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Area Forecast Discussion

563
FXUS62 KJAX 060158
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT AND LEADING LINE OF SHOWERS STEADILY PUSHING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS WERE GENERALLY IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH WITH THIS FEATURE WITH THE MAX GUST OF 39 MPH
REPORTED AT THE JAX INTL AIRPORT AT 744 PM EST. THE LINE OF
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL WASH OUT BY LATE THIS EVENING
WITH A LULL IN PCPN CHANCES UNTIL MORNING AS COLD/MOIST N/NE FLOW
SETS UP ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO THE 40S ACROSS SE GA AND INTO THE 50S ACROSS NE FL. A
WEAK OVERRUNNING W/SW FLOW OVERTOP OF COLD/MOIST N/NE FLOW ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO LOW END RAIN CHANCES OF 30-50% WITH ONLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN STORY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS STEADY IN THE 40S ACRS SE GA AND 50S ACRS NE
FL. N/NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES INCLUDING THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AND WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...N/NE
WINDS WILL BE 10-15G20-25 MPH FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AROUND 3000 FT ARE EXPECTED AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AROUND 04Z...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR THEREAFTER. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT VFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED TO
IMPACT SSI TOWARDS 12Z...AND THEN THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT SSI TOWARDS 12Z...WITH CIGS
AT THE NORTHEAST FL TERMINALS LOWERING TO IFR TOWARDS 15Z. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS. WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KTS BELOW 2000 FT
TOWARDS 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS ON TRACK AS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND RAPID INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS TO
BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FEET BY LATE TOMORROW.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK AT THE MOMENT WILL BECOME MODERATE AS N/NE
WINDS INCREASING SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOOD WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN THE SATILLA AND ALTAMAHA
RIVER BASINS AND FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH OF 84 DEGREES SET AT ST SIMONS ISLAND TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  49  32  66 /  20  10  10   0
SSI  48  49  37  61 /  60  40  10   0
JAX  51  52  37  64 /  40  40  20   0
SGJ  55  56  44  62 /  10  50  30   0
GNV  55  56  39  70 /  20  30  10   0
OCF  58  59  44  71 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH



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