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Area Forecast Discussion

902
FXUS62 KJAX 292004
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
404 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

THIS EVENING...OUTFLOWS INTERACTING WITH THE GULF SEABREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND WEST OF
OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301 ACROSS NE FL. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

LATER TONIGHT-THURSDAY...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE FL EAST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NE WHILE ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS S GA. SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A LARGE MID/UPPER
HIGH OVER THE MISS VALLEY AND LOW OFFSHORE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE TOWARDS THE INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM (THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT)...THE TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST GOMEX ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AND INTO THE
ATLC OFF THE SERN U.S. COAST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NE FL AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO
VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE
COAST WITH HEAT INDICES MAINLY 100-105 EACH DAY. AN EARLY ONSET TO
CONVECTION ALONG THE BIG BEND/I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS MAY ACTUALLY KEEP SOME MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS INTERIOR NE FL. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
DURING THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTN/EVE HOURS WITH SOME
MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL RAINFALL WILL HELP WITH THE
LONGER-TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS ACROSS MOST OF NE FL/SE GA.

.LONG TERM (SUN THROUGH WED)...TROF AXIS ACROSS THE REGION EITHER
WASHES OUT OR SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THIS ALLOWS FOR A MOIST
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW TO REMAIN ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AND
EXPECT TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH MAIN THREAT OF GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE HEAVIEST OF RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS INLD NE FL...I-75 CORRIDOR AND SUWANNEE RIVER BASIN WITH
DAILY LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FROM THE STRONG STORMS WITH
THE SLOW MOVEMENT...BUT OVERALL THE 7 DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY BENEFICIAL IN REDUCING LONG-TERM
RAINFALL DEFICITS. MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL VALUES AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE SOUTH AFFECTING AREAS MOSTLY WEST OF THE TAF SITES.
HAVE VCTS WITH TEMPO GROUP FOR TS AT GNV TIL 22Z. HAVE VCSH AT
REST OF TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WATERS WILL DRIFT NE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA. WINDS GENERALLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST BECOMING ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY THEEND
OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  94  75  93 /  40  50  30  50
SSI  74  88  78  88 /  20  30  30  40
JAX  74  92  75  90 /  30  50  30  60
SGJ  73  89  76  89 /  30  50  30  60
GNV  72  89  74  89 /  50  60  30  70
OCF  73  89  74  89 /  50  60  40  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PETERSON/HESS/WALKER



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