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Area Forecast Discussion

381
FXUS62 KJAX 211907
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH JUST A LINE OF BROKEN CIRRUS AND SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-10 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE FL.

TONIGHT...WEAK/DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SLIDE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS SE GA/NE FL WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
N/NW WINDS TO 5-10 MPH BY MORNING AND THIS WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ANY FOG FORMATION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP LOW TEMPS ELEVATED
SLIGHTLY WITH MAINLY 50S INLAND AND 60S ALONG THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /WED-THU/...
DEEPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
INTO OUR REGION...BRINGING TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO BELOW LATE OCT
CLIMO. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE LOWER 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL FL UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY/I-10 INLAND CORRIDOR FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER
40S...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. LOWS ELSEWHERE IN NORTH
CENTRAL FL WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 50S...WITH UPPER 50S FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /FRI-TUE/...
LONG-TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DEEP-LAYERED
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...KEEPING A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE LOCALLY. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/YUCATAN PENINSULA REGION WILL EJECT
EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER ENTERS THE
ATLANTIC...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY ON
SATURDAY...REINFORCING A SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS. HIGHS FRI AND SAT
WILL CLIMB TO THE UPPER 70S INLAND...WITH MID 70S EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST.

RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A DEEPENING ONSHORE WIND REGIME
DEVELOPING. A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS MAY ADVECT ONSHORE ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST BEGINNING MON AFTERNOON...WITH THESE SHOWERS
POTENTIALLY SPREADING FURTHER INLAND BY TUES...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE POSSIBLE IN COASTAL NORTHEAST FL. TEMPS  WILL WARM TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO AT INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S. LOWS INLAND WILL WARM THROUGH THE 50S
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. LOWS AT THE COAST SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 60S BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING CLOSE TO 15-20
KNOTS AND WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
BUILD BRIEFLY TO 3-5 FT...AND SCEC HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. NORTH
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THU/FRI/SAT...WITH STILL A
POTENTIAL INCREASE IN ONSHORE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH STRENGTHENS AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SERN GOMEX POTENTIALLY MOVES THROUGH THE FL
STRAITS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR REGION BEHIND A DRY COLD
FRONT EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SPEEDS AT THE COAST NEAR 15 MPH AND 10-15 MPH INLAND. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO 30-35 PERCENT AT INLAND
LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY...AND 25-30 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARGINALLY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (GENERALLY 30-35
PERCENT) ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INLAND EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ERC VALUES ARE FAR FROM CRITICAL
VALUES...AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  50  75  47  72 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  59  74  55  72 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  56  77  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  64  77  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  56  80  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  58  82  53  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH







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