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Area Forecast Discussion

338
FXUS62 KJAX 261825
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
225 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM /thru Wed/...
Scattered showers have developed with the west coast
seabreeze this afternoon. A sw steering flow will result in
seabreezes mergering near the Highway 301 corridor 21z-00z. Warm
temperatures aloft will keep storms below severe levels with
showers and storms increasing in coverage with near seabreeze
collision. Showers will then dissipate this evening with loss of
heating. Overnight lows will be in the low/mid 70s inland and
upper 70s coast. On Wednesday the Bermuda high will strengthen and
bring stronger subsidence and drier mid level air. Rain chances
will lower back to isolated coverage. High temperatures Wednesday
will reach the mid to upper 90s inland with heat indices again
near 105.

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

During remainder of week and weekend...strong upper ridge
weakens/flattens over the area as upper trough moves eastward
from Midwest to Mid-Atlantic well north of our area. Continued
hot conditions through the week into next weekend with upper
ridge remaining over forecast area. Surface high pressure ridge
remains centered over ctrl FL thru Friday...maintaining s to sw
surface flow over the region. During the weekend...the ridge axis
moves little while a weak surface trough moves southward across
ctrl GA in response to Mid-Atlantic region shortwave trough aloft.
Little change in the pattern at the surface and aloft seen for
early next week. The pattern supports continued above normal
temperatures with highs in the mid to occasionally upper 90s
inland... lower 90s coast...and lows in the mid-upper 70s.
Afternoon heat index values will be in the 100-105 range each day.

Maintain low POPs Thursday afternoon for very widely scattered
afternoon t-storms...and have slow increase in afternoon POPs
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions through tonight. Afternoon and
evening storms will develop and increase from the Gulf coast and
move ne. Have VCTS for now but and may need to upgrade to TEMPOs
if storms approach TAF sites between 20z-01z.

&&

.MARINE...Surface ridge south of the waters will provide a southwest
flow the next few days with daily afternoon shifts to the southeast
ear the coast. Nocturnal wind surges offshore are expected each night
with winds increasing to around 15 knots. Seas will be 2 to 4 feet.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  96  74  97 /  10  20  10  10
SSI  77  93  79  94 /  20  10  10  10
JAX  75  96  75  96 /  30  20  20  20
SGJ  75  92  77  93 /  30  20  10  10
GNV  73  94  73  95 /  20  20  20  20
OCF  74  95  74  95 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Wolf/Zibura/Walker



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