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Area Forecast Discussion

715
FXUS62 KJAX 280603
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
203 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...High Rip Current Risk Through Monday...

.NEAR TERM /Today Through Tonight/...
High pressure ridge at the surface and aloft centered well N of
our forecast area...maintaining onshore flow pattern for us. Radar
has been showing coastal showers occasionally spreading over
eastern counties. Model guidance continues this pattern today with
slightly greater coverage E and S...and lesser coverage over
interior se GA. Mainly expecting scattered showers...but potential
for isolated afternoon t-storms. High temps will range from upper
80s coast to lower 90s well inland.

.SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday Night/...

Similar pattern as previous days with waves of showers and a few
isolated t-storms moving inland east to west through the day
under prevailing onshore flow. A gradually increase in convection
is expected each day as precipitable water (PWAT) values increase
to over 2" across our southern NE Florida zones Mon afternoon then
moisture expands northward with PWATs rising to near 2-2.2" across
NE FL Tuesday as low pressure AL99 tracks over the ESE Gulf of
Mexico with a mean trough axis extending northward from this
feature and across our Fl zones. Drier NNE flow will continue
across inland SE Ga which will keep rain chances much lower...but
there will be a better chance for a few stronger diurnally
enhanced thunderstorms across our Ga zones each afternoon/evening
due to a pool of cooler 500 mb temperatures of -7 to -8 lingering
across SC associated with a lingering mid/upper level low.

Temperatures will range from slightly above normal across inland
SE Ga with max temp values in the lower 90s and across the Suwanee
River Valley to slightly below normal in the mid 80s along the
coast. Low temperatures will generally range in the 70s with some
upper 60s possible across our NW Ga zones.

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Sunday/...

Forecast confidence remains low during this time frame given model
discrepancies with AL99 and its eventual track and intensity as
it enters the NNE GOMEX mid week. Both GFS/ECMWF model guidance
indicated a weak 500 mb trough deepening over the eastern CONUS
later in the week which could lift the storm to the NNE but the
timing of this trough and AL99`s structure will dictate the
resultant local sensible weather.

Continued to base the extended forecast on WPC/NHC collaborated
synoptic pattern. Indicated increasing rain chances later in the
week as a trough axis between AL99 in the eastern GOMEX and AL91
offshore of the SE Atlantic coast lifts slowly northward across
the local forecast area and potentially lingers into next weekend
as the aforementioned weak mid level trough axis helps to drift
AL99 NNE across the local area. Anticipated waves of diurnally
enhanced showers and isolated thunderstorm activity with the
highest rain chances across NE Florida and coastal SE Ga Wed/Thu
then the axis of higher rain chances progressively shifting
northward across SE Ga into the weekend as the surface low drifts
across the deep south. Temperatures will hover within a few
degrees of either side of climo with max temps in the upper
80s/near 90 and lows in the 70s.

&&

.Aviation...Onshore flow pattern will continue next 24 hrs. While
generally VFR conditions are expected...coastal showers will
occasionally move inland near TAF sites and could be associated
with brief MVFR conditions. Did not include Tempo groups for lower
CIGs in latest TAFs...but updates may be needed when MVFR
potential increases. Appears better chances for this at KCRG and
KSGJ sites. Also just went VCSH in TAFs due to low expected
coverage.

&&

.Marine...With high pressure north of the area and low pressure
well south...onshore flow pattern will continue over our waters
through Monday. Model guidance keeps winds just below exercise
caution levels...but suggest increased seas due to easterly
swell. Models suggest formation of weak low pressure along a
surface trough over se GA waters Tuesday...moving east Wed/Thu.

Rip Currents...Based on latest guidance...have extended high rip
current risk for ne FL coast through Monday...and expanded it
northward to include se GA coast given increasing swell and early
afternoon low tides. Extreme caution is urged.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  73  92  72 /  20  10  20   0
SSI  88  77  87  77 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  91  74  88  75 /  30  20  30  30
SGJ  88  76  86  77 /  30  30  40  40
GNV  91  73  90  74 /  40  10  30  10
OCF  92  74  90  75 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Flagler-St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk from 5 AM EDT early this morning through
     Monday afternoon for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...None.
&&

$$

Wolf/Enyedi



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