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Area Forecast Discussion

716
FXUS64 KHUN 231723 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1123 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1007 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SURFACE LOW
OVER THE ARKLAMISS...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST ENTERING
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHWARD AND APPEARS TO HAVE JUST REACHED THE
FLORIDA...ALABAMA BORDER. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS WARM FROM WILL
BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...HOWEVER AREA RADARS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EXTENDING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MEANWHILE...TO THE SOUTH...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN EXTEND EASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER IF THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE THREAT...MODELS SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH A VERY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL...SO SEE NO REASON TO
GO AGAINST THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH PRETTY MUCH NO
INSTABILITY...UPDRAFTS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. MEANWHILE...EVEN
WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA...LITTLE MIXING WILL
OCCUR GIVEN THE INVERSION...SO THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE UNABLE TO
REACH THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS MINIMAL AT
THIS POINT. WITH THAT SAID...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOCATION
OF THE WARM FRONT.

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE WINDS...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO
THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE BRIEF STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH THE
KNOCK TREES DOWN...WITH THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS.

CONCERNING THE FORECAST...MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS MAX
TEMPS AND HOURLIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE ENTIRE AREA SEEING RAINFALL
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. UPDATES ARE OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPANDING TO THE EAST OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS AROUND SUNSET. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DURING
THE EVENING...BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
PREVAILING TS. GUSTY WINDS...EXCEEDING 20KTS WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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