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Area Forecast Discussion

474
FXUS62 KJAX 261835
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
235 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.NEAR TERM /Through Tuesday/...
Scattered showers and isolated storms were moving southwestward
across the western interior this afternoon, and this will continue
into the early evening before dissipating. Hi-res guidance
indicates that additional showers and storms may develop across
the eastern half of the region over the next few hours as well.

A weak area of low pressure will develop east and northeast of the
region tonight, and the flow will shift offshore. Showers and
storms will diminish in the evening, with a light offshore flow
overnight. Patchy fog and low stratus is possible across the
interior once again. The base of the upper trough will move over
the region on Tuesday, and deep westerly flow will prevail.
Guidance is indicating that under this deep westerly flow that
drier mid level air will move into the region tonight and Tuesday.
Mainly dry conditions will prevail until the afternoon, with only
isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
possible Tuesday afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the mid to
upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the coast. Highs on Tuesday
will be in the mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s to near 90
inland.

.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Cold frontal boundary will be Northwest of the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday, with moisture pooling along and ahead of it. This
will provide precipitation chances, especially into Wednesday
afternoon. Cold front is expected to slowly push Southeast across
forecast area late Wednesday night through the day Thursday. Showers
with a few storms will be possible along and ahead of the boundary,
with noticeably drier air advecting in behind it.

While temperatures will be near to slightly above normal this
period, a change in airmass will be noticeable by Thursday
afternoon, as dewpoints begin to fall.

&&

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

The cold front will clear the region to the Southeast Thursday
night. High pressure will then build from the Northwest Friday into
Friday night. While temperatures will not be much cooler on Friday,
the airmass will be noticeably drier with dewpoints ranging from the
lower 50s over inland Southeast Georgia to the lower 60s over
coastal Northeast Florida. The surface high builds to the North over
the weekend leading to a more moist onshore flow. This will result
in higher dewpoints as well as increasing precipitation chances
through the weekend into early next week.

High temperatures will be near normal through this period. Lows will
be below normal for the first half of this period, then return to
more normal levels over the weekend.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will cross the region from the Northwest Wednesday
night through Thursday. This will bring a drier airmass for
Thursday afternoon through Saturday. While RH levels are expected
to remain above critical levels, minimum RH values in the 30s are
anticipated Friday across the region, and extending into Saturday
over inland Southeast Georgia. High pressure will build to the
North over the weekend, leading to onshore flow, and an increase
in moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and isolated storms were moving southwest
across the central and western portions of the region, and may
impact KGNV over the next several hours. Other showers may develop
near the northeast Florida TAF sites through the afternoon hours.
Northeast winds around 10 knots with higher gusts will continue
through the afternoon, with winds diminishing and becoming
offshore overnight. Light winds will then continue through the end
of the TAF period. Patchy fog and low stratus is possible at the
TAF sites near daybreak.


&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will diminish over the GA waters tonight as an area
of low pressure moves NE and winds become offshore. A cold front
will slowly move across the waters on Thursday. No headlines
expected at this time.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  89  70  89 /  10  20  30  20
SSI  70  86  73  87 /  20  20  20  30
JAX  69  89  71  87 /  20  20  20  30
SGJ  69  86  73  87 /  20  20  30  40
GNV  68  88  71  88 /  30  30  30  30
OCF  69  88  71  86 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Struble/Shashy



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