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Area Forecast Discussion

679
FXUS62 KJAX 031842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...LESS STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE 4TH OF JULY...

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...THE BEST
FORCING IS ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. THERE
IS A BOWING CONVECTIVE FEATURE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA THAT MAY ENCROACH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA / GEORGIA
BORDER THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROTRUDING FROM THIS BOWING SEGMENT THAT MAY BROACH
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HENCE...BUMPED UP TSTM AND RAIN CHANCES (30-40 PERCENT) ALONG THE
NORTHERN PRECIPICE OF OUR NORTHERN GEORGIA ZONES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. OTHERWISE...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E-W FROM ACROSS FROM
BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH W-SWLY SFC FLOW CONTINUING WITH SEA
BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE MAY GET
GOING...NUDGING WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF PONTE VEDRA TOWARD PALM COAST
THIS LATE AFTERNOON. IF SO...THE SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST THIS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE INLAND AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO PALATKA TO PALM
COAST. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER ZONES.
THE SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION AND LACK OF
FORCING SHOULD ALLOW THE LIMITED AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION TO
DWINDLE MARKEDLY DURING THE EARLY/MID EVENING.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT ACROSS CNTL AND SOUTH FL WHILE A
MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AMPLIFIES AND MOVES NE ACROSS
TENN AND WEST VA. THIS LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A DEEP AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW AS THE TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE
GULF COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND AND
COMBINE WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES. BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND MOST OF
THE OUTFLOWS MERGE. POPS WILL BE LIKELY MOST AREAS MONDAY AS
STRONGER SW STEERING FLOW BRINGS IN    AN EARLIER ONSET OF
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE GULF AND SPREADS IT EAST TO THE EAST COAST
BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TO
THE AREA. THEREAFTER...AN EAST WEST DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AREA BRINGING NEAR CLIMO TEMPS/POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS. ONLY VCTS PLACED IN FOR
GNV TAF WHERE CHANCES ARE NEAR 20 PERCENT. W TO SW FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR 10 KTS. LATE AFTN SEA BREEZE EXPECTED AT SGJ...CRG
AND SSI. WEST WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT INTO THE 4 TO 7 KNOT RANGE.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL FL
DURING THE LATE MORNING AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND
DUE TO PREVAILING S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. HENCE...VCTS AT KGNV BETWEEN
15 AND 18Z ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AXIS OF BERMUDA SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN S OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PREVAILING SW TO W FLOW DAY BUT SHIFT
TO SE/S ANTICIPATED EACH AFTN DUE TO THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE.
NOCTURNAL SWLY SURGES UP TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AND MAY
PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-5 FT. MARGINAL SCA POSSIBLE FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS TONIGHT BUT TOO SHORT-LIVED AND LOWER CONFIDENCE ON MEETING
CRITERIA. MAIN BOATING CONCERNS SURROUND DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT WILL PUSH TO THE COASTLINE AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. ISOLD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SCT STORMS IN
THE AFTN AND EVENING FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TSTORM WIND GUSTS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST 30-35 KT AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

RIP CURRENTS:  SWELLS/NEARSHORE WIND WAVES ROUGHLY AT 1.5 FT WITH
PERIODS OF 7 TO 9 SECONDS SUGGEST SURF OF 2 FT OR LESS. THUS LOW
RISK LOOKS REASONABLE. LITTLE CHANGE FCST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  93  71  92 /  20  20  20  50
SSI  76  90  77  89 /  30  40  20  40
JAX  73  93  73  91 /  20  40  20  60
SGJ  75  90  75  88 /  20  40  20  50
GNV  72  93  72  92 /  20  40  30  60
OCF  74  94  73  91 /  20  40  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SC/PP



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