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Area Forecast Discussion

174
FXUS62 KJAX 210925
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
425 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TUE NIGHT-WED WITH ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE...

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
TODAY STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. INCREASED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN COASTAL AREAS WITH GRADIENT
TIGHTENED BETWEEN COASTAL ATLANTIC TROUGH AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTH. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE WILL HELP STRENGTHEN ISENTROPIC LIFT
NORTHWARD OF THE WARM FRONT AND CAUSE PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. PRIMARILY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE FL NEAREST TO THE BOUNDARY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. SE
GEORGIA REMAINING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL STAY CHILLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW/MID 70S AS THESE LOCATIONS SIT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

.TONIGHT....A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GOMEX SUNDAY
TRAVELING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO EDGE NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE
FL/GA BORDER. AS THIS HAPPENS PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF OF AN INCH TO
AN INCH EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS SET UP. CHANCES TO SEE
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTHWARD AS BOUNDARY PROGRESSES
AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE PASSES. TEMPERATURES IN SE GA WILL NOT
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH MINS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. NE FL WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S.

MON & MON NIGHT...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED TSTORMS EXPECTED
TO BE ONGOING MON MORNING ACROSS NE FL WITH LIGHTER RATES ACROSS
SE GA ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT. MODELS DIVERGE MON AFTN
INTO MON NIGHT WITH THE NAM12 ADVERTISING THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER N FL SUPPRESSING THE WARM FRONT FROM
LIFTING NORTHWARD UNTIL TUE WHILE BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ADVERTISE THE
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER SE GA MON AFTN INTO MON NIGHT.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF NE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING WHICH
THE NAM12 INITIALIZED WELL AND GIVEN THAT THE NAM12 TYPICALLY
HANDLES HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SCENARIOS WELL...LEANED A BIT MORE
TOWARD THE NAM12 SOLUTION MON-MON NIGHT WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP
MON MORNING ACROSS NE FL THEN PRECIP TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN
INTO MON EVENING WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY. GIVEN ELEVATED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT AND MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH END SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES OVER NE FL MON
EVENING TO AROUND 30% OVER SE GA FOR MAINLY JUST SHOWER ACTIVITY
INLAND WITH ISOLATED TSTORMS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN TO THE LOW/MID 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES NEAR OCALA
WITH MILD MIN TEMPS MON NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 50S SE GA TO LOWER
60S NE FL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD NEAR 0.25-1.00" ACROSS NE FL TO
0.10-0.25" OVER SE GA MON AND MON NIGHT.

TUE & TUE NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER SE GA TUE
WITH THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS SE GA TUE AFTN
(50-60%) AND DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. FARTHER
SOUTH FROM JAX-GNV SOUTHWARD RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO 20-30%
IN THE AFTN WITH CLOUD BREAKS ENABLING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY DUE TO INSULATION
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT WITH 850 MB WINDS OF
30-40 KTS COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TSTORMS TUE AFTN AND TUE
NIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. STRONG
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL GIVEN CAPE/SHEAR IN HAIL
GROWTH ZONE. SHEAR PROFILE ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ROTATION WITH HELICITY NEARING 250 M2/S2 TUE NIGHT.

WED & WED NIGHT...PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDING SLOWER WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WED AFTN OR WED
EVENING. CONTINUED WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WED MORNING WITH
EMBEDDED TSTORMS WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE MOVING INLAND
FROM THE GULF COAST REGION. HEAVY PRECIP WILL SHIFT ESE OF THE
AREA WED AFTN...BUT LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT
TRAILING THE FRONT AS 850 MB TROUGH DOES NOT PUSH DOWNSTREAM UNTIL
THU. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 IN ARE POSSIBLE TUE
NIGHT-WED NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN...

DRY AND COOLER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA
FROM THE GULF THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO THU IN THE LOW 60S AND MINS THU NIGHT IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S WITH FROST POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES. FRI-SUN HIGH TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE IN MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S WITH
LATE NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. NEXT FRONT APPEARED MOISTURE STARVED
WITH WEAK FORCING THUS ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES < 15% SAT-SUN AND
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AT VQQ AND GNV ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH IFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BAND OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SO
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN RAINFALL INCREASES IN
COVERAGE AND PREVAILING -RA PERSISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR AT SSI FOR THE PERIOD WITH
THE REMAINING SITES COMING UP TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS SUNSET.


&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT BETWEEN COASTAL ATLANTIC TROUGH AND SFC HIGH
TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE AND SCEC WINDSPEEDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE ZONES FROM THE
ATLAMAHA TO ST. AUGUSTINE. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BETWEEN 4 TO 6
FEET IN THESE ZONES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
WATERS FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT PASSES.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR
TODAY. RISK MAY BE DOWNGRADED TO LOW RISK IN THE ZONE FROM ST.
AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH AS NE FLOW BEGINS TO DECREASE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW RISK IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  50  63  55 /  60  70  60  40
SSI  59  54  63  57 /  50  80  80  40
JAX  64  57  70  59 /  50  90  80  40
SGJ  69  60  70  61 /  50  90  80  40
GNV  70  61  72  63 /  70  90  90  40
OCF  74  62  74  63 /  60  80  90  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET/






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