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Area Forecast Discussion

524
FXUS64 KHUN 202311 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
611 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...88-D RETURNS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
OCCURRING. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED TO BE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
TONIGHT. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION
OCCURRING BY TUESDAY MORNING. BASED UPON PREVIOUS TRENDING THE LAST
FEW NIGHTS...WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF LATE NIGHT FOG ACROSS THE
VALLEY AREAS TONIGHT.

IT WILL BE BASICALLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK WITH A NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE. THIS WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL KEEP SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

A THIRD DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z SATURDAY AND 00Z
SUNDAY. THE BROAD RIDGE AXIS AT SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST TIME FRAME.
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO GUIDANCE TEMPS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING LEAVING A CLEAR SKY AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW. RIVER VALLEY
FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER 06Z. LIKE MONDAY
MORNING, THE FG IS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KMSL WITH POSSIBLE IFR
CONDS FROM 09-13Z. ATTM, HAVE LEFT THE FG OUT OF THE KHSV FORECAST
PENDING FURTHER EVALUATION. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW TAKING PLACE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND VFR WX.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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