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Area Forecast Discussion

188
FXUS62 KJAX 281407
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1007 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Continued Hot with limited rain chances as High Pressure Ridge
just east of JAX over the coastal waters remains in place. The low
level ridge axis has shifted just slightly southward from
yesterday and extends across Central Florida from DAB, to north of
MCO and Tampa. This has set up a W/SW steering flow /1000-700mb/
across all of NE FL/SE GA and will allow for the Gulf Coast Sea
Breeze Front to push further inland...while East Coast Sea Breeze
Front will remain pinned a little closer to the I-95 Corridor and
St Johns River Basin. The KJAX Morning RAOB sounding showed
slightly more Precip Water /PWAT/ at 1.75 inches, so maybe just a
slight 10% increase in coverage of showers/storms as the sea
breezes move inland and meet across NE FL this afternoon, but
overall still only 20-30%, while drier airmass across SE GA will
keep rain chances at 10% or less. Storm motion will still be slow
and generally from the SW to NE at 10 mph or less. Temps aloft at
500 mb still fairly warm around -5C and still expect this to
reduce the severe weather threat with just a few strong storms
with gusty winds of 40-50 mph and frequent lightning. All of this
limited storm activity will allow for Max Temps to remain above
normal with Highs in the Mid/Upper 90s across inld NE FL and near
100 across inland SE GA with much convection to cool off temps and
expect Heat Indices to top out close to 105 degrees, but enough
drier air to mix down this afternoon will keep them below advisory
levels. The East Coast Sea Breeze will move inland just in time to
keep the beaches topping out in the lower/middle 90s.

Tonight...Any storm activity along the St Johns River Basin from
JAX southward around sunset where sea breeze mergers maximize will
end by late evening. Then expect Mostly Clear and Warm overnight
lows in the mid/upper 70s inland and near 80 along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR through the period with rainfall chances remaining at 20% or
less at TAF sites. Will continue with just VCSH in the KJAX, KVQQ
and KGNV until any storms begin to develop later this afternoon
and will address any specific timing in the 18z package.

&&

.MARINE...
Offshore flow at 10-15 knots will become S-SE with the sea breeze
this afternoon along the coast, then offshore again tonight around
15 knots. Seas Generally 2-4 ft. Slight chance of gusty winds from
storm outflows near the coast as convection forming a bit closer
to the I-95 corridor late this afternoon.

Rip Currents: Low Risk of Rips continue with minimal swells less
than 2 feet and surf/breakers around 1-2 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Through July 27th...Rankings below for driest July so Far
Jacksonville 1.69" (5th Driest)
Gainesville 1.48" (4th Driest)
Alma GA 1.06" (4th Driest)
St Simons Island 0.45" (All-time Driest)

Through 7/27...Rankings for Warmest July (based on Avg Temp)
Jacksonville 84.1F (14th Warmest)
Gainesville 83.4F (5th Warmest)
Alma GA 84.1F (3rd Warmest)
St. Simons Island 85.3F (2nd Warmest)

Through 7/27...Rankings for Warmest July (based on Avg Max Temp)
Jacksonville 95.5F (3rd Warmest)
Gainesville 94.3F (5th Warmest)
Alma GA 95.8F (2nd Warmest)
St Simons Island 93.2F (2nd Warmest)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 100  75  99  73 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  95  80  94  80 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  98  76  98  75 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  94  78  94  77 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  97  75  97  73 /  30  10  20  10
OCF  98  75  95  74 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Hess/Shashy/Shuler



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