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Area Forecast Discussion

647
FXUS62 KJAX 292004
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...OVER TOP OF A SURFACE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO REACH
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. WHILE MODELS PRODUCE A GOOD
DEAL OF MOISTURE IN THE STRATUS LAYER WITH THIS FEATURE...THERE IS
NOT MUCH SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT CLEARING FOR
LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT...AIDED BY THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO HELP
TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR N WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING NE TO E BY SAT MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. STILL QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT FROST POSSIBLE INLAND.

SATURDAY...A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRES TO THE SE U.S. COAST...AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. STILL
RELATIVELY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY
COOLER AT THE COAST. SAT NIGHT... SFC HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SELY. SOME STRAY SHOWERS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
WATERS AS WAA ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS FURTHER AND WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HINDERED BY MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

SUNDAY...INVERTED SFC TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE FL/GA COAST
AND PUSHING NWWD WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SLY IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR W. FLOW ALOFT NOT STRONG IN
AMPLITUDE BUT SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO HELP GENERATE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION MOVING INTO OUR REGION
DURING LATER PART OF SUNDAY. BEST POPS MAY BE ASCRIBED TO OUR W AND
NW ZONES. STILL...INSTABILITY TOO MARGINAL/LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION
OF TSTMS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. POPS ARE ELEVATED ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MARCHES EWD. SUBSEQUENT FCSTS MAY UP
THE CHANCES FURTHER. FRONT FCST TO LAY ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES MONDAY
MORNING WITH SLUG OF MOISTURE PROGRESSING S OF THE AREA BY THE AFTN.
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA LATE MON THROUGH TUE WILL SCOOT QUICKLY TO
THE E COAST AND THEN OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW BEGINS AGAIN TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED AS BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND THEN THE E COAST. RAIN
CHANCES ARE ADVERTISED TO INCREASE TO THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE N CENTRAL GULF. THURSDAY...COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE S OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND IN STORE WITH COOLER TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. OWING TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AS WELL AS QUESTIONABLE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS FOR NOW FOR THE MID WEEK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z-15Z. A BAND OF STRATUS
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS. THEREFORE CONDITIONS COULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE
EARLY MORNING. LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH NEAR KGNV IN THE
MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW SWELL HEIGHTS AND
LIGHT COASTAL/BEACH WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  59  32  59 /  20  10   0   0
SSI  47  59  38  55 /  20  20   0   0
JAX  45  63  37  61 /  10  20   0   0
SGJ  45  64  43  60 /  10  20   0   0
GNV  43  66  36  66 /  10  20   0   0
OCF  44  69  37  68 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY



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