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Area Forecast Discussion

592
FXUS62 KJAX 290808 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...WITH
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS BOUNDARY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
MORNING FOG...MAINLY INLAND. AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY WILL
LARGELY BE DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...
SO PRIMARILY CONFINED TO INLAND. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING WILL HELP
TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SO HAVE KEPT POPS LOW.
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING
OUT. ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE DIURNAL IN
NATURE...AIDED BY SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS SURPASSING 90 INLAND.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
FLORIDA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AS BROAD TROUGHING
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AGAIN. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SERN U.S. PROVIDING SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES THAN
SATURDAY WITH 20-40 PERCENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTN AND
EVENING...MAINLY TRIGGERED BY AFTN HEATING AND BOTH E AND W COAST SEA
BREEZES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SOME DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN BY MONDAY WHILE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST AREA SO POPS MAY DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE. STILL EXPECTING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS MONDAY
DESPITE WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA AND CONVECTION IN THE AFTN HOURS.
MODELS SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TUE AND WED WITH REGARD TO MOISTURE
LEVELS BUT OVERALL INDICATE THE STALLED FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASSING W TO E IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PROVE HELPFUL
TO SUSTAIN RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
MODEL TRENDS AS A COMBINATION OF ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY MAY FAVOR SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BY LATE
WED THROUGH WED NIGHT...THERE IS AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE THAT THE
COOL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
E AND SE OF THE REGION WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND A RETURN TO MORE
AVERAGE IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON THU.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
INLAND. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS 06Z
TAF PERIOD. A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE
CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THEN STALL. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  66  91  68 /  30  30  20  20
SSI  85  69  82  69 /  10  10   0  10
JAX  89  67  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
SGJ  86  69  84  70 /  20  20   0  10
GNV  89  66  91  67 /  30  30  30  20
OCF  91  66  90  67 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY



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