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Area Forecast Discussion

837
FXUS62 KJAX 062017
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
317 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

...FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR SE GA WITH A LIGHT FREEZE
POSSIBLE...

.NEAR TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SE GA AND NE FL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MORE PERSISTENT BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY FROM SGJ TO OCALA SOUTHWARD. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED
STEADY ESE SHIFT OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FIELD OVER SOUTHERN
GA...WITH SOME EROSION AND LIFTING INTO A CUMULUS FIELD OVER
CENTRAL GA FOLLOWING  THE PASSAGE OF THE 850 MB TROUGH AXIS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING LAGGED BY LOW LEVEL CLOUD
DISSIPATION...WILL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER SE GA AFTER 5 PM AND
THEN NE FLORIDA AFTER SUNSET.

TONIGHT CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER OVER AREAS SOUTH OF SGJ-GNV WHERE
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S. FARTHER SOUTH CLEARING SKIES
AND A COOL NLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
30S. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN
AROUND SUNRISE SAT MORNING...WITH DURATIONS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
EXPECTED FOR LESS THAN 2 HRS. A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SE GA WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT GIVEN TODAYS CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR IN NE FL AREAS OF FROST WERE ADVERTISED.

.SHORT TERM...SAT THROUGH MON...

DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SAT THROUGH SUN
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST. TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THEN INTO THE
70S SUN AS CLOUDS THICKEN FROM THE SOUTH. MIN TEMPS WILL MODERATE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT NIGHT INTO THE 50S SUN NIGHT.

THE LINGERING FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON PRECEDED BY AREAS OF FOG AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
BOTH TIMING AND EXTENT OF RAINFALL AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
NE FL LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING...THEN OVER SE GA THROUGH MON.
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORCING NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD SO ALTHOUGH ISENTROPIC PROCESSES
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PASSING SHOWERS...NOT EXPECTING
A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES
WERE CAPPED AT 40% FOR NE FL MON AND 50% FOR SE GA MON AFTN INTO MON
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH FRI...

NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS AND PASSING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK AS MEAN LAYER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EAST OF THE FL
PENINSULA WITH A DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. EXTENDED
GUIDANCE (GFS40/ECMWF/DGEX) WERE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WHICH
ADVERTISED A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S UNDER
MOSTLY  CLOUDY SKIES. CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT 40%.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS GUSTING AROUND 20
KTS. LOW CIGS AND BR ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE KEPT LOW END IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE 18Z PACKAGE WITH MEDIOCRE CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CIGS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...LIFR CIGS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE UPDATE AS LOW
CLOUD DECK MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MARINE...

BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FORM THE WEST AND
THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT...THEN EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
SAT FOR THE NEARSHORE LEGS AND THEN OFFSHORE LEGS SAT EVENING.
WINDS VEER ONSHORE MON THEN SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SUB-
HEADLINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND SAT DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  33  64  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  37  59  42  66 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  38  63  41  71 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  44  61  49  69 /  30   0   0   0
GNV  38  68  43  76 /  20   0  10   0
OCF  42  69  48  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALSH



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