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Area Forecast Discussion

021
FXUS62 KJAX 281905
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
305 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.NEAR TERM.../Through Wednesday/...

Scattered convection will continue to develop this afternoon due to
diurnal instability. As the afternoon progresses, convection may
organize on East and West coast sea breezes, with this convection
meeting over central Northeast Florida early this evening, before
dissipating. A trough of low pressure is expected to slide into
Southeast Georgia this afternoon, which will be an additional focus
for convection there.

The convection is expected to dissipate after sunset, with clouds
scattering.

A similar day is expected for Wednesday, with diurnal instability
continuing and another surface boundary approaching Southeast
Georgia.

Temperatures will continue to run a little above normal this period.

.SHORT TERM...
Wednesday night...Showers and thunderstorms will linger into Wednesday
evening across southeast Georgia ahead of a nearly stationary sfc
boundary across central Georgia as well as across the eastern FL
peninsula where west and east coast sea breeze collision is
expected. Coverage will slowly decrease after sunset across inland
areas with lack of diurnal heating. The best chances of late
night/early morning showers and storms will be in the vcnty of the
gulf coast with persistent southwesterly flow. Continued low temps
in the mid 70s expected.

Thursday through Friday night...Mid level shortwave trough will
develop late in the week over the northern Gulf of Mexico as a
series of impulses eject northeastward along and ahead of the
aforementioned stationary boundary to our north. This combined
with deep low level moisture will allow for earlier development of
convection Thurs and Fri and higher coverage during the afternoon
hours as sea breeze boundaries develop and converge late each day
in the vcnty of I-95. Increased cloud cover will hold max temps
near seasonal norms in the low 90s inland and upper 80s along the
coast with lows in the mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...
Sfc high pressure will slowly build into the area this weekend as
previously mentioned stationary frontal boundary lifts northward
merging with a secondary frontal boundary across the NC/TN/VA
region. This will allow for a more typical summertime pattern with
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms facilitated by
progressing sea breeze boundaries. Continued max temps in the
low/mid 90s expected with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions are expected this 18z TAF period. However,
scattered thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon and evening,
which may cause brief restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
A series of boundaries will move Southeast toward area waters, and
stall over the next few days, while a high pressure ridge remains to
the Southeast. Scattered to numerous showers and storms can be
expected.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  91  74  92 /  60  30  20  50
SSI  77  87  78  88 /  40  30  20  50
JAX  73  92  75  91 /  40  30  30  60
SGJ  75  90  76  89 /  30  30  30  50
GNV  72  92  74  91 /  30  30  20  50
OCF  73  92  74  91 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Guillet/Struble/



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