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Area Forecast Discussion

222
FXUS62 KJAX 080652
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
152 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...BREEZY TO WINDY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY-TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT W/SW FLOW CONTINUES AROUND 5 MPH AND
THIS IS MAKING IT TOUGH FOR LOCATIONS TO REACH NEAR FREEZING
DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES. A FEW BRIEF/SPOTTY AND WIND PROTECTED
LOCATIONS WILL SEE FREEZING TEMPS AND PATCHY FROST OTHERWISE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 30S INLAND AND NEAR
40 ALONG THE COAST.

TODAY...STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
LATER TODAY. SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. NORMALLY THESE FRONTS ARE MOISTURE STARVED AND PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE PCPN BUT DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE
DEEP TROUGH AXIS DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS (POPS AROUND 30%) IN THE FORECAST FOR SE GA BY
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BIGGER IMPACT TODAY WILL BE THE
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE
15-25 MPH RANGE WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH...JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT AND
WILL BE HELPED BY MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 60S SE GA AND
MIDDLE 60S NE FL...LIKELY THE LAST TIME IT WILL REACH 60+ DEGREES
UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK ON FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS NE FL AND COASTAL
SE GA WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT WILL CONTINUE AT BREEZY LEVELS AT 10-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH FALLING TEMPS INTO THE 30S OVER INLAND AREAS AND NEAR
40 ALONG THE COAST TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 25-30 DEG RANGE
OVER INLAND AREAS AND CLOSER TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE COAST AND
ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASINS. STILL NOT EXPECTING AN INLAND
FREEZE OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT ONLY AS COLD AS THE
MIDDLE 30S BY MORNING OVER INLAND AREAS...AND THE STRONG WINDS
WILL PREVENT ANY FROST FORMATION.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CONUS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SE
GA AS SOME STRATOCU CLOUDS SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
CLIP OUR AREA. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY LEND ENOUGH SUPPORT
TO ALSO PRODUCE A SPRINKLE OR TWO NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN
BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

INLAND FREEZES ARE EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WITH
WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S BOTH NIGHTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
OUR AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST
THIS OCCURS...WE COULD SEE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
PERHAPS A HARD FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY (WITH INLAND LOW TEMPS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING). ALTHOUGH
TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. WE WILL ALSO GO WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL
THEN TAKE US THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20G25-30 KNOTS AFTER 16Z AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE W/NW. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 6000 FEET
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 21-22Z THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HAVE LEFT VICINITY SHOWERS OUT OF THE TAF PACKAGE THIS FAR
OUT WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY 30% OR LESS BUT MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED IN LATER PACKAGES.

&&

.MARINE...
POOR BOATING CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE DECREASING LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT
ANOTHER SHOT AT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER TODAY AND IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WILL POST GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO DOUBLE DIGITS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

RIP CURRENTS: LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DEPARTING STORM WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE COAST DESPITE THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND EXPECT
BREAKERS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE THIS MORNING SLOWLY DECREASING
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS A MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH LOW TO
MODERATE RISK ON TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTAMAHA AND SATILLA RIVER BASINS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD THIS WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  34  48  29 /  30  30   0   0
SSI  59  39  51  33 /  30  30   0   0
JAX  65  38  55  31 /  20  30   0   0
SGJ  64  41  55  35 /  10  30   0   0
GNV  64  38  56  32 /  10  20   0   0
OCF  65  40  58  33 /  10  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/



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