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Area Forecast Discussion

188
FXUS62 KJAX 191408
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
908 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

...A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE
FL/SE GA SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GOMEX WHICH WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHILE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THICKEN AND INCREASE ACROSS SE GA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPGLIDE/OVERRUNNING STARTS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SPREADS E/NE. NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGHS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO LEVELS IN THE 60S.

TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
GOMEX WHILE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH RAINFALL CHANCES
INCREASING. THIS FIRST IMPULSE WILL MAINLY IMPACT SE GA AND AREAS
TO THE NORTHWEST AND MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAR
SOUTH MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT 30-50%
RAINFALL CHANCES NORTH OF WAYCROSS AND 15-30% RAINFALL CHANCES
FROM THE FL/GA BORDER NORTHWARD TO WAYCROSS AND GENERALLY 10% OR
LESS ACROSS NE FL AS DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED FOR SE GA
WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS NE FL. SLIGHTLY MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 45-50 DEG
RANGE EXPECTED. THE SHIFT TO A MORE MOIST SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW
OVERTOP OF A VERY LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND HAVE
ADDED A FEW HOURS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE ZFP/GRIDS/HWO TOWARDS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FOG.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS THROUGH 09Z...THEN MODELS SUGGESTING LOW PROBS OF IFR
CIGS AND/OR VSBYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE FL SOUTH OF JAX WHICH MAY
IMPACT KGNV AND/OR KVQQ. PROBS/CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN TAF SETS.

&&

.MARINE...
N/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
MORE STEADY INCREASE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. NO HEADLINES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. LOW-MOD RISK SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST
FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  45  61  48 /   0  30  30  20
SSI  63  51  62  51 /   0  20  20  10
JAX  67  48  68  53 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  65  51  68  57 /   0  10  10  10
GNV  69  46  71  55 /   0  10   0   0
OCF  70  46  72  56 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/CORDERO/ALLEN




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