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Area Forecast Discussion

279
FXUS62 KJAX 211819
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014


.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
TODAY HAS BROUGHT A DRY AIRMASS. A MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES INTO NE FL. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 60S AGAIN. PATCHY LATE NIGHT GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE OVER NE FL NEAR RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE GA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVE. MODELS INDICATE A SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT WHICH WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO MAINLY SE GA AND POSSIBLY  INTO EXTREME NE FL DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT.
AN OLD STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTL FL WILL ALSO COMBINE
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. STORMS WILL FADE DURING THE EVEING AS THE MID LEVEL
LIFT/SUPPORT PUSHES NE OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 90 ACROSS THE
INLAND AREAS AND MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER/MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROF WASHES OUT ALOFT BUT AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION AND WILL ENHANCE NELY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ACROSS NE
FL. MORE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG
THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. EXPECT AT LEAST BREEZY NE FLOW
AT 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM
JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INTO THE AREA FROM
NEW ENGLAND AND COMBINE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE GULF WHICH
WILL PRODUCE NOR`EASTER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH
BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW AT 15-25 MPH. MAX TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AS A COASTAL TROF
DEVELOPS AND STATIONARY RAIN BANDS MAY SET-UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FURTHER INLAND.

.LONG TERM...

THU INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A WET PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE E/SE AS THE
COASTAL TROF BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES INLAND. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND EXPECT RAINFALL ACTIVITY THAT WAS FOCUSED ALONG
THE COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL SHIFT INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK AND
BECOME MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ON
THU/FRI INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. PATCHY
FOG POSSBILE WITH MVFR VSBYS AT GNV AND VQQ 08Z-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING A MODERATE ONSHORE. HEADLINES POSSIBLE BY
MIDWEEK AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK BECOMING LOW RISK ON MONDAY AS SEAS
SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  87  65  87 /   0  30  30  10
SSI  70  85  72  83 /   0  30  30  30
JAX  66  88  69  86 /   0  10  10  30
SGJ  69  85  73  85 /   0  10  10  50
GNV  65  86  68  87 /   0  10  10  50
OCF  67  87  69  88 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/PETERSON/WALKER









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