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Area Forecast Discussion

665
FXUS62 KJAX 231823
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

...SLIGHT UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...

THROUGH TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE AS INDICATED BY WEAK BACKING
OF LOW-LEVEL WIND ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. RADAR STARTING TO SHOW
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING WELL
INLAND...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER POPPING UP ALONG EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY UNTIL WEST COAST AND EAST
COAST SEA BREEZES MERGE LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FL PENINSULA. HOURLY POP GRIDS REFLECT THIS WITH CHANCE POP VALUES
OVER EASTERN COUNTIES 20Z TO 00Z. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...LEADING TO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND...MID OR UPPER
70S COAST.

THURSDAY...NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE SERN
U.S. BUT STILL TOO FAR NW OF SE GA/NE FL TO MAKE A LOT OF IMPACT AND
ONLY EXPECT BELOW CLIMO POPS OF 20-30% ACROSS NE FL AND UP TO 40%
COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS SE GA. SWLY WINDS AT
10-15G20 MPH WILL KEEP ATLC COAST SBRZ PINNED ALONG THE COAST WITH
MAIN ACTIVITY HAPPENING LATE IN THE DAY WHEN GULF COAST SBRZ OR ANY
STORM OUTFLOWS REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND HELP STORMS TO BLOSSOM.
LACK OF STORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE
RANGE.

FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO NE FL/SE GA AND
EVEN THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT HAVE EXCESSIVE MOISTURE ALONG
WITH IT...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN STORM ACTIVITY AND FOR
NOW HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50%...BUT COULD SEE NUMEROUS STORMS IN SOME
LOCATIONS AS THE MOIST SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW CONTINUES BUT NOT AS
STRONG AS ON THURSDAY AND THE ATLC COAST SBRZ FRONT SHOULD BE
ALLOWED TO PUSH INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN TO
PROVIDE FOR A BETTER COLLISION WITH THE MORE MOIST/ACTIVE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO GET A SLIGHTLY
EARLIER START ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND GOMEX SEA BREEZE FRONTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR
CLIMO VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM /SAT-WED/...

SAT/SUN...WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WRN
ATLC AND REPLACE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ONLY EXPECT NORMAL
TO BELOW NORMAL POPS OF 30-40% THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105
DEGREE RANGE. LIGHT SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THE GULF COAST SBRZ FRONT
MEETS THE ATLC COAST SBRZ FRONT.

MON/TUE/WED...LONG-RANGE MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO BRING NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE SERN U.S. AND WEAKEN AND WASH IT OUT
ACROSS SE GA/NE FL BY THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME. STILL EXPECT MAINLY
DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL CIGS TO BKN030-040 WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS. A FEW
TSRA ARE EXPECTED AS EAST COAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES MERGE
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF FL PENINSULA. INCLUDED VCTS AFTER 20Z.
INDICATED VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT FOG AT KGNV/KVQQ.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN 15-20 KNOTS AND 3-5 FT THU NIGHT. S
TO SW WINDS WEAKEN AND DIMINISH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND
FALLS APART IN THE REGION WITH 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT INTO THE
WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK CONTINUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  95  72  93 /  20  40  40  50
SSI  77  93  77  90 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  73  95  73  93 /  20  30  30  50
SGJ  76  92  75  89 /  30  30  30  50
GNV  72  94  73  92 /  20  20  20  50
OCF  73  94  73  92 /  20  20  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/HESS/NELSON





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