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Area Forecast Discussion

471
FXUS62 KJAX 022032 AAA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...THRU TONIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOW
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S INLAND...UPPER 50S
COAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
ONSHORE WINDS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME BUT REMAIN
RATHER SEASONABLE. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND AND IN
THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY BUT A FEW
LIGHT COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR THIS ACTIVITY OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DRY AIRMASS ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES
THE COAST AND WE HAVE CONFINED 20 PERCENT POPS TO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE ON MONDAY. LITTLE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE ON TUESDAY WHEN THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR A FEW OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH
INLAND. 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE TO GAINESVILLE WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF ST AUGUSTINE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AS A FEW INLAND MOVING
LIGHT COASTAL SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. LOWER RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AIR GETS DRAWN IN
FROM THE NORTH. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE
WATERS AS IT DRIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS SEEM MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

RIP CURRENTS: UPDATED TO MODERATE RISK FOR NE FL BEACHES REST OF
TODAY. LOW TO MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY. SOLID MODERATE RISK
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  81  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  59  76  63  75 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  55  80  58  80 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  59  77  64  77 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  53  82  56  83 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  55  83  57  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SHULER/



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