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Area Forecast Discussion

087
FXUS62 KJAX 031313
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
913 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...SFC DATA SHOWS WEAK LOW PRES NEAR THE SE GA COAST WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING SW INTO THE FL BIG BEND AND INTO THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL FORCING NOTED NEAR THE GA COAST WITH VORT
MAX IN NW TO W FLOW...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER SW GA IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR AND RUC
ANALYSIS THAT IS PRETTY WELL DEFINED WAS OVER ERN/SERN AL MOVING
EWD THAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR WX LATER TODAY.

CURRENTLY AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SE GA WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
THIS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT. CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH REMNANT LOW ARE
OFF THE SE GA COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT TO SEA FURTHER.
PRIOR FCST OF ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS LOOKS GOOD
THOUGH WILL TWEAK THEM UP SLIGHTLY TO BASED ON HRRR MODEL RUNS
AND 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT 2.15 INCHES AND LI OF -7. THINK MOST
IF NOT ALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE AFTN HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW/VORT MAX OFFSHORE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO INSTABILITY. SHORTWAVE
COMING INTO OUR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY INCREASE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AROUND THE 4 PM TO 10 PM TIME FRAME AND WILL BE MONITORED
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR TO IFR CIGS THIS MORNING ARE MAINLY LIMITED AT
THIS TIME TO JAX...SSI AND CRG WITH MVFR CIGS BY 15Z/16Z. REST OF
TAFS VFR AT THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT
TERMINALS THIS AFTN BUT LOW PROBABILITIES SUGGEST KEEPING VCTS AT
THIS TIME. OVERALL LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN PRIOR
DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR 10 TO OCNL 15 KT THIS MORNING WILL
DECREASE THIS AFTN. SEAS 2-3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN ACROSS THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS. MINOR
TWEAKS IN THE UPDATED CWF.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW SEAS AND WEAK WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RISK
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  73  94  73 /  30  20  30  20
SSI  86  76  89  76 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  89  75  92  73 /  30  20  40  30
SGJ  91  75  89  75 /  30  20  40  30
GNV  92  73  92  72 /  30  30  50  40
OCF  92  74  91  73 /  40  30  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/WALSH



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