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Area Forecast Discussion

687
FXUS62 KJAX 280838
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SE GA THIS AFTERNOON...

...HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SE GA AND PORTION OF NE FL FROM
1 PM TO 7 PM...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...

EARLY MORNING MINS STRUGGLING TO GET UNDER 80 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS
AND EXPECTING ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 DEGREES. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
AREAS ALONG THE I-95 AND I-10 CORRIDORS IN NE FL AND FOR ALL OF SE
GA FROM 1 TO 7 PM. THE W AND SW WINDS WILL ADVECT HEAT OUT TO THE
BEACHES AS WELL AS THERE WILL BE NO SEA BREEZE THERE TODAY. AN
APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF STORMS TO MAINLY INLAND SE GA AND THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE MUCH OF
SE GA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG INSTABILITY AND INCREASING BULK SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. HAVE RETAINED PREVIOUS
GUSTY WIND WORDING IN THE GRIDS TO MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SE GA DURING THE EVENING AND THEN STALL TO
NEAR THE STATE BORDER LATE AT NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN (GA) ZONES LATE AT NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE MOIST W TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN A
LOW END CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS EXTREME SE GA INTO NE FL BUT NO
SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING AND LIMITED DYNAMICS.

.TUESDAY...COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ALONG A LINE FROM EXTREME
SE GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SEWD WITH
ELEVATED PWAT VALUES OF 1.8 INCHES OR MORE FROM JAX TO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AREA. SFC CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY WITH A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH STORM MOTION ESE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. MODELS HAVE
BROUGHT DRIER IN A LITTLE FASTER AND THUS HAVE TWEAKED POPS DOWN A
BIT FROM PRIOR FCST. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS LIKE GOOD RAIN CHANCES
NEAR AND S OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE. DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUN TO YIELD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH A WEAK E COAST SEA BREEZE DUE TO PREVAILING
W-NW SFC FLOW. LOWER DEWPOINTS WORK IN FROM THE NW WITH VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SE GA. AS SUCH...WE WIND
UP WITH MIN RH VALUES OF ABOUT 30% FROM NW OF WAYCROSS.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH GFS BUFR SOUNDING
SHOWING PWATS BELOW 1 INCH AS THE DRY AIR WORKS SEWD INTO NE FL/SE
GA WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE
ERN CONUS. MORE COMFORTABLE LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER SE GA AND
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA AND GENERALLY LOWER 70S IN NE FL.

ON WEDNESDAY...FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER CENTRAL FL WITH
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR REMAINING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN NOTED IN
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR W AND E COAST SEA BREEZES BUT BASED ON
GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15% AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LACK OF DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW
DEWPOINTS AROUND THE 58 TO 65 DEG RANGE SO HEAT INDICES ARE WELL
BELOW CRITERIA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST LOCATIONS.

WED NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY
INCREASES AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY
HEADS ESE TOWARD OUR AREA. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES DUE TO BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MINS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO
MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SRN EXTENT OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD
TO SRN MS VALLEY WHICH WILL TRANSITION DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW TO THE
SW. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND TEMPS ALOFT
MAY COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS ALL INDICATES A RETURN TO LOW
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY FRI
THROUGH SUN WITH THE W COAST SEA BREEZE THE DOMINATE BOUNDARY
HELPING TO FOSTER AT LEAST SCATTERED DAILY CONVECTION. MAX/MIN TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME HEAVIER PRECIP PERIODS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AND SUN DUE TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVE AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA.
HAVE VCTS AT SSI BEGINNING AT 20Z...AND AT JAX...CRG...VQQ AT 22Z.
HAVE VCSH AT GNV AT 22Z.   AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR LOWER
CIGS/VSBY FROM TS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON EXACT
TIMING AND WILL LEAVE OUT TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT NIGHT (NOCTURNAL SURGE) OFFSHORE AND WILL
HAVE EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME ONSHORE BY MID WEEK AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC. OF
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE LATE TODAY
INTO TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA ON TUE AND WED
WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 28-35% ACROSS INLAND AREAS FROM
SUWANNEE VALLEY NWD INTO SE GA. THESE VALUES WHILE LOW ARE STILL ABOVE
ANY RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  71  93  66 /  40  40  10  10
SSI  96  77  90  75 /  30  30  20  10
JAX  97  76  93  71 /  20  30  30  20
SGJ  96  78  91  74 /  20  30  40  40
GNV  94  75  93  70 /  20  30  30  20
OCF  94  76  93  71 /  20  30  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BAKER-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS





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