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Area Forecast Discussion

037
FXUS62 KJAX 222000
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...NO CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST AS
SKIES HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLOUDY ACRS ALL OF SE GA/NE FL AND LIGHT
RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD NE FL AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS ALL OF SE GA/NE FL BY SUNSET ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BREEZY
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15-20G25 MPH RANGE THROUGH SUNSET
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN.

TONIGHT...CLASSIC OVERRUNNING/PRE-WARM FRONTAL RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO MIX WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT AND RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE CLOSE TO 100% IN ALL
LOCATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE TOWARDS MORNING
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE
AREAS OR ALONG THE COAST DURING TIME OF HIGH TIDE OTHERWISE SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS NOT WET ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEMS TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS...ALTHOUGH LACK OF
INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY KEEP THESE FROM BECOMING
SURFACE BASED WITH ANY STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN
STEADY IN THE 60S AS RAIN COOLED AIR WILL BE OFFSET BY MILD AIR
PUSHING OFF THE ATLANTIC IN THE EASTERLY FLOW.

.SHORT TERM...

SUNDAY...MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME
HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH NE FL...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WILL SUBSIDE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE DAY AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION AS WELL. STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL CLOSE IN ON 2-3 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS SE GA AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORMAL LOW LYING AREAS. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR SUNDAY WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG AND JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SUPERCELL ACTIVITY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS IS STILL
NOT BEING WELL HANDLED BY HI RES MODELS...BUT THREAT WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS NE FL AND NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER WHERE SOME HEATING WILL
HELP FOR SOME SURFACE BASED STORM ACTIVITY AND MODERATE-HIGH
HELICITY VALUES WILL AID IN ROTATING STORMS WHICH ARGUES FOR THE SPC
SLIGHT RISK AND THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. A FEW OF THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS STORM ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. STILL LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE THREAT DETAILS/TIMING AS MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE ENERGY SEEMS
INTENT ON BEING THE DRIVING FORCE TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT BUT
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON HOW MUCH IS STILL AROUND TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE WARM SECTOR. WARM SECTOR WILL HELP TO
PUSH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S/NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS NE FL AND
LOWER 70S ACROSS SE GA. A PORTION OF THE SE/S LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN AND PRODUCE BREEZY SE/S WINDS AT 15-20G25-30 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT
RAPIDLY  NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES...LEAVING DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION.  THIS WILL IMPEDE THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH OUR WESTERN
LOCATIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL DEPICT DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES ON SUN EVENING IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...BUT WILL KEEP POPS AT
SCATTERED LEVELS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. AN
EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS...WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 60S REGION-WIDE.  ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY THROUGHOUT OUR AREA...AS HIGHS
REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S IN SOUTHEAST GA AND THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MON EVENING...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS DYNAMICS OVER OUR AREA WEAKEN.  THE
FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL ON MON NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE  OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY...WHERE LOWS
WILL FALL TO NEAR 50. LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR THE
REST OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. MAINTAINED SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL MON NIGHT CLOSER TO THE
FRONT...AND RAISED CHANCES IN COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA TOWARDS TUES
MORNING AS THE WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE GULF.

.LONG TERM...
THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA FROM TUES THROUGH WED. THIS WILL SET
UP A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING RAINFALL EVENT OVER
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS FROM LATE TUES THROUGH EARLY WED. CHANCE POPS WERE
USED FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. HIGHS ON TUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
REGION-WIDE AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. LOWS
TUES NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE 40S...SETTING UP DAMP AND CHILLY
CONDITIONS FOR TRAVELERS THROUGH EARLY WED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE TUES AND WED IN NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL. LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST ON WED...WITH INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKING INTO OUR
REGION AND KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 50S. RAINFALL WILL FINALLY DEPART
OUR AREA ON WED EVENING...ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL TO THE 30S INLAND
AND 40S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY BENEATH SUNNY SKIES...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS INLAND WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ON THURS
NIGHT...WITH 40S AT THE COAST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS BROAD TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD 3000-4000 FEET OVERCAST DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT TAF SITES
AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND LOWERS AS RAIN DEVELOPS AND SPREADS
NORTHWARD AND MVFR CIGS IN THE 2000-3000 FEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z ALONG WITH A MORE STEADY RAINFALL 5-6SM VSBYS.
BTWN 00Z-04Z...CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE 1000-2000 FT
RANGE WITH MODERATE RAINFALL AND 4-5SM VSBYS...AFTER 04Z...FULL
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH CIGS IN THE 500-1000 FT RANGE (IFR) AND
VSBYS DOWN INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS SELY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40 KNOTS.
AFTER 15-16Z...SOME LIFTING OF CIGS/VSBYS/RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR NE
FL TAF SITES AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS JUST NORTH OF THESE
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST SUN
AFTN/EVE AFTER WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN WINDS/SEAS START TO SUBSIDE
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY...AND HEADLINES WILL SLOWLY COME TO
AN END.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAKER
HEIGHTS NOW INTO THE 4-6 FT RANGE AS PER SURF REPORTS AND WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING IN CASE OF THE NEED FOR HIGH SURF
ADVISORY BREAKERS OF 7 FT OR MORE. COASTAL FLOODING NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD LEVELS BUT MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST RIVER GAGES ARE AT FAIRLY LOW VALUES AND WILL SEE SHARP RISES
WITH WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS
BUT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS FIRST RAINFALL EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  73  66  77 / 100 100  70  40
SSI  63  73  65  73 / 100 100  70  40
JAX  64  78  67  79 / 100 100  50  50
SGJ  69  79  66  79 /  90  90  40  50
GNV  64  79  66  79 / 100  80  50  50
OCF  67  82  66  81 /  80  60  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20
     NM.

&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH







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