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Area Forecast Discussion

233
FXUS62 KJAX 190850
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
450 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE (1010
MILLIBARS) MOVING INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
ALOFT...A CUTOFF CYCLONE WAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A DRY SLOT
THAT CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS ADVECTED INTO OUR
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER AIR LOW. AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK
COVERS MOST OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...WITH MID 50S IN INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WIDELY SCATTERED...MAINLY SMALL SHOWERS WERE
MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS THE CENTER OF THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. AS DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE...STEEP
LAPSE RATES/COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-16 TO -18 CELSIUS AT 500
MILLIBARS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE FAVORED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER...OR ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10. LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WE PLACED LIKELY POPS IN FOR
LOCATIONS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF WAYCROSS...EXTENDING INTO THE
JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA...AS UNSTABLE AIR IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY
BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...THEN A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNDRAFTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED COASTAL
SOUTHEAST GA AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL IN A 5% RISK FOR HAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION...WITH LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY...WHILE A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW BOOST HIGHS INTO
THE LOW/MID 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL FL.

OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN THIS EVENING AS STACKED
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE PRESSES SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. STRENGTHENING AND
CONVERGENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PLACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE
COASTAL COUNTIES...WHILE WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS END FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS.

SUN & SUN NIGHT...WINDY NNE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 20 MPH
AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS...WITH A FEW
CLOUD BREAKS BY MIDDAY OVER NE FL. PRECIP MAY IMPACT SE GA AND THE
COAST EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN BY AFTERNOON ONLY LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE COOLER MID/UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF SE GA AND THE
COAST...TO THE MID/UPPER 70S TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR FROM GNV TO
OCALA WHERE SOME CLOUD BREAK ARE EXPECTED. SUN NIGHT CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE NOSES DOWN
OVER N GA WITH A COOL NNE DRAINAGE FLOW SUPPORTING MIN TEMPS IN
THE LOW 50S OVER SE GA AND SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY TO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE NNE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY 15-20 MPH OVER NIGHT.

MON & MON NIGHT...BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
COULD SEE A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN DRY WX
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM
N TO S. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S INLAND TOWARD
I-75 TO THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST UNDER ONSHORE FLOW.
MON NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S INLAND WITH 1-3 DEG DEW PT DEPRESSIONS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SOME FOG POTENTIAL INLAND.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SFC FRONT WILL BRING A LOW 20%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY SE GA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WED/THU AS A SFC HIGH
SETTLES SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND TO OFFSHORE OF THE FL ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING PREVAILING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S-LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S-LOW 80S. SAT ANOTHER SHEARED OUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA...AND HAVE
ADVERTISED A 20% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA WITH HIGH TEMPS
WARMING IN THE MID 80S UNDER SSW WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH PERIODS OF IFR THROUGH MID-MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE LOCAL AREA. BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND INDICATED VCSH FOR THE TERMINALS AND TEMPO -SHRA. BY
AFTERNOON...MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. VARIABLE WINDS OF GENERALLY 6 KTS OR
LESS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FL FROM THE
WNW AND OVER GA FROM THE NNE AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS OFFSHORE OF
THE LOCAL COASTLINE MIDDAY. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NNE TONIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE IN NNE WINDS DOWN THE COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS
MORNING...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS EXPECTED TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH COASTAL LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY WIND SURGE OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER GRADUALLY
MOVES INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SUNDAY. SEAS IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FEET ON SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TO 6-9
FEET LATE TONIGHT AS A LONG FETCH OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPS...PEAKING AT 9-12 FEET ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY. HIGH RISK ANTICIPATED FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  50  69  52 /  50  50  10  10
SSI  67  54  65  55 /  60  60  20  10
JAX  74  54  71  55 /  60  50  20  10
SGJ  73  58  68  59 /  50  40  20  10
GNV  74  54  76  56 /  30  30   0  10
OCF  75  55  78  58 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

NELSON/ENYEDI








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