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Area Forecast Discussion

638
FXUS62 KJAX 010812
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INLAND SHOWERS AND STORMS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...

A MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDGE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
A CONTINUED LIGHT EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND HEATING AGAIN FAVORS DIURNAL STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE TOWARDS
THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVE WHERE THERE WILL BE
THE MERGER OF SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE AGAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION.
MAX TEMPS CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER
90 ALONG THE COAST. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES ACROSS
INLAND SE GA AND 100 TO 102 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND NE FL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY FADE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE WEST AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH...TO JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. A PATTERN OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS INLAND
TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE...
FROM SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY MERGERS AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION.
POPS WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE EAST COAST DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. MAX TEMPS REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S
INLAND AND A SHADE UNDER 90 AT THE COAST. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES 100 TO
102 DEGREES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INLAND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FADE DURING THE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER SRN GA WITH
LIGHT ELY WIND FLOW REGIME HELPING TO PROPAGATE E COAST SEA BREEZE
INLAND DURING THE DAY. MID TO UPPER TROUGH (TUTT) WILL TRANSLATE WWD
ACROSS S AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY ISOLD ALONG COASTAL
COUNTIES WED WITH MAINLY LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
NEAR 30% CHANCE FOR INLAND ZONES. HIGHS AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST AND
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. EVENING CONVECTION MAINLY JUST ISOLD WILL
FADE FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...THU-SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING TUTT FEATURE MOVING WWD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND USHER IN DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
THE SE ZONES BY LATER IN THE DAY ON THU WHICH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ON FRI. BASED ON THIS...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH OUR RAIN
CHANCES WILL GET A NICE BOOST TO CLIMO VALUES OR HIGHER...WITH
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BEING PUSHED BACK NWD AND/OR WEAKENING. WHILE
EURO AND GFS MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS ON THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SAT AND SUN...THEY EACH SHOW MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MEAN LAYER
MOISTURE AND A WEAK PRES GRADIENT TO SUPPORT DAILY SEA BREEZES AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. OVERALL...BEST RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR INLAND ZONES DURING THE PERIOD THU-SAT
BASED ON THE FLOW REGIME...BUT PERHAPS MORE HOMOGENEOUS POPS ON SUN
AS DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOME LIGHT S TO SW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FRI THROUGH SUN WITH PWAT VALUES UPWARDS OF 2
INCHES AND LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS. HAVE TRENDED MAX TEMPS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PERIOD BUT STAYED NEAR OR JUST BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR VSBY FROM PATCHY FOG AT GNV AND VQQ TIL 12Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE TOWARDS THE I-75
CORRIDOR WHERE SEABREEZES AND OUTFLOWS MERGE. HAVE VCTS AT GNV
BETWEEN 21Z-02Z AND VQQ BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. HAVE VCSH AT JAX AND CRG
BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. AMENDMENTS FOR POSSIBLE IFR DUE TO TS POSSIBLE AT
GNV AND VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS MAINLY SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST 10
KNOTS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE EVENING BUT BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

RIP CURRENTS: A LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELL AND AN AFTERNOON ONSHORE
FLOW WARRANTS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  73  94  73 /  60  30  50  50
SSI  88  77  88  76 /  20  10  20  10
JAX  92  74  92  73 /  30  10  20  20
SGJ  88  75  89  74 /  20  10  20  10
GNV  92  72  92  71 /  60  40  40  40
OCF  92  72  92  72 /  60  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS





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