National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

373
FXUS62 KJAX 210641
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

TODAY...AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DIURNALLY INDUCED
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS. WITH
ONSHORE FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST NEAR THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND WARMEST FAR INLAND. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL NEAR THE COAST...WITH NORMAL READINGS INLAND.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE WARMER OUTER
WATERS OVERNIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...A
WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WAVE COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED STORM
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDING FOR THE COOLEST READINGS NEAR
THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA...AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND
SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US PRECIP POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH WITH THE BUILDING HIGH...THEREFORE
KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY. WITH A NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS
PERIOD...EXPECT TEMPERATURE READINGS TO BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE AT GNV...
VQQ... AND JAX WHERE RAINFALL FELL YSTY. AFTER SUNRISE PREVAILING
ESE WINDS 15 KTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTN/EVENING TSRA. EXPECT SHRA TO START DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST
COAST BY MID-MORNING...THEN TRANSLATING INLAND IN THE AFTN WITH
TSTORM ACTIVITY ERUPTING. ADVERTISED VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN
17-19Z. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH
ACTIVITY LINGERING INLAND TOWARD GNV WHERE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SSE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES NEAR 15 KTS
THRU WED NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. THU WINDS
VEER SW IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH FROPA ON TAP
THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD NNE OF THE REGION FRI...WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS THE HIGH WEDGES DOWN
OVER SE GA. WINDS WILL NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. NEARSHORE WATERS
WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TODAY AND
AGAIN ON WED DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING EAST
SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  64  87  66 /  30  30  50  40
SSI  82  70  81  70 /  40  20  20  20
JAX  84  66  85  67 /  50  30  50  30
SGJ  81  69  82  68 /  30  20  30  30
GNV  87  66  88  65 /  50  40  50  40
OCF  87  67  87  66 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/ENYEDI