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Area Forecast Discussion

842
FXUS62 KJAX 291342
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...CONTINUED WARMTH BUT DRIER TODAY...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MARION COUNTY THIS
MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NW. DOUGLAS GA
REPORTED A DEW PT OF 63 WITH JAX AT 70. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE 12Z JAX RAOB SHOWED STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION AT
600 MB AND ABOVE...WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT NOT QUITE AT HOT AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH TEMPS ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO
LOW 90/NEAR 90 COAST UNDER A WARM WLY FLOW. AS TEMPS WARM FURTHER
THROUGH THE DAY...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN. UPDATED WITH MIXING
TOOLS AND EXTRACTED DEW PTS IN THE MID 50S OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND
SE GA TO LOW 60S AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR OVER NE
FL...WITH LOW 70S STILL GENERALLY FROM GNV-SGJ SOUTHWARD. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIP N OF GNV-SGJ. THE HRRR
INITIALIZED WELL WITH PRECIP THIS MORNING WEST OF CEDAR KEY...AND
THEN ADVERTISES THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN GENERALLY FROM GNV
TO SGJ SOUTHWARD AS WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BEST MOISTURE FOCUS
ACROSS THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF JAX. WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS...WHICH WILL KEEP METRO JAX
NORTHWARD MOSTLY DRY TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPDATED THE TAFS
TO REMOVE MORNING VCSH WITH CONVECTION MOST LIKELY SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTN NEAR GNV. DRY AIR EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND REFINED VCTS AT GNV TO VCSH. COULD SEE
SOME WNW GUSTS MIDDAY BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS WITH RECENT HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED NEAR AND OFFSHORE LEGS ONCE AGAIN WITH
PREVAILING NW WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS MORNING TRAILING THE FRONT
DECREASING TO SW THIS AFTN 10 KT OR LESS. COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FT. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS OVER THE AREA AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  94  70 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  92  75  88  76 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  93  70  91  73 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  76 /  20  20  10  10
GNV  94  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
OCF  94  70  94  71 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER






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