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Area Forecast Discussion

611
FXUS62 KJAX 060230
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...SFC DATA SHOWS BROAD...COOL HIGH PRES RIDGE LOCATED
FROM MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE MID ATLC WITH N TO NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST REGION. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PASSING OVER THE
AREA WHILE GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY WITH A SHARP MID/UPPER POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FROM WRN GREAT
LAKES TO TX.

AS THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE PRODUCING A GRADUAL VEERING OF
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COASTAL SFC TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
WITH INCREASED PRES GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS AND LOCAL MARINE WATERS NW OF TROUGH AXIS. FOR
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO INCREASE COVERAGE AS SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU TOWARD
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z THROUGH 12Z. WHILE WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT
INLAND...THEY MAY INCREASE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. TEMPS ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIN TEMPS DUE
TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN MOS GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED.
THOUGH TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S OVER INLAND SE GA...STIRRING
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS MAY HINDER FROST FORMATION
THERE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES AND THE
MARINE WATERS DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SFC TROUGHING AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING STRATOCU CLOUDS SHOWING UP WELL IN THE SATELLITE FOG
CHANNEL WITH BUNNELL AND ST AUGUSTINE INDICATING A BROKEN DECK
AROUND 4000-5000 FT. VEERING WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL LIFT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING STRATO CLOUDS AROUND THE 3000-5000 FT
LEVEL OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFFECTING NE FL TAFS...BUT IMPACT SSI
AROUND THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME. SO THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS AROUND 3000 FT DEVELOPING AT SGJ LATER TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AFTER 08Z) AS CLOUDS THICKEN THERE. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES ON SATURDAY
EXCEPT FOR GNV WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS LOWER TO KEPT CIGS CLOSER TO
4000-5000 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME NNE AROUND 10-12G20KT AFTER 12Z
SAT.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA ACROSS THE NRN WATERS WHERE 41008 IS
NE 12G16KT...BUT SAUF1 NEAR 25 KT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HAZARDS
AS WINDS WILL BE ON A INCREASING TREND...MAINLY FOR THE NRN WATERS
AS COASTAL TROUGH AND EVENTUAL LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  33  49  36  56 /   0  20  30  10
SSI  38  51  38  54 /   0  30  50  20
JAX  38  54  38  56 /  10  30  50  20
SGJ  47  59  43  55 /  20  40  60  20
GNV  38  58  37  56 /  10  20  40  10
OCF  42  60  40  58 /  10  30  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/WALSH



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