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Area Forecast Discussion

066
FXUS64 KHUN 231116 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
616 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
 (Issued 316 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016)
Very quiet and mild night ongoing across the cntrl TN valley this
early Mon morning, as an Omega Block pattern remains firmly in
control of the wx pattern over the Lower MS Valley/Midwest states.
High pressure at the sfc also remains layered over much of the ern
CONUS, and little change is xpcted with this trend as the new work
week begins based on the latest model suites. With a strong upper
ridge pattern just to the w, a gradual warming trend looks to begin
over the next couple of days, as the upper ridge translates slowly
ewd. Afternoon highs Today mainly in the mid 80s may rebound further
into the upper 80s by the Tue/Wed time frame. Overnight lows will
also show a slight warming trend, with early morning lows Tomorrow
predom in the mid 50s before climbing into the lower 60s early Wed
and mid 60s Thu morning.

Any rainfall or showers/tstms returning to the forecast doesn`t look
very favorable thru mid week, with the upper ridge pattern over the
SE states helping to deflect any energy/moisture to the w/n. The
latter half of the model guidance does hint at the upper ridge
feature weakening/shifting to the e starting Thu, with the sfc high
displaced just off the mid/srn Atlantic Coast. This should at least
help with some moisture flowing back into the region from the s. The
flow pattern out of the wsw should also become a bit more active as
weak upper disturbances begin to traverse across parts of the area.
All of this should result in some chc for showers/tstms starting Thu
and continuing into the weekend period, although for the most part
rain chances will be fairly low.

Overall temps look to remain seasonably warm heading toward the end
of the work week and into the weekend, with most of the region under
the influence of the Subtropical ridge. Afternoon highs mainly in
the mid/upper 80s look to prevail while overnight lows predom hold
in the mid 60s.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
For 12Z TAFs:
VFR weather, and generally clear skies should continue across
Northern Alabama and portions of Southern Middle Tennessee. Surface
high pressure just north of the region should control the general
weather situation. Light and variable winds this morning will become
NW 5-10 kt during the late morning the afternoon. Winds again should
become light and variable after sunset this evening.

RSB

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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at weather.gov/huntsville.



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