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Area Forecast Discussion

171
FXUS62 KJAX 170832
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
432 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEDGE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. CONSIDERABLE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING DUE
TO CLOUD COVER. A SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST WILL LEAD
TO A ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER ESPECIALLY N CNTL FL WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
DESTABILIZATION. SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS...WILL MOVE SE...AND
GRADUALLY FADE OUT IN THE EVENING AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF LATE NIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG

SATURDAY...AFTER AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LIFT...SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN SAT AM
WHICH WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AND
WARM FRONT TO SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE OF
ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET
GOING WILL AGAIN FADE OUT IN THE EVENING AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESIDUAL CONVECTION
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY...WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. MOIST SW FLOW...ALONG WITH
IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ENHANCED CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTN. WILL USE LIKELY
POPS FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A NIT LESSER COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE IMPULSE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND HEATING
IS LOST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WILL PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...DECAYING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS WORKS IN...PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA AND EXTREME NE FL. WILL DECREASE POPS TO LOW END CHANCE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE
GA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEARLY AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL
SLIGHTLY...LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR COMFORTABLY WARM
CONDITIONS. MILD AND MUGGY TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS COOLING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY AROUND 15Z-16Z AT GNV AND AROUND
18Z AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. HAVE VCTS AT MOST TERMINALS AFT 18Z-19Z
WITH TEMPO GROUPS POSSIBLE FOR LOWER VSBY FROM SHOWERS AND TS.

&&

.MARINE...WEDGE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AS WEAK LOW OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST MOVES NORTH. LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
DECREASING    AND NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND
VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT
TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS
AND LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  61  81  66 /  60  40  30  30
SSI  73  65  76  69 /  60  40  20  40
JAX  76  65  81  68 /  60  40  30  40
SGJ  76  66  79  69 /  60  30  30  40
GNV  80  66  84  67 /  60  30  50  30
OCF  83  67  84  68 /  60  30  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA



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