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Area Forecast Discussion

185
FXUS62 KJAX 010643
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
242 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...Meteorological summer to begin with typical heat, humidity and
scattered strong thunderstorm activity...

.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...Summer-like pattern will continue
today with ridging aloft providing high temperatures again in the
lower 90s inland. Light winds will allow seabreezes to move inland
producing isolated to scattered afternoon storms. Dry air in
mid/upper levels and a slow cell motion from the nw will mean
strong gusty winds and heavy downpours will be possible with the
stronger storms. Convection will die off this evening with low
temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s tonight.

Thu/Fri/Sat...Summer-like pattern will continue with sea breezes
pushing inland each day with scattered (30-50%) storm coverage
between the I-95 and I-75 corridors each afternoon/early evening
with Max Pops along the U.S. 301 Corridor. Ridge of High pressure
across the region will lead to light and variable storm motion at 10
mph or less with scattered strong storms with gusty winds to 50 mph
and minor damage the main impacts although the slow storm motion may
lead to some localized/temporary flooding issues. The ridge as the
surface will also lead to hot and humid conditions with max temps
well into the lower/middle 90s inland with heat indices topping out
around 100 degrees each afternoon while the Atlc coast will peak in
the upper 80s until the sea breeze pushes through.

.LONG TERM /Sun-Wed/...

Sun/Mon...Slow moving frontal boundary will push into the SE U.S. on
Sunday then into NE FL/SE GA region on Monday and this will lead to
an increase in shower/thunderstorm coverage as moist southwest
steering flow pushes more storms across the region and storms will
become numerous during the afternoon/evening hours with Pops
increasing to (50-60%) range and the faster storm movement will
continue to lead to strong/isold severe activity with winds still
the main impacts.

Tue/Wed...Models trying to come into agreement by pushing moisture
and frontal boundary southward into Central Florida with possible
scattered storms across NE FL on Tuesday, then almost mostly dry by
Wednesday. Still only low-moderate confidence in this solution and
if the frontal boundary ends up stalling over the region could be
rather wet period from the late weekend through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Patchy early morning fog possible til around 13z
mainly where rain occurred last evening. VFR conditions should
prevail this morning into early afternoon. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms possible after 17z as seabreezes move inland.

&&

.MARINE...With surface ridge to the south a sw flow will prevail
becoming se near the coast in the afternoons. SW winds will
increase to near SCEC levels this weekend due to nocturnal surges
ahead of approaching cold front to the nw.

Rip Currents: low risk through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  71  95  70 /  20  10  40  20
SSI  89  73  88  74 /  20  10  20  10
JAX  94  73  93  72 /  20  10  30  10
SGJ  89  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  10
GNV  93  70  95  71 /  30  20  40  20
OCF  93  71  94  71 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Zibura/Hess



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