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Area Forecast Discussion

402
FXUS62 KJAX 301853
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SUNK
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SEEING A CONVERGENT BAND OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING WEST FROM THE LOW INTO SGJ. THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COULD STILL SEE A
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND CONVERGENT BAND. SO CONTINUING
WITH FLOOD WATCH...SINCE SOME OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS.

WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ANTICIPATE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS
INVERSION FORMS.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT...EXCEPT
FAR SOUTH...AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED OVER CENTRAL FL AREA
WHILE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDE W TO E OVER THE ERN GULF AND
PORTIONS OF FL. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RESIDES IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
SUPPORT A RISK OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF TSTMS OVER NE FL
ON WED AFTN-EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AROUND ALACHUA...MARION AND GILCHRIST
COUNTIES BUT MAINLY LESS THAN 1/3 INCH. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT. TENDED TO LEAN ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR WED BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDINESS...MAINLY MID 80S. LOWER 80S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

THU...AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES A SOMEWHAT DRIER DAY THOUGH
WE STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTN TSTM.
SHOWERS FIRST POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
MOIST NELY FLOW...THEN PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE DAY. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THU NIGHT...AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING AND SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

FRI...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MS VALLEY EWD TO THE
APPALACHIANS TO WRN FL PANHANDLE. WE SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE AFTN HOURS WITH TEMPS WARMING UP TO MID AND UPPER 80S.
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH HIGHER
COVERAGE POSSIBLE OVER SE GA CLOSER TO MAIN FORCING OF UPPER TROUGH.
FRONT PRESSES THROUGH GA AND NRN FL OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY-TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS FCST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SAT
WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE FALL. HAVE NUDGED
POPS DOWNWARD A BIT ON SAT AS MODELS HAVE PRECIP EXIT THE AREA
AFTER 18Z. INTRUSION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL LATE SAT
AND INTO SUN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA WIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60 INLAND...WITH 60S ALONG THE COAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS SUN AND MON MORNING OVER SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN HAS ALLOWED FOR MIXING...TO
LIFT CIG HEIGHTS AND PROVIDE BREAKS. EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE FOG AND STRATUS
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL BE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A LINGERING BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES WINDS WILL DECREASE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  87  67  87 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  69  85  69  85 /  10  20  20  20
SGJ  71  83  73  84 /  20  40  30  30
GNV  69  86  69  88 /  10  50  40  30
OCF  71  86  70  88 /  40  60  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER-MARION-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY





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