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Area Forecast Discussion

093
FXUS62 KJAX 200224
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
924 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE (1013 MILLIBARS)
POSITIONED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST....WITH A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT POSITIONED EAST OF THIS FEATURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE (1026 MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES STATES. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE ARKLATEX WAS PROGRESSING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WAS INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION...WITH A
SHIELD OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE OCMULGEE RIVER. THE
EVENING SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE DISPLAYED A VERY DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 825-700 MILLIBARS (6000-10000 FT)...AND THUS IT WILL TAKE
TIME TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES INTO OUR
REGION. WE CONFINED POPS TO LOCATIONS MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10...WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE OCMULGEE/ALTAMAHA RIVERS. DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WILL BE LIGHT. THE HI-RES HRRR MODEL DEPICTS FOG FORMATION
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL OVERNIGHT...BUT WE ARE DISCOUNTING
THIS DUE TO THICK MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER THAT HAS
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MID 40S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST. SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL DESPITE EXTENSIVE MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THICKENING
MID CLOUD DECK OVERNIGHT WILL INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL
MAINTAIN VCSH AT SSI FOR POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES
MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND SEAS AVERAGING AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. NO CHANGES NEEDED
FOR THE ROUTINE EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND IN
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  61  48  61 /  50  40  20  40
SSI  51  62  51  63 /  30  20  20  30
JAX  48  68  53  68 /  20  10  10  30
SGJ  51  68  57  69 /  10  10  10  30
GNV  46  71  55  71 /  10   0  10  50
OCF  46  72  56  73 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/SHULER/







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