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Area Forecast Discussion

212
FXUS62 KJAX 230754
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
354 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW RAIN CHANCES AND WARM TEMPS...

THIS MORNING...A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT OVER SE GA WILL MEANDER
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NE FL EARLY THIS MORNING. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED...BUT WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ADVANCE SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WHICH WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SATELLITE SHOWED SOME LOW STRATUS STARTING FORM NEAR THE GULF
COAST JUST NORTH OF CEDAR KEY...SO EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ADVANCING INLAND OVER THE SUWANEE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK
WITH ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. MIN TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AND ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...FOG WILL ERODE BY
9 AM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 BY NOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SREF...ARW AND NMM INSIST ON POPPING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
INLAND NE FL THIS AFTN AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE WASHED
OUT FRONTAL ZONE AND THE SEA BREEZES ADVANCE INLAND. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS...MEAGER
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO
SUPPRESS BOTH CONVECTION AND CONDENSATION. OPTED TO ADVERTISE
10-14% RAIN CHANCES AFTER 4 PM AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 80S
INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST WHERE AN AFTN SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INLAND BETWEEN 1-3 PM.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NE OF THE REGION
TOWARD THE CAROLINA SEABOARD WHICH WILL BRIDGE THE FRONTAL ZONE
AND ORIENT IT MORE NW-SE OVER NE FL. COULD SEE A FEW EVENING
SHOWERS OVER NE FL...BUT AGAIN GIVEN INCREASED UPPER SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUED WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY IN THE 10-14% RANGE. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S COAST WITH SHALLOW ONSHORE FLOW.
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS.

.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL SE
FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL PUSH SEABREEZE WELL INLAND. ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
A SW FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEABREEZE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE COAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NO POPS EXPECTED FRIDAY DUE
TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING OVER THE AREA AS AN
UPPER IMPULSE TO THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND. ISOLATED INLAND CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH AFTN/EVE.
POPS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. MODELS DIFFER WITH UPPER
PATTERN AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CUTOFFS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY...POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT GNV AND VQQ
WHERE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TIL 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WILL BECOME ONSHORE NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. COMBINED SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL
PREVAIL WITH 2 FT SWELLS. SSE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS. FLOW VEERS SSW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE TROUGH STALL N OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS OVER THE FL PENINSULA TO OUR SOUTH. COMBINED
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH FRI...THEN 1-3 FT INTO THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO LINGERING
EAST SWELLS OF 2 FT AND 9-10 SECONDS. A MODERATE RISK IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON THU DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT SEVERAL
LOCAL BASINS INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE...ALTAMAHA...ST MARYS AND SANTA
FE. THE SANTA FE AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE
THE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE MARK BY THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUE RISE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  57  84  62 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  76  62  75  65 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  83  62  80  61 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  79  65  76  64 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  84  61  84  59 /  10  10  30  30
OCF  85  61  85  60 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA






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