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Area Forecast Discussion

160
FXUS64 KHUN 280537 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1237 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 920 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF A CDFNT MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION. THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE FRONT IS NEARING THE KY/TN BORDER. SFC CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOC/W THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY/LIFT PROVIDED BY A DIGGING MID-LVL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SHOWER/STORM PRODUCTION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC SOLAR HEATING HAS NOW CEASED, CONTINUED
BOUNDARY LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE W-SW WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE
TO FEED INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE LATEST HRRR/RAP MODELS SUGGEST THIS IS A REASONABLE SCENARIO AND
POPS WERE INCREASED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL LIMIT
OF DEVELOPMENT TO THE SW...AND POPS WERE LOWERED JUST A LITTLE FOR
FAR SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE PARCELS WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF BUOYANCY
ONCE ALOFT...WITH ML CAPES ~2-3 KJ/KG AND MUCAPES ~3-4 KJ/KG. SHEAR
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO A MID-LVL JET
MAX...AND MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IN SOUTHERN
TN AND NERN AL. DMG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT,
ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL AND VERY FREQUENT LTG WOULD ACCOMPANY THOSE
STORMS. DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT MID-LVL CAP ~750 MB, STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE CONFINED TO A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR JUST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE LATEST TIMING ESTIMATE PLACES STORMS IN OUR TN COUNTIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT-1 AM, IN HUNTSVILLE/SHOALS/SCOTTSBORO AROUND 1-2 AM
AND CULLMAN/ALBERTVILLE BY ABOUT 3-4 AM CDT.

UPDATES OUT MOMENTARILY.

KDW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSTMS IS APPROACHING NORTHERN AL
CURRENTLY. VCSH LIKELY AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU ~0800-0900Z.
HOWEVER, WILL NOT INCLUDE CIG/VIS IMPACTS AT TAF SITES DUE TO THE
SCTD COVERAGE OF PRECIP. IF A HVY PRECIP CORE AFFECTED EITHER TAF
SITE...BRIEF IFR/MVFR VIS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WSHFT ASSOC/W A CDFNT
FROPA WILL TAKE PLACE AT KMSL/KHSV ARND 08-09Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AFTER 14-15Z...THEN ABATE BY 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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