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Area Forecast Discussion

174
FXUS62 KJAX 250124
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
924 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP
A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL
BACK OFF A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL BLOW 15 TO 20 MPH OVER COASTAL
COUNTIES TOMORROW. ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY STABLE WITH A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF JACKSONVILLE. HOWEVER...
PERSISTENT SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AND A
SMALL WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SETUP JUST OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR OVER THE MARINE AREA... SOME THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUNDING DATA AND LATEST OBS SUGGEST STRATOCU CEILINGS
WILL BE FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW 3000 FT TONIGHT WITH CIGS DOWN TO
THE 1000-2000 FT LEVEL FOR THE COASTAL TAF SITES. ISOLD SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO SNEAK IN NEAR OR AT THE COASTAL TAF SITES
BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE FCST ATTM.
ON MONDAY...WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 10G20KT AND TURN MORE ESE
WITH CIGS STARTING OUT AROUND THE IN MVFR RANGE THEN RISE
TO 3000-5000 FT BY THE AFTN HOURS. ISOLD SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING FOR COASTAL TAFS...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE
FOR GNV IN THE AFTN BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES PRECLUDE
THE INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 6
FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS OFFSHORE TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS
THEY PUSH CLOSER TO LAND.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  89  70  88 /  10  30  10  20
SSI  74  84  75  84 /  20  30  10  10
JAX  70  87  70  87 /  20  20  10  10
SGJ  75  84  74  84 /  20  30  10  10
GNV  69  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  30
OCF  70  91  71  88 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL DUVAL-
     COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WALSH/SHASHY/GUILLET



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