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Area Forecast Discussion

893
FXUS62 KJAX 131428
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
928 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT THE EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS MOVED DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DROPPING RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES.OVERALL ITS GOING TO BE A COOL AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
UPPER 20S. WHILE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS INLAND THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A NORTHWEST AND NORTH FLOW OF 10-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
LIGHT CHOP OF SMALLER AIRCRAFT BELOW 10 KFT. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEARSHORE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DIMINISH LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY AND AS THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WINDS WILL BECOME EAST
TO SOUTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND MODERATE RISK ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  30  54  39 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  53  35  50  45 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  56  34  57  46 /   0   0  10  20
SGJ  55  40  57  50 /   0   0  20  20
GNV  60  33  64  46 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  62  36  65  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SANDRIK/ZIBURA/GUILLET



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