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Area Forecast Discussion

692
FXUS62 KJAX 181941
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTN IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THINNING OF THE DECK IS OCCURRING THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA...AND THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE
JUST SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TNGT...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL EXIT TO THE NE
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO VEER TO THE NE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE ON
FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.
EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS TNGT INTO FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDS THICKENING`
AND LOWERING FRIDAY AFTN AS THE LOW/FRONT APPROACH. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS QUITE LIMITED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTN...SO WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S COAST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS SE GA...WITH UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FOR NE FL.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEPARTS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE 40S INLAND...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LOWS ALONG THE
COAST IN THE 50S. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE
LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER.
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
70S IN NORTH CENTRAL FL ON SAT AND SUN...WITH 60S FROM THE I-10
CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS ON SUN...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER NORTHEAST FL AS ONSHORE WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY/...
LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE AS IT RUNS UP OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. LIKELY POPS WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR AREA ON SUN NIGHT AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR. SOME ELEVATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE...AND WE ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST GRIDS BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT. COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP
OVER THE AREA AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SFC COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT WPC QPF FORECASTS SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UP TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING MECHANISMS. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND
DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S BEFORE COLD
AIR ADVECTION INITIATES ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS BEGIN TO DECREASE.
MIN TEMPS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EACH NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FOG TNGT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
SLOWLY APPROACHES. LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  38  65  47  62 /   0  10  40  50
SSI  45  63  53  61 /   0  10  20  50
JAX  42  67  50  68 /   0  10  10  30
SGJ  46  65  52  67 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  42  69  48  71 /   0   0  10  20
OCF  41  70  50  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON









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