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Area Forecast Discussion

581
FXUS62 KJAX 221848
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
248 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THIS AFTN THROUGH THU...DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH RIVER
VALLEY. NNE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST
AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN NEAR 15 MPH...THEN SUBSIDE IN THE
EVENING.

DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL DROP MIN TEMPS TONIGHT INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S OVER INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY...WITH
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THE COAST WARMER WHERE LOWS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 50S. DESPITE CHILLY VALUES...MINS WILL NOT CHALLENGE RECORD
LOWS FOR THE DATE WHICH ARE IN NEAR 40 INLAND TO 45 SSI.

DAYTIME HIGHS THU WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S OVER SE GA TO NEAR
80 SOUTHWARD TOWARD OCALA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A FEW
CUMULUS MOVING ONSHORE OVER OUR SE FL ZONES.

AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WAY TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT ANY PRECIP. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM OUR
WEST ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
INLAND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING A WARMING TREND
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MAX
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND THE ENSUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NNE WIND SURGE 15-20 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LIKELY ONSHORE FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RELAX THU INTO SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE NNW OF THE WATERS SETTLES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF
COAST REGION. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NE OF THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY. MODERATE RISK THURS DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MARGINALLY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (GENERALLY 28-35
PERCENT) ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INLAND EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER... WITH PREVAILING LIGHT WINDS AND ERC
VALUES FAR FROM CRITICAL VALUES...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  74  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  54  71  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  49  75  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  58  74  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  48  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  50  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET








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