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Area Forecast Discussion

012
FXUS62 KJAX 030804
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
405 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...LESS STORM ACTIVITY TODAY...

.NEAR TERM...TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS FAIRLY
ABSENT TODAY AS SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RAP MODEL DOES SHOW A QUICK MOVING
SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAINLY OVER OUR NRN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE FOR CONVECTIVE.
THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH PRIMARILY ISOLD AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS (15-
20 PERCENT) MOST AREAS WITH GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING A BETTER
CHANCE OVER OUR SRN ZONES WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES. WSW TO W FLOW...LESS CLOUDINESS...AND 850 MB TEMPS A TAD
HIGHER SUGGEST HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S WITH AFTN E COAST SEA BREEZE ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AT THE COAST. FOR TONIGHT...ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
WITH BEST CHANCES LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR NE FL ZONES E OF HIGHWAY
301. MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT MAY PRODUCE VERY ISOLD WEAK CONVECTION
OVER OUR ERN ZONES IN THE PREVAILING SWLY FLOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A SHORTWAVE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION
EARLY SAT TO THE APPALACHIANS SUN NIGHT. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN
BENEATH DEEP-LAYERED  RIDGING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF INDEPENDENCE
DAY...AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS NUDGES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FL.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL FL
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND DUE TO PREVAILING S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. OUR
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZES IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH OUTFLOWS PUSHING NORTHWARD AND
IGNITING SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST
GA...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF WAYCROSS. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST
FL AS A SEA BREEZE COLLISION TAKES PLACE. PLENTY OF MORNING SUNSHINE
WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 90S. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD
CLIMB TO 100-105 RANGE.

EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ON SAT...WITH RE-
IGNITION EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT AS
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADS INTO OUR REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 70-75.

THE SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SUN...CREATING
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY AS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZES PUSH INLAND EARLIER IN THE DAY. NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN BETWEEN THE I-75 AND I-95 CORRIDORS IN
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH HIGH END SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S INLAND BEFORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS...WITH UPPER 80S AT COASTAL LOCATIONS AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATING
THROUGH OUR REGION SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN PLACE NORTH OF WAYCROSS ALL NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES
ELSEWHERE. LOWS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM 70-75.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE REGION-WIDE EARLY NEXT AS
SHARP TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE APPALACHIANS ONLY
GRADUALLY FILLS BY MIDWEEK. DEEP-LAYER S-SW FLOW PREVAILS MON AND
TUES AS ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS  REMAINS OVER FL PENINSULA. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY REGION-WIDE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND AN EARLIER START TO THE CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 85-90 RANGE. A SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL LIKELY SPARK
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG U.S.
HIGHWAY 301 ON TUES...WITH HIGH-END SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING WED AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING ALOFT
EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. WE STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZES ON WED AND
THURS AFTERNOONS...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO THE LOW/MID 90S
INLAND DUE TO AN EXPECTED LATER START TO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WITH UPPER 80S PREVAILING AT THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. OUR REGION MAY
BE IN A SUBSIDENT REGION ON THE PERIPHERY OF A TUTT CROSSING SOUTH
FL ON FRI...POSSIBLY PROMOTING A FURTHER DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S INLAND. LOWS
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE MUGGY 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY COMPARED
TO PRIOR DAYS. ONLY VCTS PLACED IN FOR GNV TAF WHERE CHANCES ARE
NEAR 20 PERCENT. W TO SW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME NEAR 10 KT BY 14Z.
LATE AFTN SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AT SGJ...CRG AND SSI.

&&

.MARINE...AXIS OF BERMUDA SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN S OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PREVAILING SW TO W FLOW DAY BUT SHIFT
TO SE/S ANTICIPATED EACH AFTN DUE TO THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE.
NOCTURNAL SWLY SURGES UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MAY
PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT. MARGINAL SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS TONIGHT BUT TOO SHORT-LIVED AND LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MEETING
CRITERIA. MAIN BOATING CONCERNS SURROUND DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT WILL PUSH TO THE COASTLINE AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. ISOLD THREAT TODAY...THEN SCT STORMS IN THE AFTN
AND EVENING FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TSTORM WIND
GUSTS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST 30-35 KT AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

RIP CURRENTS: SWELLS/NEARSHORE WIND WAVES ROUGHLY AT 1.5 FT WITH
PERIODS OF 7 TO 9 SECONDS SUGGEST SURF OF 2 FT OR LESS. THUS LOW
RISK LOOKS REASONABLE. LITTLE CHANGE FCST FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  72  94  73 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  91  76  90  75 /  20  20  40  20
JAX  94  73  94  74 /  20  20  40  20
SGJ  91  75  90  74 /  20  20  40  20
GNV  93  71  94  73 /  20  20  40  30
OCF  93  73  93  74 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/NELSON



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