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Area Forecast Discussion

192
FXUS62 KJAX 291948
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECREASED ACROSS
NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHED
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH WAS LINGERING
ROUGHLY FROM HOMERVILLE TO BRUNSWICK THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF OF THE FRONT COULD
STILL SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NE FL DUE TO
PERSISTENT MID- HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WHERE DRIER AIR
INFILTRATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS IN THE
LOWER 60S AT DQH AND AMG. AFTER MIDNIGHT  EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS TEMPS COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S
RIVER BASIN/COAST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS PRESSING INLAND FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION FROM GNV/OCF THROUGH SUNRISE.

TUE & TUE NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY LATE TUE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK WSW PUSHING
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD OVER SE GA TUE AFTN...AND COMBINED
WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL AXIS EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
COMPARED TO TODAY OVER SE GA WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NE
FL. HIGH WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET AS LOW FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
70S.

WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...MEAN LAYER TROUGH OVER GA WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DIURNAL PRECIPITATION WITH 500 MB TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE UNDER MOIST WSW FLOW OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ADVERTISED HIGH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 60% FIRST
MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF EACH MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION
WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
FROM FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND TRENDED A TAD LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH MON...

SYNOPSIS...MORE SEASONAL PRECIP PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

FRI-SUN...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
FRI AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE EDGES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE HELD NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ENABLING BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO PENETRATE INLAND. ADVERTISED NEAR CLIMO DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES WITH BOTH SEA BREEZES DRIFTING INLAND WITH THE FOCUS FOR
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN I-75 AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. ABOVE CLIMO
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

MON...MEAN RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER SE GA.
ADVERTISED BELOW NORMAL PRECIP WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY AROUND 30%
WITH HOT TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SSI ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A MEANDERING FRONT ACROSS SE GA. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE ESE OF FL TERMINALS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER CIRRUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WSW WINDS. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL EDGE INLAND FROM THE GULF
TUE MORNING AND NEAR GNV/SGJ BY MID-LATE MORNING AND INCLUDED VCSH
FOR BOTH SITES BETWEEN 13-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAK SURFACE FRONTS
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTH GEORGIA. NOCTURNAL WIND
SURGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE-THU NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED DISPERSIONS TUE AND WED OVER SE GA AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  71  92 /  10  30  30  60
SSI  75  89  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  91  74  92 /  10  50  20  60
SGJ  73  90  75  89 /  30  30  20  60
GNV  71  90  72  91 /  20  40  20  60
OCF  73  90  73  91 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALKER



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