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Area Forecast Discussion

782
FXUS62 KJAX 240240
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
940 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION DUE TO DEEP MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW. DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. STILL SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LEFTOVER ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INTERACTS
WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. BEST UPPER ENERGY AND DYNAMICS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
CLEARING WILL TRY TO DEVELOP BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY FILL IN
THE GAPS WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LLJ WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SO THE INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL NOT SUPPORT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN DEVELOPING STRATUS LAYER LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON MONDAY MORNING

&&

.AVIATION...THE MAIN ISSUES FOR TONIGHT WILL BE FOR IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO FADE AND LIFT NE. HAVE VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS TIL 04Z.
MOIST SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AT AROUND 06Z AND
CONTINUING INTO MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. STRONG SW WINDS JUST ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL WILL PRODUCE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS
BEGINNING 04Z-06Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS BY ABOUT 5 KNOTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND MODEL DATA. THIS RESULTS IN SPEEDS AROUND 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE
AND AROUND 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LET
NEARSHORE PORTION OF THE SCA EXPIRE THIS EVENING. OFFSHORE PORTION
OF THE SCA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW TO ALLOW TIME FOR
LINGERING HIGH SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK EXPECTED MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH A LINGERING LONG PERIOD EASTERLY
SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  77  53  58 /  90  30  20  50
SSI  66  76  59  60 /  80  30  40  60
JAX  67  81  58  63 /  30  30  50  60
SGJ  69  79  62  67 /  50  30  40  70
GNV  67  79  60  65 /  30  30  50  70
OCF  68  81  63  69 /  30  30  40  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/PETERSON/











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