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Area Forecast Discussion

878
FXUS62 KJAX 291906
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
306 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN THROUGH WED...

THIS AFTERNOON & TONIGHT...GORGEOUS CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DOWN THE SE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD WITH
A COOL ENE FLOW VEERING TO THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK MON. THE NAM12
WAS DOING THE BEST REPRESENTING A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE OF
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST WITH A PINCHED GRADIENT CREATING BREEZY
WINDS THIS AFTN ALONG THE LOCAL COASTLINE BUT THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN WITH DECREASING MAGNITUDES EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING AS
THE RIDGE SETTLES FARTHER SOUTHWARD. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
LESS SOME PASSING CLOUDS ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN THE
GRADUAL INFILTRATION OF SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS FROM THE WEST OVER THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING
SURFACE COLD FRONT. AFTER A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
60S...CHILLY BELOW NORMAL MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ONE MORE NIGHT
INLAND WITH LOW IN THE 40S TO LOW/MID 50S COAST. NORMALLY COOLER
LOCALES ACROSS NE FL MAY HAVE MINS IN THE UPPER 30S WHERE SOME
PATCHY FROST MAY FORM.

MON & MON NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER NE FL WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR CLIMO VALUES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
ENERGY WHICH COULD POP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GIVEN SUCH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS IN THE -15
TO -17 DEG RANGE WITH SOME HAIL POTENTIAL IN RESULTANT TSTORMS.
GIVEN WEAKENING DYNAMICAL SUPPORT AND DECREASING MOISTURE FIELD AS
THE FRONT SAGS INTO OUR REGION ONLY ADVERTISED MAX RAIN CHANCES OF
30-40% ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN DECREASING SOUTHWARD TO <
205 OVER NE FL THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING. ADVERTISED A LOW 20%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONES MONDAY EVENING THEN
PATCHY FOG DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 COAST.

TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
AND BEGIN TO STALL ACROSS N-CENTRAL FL TUE. PASSING SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS FROM THE NW BOTH TUE & WED AFTN MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA IN CONCERT WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO 30% IN THE
AFTN/EVENING WITH A FOCUS FOR THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND ISOLATED
TSTORM POTENTIAL TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN THEE AFTN/EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN...

THU-FRI...ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS AND WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE
WITH A LOW 15-25% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS THU AFTN
WITH THE SEA BREEZES AS THEY CONVERGE INLAND IN THE AFTN/EVENING.
FRI MEAN LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES FURTHER AS UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE GULF EXTENDS OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIP NOT LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.

NEXT WEEKEND...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS MOST PROBABLE OVER SE GA AND
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BECOME SHEARED OUT
AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO STALL OVER N
FL LATE SAT INTO SUN UNDER ZONAL INCREASINGLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE FRONT LATE SAT INTO SUN
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING OVER N FL AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.
BREEZY NNE FLOW SUN COULD BRING WAVES OF COASTAL SHOWERS INLAND
ACROSS NE FL UNDER LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. TEMPS WILL COOL
BACK NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO VALUES SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...THEN
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND LINGER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WAVES OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN
EAST OF THE WATERS THURSDAY AND DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND
BECOME SOUTH ON MONDAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. LOW HUMIDITY TODAY BETWEEN 20-25% INLAND WILL RECOVER
BOTH MON AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  74  52  77 /   0  40  30  20
SSI  46  70  56  69 /   0  30  30  10
JAX  42  76  56  77 /   0  10  20  20
SGJ  47  74  59  73 /   0  10  10  20
GNV  39  76  56  79 /   0   0  10  30
OCF  40  76  56  79 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SANDRIK/GUILLET



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