« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » JAX Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

355
FXUS62 KJAX 241857
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
257 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.NEAR TERM /Through Tomorrow/...

Other than the current stray shower or two along the southeast
Georgia coast over the next hour or two, the rest of the area
should remain primarily dry this afternoon. Some light shower
activity over the coastal waters tonight will threaten the
coastline during the pre-dawn hours. Some shower activity will
continue to move onshore Thursday morning and then shift farther
inland Thursday afternoon.

It will be another muggy night along the coast with the beaches
only dropping down to the lower 80s again. Locations well inland
will see temps near normal tonight. Low clouds will increase off
the Atlantic late tonight into Thursday. The combination of the
coastal showers and increased cloud cover will keep it much cooler
along the coast tomorrow with temps a bit below normal. Locations
well inland however will climb into the lower 90s, possibly mid
90s across our northwestern zones where clear skies will prevail
as drier air mixes down.

.SHORT TERM....Thu Night through Sat Night...

Thu night through Sat...Stacked high pressure will continue north
of the region with a trough axis ESE of the region. This pattern
will maintain a deep layer ENE flow across the local area with
waves of showers and only isolated tstorm activity moving inland
along the Atlantic coast each morning/early afternoon then
activity blossoming farther inland during the afternoon toward the
I-75 corridor aided by diurnal heating. Drier air with PWAT values
falling below 1.5 inches will advect across the area under deep
layer NE flow Fri midday which will bring even lower rain chances
across the forecast area Fri afternoon through Sat afternoon with
the only a low 20-30% advertised across our Fl zones with the
higher values along and south of a SGJ-GNV line. SE Ga will remain
mostly dry.

Sat night...Low pressure nears the Bahamas with a coastal trough
axis extending northward and advancing toward the local coastline
Sat night...with an increase in convection east to west through
Sat night as coastal convergence increases. Temperatures will
range max temps in the lower 90s across inland SE Ga to the
mid/upper 80s across NE FL and along the coast with overnight low
temps in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...Sun through Wed...

Sun & Mon....High pressure will continue north of the area as low
pressure moves westward across the Bahamas/South Fl and toward the
southeast GOMEX. Easterly flow will continue across the local area
with the deepest moisture and thus highest rain chances across our
coastal zones and across northeast Florida...with drier air
lingering across SE Ga. Temperatures will hover near climo values
with the warmer highs near 90 across inland SE Ga and mid/upper
80s across NE Fl and along the coast due to onshore flow and
passing convection. Muggy overnight conditions will continue with
lows in the mid/upper 70s inland to near 80 along the coast and
St. Johns River Basin.

Tue & Wed...Models continue to diverge with the track and
evolution of the surface low as it tracks across the eastern GOMEX
early next week. Continued to use the WPC/NHC collaborated
synoptic pattern which advertised the low tracking into the
northern Gulf through midweek next week which will likely extend a
convergent zone/trough axis across some portion of our forecast
area. This trough axis combined with an increase in tropical
moisture will bring elevated rain chances across our local zones.
Consensus guidance indicated the highest rain chances will
continue across NE Florida and along the Atlantic coast Tue then
will shift farther northward Wed into SE Ga. Temperatures will be
tempered by the increase in convection with highs only in the
mid/upper 80s by Wed with a continuation of muggy overnight
conditions with minimum temperatures in the mid/upper 70s to near
80 along the coast.

It is till too far out to discern exact local impacts from this
low pressure system but it does look probable for an increase in
rain chances as tropical moisture increases over the area early
next week. In addition the extended period of onshore flow and
building swells through the weekend will increase the risk of rip
currents. There will also be an increased potential for elevated
water levels along the coast next week due to both the onshore
flow and also above normal astronomical tides with the new moon on
Sept. 1st.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR Conditions will continue through this evening. Gusty winds
along the coast will gradually settle down some this evening. Some
coastal showers are expected to move onshore and be near the TAF
sites late tonight through tomorrow morning. Soundings also
indicate a fairly decent potential for MVFR ceilings during this
timeframe as stratocu clouds increase off the Atlantic. Ceilings
should lift above 3K feet by Thursday afternoon as shower activity
shifts more inland.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure north of the area will result in an extended period
of onshore flow through the weekend. Northeasterly winds will
gradually subside tonight but small craft will need to continue to
exercise caution, especially over the offshore waters this
evening. Building easterly swells will be possible late in the
weekend into early next week due to Tropical activity over the
Atlantic.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  94  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  80  88  78  88 /  20  30  10  10
JAX  72  89  74  90 /  20  30  10  10
SGJ  81  87  79  88 /  20  30  20  20
GNV  73  91  74  91 /  10  30  10  20
OCF  74  92  74  91 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shuler/Enyedi/



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.