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Area Forecast Discussion

372
FXUS62 KJAX 021914
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
314 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...

.NEAR TERM...THRU FRIDAY...

GREATER COVERAGE TODAY ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...
WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOLLOWING THE HRRR FAIRLY WELL. SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS...AND LATEST HRRR...POINT TO TWO LARGE PRECIP AREAS THRU THIS EVENING.
THE FIRST IS ONGOING OVER MUCH OF NE FL FROM I-10 SOUTHWARD...EXPECT THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD...AND WILL HAVE LIKELY/
CATEGORICAL POPS THIS AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  SECOND AREA DEVELOPING FROM FL
PANHANDLE UP TO SE AL...ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR SE GA FORECAST AREA...AND I-10 CORRIDOR OF
NE FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND MOVING
OFFSHORE. HAVE 2ND LIKELY POPS REGION HERE 20Z-00Z. THE SECOND AREA HAS NOT
BEEN AFFECTED BY FIRST PRECIP AREA FURTHER S...SO SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE
TO SUPPORT T-STORMS THRU 00Z. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING EXPECTED WITH STORMS JAX-OCF-SGF AREAS WITH
FIRST PRECIP AREA AND I-10 CORRIDOR INTO SRN GA WITH 2ND PRECIP
AREA.

ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
LOW TEMPS GENERALLY LWR 70S INLAND...MID 70S COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER.

MODEL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECM ALL POINT TO CONSIDERABLY LOWER PRECIP COVERAGE
FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT RISE IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING WELL
N OF FORECAST AREA. GOING WITH JUST 20 POPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT 30 POP
SOUTHERNMOST PART OF FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LWR-MID 90S
EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...

FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER DAYTIME
HIGHS SAT AS STACKED RIDGING DOMINATES OVER THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA. EVENING PRECIP FRI WILL FADE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS
LOWS COOL INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. SAT AFTN BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE GENERALLY S OF I-10 IN NE FL WHERE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ENERGY LIFTING NE FROM THE CENTRAL GOMEX. ADVERTISED AFTN
RAIN CHANCES OF NEAR 40-50% FROM GNV-PALATKA SOUTHWARD TO ONLY
20-30% ACROSS SE GA WHERE HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 105.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE
LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTN WITH 50-60% COVERAGE EXPECTED BY
SUN AFTERNOON AS BOTH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF COAST REGION AND A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES DIFFUSE
OVER SE GA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU...

MON-TUE...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH MEAN LAYER
TROUGH CARVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD UNDER MOIST
SW STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS REGIME FAVORS
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES OF NEAR 50% WITH ACTIVITY PRESSING
INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST REGION DURING THE MORNING THEN
BLOSSOMING ACROSS SE GA/EASTERN NE FL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALOFT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC FRONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AREA WHERE MORNING
CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PROBABLE...TO THE LOWER 90S TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST. MUGGY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

WED-THU...MODELS DIVERGE AS THE 00Z ECMWF ADVERTISED A TUTT
FORMING WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS WHILE THE 12Z GFS HOLDS DEEPENS THE LOW LEVEL AXIS DOWN
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST WITH
THE BAHAMAS TUTT NOT UNTIL LATE FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
BRING DRIER AND WARM CONDITIONS AS THE TUTT RETROGRADES ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA WED...THEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW THU. THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION WOULD CONTINUE ELEVATED
RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH
INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY...BUT
CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE MORE TAME GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. AT
THIS TIME OPTED TO TREND BOTH RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPS TOWARD CLIMO
VALUES WITH AROUND 40% RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S/MINS
IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE TEMPO FOR GUSTY TSRA CONDITIONS THRU 23Z WITH
VCTS CONTINUING THRU ABOUT 01Z. TWO PRIMARY TSRA THREATS TO TAF
SITES...FIRST CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM W OF KJAX TO E OF KGNV WHICH
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE AFTERNOON. 2ND AREA IS OVER
TX PANHANDLE WHICH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR AND
COULD AFFECT KSSI/KJAX/KVQQ/KCRG SITES 21Z-00Z. WILL MONITOR
TRENDS TO SEE IF TSRA THREAT TOWARD 00Z INCREASES FOR THESE SITES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LESSER TSRA COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED FRI...AND HAVE EXCLUDED MENTION IN LATEST TAFS FOR FRI
THRU 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SSW WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH EVENING AND
NOCTURNAL SURGES FROM THE SW OF 15-20 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS.
COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FT WILL PREVAIL NEARSHORE WITH UP TO 5-6 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE AT NIGHT WITH THE SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED DISPERSIONS EXPECTED AGAIN FRI AND SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  93  73  94 /  60  20  20  30
SSI  73  90  76  90 /  60  10  20  20
JAX  73  93  74  94 /  60  20  20  30
SGJ  73  91  75  90 /  40  20  20  30
GNV  71  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  40
OCF  72  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WOLF/WALSH



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