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Area Forecast Discussion

054
FXUS62 KJAX 301923
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
323 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/...

A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH SE GA FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THE FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT... SO
EXPECTED SLOW MOVING CELLS. THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN AS WAS IN PLACE LAST NIGHT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FALLS TODAY.

EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER INLAND SE GA
ON FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE A MEAN LAYER (1000-
500 MB) GETS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY IN THE EASTERN U.S. MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS SUGGESTS
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES ALONG WITH DEEPENING W TO SW FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY WITH ACTIVITY MOST
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. A RANGE IN HIGH TEMPS FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S
ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS NE FL DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER/HIGHER POPS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. WHILE THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EAST. THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS THE AREA...THEN
SHIFTS WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST BY MID WEEK AS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS CNTL AND S FL. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH
OF THE AREA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL GET POOLED INTO THE AREA WITH A PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW EACH DAY. THIS RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL POPS
WITH HIGHEST POPS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. TEMPS HELD IN CHECK
SOMEWHAT ACROSS NE FL DUE TO CLOUD COVER WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS SE GA DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER/SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WITH A LINGERING TROUGH OVER
THE REGION...AND THE ADDITION OF ANY LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT FROM
TODAYS RAIN... COULD SEE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...HAVE HINTED AT THIS POTENTIAL DURING
THE FRIDAY PRE DAWN HOURS IN THE 18Z TAF...AND THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED
WITH LATER FORECASTS BASED ON HOW BROAD THE RAINFALL COVERAGE IS
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM NORTH OF
AREA WATERS TO OVER THE AREA WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  93  74  93 /  50  50  40  50
SSI  78  90  76  87 /  40  50  40  50
JAX  75  91  75  90 /  50  60  30  50
SGJ  76  90  74  87 /  50  60  40  50
GNV  73  90  73  88 /  60  60  40  60
OCF  74  90  73  87 /  60  60  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

LS/PP



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