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Area Forecast Discussion

788
FXUS64 KHUN 031739 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1239 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1011 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED EARLIER THIS MORNING
BY A 30-40 KT 850 MB JET STREAK OVER NORTHERN AL/GA. THIS ACTIVITY
BROUGHT A QUICK 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN
MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN
TENNESSEE.

THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE PUSHED EAST OF THOSE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...MORE
MODERATE RAIN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE LITTLE
BASED ON CURRENT AND PROGGED UPPER LEVEL WINDS. MODELS DO KEEP SOME
WIND ENERGY AROUND ALOFT (~ 30 KTS). HOWEVER...IF NO INSOLATION IS
REALIZED...WHICH LOOKS DOUBTFUL...STRONGER STORMS MAY ONLY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT...AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FALLS OVER SATURATED GROUND.

THIS PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...THE CHAOTIC AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY CREATING RATHER DIFFICULT FLYING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE TO BRING PERIODS
OF RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES, THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE
VARIABLE AND HAVE INCLUDED EPISODIC MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THIS AFTN AT
BOTH LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING
WITH MVFR DOMINANT SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TOWARD MORNING IN HEAVIER RAINFALL/STORMS.

15

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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