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Area Forecast Discussion

092
FXUS62 KJAX 021920
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR VALDOSTA
GA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS SE GA TONIGHT REACHING THE GA
COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO WEAKEN THIS
EVENING BUT STILL LINGER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SE GA COAST OVERNIGHT
AS LOW CENTER APPROACHES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. LOW WILL SHIFT SE OFF
THE SE GA/NE FL COAST ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES AROUND THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER S FL. EXPECT BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ON
THURSDAY TO BE NEAR THE EAST COAST AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR 2.2 INCHES
THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE.

THU NIGHT...BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED OVER NE FL
AHEAD OF BEST LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHING. ANTICIPATE MOST
ACTIVITY DECREASING/DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC HIGH PRES WILL
BEING TO BUILD N OF THE AREA OVER THE MID ATLC DOWN INTO NRN GA
BEHIND SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST.

FRIDAY...A WEAK LOW PRES TROUGH REMAINS ORIENTED NW TO SE OVER OUR
SRN ZONES WITH WEAK LOW PRES OFF THE COAST N OF THE BAHAMAS
AREA...MOVING FURTHER E TO SE. SOMEWHAT LOWER PWATS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUGGESTS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY FOR THE
AFTN. HIGHS A BIT HIGHER IN LOWER 90S TO NEAR UPPER 80S COAST DUE TO
LATE ATLC SEA BREEZE.

SATURDAY...SFC TROUGHING OVER NRN FL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
A BIT SWD WHILE SFC HIGH PRES WEDGES DOWN THE COAST OF SE U.S.
COAST. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST A DIFFUSE FRONT PUSHES
GRADUALLY N TO S OVER THE AREA. A NELY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST
LOCATIONS BUT WINDS AT THIS POINT GENERALLY STAY BELOW 15 MPH. RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AT 50-60
PERCENT...MAINLY AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THE COAST
AND PROGRESS INLAND. THE TRANSITIONED FLOW TO NE WILL HELP LIMIT
HIGHS TO IN MID/UPPER 80S COAST TO NEAR 90 INLAND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... GENERALLY SAME CONDITIONS
FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND A
DIFFUSE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL FL AREA WILL
CONTINUE NE TO E FLOW AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
UNSETTLED WX PATTERN EXPECTED...FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR SEPTEMBER
STANDARDS. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LOOK PROBABLE. GFS/EURO MODELS
SUGGEST THESE CONDITIONS MAY LAST MON AND TUE THOUGH WITH WEAKER
HIGH PRES N OF AREA. WEAK SFC TROUGH/DIFFUSE FRONT WILL LAY NEAR OR
JUST S OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE WEAK LOW PRES MEANDERS SOME 200+
MILES OFF THE NE FL COAST. A PREVAILING NE TO E FLOW EXPECTED WITH
UNSETTLED WX PATTERN CONTINUING AND ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLE...WITH COASTAL AREAS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR RAIN NEAR 60
PERCENT FOR NOW. DURING THIS PERIOD...MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE
80S. WED...WEAK LOW PRES TROUGH LIFTS A BIT NWD WITH DEVELOPING WEAK
S TO SW FLOW ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THIS MAY TREND OUR WET
PATTERN DOWN FOR POPS TO 30-50 PERCENT RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MAX TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. DO HAVE TEMPO
TSRA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN TAFS UNTIL 22Z. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT/THURSDAY AS REMNANTS OF ERIKA
MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SE OF AREA FRIDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS WEEKEND
WHICH WILL INCREASE OUR ONSHORE WINDS. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  92  74  94 /  20  50  20  40
SSI  77  86  77  88 /  50  60  30  30
JAX  76  89  74  91 /  30  60  30  40
SGJ  76  87  75  88 /  30  60  30  40
GNV  74  90  73  90 /  20  60  30  50
OCF  75  91  73  91 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/SHASHY/WALSH



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