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Area Forecast Discussion

253
FXUS62 KJAX 250234
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
934 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTERACTING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
HAS PRODUCED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NE GULF
COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SE GA. SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NE THIS EVE AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING FOR SE GA AND AREAS
WEST OF JAX THIS EVE. AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SE TOWARDS THE AREA
AND CATCHES UP WITH THE TROUGH...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS
BUT A FEW STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

CLIMATE INFO...IF MIN TEMP DOES NOT FALL BELOW 70 BEFORE MIDNIGHT...
JAX WILL HAVE A RECORD HIGH MIN TEMP IN ADDITION TO THE RECORD
MAX OF 86 TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF TUE
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE FL PENINSULA. WAVES OF PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL IMPACT SSI THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH PRECIP EDGING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE JAX TERMINALS AND
GNV THROUGH 04Z-05Z. THE PREVAILING VFR TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING
WILL LOWER TO PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LOWER
REDUCTIONS TO LIFR BETWEEN 07Z-09Z. SSW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
WNW AS THE FRONTAL ZONE BISECTS THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING BUT
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT 6 KTS OR LESS. LOW LIFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF TUE WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WITH CIGS
RISING TO MVFR EARLY AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND DECREASE SOMEWHAT
BY LATE TONIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL BE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN EXERCISE CAUTION FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
BY LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS
ON TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LONG
PERIOD SWELLS SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  58  47  59 /  60  70  90  30
SSI  65  65  49  56 /  60  80  90  40
JAX  65  69  51  60 /  60  90 100  40
SGJ  67  73  53  62 /  50 100 100  40
GNV  67  72  50  61 /  60 100 100  30
OCF  66  76  52  62 /  50 100 100  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ABE








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