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Area Forecast Discussion

806
FXUS62 KJAX 170913
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
513 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING UPPER SYSTEM OVER WRN GULF OF MEXICO. ONSHORE FLOW
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WILL HAVE LOW POPS ALONG COAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY...DRY ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS NEAR COAST...AND WILL MAINTAIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY GENERALLY
FOR AREAS E OF I-95. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR
COAST AND SCTRL GA TO MID 70S NCTRL FL.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDINESS INCREASES AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. SHOULD SEE PRECIP SHIELD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NE GULF
OF MEX TOWARD 12Z FRI. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S SCTRL GA
TO MID 60S NE FL COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...00Z MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE CUTS
OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT MIGRATES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...LIKELY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
AND A POSSIBLE MCS OVER THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY EARLY FRI. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED SOUTHEAST OF
COASTAL LOUISIANA...AND THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FL BIG BEND ON FRIDAY EVENING. 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC...AND THE 00Z NAM BRINGS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. WE EXPECT A SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTION TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. STRONG
COASTAL CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO ENHANCE BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT MAY
POTENTIALLY TRAIN INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. GIVEN SATURATED CONDITIONS...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING ON
FRI AND ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT IS INCREASING FOR OUR FL COUNTIES AND
COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED
MUCH OF NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES EXPECTED. WE WILL LIKELY
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GA IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME A CONCERN OVER OUR FL COUNTIES
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL ON FRI
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SURGE INTO THE MID 70S.
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER OUR FL COUNTIES...AND A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES INTO THE FL BIG BEND. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. LOWS FRI
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA...TO NEAR 60 ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL PHASE OVER OUR REGION
EARLY ON SATURDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN COASTAL LOCATIONS...AND THE AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY PEAK LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LINGERING
AFTERNOON RAINS AND ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S
ALMOST REGION-WIDE...WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL
CLIMO. RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE COULD LINGER INTO EARLY
SUN FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S
INLAND...RANGING TO NEAR 60 AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
STACKED CYCLONE ONLY SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
ON EASTER SUN...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION
DESPITE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS INLAND MAY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY TUES. ZONAL
FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT ACROSS GA TOWARDS
MIDWEEK...AND LEFT ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN FOR WED IN
SOUTHEAST GA.

&&

.AVIATION...CIG FORECAST A BIT CHALLENGING WITH AREAS OF BKN020
OVER LAND...WITH HIGHER CIGS OFF COAST.  HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A BREAK IN LOWER CIGS LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTN...WITH INCREASE
IN CIGS BKN020-030 LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SHOWED THIS TREND
IN LATEST TAFS.  HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER AREA SHOULD SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE
FORCE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FEET
NEARSHORE AND 7-9 FEET OFFSHORE. ONLY A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STATUS IN THE GEORGIA WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTHEAST FL WATERS ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SLOWLY APPROACHES OUR REGION. AS THIS
LOW MOVES OVER THE FL WATERS...NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRI NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SAT AS WINDS TRANSITION FROM
NE TO NORTHERLY. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ON SUNDAY...AND A LONG FETCH OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL RESULT IN SEAS OFFSHORE
PEAKING AT 8-11 FEET ON SUN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY OFFSHORE BEFORE
WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TUES.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW/LONG NORTHEAST
FETCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  55  62  51 /  10  40  80  80
SSI  67  60  65  56 /  20  50  90  90
JAX  71  62  71  58 /  20  60  90  90
SGJ  71  66  72  61 /  20  60  90  90
GNV  75  62  73  58 /  10  70  90  90
OCF  77  63  75  61 /  20  70  90  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

WOLF/NELSON







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