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Area Forecast Discussion

427
FXUS64 KHUN 240000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/
CLEAR SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION...
COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE DEEP SOUTH. A FRONT THAT PASSED ACROSS THE
REGION YESTERDAY HAS BECOME PRETTY DIFFUSE...EXTENDING FROM SW
LOUISIANA...ALONG THE GULF COAST AND EAST OF GEORGIA COAST. MID
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 MPH.

A RATHER ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WAS NOTED
ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN. A TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH CONVECTION
FORMING ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING N-S OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER
TO THE WEST...AN ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.
ONE SUCH UPPER DISTURBANCE/SPEED MAX MOVING EASTWARD UNDER A TROUGH
WEST OF THE INTL DATE LINE...COULD BE A FACTOR IN OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
4-CORNERS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH IT IS LATE
APRIL...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S (THE RUNNING AVERAGE THIS TIME OF
YEAR IS IN THE LOWER 50S). THURSDAY SHOULD MAKE UP FOR THE CHILLY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS WARMING HIGHER THAN AVERAGE INTO THE LOWER 80S
(NORMALS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S). CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL INCREASE AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM OUT WEST APPROACHES. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP
INCREASE LOWER LEVEL HUMIDITIES THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. GENERAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING THU
EVENING...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT-TIME...AS THE CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE AREA. RAIN
WILL END FROM WEST-EAST FRI MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING TO
THE EAST. WILL HOLD ON TO A DRY AND NICE FORECAST...AT LEAST FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...AND IN THE LOWER 80S SAT.

A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT COULD PRODUCE MORE NOTABLE IMPACTS ON OUR
WEATHER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SW DURING THE WEEKEND...THEN
SLOWING ITS PROGRESS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS LOW FROM EXTENDED
GUIDANCE SHOULD BECOME PART OF A REX BLOCK FEATURE NEXT WEEK...WITH
THE BLOCK`S HIGH ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL CANADA. A STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW EAST OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE MOISTURE/INSTABILITIES WITH
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURNING ON SUN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS WILL OCCUR MON AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY IN
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS A QLCS LIKE FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE CELLS WERE TO FORM AHEAD/WITH THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS. PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...ALONG
WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF SYSTEM SPEED ALSO SPELLS A POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND
FLOODING. MORE DETAILS WITH THIS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN LATER
FORECASTS.

RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY WIND DOWN DURING NEXT WED. THE QUICKER GFS WAS
HINTING AT MUCH COLDER AIR (YES WITH GFS MODEL INDICATED SNOW NEAR
OUR AREA BY WED MORNING/AFTERNOON)...WHILE THE EC WAS TAKING A
SIMILAR BUT SLOWER TREND. THE CURRENT 6-10/8-14 DAY OUTLOOK BOTH
SHOW COOLER TO MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND A WETTER PERIOD
TO START THE MONTH OF MAY. OH JOY...

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR/SKC CONDS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH HSV/MSL THRU EARLY
THUR MORNING...WITH NNE FLOW ARND 5 KTS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER
TO ENE. CI/CS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BEFORE DAWN AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WITH BKN HIGH-LEVEL CIGS ANTICIPATED BY
24/18Z. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALSO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCT CU ARND 5 KFT BY THUR AFTN. WINDS TOMORROW WILL
INCREASE TO ARND 10 KTS FROM SSW BY 14Z...WITH FLOW EXPECTED TO BACK
TO SSE AND INCREASE TO 12G20 KTS BY 18Z. BOTH LLWS AND VCTS/CB WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN 06Z ISSUANCE OF TAFS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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