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Area Forecast Discussion

401
FXUS62 KJAX 151228
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
828 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK EAST...MOVING INTO WESTERN GA THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE MOVED INTO INTERIOR SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL.
THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL MOVE INTO NE FL LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP IS OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGEST LINE OF STORMS AND WITH THE
TREND LIKELY TO CONTINUE GIVEN THE MOISTURE TAP OFF THE
GOMEX...WILL INSERT HEAVY RAIN WORDING WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
COVERAGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. 1 HR/3 HR RAINFALL RATES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...THUS
WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WITH SOME DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...WILL RETAIN GUSTY WINDS WITH THE TSTMS. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
FOR SE GA...WITH 70S FOR NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN TO MVFR/AREAS OF IFR AS
THE PRECIP SHIELD IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH LATE IN
THE AFTN WITH RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS IN THE EVENING. SKIES WILL
CLEAR BY THE OVERNIGHT WITH BREEZY NW WINDS LINGERING.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
WATERS IN THE AFTN. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE STORMS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SCA OFFSHORE BY AFTN...AND NEARSHORE BY THIS EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK WEDNESDAY WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  40  65  44 / 100   0   0  10
SSI  74  48  60  54 /  90  20  10  20
JAX  78  44  64  53 / 100  10  10  30
SGJ  82  54  65  61 /  70  20  20  30
GNV  78  44  70  51 / 100   0  10  30
OCF  79  44  72  56 / 100  10  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BRADFORD-CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-MARION-PUTNAM-
     ST JOHNS.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/ENYEDI/WALKER






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