESTIONABLE...AND THUS DECIDED TO USE SCATTERED
COVERAGE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR REGION WITHIN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY.
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BOOST HIGHS TO THE 85-90 RANGE REGION-
WIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CONVECTION CONCLUDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EMERGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STALL OVER CENTRAL FL MONDAY...AND THEN WILL
RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER MAINLY INLAND LOCATIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL MONDAY...WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
SOUTHEAST GA EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS DRY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S AT THE COAST DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE LOWER 80S
IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FL
ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN SOUTHEAST GA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60
FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA TO THE MID/UPPER 60S IN FL. LIKELY POPS
ARE EXPECTED TUES AND TUES NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MIGRATE THROUGH OUR AREA. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT TUES AND ALONG A COLD FRONT/STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW
WED. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL RANGE FROM 75-80...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS FALLING TO
THE 55-60 RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VSBY/LOW STRATUS
FOR A BRIEF TIME AT GNV EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO N EARLY THEN NE BY MID MORNING. STRONGER NE WINDS
FOR SSI...CRG...SGJ...JAX AND VQQ TERMINALS UP AROUND 12-15G20KT
THEN WEAKENING BY THIS EVENING AND TURNING E TO SE OVERNIGHT AT 10
KT OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...W TO NW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOMING STRONGER OUT OF THE TO N TO NE BEHIND EARLY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUOYS SHOW WE WILL
LIKELY REACH SCA CONDITIONS FOR ABOUT A 4-8 HOUR PERIOD TODAY SO
HOISTED SCA FOR THE NRN WATERS TIL 4 PM TODAY THOUGH COULD BE
SLIGHTLY EARLIER BASED ON LATEST RAP MODEL. SEAS FCST TO BUILD TO
ABOUT 4-6 FT BY MID DAY. FOR SRN WATERS S OF THE ST AUGUSTINE SCEC
HEADLINE WILL SUFFICE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSES
TO OUR N. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WATERS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...STALLING MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL FL. A SFC LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE W ON TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK AS SURF BUILDS TODAY. LOW TO MODERATE
RISK FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  59  82  68 /  10  10  70  40
SSI  71  63  79  70 /   0  10  60  40
JAX  76  63  85  70 /   0  10  60  40
SGJ  74  67  85  71 /  10  10  50  20
GNV  82  63  87  71 /  10  10  40  20
OCF  86  65  86  71 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/NELSON



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