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Area Forecast Discussion

056
FXUS62 KJAX 190740
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
340 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL FEATURES AFFECTING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE INCREASINGLY ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL
PROVIDE FOR INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH A LITTLE
HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE BEACHES. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF COAST TO OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS LEADING TO INCREASED AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THIS PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ADJACENT TO CAPE CANAVERAL ON SAT MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION JUST EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS BY MIDDAY SUN. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY SAT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WHILE
FILLING AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MIGRATING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES ON SUN/MON. LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE CONVERGENCE IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES
ON SAT...WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE USED. ONSHORE WINDS WILL SPREAD
ACTIVITY INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH LIKELY POPS USED FROM
US HIGHWAY 301 AND POINTS EASTWARD...WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE
INSERTED ELSEWHERE. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL CLOSED TROUGH (-8/-9 CELSIUS AT 500 MILLIBARS) WILL KEEP
THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. WE EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SAT/SAT NIGHT OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR...0.25-0.50 AMOUNTS INLAND...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS OR TRAINING BANDS
ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS...RAINFALL AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP
HIGHS SAT IN THE LOW/MID 80S REGION-WIDE. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST SAT NIGHT...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING THE THREAT
FOR COASTAL SHOWERS IN PLACE THROUGH SUN MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID
70S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH WILL NUDGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHEAST FL ON SUNDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR POINTS SOUTH AND EAST OF A
JACKSONVILLE/GAINESVILLE LINE. A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER
INTO SOUTHEAST GA ON SUN...WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S
BENEATH PLENTY OF INSOLATION. HIGHS IN NORTHEAST FL WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST TO THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUN NIGHT AS THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE
DRIVES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THIS WILL KEEP INLAND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S...RANGING TO THE MID
70S AT THE COAST.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND THE WESTERN
SUWANNEE VALLEY BY MON AFTERNOON...BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BOOST HIGHS TO NEAR 90 INLAND...AND THE
MID/UPPER 80S AT THE COAST. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PRESS INTO OUR REGION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUES MORNING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. LOWS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL TO THE MID 60S FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA...WITH MID 70S PERSISTING IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS STRONG RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING BY LATE WEEK AS SURFACE PRESSURES POTENTIALLY LOWER
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. TEMPERATURES INLAND ON TUES WILL REACH
THE UPPER 80S...WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK
AS ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENS AND MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. HIGHS AT THE
COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW/MID
60S FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA DUE TO THE DRIER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...WITH MID/UPPER 60S FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FL. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO HIGH CLOUDINESS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL LEAD
TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE MOST SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
STORMS...A FEW COULD DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHT AS A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH...ONSHORE FLOW
WILL INCREASE TODAY...INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OFF THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST LATE
SATURDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TOWARD MID WEEK
WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND
ELEVATED SEAS.

.RIP CURRENTS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENHANCE RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL
TODAY AND SATURDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  68  83  66 /  40  40  50  40
SSI  81  71  81  72 /  60  60  70  60
JAX  83  70  83  69 /  60  50  60  60
SGJ  82  70  82  71 /  60  50  70  60
GNV  84  66  85  67 /  40  40  50  50
OCF  83  67  85  68 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/NELSON








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