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Area Forecast Discussion

601
FXUS62 KJAX 011319
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME LABOR DAY PATTERN. 12Z SOUNDINGS AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG I-10 CORRIDOR WITH
LOW-LEVEL WEAK SW FLOW JAX NORTHWARD...WEAK SE FLOW S OF JAX. RIDGE
ALOFT OVER SRN GA WITH WEAK NE FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA. 12Z SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ABOVE 850MB WITH LAYERS OF WEAK
BACKING WINDS SUGGESTING THE SUBSIDENCE. MIXED PARCEL CAPE SUGGESTS
GENERALLY CAPPED AIRMASS EXCEPT WITH SEABREEZE SUPPORT. HI RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONVERGE ON PATTERN WITH ISOLATED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
AROUND NOON ALONG EAST COAST AND WEST COAST OF PENINSULA...WITH
ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE TOWARD 23Z AS SEA BREEZES CONVERGE
OVER CTRL PENINSULA. ANTICIPATE FASTER WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF EAST
COAST SEABREEZE OVER NCTRL FL GIVEN CURRERNT LLVL SE FLOW...COMPARED
TO SE GA GIVEN CURRENT LLVL SW FLOW.

HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY POP GRID PATTERN TO SUPPORT THE ABOVE
SCENARIO...WHICH MAY BE REPEATED ON TUE. LOW-LEVEL SOUNDING TEMPS AND
MODEL FORECAST LOW-LEVEL TEMPS/THICKNESSES SUPPORT EQUALLY HOT CONDITIONS
INTERIOR SE GA/NE FL WHERE WE HAD SEVERAL 97-99 DEG READINGS YESTERDAY.
SOME AREAS OF THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS...BUT ANTICIPATE ENOUGH INSOLATION
TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE CURRENT FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE HIGH TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN TAFS. ANTICIPATE WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSRA WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCAL
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. VCTS CURRENTLY IN TAFS...WILL REEVALUATE
KGNV FOR A PERIOD OF GREATER TSRA POTENTIAL IN 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR GREATER TSRA COVERAGE IN THAT AREA DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS TODAY. NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED
IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: UPDATING TO JUST LOW RISK THIS AFTERNOON...NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SWELL DETECTED BY AVAILABLE BUOYS...AND
WITH NO LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...THINK LOW RISK WILL BE FINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  96  73  94  73 /  50  50  50  50
SSI  88  77  88  76 /  20  10  20  10
JAX  92  74  92  73 /  20  10  20  20
SGJ  88  75  89  74 /  20  10  20  10
GNV  92  72  92  71 /  60  50  40  40
OCF  92  72  92  72 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/GUILLET






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