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Area Forecast Discussion

594
FXUS62 KJAX 061912
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
312 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

...LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DEVELOP...WITH THE CENTER
ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUE OFFSHORE
CLOSER TO THE LOW...WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INLAND
ACROSS NE FL. THIS BAND WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN THEN
DISSIPATING BY LATER THIS EVENING. THE LOW OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH WELL OFFSHORE THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH THE FLOW
TRANSITIONING FROM ONSHORE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...TO OFFSHORE NW
FLOW LATER TNGT/THURSDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION WITH
PRECIP ENDING AND CLOUDS DECREASING. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LESSER WINDS FURTHER
INLAND. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 FAR INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 60S COAST. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE DRIER NW FLOW WILL WARM TO
THE UPPER 80S FAR INLAND...WITH LOWER/MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THU NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY BECOME SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE
IS EXPECTED TO BE 225 TO 250 MILES NE OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL HAVE A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION COMPONENT.
PREVAILING NW FLOW LOW LEVEL EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. THE NAM/GFS HAS PUSHED THE SYSTEM FURTHER OFF THE
COAST...BUT STILL INDICATES SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM SC AND
ERN GA BUT ADVECTS THIS MOISTURE MORE SO ON FRIDAY INTO SE GA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL WOBBLE SLOWLY UP TO THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS WILL PLACE THE NE FL AND SE GA REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW...WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE DUE TO W/NWRLY
CONTINENTAL FLOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED ADVERTISED SLUG OF MOISTURE
CONTINUES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF SE GA. PWATS
WILL BE IN 1.3 TO 1.6 RANGE ACROSS SE GA. WITH THIS SAID HAVE
PAINTED POPS AT 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE
AREA.

FRI NIGHT...ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER AND
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE WEEKEND...WEAK HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FL EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO NORTH FL.
500MB HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO RISE WITH H8 TEMPS WARMING. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND AREAS AND LOWER 80S ALONG
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION...RETROGRADING
THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE GEORGIA COAST. WILL GO WITH
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME WITH SOME LEFT BENT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR EASTERN HALF OF CWA. ON SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 90S ACROSS INTERIOR NE FL AND INTERIOR SE GA. WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 60S SUNDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...MORE PERSISTENCE WITH BROAD 500 MB RIDGING ALOFT. WARM
TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90. PERHAPS A RELIEF FOR THE NE FL/SE GA BEACHES AS THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS GIVING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. ONLY ISOLD
CONVECTION FCST AT THIS TIME FOR AFTN HOURS...WHICH SHOULD FADE IN
THE EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FLAT SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES TOWARD AND
THEN INTO THE MID SOUTH. AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL SEEP INTO
GA BY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WASH OUT NEAR THE GA/FL
BORDER WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FROM THE GOMEX WILL EDGE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND LITTLE MORE
SO ON WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANTICIPATED INTER-PENINSULA
SEA BREEZE MERGER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TEMPS CONTINUE WARM IN THE MID 80S COAST
TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR WITH LIGHT W-SW FLOW ON TUESDAY. MINS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW END VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVE INLAND. WILL USE VCSH FOR JAX/VQQ/GNV FOR THE SHOWERS.
PRECIP WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING
AS FLOW BECOMES NW. SKC TO SCT250 WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST SITES
THURSDAY. NE WINDS 12-17 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING.

&&

CONDITIONS AT BUOY 41008 CONTINUE TO RUN UNDER SCA...WITH WINDS 15
KNOTS OR SO WITH SEAS OF AROUND 5 FEET. WITH CONDITIONS NOT LIKELY
TO WORSEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE LOW TRACKS FAR TO THE EAST...WILL
CANCEL THE SCA FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...RETAINING THE SCA FOR
THE OFFSHORE LEGS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SEAS OFFSHORE WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE
WITH LINGERING SWELL.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  84  62  86 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  64  77  63  80 /  10  10  10  20
JAX  63  83  63  84 /  10  10   0  10
SGJ  64  80  65  82 /  20  10   0  10
GNV  60  86  61  86 /  10   0   0  10
OCF  61  87  62  87 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/CORDERO



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