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Area Forecast Discussion

975
FXUS62 KJAX 171959
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
259 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING AND STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE (1031
MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER MIDWESTERN STATES AND PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS LOCALLY...AS OUR REGION IS BETWEEN A ROBUST RIDGE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL OVER OUR AREA...COMPLIMENTS OF A
VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT AS DISPLAYED BY THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
JACKSONVILLE AND TALLAHASSEE. TEMPERATURES INLAND WERE NEAR
CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST...WHERE LOWER 60S WERE
OBSERVED. DEWPOINTS AT 19Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S.

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...
A CIRRUS SHIELD PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW...CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GA...WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. THESE CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL ONLY TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY...AS LOWS
FALL TO BELOW MID-DECEMBER CLIMO...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED
INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE COAST. FROST FORMATION IS
NOT EXPECTED INLAND...AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH EASTERN
CONUS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT NWLY TO NLY WINDS
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. UPSTREAM TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S ALLOWING HIGH CIRROFORM CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE ZONAL
FLOW WITH MAINLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH MINIMUMS NEAR 50 AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
MOISTEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE DEBILITATED WITH THE BEST ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GA, TENNESSEE, AND CAROLINAS. LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TRACK EASTWARD ALONG GULF COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION DECREASES IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
OVER OUR AREA...HAVE POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST POPS NW TO LOWEST
POPS SE SAT NIGHT...THEN LOWEST NW/HIGHEST SE SUNDAY.

A DEEP SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ALONG/NORTH OF SHALLOW
FRONT WILL BRING DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOST AREAS MONDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT THAT STALLS OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY
WILL PUSH PUSHING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONUS LONG WAVE TROF AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE RAINFALL EVENT AND QPF FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA MON/TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WITH COLD
FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN STRONG NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROF AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 3000 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS OF
NEAR OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY
SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT
SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE UP TO AROUND 60-62 DEGREES OVER WATER
TEMPS THAT ARE IN THE UPPER 50S BUT TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE IN THE
CURRENT FCSTS. THEN...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE WATERS AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  64  41  64 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  41  61  47  61 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  37  65  45  66 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  42  65  50  65 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  37  67  44  68 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  38  68  44  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/CORDERO/WALKER







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