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Area Forecast Discussion

011
FXUS62 KJAX 190649
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
249 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.UPDATE...WILL GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE GA WATERS
THIS MORNING UNTIL 11 AM.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
ALONG THE SE GA-NE FL BORDER. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NE
FL EARLY THIS MORNING EXITING THE AREA AROUND 12Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND THEN VEER TO THE NE BY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY SO AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER SE GA AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER
NE FL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL HOVER OFFSHORE
THE NE FL COAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY POOL NEAR THIS FEATURE TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF JAX
MONDAY. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM JAX TO SGJ...WITH LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR FLAGLER COUNTY MONDAY AFTN. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR NE FL...TO
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE NE FL COAST AND MOST OF SE GA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55-60 INLAND TO THE MID 60S COAST. FOR
TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
IS STRONGEST AND MORE MOIST...TRYING TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER AND LESS SHARP WITH THE WAVE.
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER LAND AREAS TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE CONUS MIDWEEK WILL EXIT WITH RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. DRU CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SE GA/NE FL. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LOW STRATOCUMULUS
OFF THE ATLANTIC TODAY MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS NEAR THE EAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED NEAR THE GA-FL LINE
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING(06Z-09Z) AT NE
FL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST(SSI AND CRG).

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE SCEC
CONDITIONS TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS...AND
SEAS 4-6 FEET WITH A LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE
GONZALO. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE TUESDAY BUT HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH TODAY DUE TO
LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS AND INCREASING NE WINDS/WAVES IN WAKE
OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  51  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  72  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  75  58  81  61 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  76  63  80  65 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  79  56  83  61 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  82  59  84  62 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/










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