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Area Forecast Discussion

179
FXUS62 KJAX 291922
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN
PERSISTS...

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS ATLANTIC RIDGING (1025
MILLIBARS) EXTENDING ITS AXIS WESTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD INTO OUR OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS...GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING BLANKETS THE U.S. EASTERN
SEABOARD. VERY DRY AIR LAYER ABOVE 850 MILLIBARS (5000 FEET) IS
DISSOLVING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY EAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS
FALLING TO NEAR 60 INLAND ARE MAKING FOR A PLEASANT LATE MAY
AFTERNOON.

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AS THE WEAK EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES THE COAST LATER THIS
EVENING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM EAST TO
WEST...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO REACH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EARLY
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY BRIEF
AND LIGHT IN INTENSITY...WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PUSH INLAND PAST THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE...WITH HIGH-END SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THE WAVE AXIS MOVES INLAND AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. OTHERWISE...FAIR SKIES THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW LOWS INLAND TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S...WITH ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND EXTENDING TO U.S. HIGHWAY
301 EARLY IN THE MORNING WILL PROGRESS INLAND AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON SATURDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS MOISTURE LEVELS DEEPEN AND
CONDITIONS ALOFT DESTABILIZE. COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301...AS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ADVECTS TOWARDS TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THIS
PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN...WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED INLAND AND
LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL ERODE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
LOCALLY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST...WITH EVENING CONVECTION OVER
THE I-75 CORRIDOR PROGRESSING WESTWARD AWAY FROM OUR REGION ON
SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED COASTAL
SHOWERS...PERHAPS CONTAINING A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE ONSHORE DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY. A VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY KEEP LOWS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY ONSHORE FLOW WILL FACILITATE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
AS IT MOVES INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY INITIATING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PROGRESSES. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL US AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY WITH INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES NEAR 1-75 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST IN THE
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ITS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST LATE ON
WEDNESDAY AS TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TUES AND WEDS WILL ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND AREAS
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO EACH EVENING.
TEMPS TUES AND WEDS WILL REACH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE LOW 80S.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PEAKING DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY...AS MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRESS
CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH
PRESSING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. A FEW BRIEF AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT SGJ TOWARDS 00Z...AND THEN AT THE
DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND SSI TOWARDS 09Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
BETWEEN 2000-3000 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE TERMINALS AFTER
09Z. WE WILL MAINTAIN VCSH IN THESE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY DUE
TO EXPECTED BRIEF DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AT SSI...CRG...AND SGJ
ON SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT
THE GNV TERMINAL AFTER 17Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL THEN
TURN TO AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAK
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...WHICH SHOULD ALSO CREATE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY
IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SEAS FALLING BACK TO THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: A LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  87  69  89 /   0  40  10  30
SSI  73  82  72  83 /  50  50  30  20
JAX  68  85  70  87 /  40  50  20  20
SGJ  73  83  72  84 /  50  50  30  20
GNV  66  89  67  91 /   0  40  30  40
OCF  68  89  69  91 /   0  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET/WALSH



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