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Area Forecast Discussion

358
FXUS62 KJAX 041303
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
903 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION GETTING AN EARLY START ALONG THE NE GULF
COAST THIS MORNING DUE TO MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTERACTING
WITH AN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATING LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOP WITH THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE BY MID DAY AND
PUSHING INLAND ACROSS NE FL DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY
BE STRONG ESP JUST WEST OF I-95 WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER
OUTFLOWS MERGE. SMALL SUBSIDENCE AREA ACROSS SE GA WILL TEND TO
INHIBIT CONVECTION THERE INITIALLY...BUT EXPECTING SCATTERED
STORMS THERE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SUBSIDENCE WANES. TEMPS/POPS
ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TS AT GNV BETWEEN
17Z- 19Z AND VQQ BETWEEN 19Z-21Z WHERE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
BE AS THE SEABREEZES PUSH INLAND. WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS AT OTHER
TERMINALS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z BUT AMENDMENTS FOR TS MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON (SSE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE SEABREEZE).
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK ALONG THE NE FL COAST DUE TO AN
EASTERLY GROUNDSWELL AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  72  92  71 /  30  40  60  40
SSI  90  76  85  76 /  20  40  50  50
JAX  93  74  90  72 /  40  30  60  50
SGJ  90  74  86  75 /  40  30  50  40
GNV  93  71  91  72 /  60  30  60  30
OCF  93  73  91  72 /  60  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA



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