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Area Forecast Discussion

314
FXUS62 KJAX 201822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE EARLY
THIS AFTN. WITH SOME INDICATION OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT NUDGING
FURTHER EAST AND NORTH...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED
POPS FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTN. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF STRONGER STORMS...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S
AREA WIDE...SO EXPECT MAXIMUMS OF MID 90S BY LATER THIS AFTN WITH
MAX HEAT INDEX READINGS OF AROUND 105. ANY STORM ACTIVITY LATE
THIS AFTN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL POKE INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
THE HEAT BUILDING FURTHER. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL
LIMIT AFTN/EVENING STORM ACTIVITY...BUT WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND
SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS BOTH THU/FRI AFTN. THE MAJOR CONCERN WILL REMAIN
THE HEAT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY IN THE MID 90S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 INLAND. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THIS WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 105 TO 112 RANGE. THUS...WILL ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY AFTN...WITH THE LONGEST
DURATION OF HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. WILL
LIKELY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO FALL ENOUGH AT NIGHT FOR
SOME RELIEF...WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN GENERAL LOOKING AT A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH SUNDAY.
BEYOND SUNDAY THE TROPICAL SYSTEM BECOMES A PLAYER AND THE BEST
THINKING RIGHT NOW IS FOR A POSITION IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY MID-WEEK WITH UNCERTAIN INTENSITY AS IT PASSES OVER-NEAR
THE GREATER ANTILLES. HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE GFS OPERATIONAL
SOLUTION HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
GEORGIA...HOWEVER...NOTE THE MODEL HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST AND IT IS
VERY POSSIBLE THAT TREND COULD CONTINUE WITH A PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM
TO OUR EAST. LOOKING AT THE 0600 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CERTAINLY
SUGGESTS THAT POSSIBILITY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL MEMBERS
OFFSHORE. BOTTOM LINE...PLEASE DO NOT JUST ON THE GFS SOLUTION
YET...LETS SEE IF IT SETTLES DOWN ON AN TRACK AND OTHER MODELS COME
INTO AGREEMENT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER
WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE GULF. LOOKING FOR SUBSIDENCE AND WESTERLY WINDS
MAKING IT A HOT DAY FOR THE REGION. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL SEE HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES FLIRTING WITH THE 110 RANGE.
DEFINITELY GOING TO BE A DAY TO REMAIN HYDRATED AND APPLY SUNSCREEN
FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE EXPANDS IN SIZE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ONLY
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT FOR
THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO POSSIBLE UPPER 90S. AGAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S WILL
PROVIDE VERY LITTLE RELIEF.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...RIGHT NOW GOING TO GO WITH ECMWF AS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE WITH A WEAKER TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING OVER CUBA AND MISSING
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC. THAT SYSTEM SHOULD FIND ITSELF
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AND LOOP CURRENT AREA. AT THAT POINT THIS
FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
AND INTENSIFYING. THAT SHOULD ACTUALLY PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A
MORE SUBSIDENT AREA AND MIGHT SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THAT SAID...A
STRONGER SYSTEM MAY JUST BE PICKED UP BY THE ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH
AND RECURVE OFFSHORE. IF THAT WERE THE CASE WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
INCREASING SURF AND SWELLS IN OUR COASTAL WATERS. THEN THERE IS
THERE CURRENT GFS SOLUTION TO CONSIDER. THE MAIN POINT TO TAKE AWAY
FROM THESE THREE OPTIONS IS PLEASE TO NOT LOCK IN ANY ONE SOLUTION
AT THIS POINT. THERE ARE JUST TO MANY VARIABLES FOR NEXT WEEKS
FORECAST RIGHT NOW AND EACH OF THEM IS JUST AS VALID!!!

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL SITES.
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT GNV FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE PORT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY INLAND...BUT WITH COVERAGE LIMITED WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST...THEN A SHIFT TO ONSHORE
FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING
NORTHEAST SURGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE DURING
NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75 100  76 101 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  78  93  79  94 /  20  10  10  20
JAX  76  98  76  99 /  20  20  20  30
SGJ  76  93  76  93 /  20  20  20  20
GNV  73  97  75  96 /  20  30  30  30
OCF  73  96  74  96 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SANDRIK/WALSH






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