« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » JAX Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

547
FXUS62 KJAX 200828
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
428 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.CURRENTLY...
A CUTOFF CYCLONE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN ITS WAKE. A LOW STRATUS DECK IS
COVERING ALL OF GEORGIA AND ALL OF FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE. A FEW PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY BE FALLING BENEATH THIS
STRATUS DECK...BUT MEASURABLE RAINS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM OUR
COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO NEAR 60 IN COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SLOWLY RISE AS THE STACKED CYCLONE SLOWLY
DEPARTS OUR REGION...BUT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW 800 MILLIBARS (6500 FEET)
THAT WILL KEEP STRATUS SOCKED IN FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...WHILE GRADUALLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IN INTERIOR COUNTIES. A FEW PATCHES OF
DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BRISK
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST FL...AND FOR
MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA. LATE AFTERNOON CLEARING WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO
THE MID 70S IN NORTH CENTRAL FL...AND LOW 70S IN THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT IN THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INLAND. LOWS IN
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. LOWS IN
NORTHEAST FL WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S.

MON & MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NNW WITH A GRADUAL RELAXATION IN BREEZY NORTH FLOW ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 70S INLAND TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE ATLANTIC DUE TO
COOLER NNE FLOW. MON NIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50
INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 50S COAST...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS
SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER OVER THE AREA FROM THE
WSW.

TUE & TUE NIGHT...A SHEARED OUT FRONT WILL APPROACH TUE AFTN WITH
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A
LOW 20% CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS FOR SE GA. PRECIP POTENTIAL
WILL WANE WITH SUNSET TUE EVENING AND DROP RAIN CHANCES BELOW 10%
AS THE FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO WASH-OUT OVER N FL. HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE LOW/MID 80S INLAND UNDER WARM WESTERLY WINDS WITH MINS IN
THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S TUE NIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MOSTLY DRY AND NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS EXPECTED. WED A DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL LINGER OVER N-CENTRAL FL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BRIDGES THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...WITH LOCAL ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING. THU INDICATED A LOW 15-20% OF COASTAL SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING THEN 20% INLAND TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTN WITH A COASTAL TROUGH SCENARIO POSSIBLE AS THE HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE NC/SC COAST AND SHIFTS LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE
INLAND. FRI THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER N-CENTRAL FL
WITH DRY WX EXPECTED...THEN SAT/SUN ADVERTISED A LOW 15-20% OF
MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTORMS AS A WEAKENING SURFACE
FRONT AND SHEARED OUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AND INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZES. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
80S INLAND BY THE WEEKEND INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST WITH MIN TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS BETWEEN 700-1000 KFT IMPACTED THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE SURFACE LOW ADVANCES EAST
OFFSHORE OF THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. LOW MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT BLANKET OF WRAP-AROUND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE NOSING DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
STRONG NNE SURFACE WINDS WILL NEAR SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT SSI AND CRG BY LATE
MORNING...WITH SPEEDS SUSTAINED NEAR 15 KTS AND GUSTS 20-25 KTS AT
JAX...VQQ..AND GNV. TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO LIFT
AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...AND WILL SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND IN
CIGS AFTER 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL EXPAND AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD...KEEPING A TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9 FEET. SEAS
OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FEET TODAY...PEAKING AT 9-12 FEET
TONIGHT. OUR GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON MONDAY...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING TO CAUTION CRITERIA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS NEAR SHORE...AND REMAINING IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT...AND OFFSHORE
WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK TODAY DUE TO A STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENT
AND LONG-PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS...WITH BREAKERS BUILDING TO 4-6
FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COAST. HIGH RISK WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH AN ELEVATED RISK LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AS
EASTERLY SWELLS PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  47  77  51 /  10   0   0  10
SSI  65  54  68  56 /  20  10  10   0
JAX  69  53  75  53 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  69  59  70  56 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  76  54  79  54 /  10  10  10   0
OCF  76  55  80  56 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

NELSON/ENYEDI







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.