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Area Forecast Discussion

050
FXUS62 KJAX 280726
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
326 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. THE RIDGE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY CONVECTION TODAY AND WILL
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL TO THE
NORTHEAST...A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 FAR INLAND. THE DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TNGT...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF COASTAL SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF JAX. DRY AIR AND DECREASING WINDS WILL MAKE FOR
NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT...RESULTING IN LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR MANY INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH 65-70 CLOSE TO THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THIS FEATURE WILL
MAKE IT ONSHORE...SO WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM JAX BEACH
SOUTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE ATLANTIC
FRIDAY NIGHT. OFFSHORE SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT THE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ONSHORE SATURDAY MORNING WITH AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO INLAND AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO FAVOR A BETTER
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE
WEST SATURDAY EVENING WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING RAIN-FREE SATURDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MUGGIER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LOW WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
FURTHER INLAND...SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THE COAST A LITTLE MILDER WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN CONTROL...WE WILL
START TO FEEL THE EASTERN FRINGES OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AREA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN UNDER CAUTION CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  63  90  67 /  10   0  10  10
SSI  81  69  82  72 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  86  66  86  69 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  82  70  82  72 /   0  10  20  30
GNV  88  62  88  68 /   0   0  20  10
OCF  89  65  89  69 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SHULER/



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