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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KJAX 310646

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
246 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

...TD #9 to impact the local area Thursday through early

.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...Weak surface low pressure
currently off the ne Fl coast with trailing trough over ne Fl
will drift north this morning. This will shift the easterly flow
to a sw flow for today and tonight. Showers will become likely
over land with heating again today along with isolated
thunderstorms. TD 9 now over the southern Gulf of Mexico is
expected to strengthen into a tropical storm today and begin to
move north later today and then north northeast by tonight.

Thursday through Friday...An upper level trough will push across
the Great Lakes into the ne states which will allow the tropical
cyclone to accelerate across ne Fl and se Ga Thursday and
Thursday night...reaching the Ga coast early Friday morning.
Squalls with very heavy rainfall will affect the area Thursday
through Thursday night. Rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches will be
possible with locally higher amounts through Friday. There will
also be the possibility of tornadoes Thursday and Thursday night
as the shear and helicity increase. Conditions will improve on
Friday as the storm moves up the east coast though showers and
thunderstorms will still be likely as a trailing trough lingers
over the area.

.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Tuesday/...TD 9 will be well
northeast of the region Friday night. A tail of showers may linger
behind the system across a portion of the region Friday night. The
trailing trough axis will linger across the Georgia/Florida line
Saturday with high moisture continuing south of this boundary.
Isolated to widely scattered showers are antipated north of this
boundary across SE GA with scattered showers near the I-10
corridor and elevated chances of rain over our southern tier
across North Central Florida. Drier mid level air and
northeasterly flow will develop over the weekend and continue
through early next week. By early Sunday...the trough axis is
shunted farther south over central Florida as a backdoor cool
front pattern with NELY flow develops. This pattern should bring
occasional isolated to widely scattered coastal showers inland
under the breezy NE flow Sun-Tue as a cooler flow prevails aloft
due to a 500 mb ridge center building eastward over MS/AL/TN and
then into the mid Atlantic during the beginning of the workweek.

Highs Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s. Then modify, Sunday
through Tuesday with maximums in the low to mid 80s along the
coast, and the upper 80s to lower 90s inland. Overnight lows are
forecast to be in the mid 60s to near 70 inland and the low to mid
70s along the coast.


.AVIATION...MVFR CIGs increasing across ne FL...with local
IFR CIGs. Model guidance suggests this trend continues overnight
and through the morning... with primarily MVFR CIGs in the

Weak surface low is moving northward along the ne FL/se GA
coast...causing easterly winds to shift to southerly or
southwesterly this morning.


.MARINE...A trough axis will pivot to the north by noon today,
with a trough axis residing from the outer banks of North
Carolina to the mouth of the Altamaha into the Big Bend region of
Floria. As a result winds will be southwesterly over the SE GA and
NE Florida coastal waters through tonight which will be reprieve
from the easterly flow we had earlier. Winds will become more
southerly direction on Thursday as TD #9 moves into the northeast
Gulf of Mexico and as the aforementioned downstream trof axis will
reside well offshore of Virginia through the panhandle of Florida.
TD #9 is expected to track across toward the northern FL Big Bend
region across N FL and the adjacent coastal waters Thu and Thu
night...then exiting northeast into the adjacent Atlantic waters
of Georgia Friday morning. Tropical storm force winds will be
possible during this time period in squalls. A trailing front will
push south of the area late Fri or Sat with high pressure building
NE of the region this weekend.

Rip currents: Moderate risk today and tonight with offshore swly
flow and again Wed with southerly flow. Breakers in the 3-4 ft
range possible along the NE FL and SE GA coasts through Thursday.


AMG  89  74  86  74 /  60  40  70  60
SSI  88  74  84  76 /  80  80  80  80
JAX  89  75  84  76 /  70  60  90  60
SGJ  86  74  84  76 /  70  60  90  60
GNV  84  74  82  75 /  70  50  90  60
OCF  85  75  82  75 /  70  60  90  70


.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for Alachua-Columbia-Gilchrist-Hamilton-

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Waters
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM.




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