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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KJAX 300717

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
317 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

...Above Normal Temperatures and Increasing Rain Chances...

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

Gradually increasing rain chances with above normal temperatures
expected as waves of energy rotate around Tropical Depression
Bonnieas the the storms lingers near SC today then begins to
lift off to the NE Tuesday. Today passing generally light morning
showers will continue across SE Ga and the adjacent coastal waters
through sunrise....with a few showers possibly making it into NE
Florida under NE steering flow through mid-morning. Low
temperatures this morning will range in the 60s inland to near 70
along the river basin/coast under partly cloudy skies. .

This afternoon the trough axis will continue to rotate southward
across NE Florida and combined with sea breezes will fuel
additional showers and thunderstorm development across coastal
areas and the St. Johns River basin into the afternoon/evening
hours. High temperatures will warm into the lower 90s inland to
the mid/upper 80s coast. A few strong storms may develop and could
produce gusty winds and frequent lightning especially across the
interior when the sea breezes merge.

Tonight evening rainfall will fade with mostly dry conditions
expected by midnight. Upper level forcing associated with T.D.
Bonnie will weaken over the deep south as the circulation begins
to lift off to the NE thus less cloud cover is expected. High
resolution guidance indicated a low chance of patchy fog/inland
stratus development across the Suwannee River Valley early Tuesday
morning as low temperatures fall into the mid/upper 60s inland.

Tuesday the mean layer 1000-700 mb steering flow weakens as shifts
from the NW to more W which will also increase moisture across the
area. The weak steering flow will enable both sea breezes to push
inland as high temperatures again warm into the 90s inland. Rain
chances increase into the 30-40% range with a focus across the
interior. The Storm Prediction Center has the area highlighted in
a Marginal Risk of Severe Storms due to the potential for a few
strong/severe storms producing wet downbursts.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Surface ridge to the south
will provide a light westerly flow. Moisture will continue to
increase(Pwats 1.5"+) and allow for scattered afternoon/evening
storms mainly over the interior where seabreezes will merge. High
temperatures will be near 90 degrees with lows near 70.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday...Upper ridge over the se
will weaken this weekend as a trough digs over the eastern U.S.
A surface cold front will stall over central Georgia while a moist
unstable airmass remains across ne Fl/se Ga. Light winds will allow
seabreezes to move inland producing scattered daily convection.
Temperatures and pops will be near to slightly above normal this


.Aviation...Prevailing VFR conditions expected with temporary cig
and visibility restrictions in passing showers which could impact
SSI early this morning. Chances of showers increase at CRG and JAX
later this morning and included VCSH around 14Z. Included VCTS
this aftn at SGJ...GNV and VQQ as sea breeze activity develops.
Tonight (Mon night) SREF guidance indicated low chances of inland
fog across the Suwanee River Valley and low ceilings which could
impact GNV early Mon morning. Chances low at this time...thus did
no include in forecast at this time.


.Marine...Winds and seas gradually decreasing with westerly flow
this morning becoming south this afternoon. Headlines not expected
this upcoming week as the Bermuda ridge axis builds from south
Florida northward through the end of the week. Light southerly
flow is expected with seas 4 ft or less.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today due to lingering NE swells. Low
risk expected Tuesday.


AMG  92  66  92  70 /  30  20  30  10
SSI  87  72  87  71 /  30  20  20  10
JAX  91  69  91  72 /  30  20  30  20
SGJ  87  71  88  71 /  30  30  20  10
GNV  91  68  92  70 /  30  30  40  30
OCF  91  69  92  71 /  30  20  30  20


.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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