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Area Forecast Discussion

597
FXUS62 KJAX 010732
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION THIS PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CONVECTION INITIATION WILL
PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. FOR TODAY...EXPECT INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON JUST
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH THE CONVECTIVE AREA SLOWLY MOVING WEST
AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES IN. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR BOTH DAYS...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS
INLAND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

BROAD SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MON NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY VEERING AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE E
COAST LATE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER AL AND
GA WILL AFFECT OUR NRN ZONES MON NIGHT. WITH A MEAN TROUGH POSITION
SETTING UP OVER THE ERN CONUS...MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND GRADUALLY INCREASES. AN ASSOCD COLD
FRONT WITH A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRES ALONG IT WILL MOVE TO THE E
COAST ON TUESDAY FROM THE MID ATLC SWWD TO NRN GA TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

A MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH PWATS AOA 1.5
INCHES...WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. GIVEN
REGIME...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE ELEVATED...WITH ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SFC FRONT THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE BASED ON
GFS FCST SOUNDINGS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
NEAR 30 KT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SE GA HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE...LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH DEVELOPMENT OF ERN CONUS
TROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY FEATURING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING E AND OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
EXITING TO THE E DURING THE DAY. DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W AND NW WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY
COMING TO AN END WED AFTN/EVENING AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX PATTERN EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT AS
ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY. SFC
HIGH PRES OVER THE SRN CONUS VERY GRADUALLY MOVES EWD TOWARD OUR
AREA. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING SSE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. CERTAINLY SEE A BREAK
FROM THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS NOW WITH CONSENSUS HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. IF SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VERIFIES...WE COULD
ACTUALLY CHALLENGE RECORD LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO
MID 40S. OCNL BREEZY NW TO W WINDS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY INLAND FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
BUT AT THIS POINT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF AREA WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. A COOL
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AREA WATERS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  88  68 /  30  30  30  40
SSI  82  71  82  70 /  10  10  30  30
JAX  87  68  87  69 /  20  10  30  30
SGJ  84  70  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
GNV  90  67  89  67 /  30  30  30  20
OCF  90  67  89  68 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY



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