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Area Forecast Discussion

104
FXUS62 KJAX 250713
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
311 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Continued Hot with Heat Indices of 105 to 110 degrees today...

...Strong to Isolated Severe Storms possible across SE GA Late
Today...

.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...Mid level ridge across the area
today with southwest surface winds will result in hot temperatures
again. Highs will be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees over
inland areas with Heat Indices in the 105-110 degree range. The
beaches will also be hot with highs reaching the low/mid 90s
before the seabreeze pushes inland. Will issue a Heat Advisory for
most of se Ga as H.I. values equal or exceed 108 there. Isolated
to scattered seabreeze storms will occur over ne Fl by late
afternoon/evening. Storms that develop over central Ga near a slow
moving cold front may reach se Ga during the late
afternoon/evening hours. These storms may produce strong gusty
winds as they reach the Altamaha river. Storms will gradually
decrease tonight but may linger till midnight.

Sunday...Weak trof/left over frontal boundary and increased moisture
will lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms during the
afternoon and evening hours. The increased moisture and coverage of
storms will tweak max temps downward slightly, but still warm enough
airmass to support mid/upper 90s over inland areas and heat indices
close to 105 degrees again. Slight shift in steering flow out of the
Northeast will allow for further push of the Atlc Coast sea breeze
inland later in the day which will interact with the weak/southward
morning trof/frontal boundary to help kick off shower/storm
activity. Strong activity with gusty winds possible along with the
usual frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall from slow moving
storms.

Monday...Some high pressure ridging at the surface and aloft pushing
south out of the SE U.S. and into South Georgia will dry the airmass
across SE GA out slightly where storms that develop during the
afternoon hours will be lower in coverage while still expect
scattered to numerous showers/storms across NE FL and near the FL/GA
border with the slightly stronger onshore flow and frontal boundary
in the region further pushing down temps with highs in the lower to
middle 90s, but more moisture will still push heat indices close to
105 degrees by the afternoon again.

.LONG TERM...

Tue-Sat...A series of weak fronts pushing into the SE U.S. and
stalling just NW of the region will keep a moist SW steering flow
across NE FL/SE GA and with PWATS closer to 2 inches, this will
support a more normal rainy season pattern with scattered to
numerous diurnal showers/storms in the afternoon/evening with Max
Temps falling back closer to normal in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail again today with light
sw winds...becoming southeast near the east coast this afternoon.
Isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms possible at TAF sites
but chances are too low to include in TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...South to southwest winds will persist through tonight
and then become easterly Sunday as a weakening backdoor cold
front sags south into the waters. The front will dissipate with a
south to southwest flow resuming early next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk today and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  99  74  95  73 /  30  30  50  20
SSI  93  77  90  76 /  20  30  40  20
JAX  97  76  94  74 /  20  20  60  30
SGJ  90  75  91  75 /  20  20  40  30
GNV  94  73  95  73 /  30  20  60  30
OCF  94  74  94  73 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for Appling-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Coastal Camden-Coastal
     Glynn-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...None.
&&

$$

Zibura/Hess



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