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Area Forecast Discussion

206
FXUS62 KJAX 191827
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
227 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FAST MOVING STORMS ARE SWEEPING ACROSS I-10 CORRIDOR AND SE GA AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CLUSTERS OF STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-45 MPH IN A FEW BOWING LINES AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. CONVECTION SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE TO PALATKA HAS
WEAKENED AS IT MOVES EWD...BUT COULD FLARE-UP LATE THIS AFTN AS
THE OUTFLOW REACHES THE EAST COAST. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH ACTIVITY ALONG AND N OF I-10. HAVE HIGH END CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR REST OF AFTN. HI-RES MODELS KEEP LOW END POPS
PAST MIDNIGHT...AND WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS SE GA
UNTIL AROUND 2 AM. SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT
KEEPING FOG TO A MINIMUM EXCEPT FOR SOME GROUND FOG WHERE HEAVY
RAIN HAS FALLEN. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BUILDS NORTH AND WEST PRODUCING HOT
HUMID CONDITIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100F. HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS(108F) THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DAILY CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND MAINLY NEAR THE SEABREEZE FRONTS.
LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW EAST COAST SEABREEZE TO MOVE
FURTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH LATE DAY MERGERS
OCCURRING BETWEEN I-75 AND I-95 CORRIDORS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE IN SHOWING
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGE OVER
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST. BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION
DEPENDING ON TIMING. AN ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT THIS WEEKEND AND THEN
NEAR AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS TO APPROACH TERMINALS NORTH OF I-10 AFTER 02Z. THE ACTIVITY
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET ACROSS NE FL. WHILE SHRA/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AT SSI...WILL DROP VCTS AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE REPORTING W WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OFFSHORE.
SW TO W FLOW WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN FINALLY SHIFT
TO ONSHORE BY SUNDAY. WILL HEADLINE A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE WILL PUSH WINDS INTO THE 15-20 KTS
RANGE TONIGHT OFFSHORE AND 15 KTS NEARSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  73  98  76 /  60  30  20  20
SSI  94  77  93  77 /  50  20  20  20
JAX  95  74  95  76 /  40  20  30  20
SGJ  93  76  92  76 /  30  20  30  30
GNV  94  74  94  74 /  30  10  30  30
OCF  94  73  94  73 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

TRABERT/ZIBURA/ALLEN





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