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Area Forecast Discussion

250
FXUS62 KJAX 011738
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
138 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANTICIPATING INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD...
AND AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES WELL INLAND...MEETING WITH
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IN OUR WRN FL COUNTIES TOWARD 00Z.
ANTICIPATE COVERAGE REACHING A MAXIMUM ALONG I-75 CORRIDOR
AROUND 23Z...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER. ACTIVITY
COULD LINGER IN THE 02-04Z PERIOD IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING RETROGRADES TO THE WEST TUESDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH DROPPING TO THE SE CONUS. A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WITH CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS SE GA CLOSER TO THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND
MID LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE. WILL USE MID/HIGH END
CHANCE POPS EACH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...WITH LITTLE/NO
PRECIP LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL PREVAIL...WITH NEAR NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE ON WEAK TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SE
LATE WEEK. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS FEATURE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ABOVE NORMAL
POPS LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE FL WITH HIGH END CHANCE
POPS. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS ON THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SO WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST...WITH A DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE PATTERN RETURNING YIELDING NEAR NORMAL POPS.
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
INDICATED TEMPO FOR TSRA 21-00Z KGNV TAF...VCTS ELSEWHERE. EXCEPT
AROUND SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA WHERE LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SE WINDS UNDER 15 KT WILL PREVAIL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH
SOME INCREASE LATE WEEK AS A WEAK WAVE APPROACHES THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SIDESHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  95  74  94 /  50  50  50  30
SSI  77  87  76  88 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  74  92  74  92 /  10  30  20  20
SGJ  75  88  74  89 /  10  20  10  20
GNV  72  91  71  92 /  50  40  40  30
OCF  72  92  72  92 /  50  50  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WOLF/GUILLET






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