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Area Forecast Discussion

698
FXUS62 KJAX 300824
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
424 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...TURNING MUCH COLDER AND WINDY THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING EDGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO INLD SE GA JUST SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN AND THE FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE FADED
AND AT MOST A SPRINKLE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
NE FL...FLOW IS STILL LIGHT SOUTHWEST AND TEMPS REMAIN MILD IN THE
60S AND THE LIGHT/MOIST FLOW OFF THE NORTHEAST GOMEX MAY TRIGGER
SOME LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG BUT VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 1
MILE...SO NO SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG EXPECTED.

TODAY...FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD AND WILL BECOME
ORIENTED MORE NE-SW AND WILL STRETCH FROM GAINESVILLE TO
JACKSONVILLE TO THE SE GA COASTAL WATERS BY MID-DAY. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LIFT IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTH
GOMEX COAST AND INTO THE NE FL/SE GA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP TO
RE-IGNITE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACRS NE FL AND
COASTAL SE GA AS MID LEVEL COOLING AND INSTABILITY TAKES PLACE AND
RE-ACTS TO DIURNAL HEATING. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 30%
(WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE) BUT SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE PROJECTING SOME HIGHER POPS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JAX-GNV...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...AND NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY OF THE ISOLD STORM
ACTIVITY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND SKIES
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY AND WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH DIURNAL
HEATING TO HELP WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THEY PUSH INTO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS NE FL...BUT THE COOLER MID/UPPER 70S EXPECTED ACRS SE GA.

TONIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY/LIFT ALOFT SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLC
THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END SLOWLY FROM WEST TO
EAST AND WILL BE MAINLY IN THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER THE INLAND AREAS. SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN WITH LOWS IN THE 45-55
RANGE INLAND AND 55-65 RANGE ALONG THE COAST/ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.

.SHORT TERM /FRI-SAT/...

FRIDAY...TRANSITION DAY AHEAD OF RE-INFORCING COLD AIRMASS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EXPECT A COOLER AND DRIER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

HALLOWEEN EVENING WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
60S EARLY EVENING FALLING INTO THE 50S BY LATE EVENING. SKIES WILL
BE CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT INITIALLY...BUT THIS WILL
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A STRONG EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT WILL DELIVER A TASTE OF WINTER
THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL TRAIL THE
FRONT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SATURDAY TO GET OFF TO A RATHER
BRISK START. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA...MOST LIKELY NEAR THE COAST AND ALONG THE ST
JOHNS RIVER WHERE MIXING WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THE INCREASE IN WINDS
WILL BEGIN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION...SENDING WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN
INTO THE 30S FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS INLAND AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 AND MOST LIKELY NEVER WILL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY
EVENING. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S
INLAND TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS SATURDAY MORNING...WIND CHILLS WILL STILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RECORD LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING ARE GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COLD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER
STANDARDS...WE WILL LIKELY COME UP JUST SHY OF SETTING ANY
RECORDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUN-WED/...
THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS THOUGH WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER SO IT
WILL NOT FEEL NEARLY AS CHILLY AS SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
INLAND.

ONSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
TEMPS WILL ALSO MODERATE CONSIDERABLY AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LONE SHOWER OR TWO NEAR THE COAST BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS WAY TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE PRECIP OVER LAND AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 80S
ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL GO FROM BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT TO ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MIXTURE OF SCATTERED VFR MID/HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION. THE
CURRENT LIGHT SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY TO PUSH IN SOME IFR CIGS AT KGNV BTWN 09-12Z SO HAVE
LEFT IN TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. OTHERWISE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY IS 20-30% CHANCE OF AN AFTN/EVE SHOWER AT FL TAF SITES AND
HAVE KEPT CURRENT VCSH IN TAF SET...WHILE THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDER THE THREAT REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF TAF FORECAST.
SKIES STILL EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SLOW CLEARING VFR SKIES LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. A
SHARPER INCREASE TO N/NW 15-20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH SEAS MAYBE
PUSHING 3-5 FT...BUT STILL SHY OF ANY ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE.

LONG RANGE MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS WITH EVEN SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  48  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  75  58  72  47 /  30  20   0   0
JAX  80  54  75  45 /  30  30   0   0
SGJ  78  59  74  50 /  30  30  10   0
GNV  81  53  75  45 /  30  30   0   0
OCF  82  55  77  46 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/







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