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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KJAX 250758

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
355 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016


Today and tonight...Mid level high pressure system over the MS/AL
area will slowly shift east northeast with local flow veering
gradually. Models suggest a weak mid level vort max will move
westward from the offshore Atlantic waters today and help generate
more clouds and lift for a few more showers than what had occurred
on Wednesday. POPs are forecast mainly in the 20-30 percent range
south of a line from Brunswick GA to Live Oak FL. With rather poor
thermodynamics...only isolated thunderstorms at best for the late
morning and aftn hours. Highs today will be tempered by more clouds
over NE FL today with upper 80s coastal NE FL and SE GA but still
lower to mid 90s well inland. Breezy northeast flow again around 15-
20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph at times along the coastal areas.
Tonight...a fairly quiet evening again with just isolated shower
activity and breezy northeast winds near the coastal areas. Mostly
clear to partly cloudy with mins in the lower 70s inland to mid 70s
to near 80 at the coast.

Friday...a deeper easterly flow as mid level high moves toward West
VA. Anticipate low rain chances again...mainly assigned to the
southeast portion of the forecast area around the 20-30 percent
range. Think mainly isolated thunderstorms as stronger subsidence
may win out against strong updrafts for tstms. Highs will be a tad
higher given some drier air aloft. Breezy northeast flow expected
for coastal areas again.

Friday night through Saturday night... Broad upper level ridging
continues over the southeast U.S. through Saturday night. On the
surface, strong high pressure off the New England coastline ridges
southwest over the southeast U.S. as a result an east-northeast wind
flow will continue through the Saturday night.  During Friday
night...PWAT values range from 1.0 to 1.5" across most of the
region...with best moisture shunted southward over the central
Peninsula. On Saturday, higher PWs near 2 inches pivot from the
adjacent Atlantic mainly south of Interstate 10. Then drier air will
follow Saturday night, with 700-500 mb rh values dropping 15 to 30
percent humidity levels translating to 1.5" PWs once again.  Most
precipitation Friday night will be well offshore, followed by
isolated and widely scattered showers Saturday afternoon mainly south
of Interstate 10. By late Saturday  night...low pressure nears the
Bahamas with a coastal trough axis extending northward and advancing
toward the local coastline Sat night...with an increase in
convection east to west through Sat night as coastal convergence
increases. Lows Friday night range from the lower 70s across
interior SE GA and inland NE FL with mins near 80 at the coast. Max
temperatures Saturday afternoon will be in the lower 90s across
inland SE Ga and NE FL to the upper 80s coastal counties. Lows
Saturday night will be in the mid 70s, except upper 70s to near 80
along the coast.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

On Sunday, moisture could return to more typical levels by the
afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible across
SE GA and NE FL.  High pressure aloft will continue over the mid
Atlantic states while a tropical feature or low resides over the
Bahamas.  Lower Boundary layer moisture increases while north of
Interstate 10 the mid levels of the atmosphere remain rather dry.
Thunderstorms that develop north of Interstate 10 may have localized
gusty winds. Highs will be in the upper 80s coastal counties and
lower 90s across the interior.

Attention then turns to the tropical disturbance projected to
approach southern Florida late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.
Models are in fairly good agreement that the area of low pressure
will move west-northwestward through the Bahamas and toward the
southern Florida late Sunday, but diverge markedly after that. On
Monday, the 12z GFS turns the disturbance northward into the eastern
interior of Florida, traveling northward Florida in a debilitated
manner thru Tuesday night and Wednesday, and into SE GA Thursday and
Friday.  The 00z ECMWF moves the potential system northward
paralleling the Florida west coast before turning northward in the
far eastern Gulf, which would place it over Apalachee Bay on Tuesday
evening. Model intensity guidance greatly varies, with several
members keeping the disturbance as a tropical storm or weaker, while
others develop a stronger system. The eventual track and intensity
of this disturbance could result in significant changes to our
forecast early next week into mid week, so we will continue to
closely monitor this system.

Depending on the track of the tropical disturbance, pockets of heavy
rain may be possible next week over portions of SE GA and NE FL.
However, it is too early to determine with much confidence where
this could occur.

With a continued west-northwest motion expected for the next several
days. It is important that both residents and visitors to Florida
remain aware of the latest forecasts from local National Weather
Service Forecast Offices and the National Hurricane Center.


.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR. Areas of sct-broken stratocu clouds
around 3500-6000 ft expected through the day with a few showers
possible. Indicated VCSH by late morning in TAF sites. Light
northeast winds inland will increase by 13z-15z to 10-15 knots with
gusts to 20-22 knots. Terminals SSI and SGJ will continue with NE
breezy flow near 12-15G20-25kt through the period.


.MARINE...East to northeast winds near 15 kt today with seas around
5 feet with periods near 6 seconds so poor boating conditions. This
will continue Friday. Occasional winds around 15-20 kt are possibly
through Friday. Continuation of east to northeast wind of 15-20 kt
over the weekend and early next week and seas around 6 feet at
times.  Will continue to monitor the tropical disturbance mentioned
in the latest tropical wx outlook northwest of Puerto Rico that may
affect the forecast region next week.

Rip Currents: At least a moderate risk of rip currents today and
Friday due to moderate onshore flow.


AMG  93  70  93  71 /  10   0  10  10
SSI  88  77  88  79 /  20  10  10  10
JAX  89  73  90  75 /  30  10  10  10
SGJ  88  77  87  79 /  20  20  20  20
GNV  90  72  91  73 /  20  10  20  10
OCF  91  73  92  74 /  20  10  30  10


.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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