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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KJAX 291426

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1026 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...A slow moving/quasi-stationary front is lying east-
west across north central Georgia and portions of the Low Country.
This boundary will become active later this morning and this
afternoon pushing outflow boundaries southward into southern
Georgia and kicking off additional convection there. Across
coastal southeast Georgia and east coast of Florida the Atlantic
sea breeze front will try to form by late morning...however...with
a synoptic southwest to west flow it will be pinned along the east
coast. Any outflows moving south out of Georgia and along the sea
breeze will enhance convection along the east coast. Expect the
sea breeze will begin to fire convection between 1 and 3 p.m. but
things really fire between 3 and 7 p.m. and then continue about 40
miles either side of the Florida-Georgia State Line and over the
coastal waters well past midnight.

The Storms Prediction Center has us in general convection but mid
level temperatures have cooled off to the -5 to -7C range and
given low level forcing expect strong to locally severe storms
especially during the early afternoon before the atmosphere has
been worked over. Looking at the Hodograph for KJAX this morning
looks like erratic movement and storms will be slow movers so
more locally heavy rainfall from stationary storms and
redevelopment is likely especially over the portions of south
Georgia that saw heavy rainfall last night.


.AVIATION...Currently most of the stations have thunderstorms in
the vicinity for this afternoon. Will need to introduce Tempo
groups and periods of convection for the fields withthe next
update. Expect the SSI and BQK area to experience low cielings and
precipitation for most of the afternoon. little less for the
stations in the Jacksonville area but still significant afternoon


.MARINE...A series of boundaries will move Southeast toward area
waters, and stall over the next few days, while a high pressure
ridge remains to the Southeast. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms can be expected.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Thursday.


AMG  92  73  91  73 /  70  50  60  30
SSI  90  75  87  77 /  70  40  50  30
JAX  93  73  91  75 /  70  50  60  30
SGJ  90  74  88  75 /  60  50  60  30
GNV  92  72  90  74 /  50  40  60  20
OCF  92  74  90  74 /  50  30  60  20


.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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