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Area Forecast Discussion

918
FXUS62 KJAX 271506
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1041 MB LOCATED NW OF THE AREA
WITH N TO NE FLOW INCREASING. SWLY FLOW IS PRODUCING A VIEL OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A 135-150 KT
JET ACROSS AL AND GA AND OFF THE E COAST NEAR SE VA.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE SE PARTS...A BIT SLOW TO RISE GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. BASED ON THIS AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT...MAINLY IN THE ERN PORTIONS WHERE THE NNE
FLOW IS STRONGER AND WHERE INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000
FT EXPECTED. BREEZY WINDS OVER NE FL COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE SE MARINE WATERS AND POSSIBLY IN FLAGLER AND
ST JOHNS COUNTY LATE AFTN. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
TONIGHT OVER ERN ZONES AS LIFT INCREASES AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF 2500-3000 FT EXPECTED TODAY
FOR JAX...CRG AND VQQ...WITH SSI AND GNV PREVAILING AT VFR FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL THE DAY. MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TERMINALS 00Z TO 06Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT SSI AND CRG.
THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL PERSIST AT SSI AND CRG TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOWARDS
SUNSET...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FT TOWARDS 06Z
AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AT SAUF1 ARE APPROACHING SCA CONDS AT THE 10 METER
LEVEL AND BASED ON OTHER OBS AND GUIDANCE WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES
EARLIER START TIME FOR SCA. SEAS ARE ALSO TWEAKED UP A BIT USING
NWPS WAVE GUIDANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR TODAY AS SURF INCREASES WITH A
STRONG N TO S LONGSHORE CURRENT DEVELOPING. A HIGH RISK LOOKS
PROBABLE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  39  50  42 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  52  44  50  47 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  55  45  56  49 /  10  30  50  40
SGJ  55  52  59  57 /  10  50  70  60
GNV  60  47  62  55 /  10  40  50  50
OCF  62  50  66  57 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ZIBURA/WALKER



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