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Area Forecast Discussion

050
FXUS62 KJAX 290716
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
316 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...

Showers and a few storms continue across the swamp in southeast
Georgia, with showers extending northeast across St. Simons
island. Another small line of showers was developing and pushing
slowly east to the east of Amelia City. MRMS rainfall estimates
were as high as 8-10 inches to the south of Hoboken in southeast
Georgia and an Areal Flood Warning will continue there until 345
am. Guidance has indicated for some time that this area of
showers/storms would dissipate by now, but storms continue to
develop near the FL/GA border and off the coast of northeast
Florida along an old boundary across the region.

Upper level troughing is forecast through tonight across the
eastern conus, with various shortwaves reinforcing the trough.
For the local area, southwesterly flow will prevail. At the
surface, a weak frontal boundary will stall across central
Georgia and a remnant boundary may remain across the region as
well. Early morning clouds will give way to seasonably hot
temperatures in the low/mid 90s. The light southwesterly flow at
the surface will delay the east coast sea breeze until the mid
afternoon, and scattered to numerous showers and storms are
forecast to develop along the sea breeze. Scattered showers and
storms may initially develop along the Gulf coast sea breeze as it
moves inland. Numerous showers and storms are also forecast to
develop south of the boundary in southeast Georgia. Freezing
levels will be high once again around 15.5 kft. Strong downdrafts
due to water loading are possible in the afternoon. Showers and
storms will continue through the evening and into the overnight
hours before dissipating. Overnight lows will be warm in the low
to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM /Thursday and Thursday night/...

Thursday will also see elevated chances for showers and
thunderstorms (50-60 percent POPS) with stalled dilapidated
boundary over central Georgia and respective west and east coast
seabreezes developing. The seabreezes look like they will merge
between highway 301 and I-95. Increased cloud cover should hold
off max temps a couple degrees in the low 90s inland with upper
80s along the coast. Early Thursday evening, some lingering
convection is possible over the coastal counties of SE GA and NE
FL. Additional convection is anticipated over interior southern
counties of NE FL and Suwannee Valley with some advection of
showers and thunderstorms from the Nature Coast or Big Bend region
during the pre-dawn hours very late Thursday night. Low temps will
be in the mid 70s interior to upper 70s along the coast.

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Mid level trough will remain situated across the eastern US end
of this week through the weekend into the beginning of next week
as a series of weak disturbances rotate through the southeast US
in the vicinity of another stationary frontal boundary across
central or north central Georgia. Early in the weekend upper
ridging over the Bahamas and offshore the Florida southeast coast
with the surface ridge axis meandering about the southern
peninsula will maintain a deep layered moist southwest wind flow
over the forecast area. Later in the weekend into early next week
the upper ridge will re-build west over the peninsula and eastern
Gulf as the attendant surface ridge axis shifts north to the
central peninsula. Abundant low level moisture associated with the
southwest flow will allow scattered to numerous diurnal sea breeze
driven showers and storms across the forecast area each day
through early next week. The aforementioned prevailing south-
southwesterly flow each day is expected to hamper and impinge the
headway of the east coast sea breeze and facilitate the Gulf coast
sea breeze with the merging of the two near the I-95 corridor late
each day. Near normal max temps are expected in the low 90s inland
and upper 80s along the coast with lows in the mid 70s.

Tuesday...Layered high pressure ridge will extend from the
Atlantic into eastern Gulf of Mexico. Warmer mid level
temperatures will reside over the eastern Gulf of Mexico extending
into the Suwannee Valley. Swly flow will continue over the region
but with upstream "somewhat" drier conditions over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico the areal coverage of thunderstorms should be less
than during the weekend with isolated to widely scattered showers
anticipated over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers will continue at KSSI over through the early morning
hours before dissipating. Brief MVFR cigs are possible for the
Duval TAF sites as the shower/storm complex to the north shifts
to the southeast before dissipating. Light winds overnight will
become light southwest through early afternoon. The east coast sea
breeze is then forecast to move inland by mid afternoon with
numerous showers and storms developing and continuing through the
early evening. For now have VCTS with PROB30 to account for the
showers/storms expected. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in and
around showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
A series of boundaries will move Southeast toward area waters, and
stall over the next few days, while a high pressure ridge remains to
the Southeast. Scattered to numerous showers and storms can be
expected.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  73  91  73 /  70  50  60  30
SSI  90  75  87  77 /  70  40  50  30
JAX  93  73  91  75 /  70  50  60  30
SGJ  90  74  88  75 /  60  50  60  30
GNV  92  72  90  74 /  50  40  60  20
OCF  92  74  90  74 /  50  30  60  20

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Cordero/Kennedy/



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