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Area Forecast Discussion
376 FXUS64 KHUN 232027 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 327 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 .DISCUSSION... The synoptic pattern currently in place over much of the southeast will generally persist through the weekend. Strong mid-level ridging (500 hpa heights ranging from 592-594 dam) is expected to linger over the region with only a couple minor perturbations in the pattern as some a couple vort maxes shift across the TN Valley tomorrow and Saturday.While these vort maxes could support a couple showers or a thunderstorm tonight/tomorrow, the main concern for the next few days will continue to be the heat index flirting with advisory criteria. For the rest of today and through tonight... current obs are showing dew points slightly mixing down over the last couple of hours as the inversion from this morning is breaking down. With temps currently ranging from the mid 90s west to upper 80s further east in the higher elevation, and dew points holding steady or lowering, do not anticipate heat advisory conditions being met over a widespread area. Later tonight and through the early morning, a weak surface boundary dipping south may try and bring some minor (but brief) upper level support for shower/thunderstorm development. High res ensemble guidance shows isolated to scattered showers/storms following the east- west moisture gradient which would favor the central and west part of the CWA. Will hold pops only around 30 percent for the north and western portion of the CWA given the overall lack of mid level moisture. For the rest of the weekend... model soundings are indicating PW increasing slightly for tomorrow afternoon and into Saturday, mainly favoring the western CWA. While there will be a chance of a shower or storm during the afternoons/evenings the main concern will again be the heat. Heat index across the northern and western CWA will again approach the 100 degree mark with isolated areas reaching near 105. Not anticipating a heat advisory at the moment, however. Through mid week... we will be keeping our eyes on a frontal boundary shifting through the TN Valley and potentially stalling near the CWA. This scenario, which the globals models are hinting at, could give us some needed relief from the warm temps and lack of rain. Barron && .AVIATION... (Issued 1222 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016) For 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Southwesterly winds will become more westerly and gusty after 24/16Z at both TAF sites on Friday as a cold front stalls over northern Alabama. Left out vicinity -TSRA for now, some may be needed after 24/18Z. KTW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Huntsville 73 95 74 95 / 30 30 20 20 Shoals 74 95 74 96 / 30 30 20 20 Vinemont 72 94 73 94 / 20 30 20 20 Fayetteville 71 94 70 93 / 30 30 10 20 Albertville 71 94 72 93 / 20 30 10 30 Fort Payne 70 93 70 94 / 20 30 10 20 && .HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.