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Area Forecast Discussion

852
FXUS62 KJAX 150629
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
229 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014


.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER SE GA TODAY. AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BECOME NUMEROUS OVER
INTERIOR SE GA BY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A MOIST AXIS
WITH PWATS NEAR 2.1" LIES ACROSS S GA AND A LIGHT STEERING FLOW
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVER NE FL THE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE SCATTERED AND MAINLY INLAND
AS SEABREEZES COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. RAIN MAY LINGER TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
AREA WEAKENS AND A SHORT WAVE OVER THE PLAINS DIVES ESE TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 90 DEGREES
WITH MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG
INTO THE SE CONUS TUESDAY...NUDGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
FL/GA LINE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING. AS THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND TUESDAY AFTN INTERACTING WITH EXISTING
TSTMS...A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT..BUT THINK
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE RATHER
SLOW MOVING STORMS IN A RICH DEEP MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT RESIDUAL ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FURTHER INTO NORTHERN FL
PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NE FL DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR ENHANCED SHWRS
AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVENING. WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE COVERAGE
ACROSS SE GA WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO NE FL...USING LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR INTERIOR SE GA. WILL USE MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH LIKELY POPS FROM GNV SOUTHWARD.
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 70S COAST TO THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70
INLAND.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM/LONG TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AT LEAST INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF MOVING THE
BOUNDARY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN A NE FLOW REGIME DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
CLOSER TO THE COAST..PUSHING INLAND ACROSS NE FL. WILL USE MAINLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR INLAND SE GA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN THE NE FLOW...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S FOR
SE GA/NE FL...WITH UPPER 80S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL. WITH CLOUDS
AND SOME PRECIP...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH LOWER 70S COAST AND MID/UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY. PATCHY
MORNING FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS INLAND AT GNV AND VQQ 08Z-12Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT SW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SE AT SSI AND CRG/JAX/VQQ
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S TO SW AND LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NORTH. MODELS PUSH COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN PRODUCING
NE WINDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SEA HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARRIVE FROM EDOUARD. SEAS
WILL STAY ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY AS NE WINDS INCREASE. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSBILE BY LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  73  89  71 /  60  60  60  40
SSI  86  74  85  72 /  40  30  60  40
JAX  89  73  88  71 /  40  50  60  50
SGJ  87  73  87  73 /  30  30  60  50
GNV  90  71  88  70 /  50  50  60  60
OCF  91  72  89  71 /  30  30  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/






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