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Area Forecast Discussion

755
FXUS62 KJAX 151819
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ENTER SE GA THIS AFTN. PRECIP
CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST ACROSS SE GA/NE FL...WITH MOST OF THE TSTM
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO CENTRAL FL. WINDS ARE REMAINING
BELOW LAKE WIND CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL...THUS WILL
CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR NE FL...RETAINING IT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED TSTMS FOR NE FL THROUGH THE AFTN...ENDING
ACROSS LAND AREAS BY THIS EVENING. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THIS AFTN WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS ACROSS NE FL
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING...WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SE. BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL TO AROUND 40 FAR INLAND...WITH MID/UPPER 40S FOR THE JAX
METRO...AND AROUND 50 COAST.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM NEW
ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
WHERE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY BY AFTN. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. CHILLY AIR WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST
OF SE GA INTO NE FL...WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL
FL.

WED NIGHT/THU...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AXIS WILL DOMINATE NORTH OF THE
AREA WHILE COASTAL TROUGHING CONTINUES EAST OF THE S-CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA. THIS REGIME WILL BRING COOL AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE
COAST WITH PASSING COASTAL SHOWERS...AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST DUE TO WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 20
MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM S-N LATE
THU AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
INCREASES ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. MIN TEMPS
WED NIGHT WILL CONTINUE BELOW CLIMO VALUES OVER SE GA DUE TO A
COOL NE DRAINAGE FLOW WHERE VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S
WHILE FARTHER SSE MINS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S
DUE TO FETCH OF ONSHORE ENE FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED THU DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW AND COASTAL CLOUDS WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S COAST TO THE LOW/MID 70S TOWARD I-75.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASE OVER N FL AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND COASTAL TROUGHING AMPLIFIES ALONG THE FL
ATLANTIC COAST. CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF 60-70%
OVER NE FL AND THE COAST WHERE THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
ADVERTISES WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE
DEEPER CONVECTION MAY IMPACT. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER COMPARED TO
THE GFS IN CLEARING THE PRECIP FROM W-E FRI NIGHT AS IT SHOWS A
MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER NE FL. WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS/DGEX SOLUTIONS WHICH BOTH SHOW
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS FILTERING IN FROM THE WNW FRI NIGHT AS
PRECIP EXISTS OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MINS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND SAT MORNING TO LOW 60S COAST. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SAT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S COAST TO UPPER 70S
WELL INLAND UNDER A COOLER NNE FLOW.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE OF THE REGION
WITH ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH SCENARIO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK....BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK. THIS COASTAL TROUGH MAY CONVERGE WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH 20% RAIN CHANCES
MON/TUE. COOLER AND BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PASSING COASTAL
SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
AND MINS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/AREAS OF IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN AS PRECIP AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NW
WITH PRECIP ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH STRATOCUMULUS AND LOW END VFR ALONG THE COAST
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY IN THE 8-12 KT RANGE
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...INCREASING TO 12-17 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH BUOY 41009 APPROACHING SCA.
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TNGT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
WATERS. EXPECT SOLID SCA CONDITIONS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...WITH SCA DEVELOPING NEARSHORE LATE TNGT/EARLY WED
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY. MODERATE TO HIGH RISK WEDNESDAY
WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SURF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  39  65  44  71 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  47  61  54  66 /  10  10  20  30
JAX  45  64  53  70 /  10  10  30  40
SGJ  52  65  61  69 /  20  20  30  40
GNV  45  70  51  74 /  10  10  30  40
OCF  46  73  56  76 /  10  10  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER-
     MARION-PUTNAM.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/ENYEDI






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