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Area Forecast Discussion

958
FXUS64 KHUN 011114
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
614 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 146 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

AT 06Z, TEMPERATURES WERE COOLING INTO THE L-M60S IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF SRN TN AND NERN AL, WITH U60S-L70S FOUND IN NWRN AL AND
URBAN AREAS. NORTHERLY BREEZES HAVE CALMED DOWN WITH A CLEAR-MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. CI DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TS WERE STREAMING EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER BUT MAY TEND
TO THIN OUT WITH TIME.

A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER FORECAST IS FORESEEN THRU DAY 4 AS NWRLY FLOW
PERSISTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE 5H SITS ACROSS TX AND MIGRATES INTO THE
SWRN U.S. THE PATTERN THEN SUPPORTS SOME RAIN/TS POTENTIAL BY MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS SHOULD PROVIDE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS STILL SEASONABLY HOT IN THE U80S-L90S. TUE MAY BE THE WARMEST
DAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROF DRIVES EASTWARD THRU THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE EVOLUTION OF
THE WAVE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES IN THE
PLAINS TO SORT OUT. THUS, I`M NOT SOLD ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
DYNAMIC FIELDS JUST YET TO YIELD GREAT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
IN EITHER CASE, WILL STAY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED BLENDED GUIDANCE. THIS
BRINGS THE GREATEST POP ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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