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Area Forecast Discussion

950
FXUS62 KJAX 241847
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
245 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Wednesday...

This afternoon...Low chances of afternoon and early evening
showers will continue across portions of NE Florida generally west
of the St. Johns River basin as the east coast sea breeze pushes
inland overridden by some forcing under a passing upper level
short wave trough from the WNW. Rain chances will shift westward
toward Apalachee into the early evening. Breezy ESE winds will
increase to 10-15 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph along the Atlantic
coast trailing the east coast sea breeze this afternoon with
lighter winds 5-10 mph well inland where temperatures were on
track to rise into the upper 80s along the I-75 corridor. Dew pts
mixed down into the mid/upper 50s inland which will again support
slightly cooler than normal nighttime low temps tonight.

Tonight...Skies expected to become mostly clear overnight from
the east as low level ridge builds offshore of the Carolinas and
over the western Atlantic while the ridge axis shifts across the
local forecast area. Late night patchy fog is possible given
influx of low level moisture from the Atlantic today and mid level
subsidence but confidence not high enough to include in the
forecast at this time. A warming trend in low temps which will
range from near 60 inland to the mid/upper 60s along the St. Johns
River basin and Atlantic coast under very light SSE flow.

Wed...Upper ridge strengthens over the NE Gulf as the surface
ridge axis extends across the local area from a center across the
western Atlantic. Increased subsidence will bring lower rain
chances Wed compared to today with only some afternoon cumulus
expected. High temps will warm to near 90 well inland to the lower
80s along the coast.

.LONG TERM...

Wed night through Friday...Mainly warm and dry conditions will
continue through the period as high pressure ridge axis will
continue from the Carolinas through Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. This will keep a East-Northeast steering flow across the
NE FL/SE GA region with a mainly dry airmass aloft. A few showers or
storms may begin to develop over the NE FL coastal waters by Friday
and move onshore with the Sea Breeze south of a line from St.
Augustine to Ocala during the afternoon hours while the remainder of
the region will remain dry. Temps will be near climo values with
lows in the 60s and highs ranging from the lower to middle 80s along
the coast in the onshore flow and well into the upper 80s/near 90
over inland areas.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Long-range models in slightly better
agreement with stacked low pressure system tracking from north of
the Bahamas Friday Night towards the South Carolina coast through
the weekend and just inland early next week. The eventual track of
this system will determine local impacts across the NE FL/SE GA
region. Overall the increase in any onshore flow will continue an
elevated risk of rip currents and increase in shower/storm activity
over the coastal waters and along the coastal areas...especially
across coastal SE GA and this is reflected in highest rain chances
along the coast this weekend with only isolated chances further
inland. As this stacked system opens up into open trough over the
southeastern U.S. and Florida peninsula early next week expect a
general overall increase in diurnal shower/storm activity with rain
chances pushing into the 40-60% range during the afternoon hours.
Will be monitoring track of surface low pressure system over the
weekend as models try to get in better agreement over the next
several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR conditions. Low chance of shallow ground
fog early Wed morning which could bring brief MVFR conditions
especially at GNV and VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will persist ENE of the local waters
through Thursday maintaining onshore flow ESE flow. A wave of low
pressure is expected to develop Friday into Saturday east of the
Florida peninsula and at this time there is some better agreement
amongst the extended models in tracking the system WNW toward the
the SE Atlantic seaboard this weekend into early next week.
Building swells are expected late this week with potential for
exercise caution seas over the offshore waters.

RIP CURRENTS: A moderate risk of rip currents today. An elevated rip
current risk is expected through the end of the week due to persistent
onshore flow and increasing easterly swells.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated dispersion values are expected this afternoon and again
wednesday afternoon but minimum relative humidities will remain
above critical levels in the 30 to 40 percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  62  89  64 /  10   0  10   0
SSI  83  68  84  70 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  87  63  87  65 /  10   0  10   0
SGJ  83  67  83  69 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  88  62  88  62 /  20  10  10   0
OCF  89  62  89  63 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Enyedi/Hess/Combs



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