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Area Forecast Discussion

936
FXUS62 KJAX 211939
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

...WIDESPREAD RAINS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY...

.NEAR TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE NAM IS DEPICTING A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP POOL MOISTURE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY RESULT
IN A FEW SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. WITH AN
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...SHOULD
HAVE READINGS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT THAN THIS
MORNING. EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON
SATURDAY...WITH NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY.

.SHORT TERM...
SAT NIGHT...A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NWD
FROM CENTRAL FL INTO NORTHERN FL BY SUN MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WILL
JUST N OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODERATE TO STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL
SPREAD NWD QUICKLY SATURDAY WITH A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS POSSIBLE
INLAND NE FL AREAS WHERE LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST AND ALSO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. WIDESPREAD PRECIP
CONTINUES SUNDAY WHILE SLOWLY FOCUSING FURTHER N AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING LIFTS QUICKLY NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PLACED WELL TO OUR W AND NW ON SUNDAY SO WILL BE
TRANSITION TO THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT SURGES
NWD.  PRECIP COVERAGE/CHANCES DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES WELL TO THE NORTH. ONLY A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM.

AS FAR AS STORM POTENTIAL EARLY SUN THROUGH SUN AFTN...VEERING WIND
PROFILE AND JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT THE LFC AROUND
3000-3500FT PER NAM SOUNDING AT 15Z SO LITTLE CAPE IS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS UNTIL THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE
IN PLACE...AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2.5
INCHES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 50S/60S
FOR MOST AREAS. MONDAY...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM THE SFC TO
AT LEAST 20000 FT EXPECTED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...WITH A
BREEZY SWLY FLOW EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
SE GA MONDAY EVENING...SLOWLY MOVING INTO NE FL TUESDAY...EXITING
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN
W OF THE SFC FRONT AND ALLOW CLASSIC OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NMRS RAIN SHOWERS TO AFFECT MAINLY THE E AND
SE PORTIONS OF AREA. DRIER CONDITIONS AND MUCH COOLER WX WILL
PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY AS WELL AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND TUESDAY
AND CERTAINLY BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WED MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S IN
A MOST LOCATIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS 18Z
TAF PERIOD. AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE...PROVIDING MVFR CIGS TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND
A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS AREA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS.

ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS MAY PERSIST INTO MID WEEK...AS TROUGHING
LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

RIP CURRENT...MODERATE RISK TODAY BECOMING ENHANCED TO HIGH RISK ON
SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  67  59  74 /   0  20  90  90
SSI  52  65  63  72 /  10  20  90  90
JAX  51  70  64  77 /  10  20  90  90
SGJ  59  73  67  77 /  20  20  80  80
GNV  50  73  64  78 /  10  30  80  70
OCF  54  75  66  81 /  10  40  80  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY





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