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Area Forecast Discussion

332
FXUS62 KJAX 111928
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
227 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RESIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO HOVER ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. WITH THE W/SW WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE MODERATING WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S THIS AFTN.

A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CLIP SE GA...COMBINING WITH
THE WEAK FRONT TO PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH A
PERIOD OF OVERCAST SKIES POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF SE GA LATER TNGT
INTO FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST. THE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES TNGT...WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG
SOUTH INTO SE GA FRIDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN WITH ALMOST NO DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...EXPECT NO PRECIP...AND WITH THE MID LEVEL
IMPULSE EXITING TO THE NE...EXPECT CLOUDS IN THE MORNING TO
DIMINISH SOME IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY SW WINDS WILL RESULT IN
A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS NE FL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY
EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LOWER
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH
WITH NW WINDS MAKING IT FEEL COLDER. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVER INLAND
AREAS AND INTO THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE COAST. NORTH WINDS WILL STAY
UP OVERNIGHT PRODUCING WINDS CHILLS IN THE 20S. HIGHS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES REACHING THE EAST COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING. DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL TIMING EXIST AS THE ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS. WILL USE A COMPROMISE WITH RAIN
BECOMING LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ENDING TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AREA WIDE.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR SSI IN PARTICULAR AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...AND THE HIGH RES ENSEMBLE/SREF SHOW THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY OF LOW CIGS ACROSS SE GA. WILL USE SCT
LOW CLOUDS FOR NE FL SITES...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR SSI
FROM 06-15Z. W/SW WINDS 6-10 KT THIS AFTN WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE TNGT...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WITH SPEEDS REACHING SCEC OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...EXITING TO THE SOUTH
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OFFSHORE FRIDAY...CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING SW WINDS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE HIGH DISPERSIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER RH`S TO NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  46  70  42  51 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  48  66  42  53 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  47  73  46  57 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  48  71  48  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  45  73  47  61 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  45  73  51  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/ZIBURA/WALSH



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