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Area Forecast Discussion

638
FXUS64 KHUN 281739
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1239 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1129 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
A MCV THAT FORMED LAST NIGHT LIFTED N/NE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AS OF 16Z. THIS HELPED TO
SPARK SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER NE ALABAMA AND THE MCV IS PULLING
AWAY FROM THE REGION. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SHOWERS ARE STILL SLOWLY
MOVING NNE ACROSS NE AL AND A BATCH OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AL ARE
RIDING UP THE AL/MS BORDER AND WILL MOVE INTO NW AL IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

CLOUD COVER WAS ABLE TO SCATTER OUT IN NW AL THIS MORNING BUT THE TN
VALLEY IS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY AT THIS TIME. HOW WELL WE ARE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT OF ANY CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN PLAY A ROLE IN OUR
INSTABILITY. OUR DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...AS WELL AS ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM
PREVIOUS SHOWERS/CONVECTION AND PEAK HEATING. ON WATER VAPOR THERE
IS A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN MS
THAT LOOKS TO BE THE CUT OFF FOR ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND SHOW
DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING IN NE AL WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING
WESTWARD AS THE ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL AL MOVES INTO THE REGION.
INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL OF THESE
FACTORS.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK THEREFORE SHEAR VALUES ARE AS WELL BUT
CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST UP TO 1500 J/KG. PWATS ARE HIGH ~1.7 INCHES
AND WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY NW AL...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE
FLOODING. HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE...VERY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT AND WILL LEAVE CONDITIONS IN
VFR CATEGORY WITH A FEW/SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 2KFT CONTINUING TO
LINGER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH PEAK
HEATING WILL HELP TO KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS UP TO 20-30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OF THE STORMS TODAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TONIGHT...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP WITH CIGS IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO IFR BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN
THE TIMING OR DURATION AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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