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Area Forecast Discussion

518
FXUS62 KJAX 281915
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...CONTINUING TO FOLLOW HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE EVOLUTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY EASTERN FL COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 18Z...AS
CURRENT SEEN IN RADAR TRENDS...WITH POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THRU 23Z AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WESTWARD W AND S OF JAX METRO AREA
(WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL EASTERN COUNTIES)...THEN DIMINISHING
ACTIVITY OVER ALACHUA/MARION/GILCHRIST COUNTIES AFTER 00Z. HOURLY
POP/WEATHER GRIDS WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND. PRETTY WARM ALOFT WITH
500MB TEMPS -3C TO -5C...SO ONLY ANTICIPATE ISOLATED
THUNDER...PERHAPS BEST CHANCE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE GA. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM (WED-THU NIGHT)... BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE FL PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA MAINLY SOUTH OF I-
10 WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT BUT STILL RELATIVELY WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR (-5 TO -6C AT 500 MB) A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.
HOTTEST AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS INLAND SE GA WHERE READINGS
THERE WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES.
HIGHS ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE AROUND 90
DEGREES...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (FRI-TUE)...THE LARGE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE A MEAN LAYER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z GFS IS SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE LOW MEANDERING ACROSS S
GA AND FL PANHANDLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE NE
GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN A WET PATTERN WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS EACH DAY. ACTIVITY
MOST NUMEROUS TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA THIS WEEK RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES NEAR THE COAST. CONTINUED THE GA/FL SPLIT TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SE GA WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER
AND BECOME MORE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE SE U.S.

RIP CURRENTS: GENERALLY LOW RISK BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK GOING SWD
TOWARD ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURF AND
MORE INFLUENCE FROM AN ELY SWELL AT 10 SECONDS. LOW TO MODERATE RISK
FOR WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  75  94 /  20  30  30  30
SSI  75  88  77  88 /  10  30  20  30
JAX  75  91  74  91 /  10  40  30  40
SGJ  75  88  76  88 /  10  50  30  40
GNV  73  93  73  90 /  60  60  30  60
OCF  74  92  74  89 /  60  60  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PW/PP



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