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Area Forecast Discussion
994 FXUS64 KHUN 230903 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 403 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .DISCUSSION... Seasonably mild conditions prevailed across the greater Tennessee Valley this morning, with somewhat drier air in place. A weak cold front that moved across the region on Sunday was hung up stationary from the OK/TX Red River to southern GA. Surface high pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast was bringing a light easterly flow over this region. A general setup of troughing west and ridging east could roughly describe the mid/upper level pattern over the greater North American domain. This basic configuration should hold into early next week, as surface and upper level ridging over the northwest Atlantic basin - aka the Bermuda high remain more/less in place. A more complex pattern was realized in the polar jet, with a series of systems moving southward from AK then to the east mostly near and north of the US/Canadian border. Closer to the forecast area, the infrared and fog/low cloud satellite view indicated clouds (indicative of upper level systems) moving to the NE from west of the Big Bend region to the Mid South. This will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies today. Despite the presence of upper ridging, the approach of these disturbances should bring increasing clouds with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. More sun peeking through should help highs rise to around 90 - or close to seasonable norms for this time of year. Any convection that forms should fade this evening with lows around 70. Not quite a repeat performance is forecast for the mid week. A weak area of convergence to our east should bring somewhat higher rain chances for our eastern areas Wed afternoon. Thursday`s forecast should be similar to todays with only isolated rain chances across the area. IN rain-free areas, high temperatures should rise into the lower 90s for the remainder of the work week. Heat index values with dewpoints returning into the lower 70s could rise into the 100 to 105 degree range for the mid/latter portions of the week. Not enough of the areas at 105 degrees (mainly far NW Alabama) for heat advisory considerations this go around. A weak cold front will move across the area late Fri, resulting mainly in a wind shift to the north then northeast for the weekend and slightly lower dewpoints (closer to 70). Rain chances also look to be slimmer for the very late week and early next week with the somewhat drier air in place. Also during this time, the tropics and Cape Verde based systems could be nearing the North American domain early next week. We`ll keep monitoring this situation, way too soon to go for tropical systems this far our... RSB && .AVIATION... (Issued 1213 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016) For 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period at both HSV and MSL. Mid to high clouds are expected to move back into the taf sites between 08z-11z. Expect broken conditions to continue until between the 02z-03z time frame on Tuesday evening. A few-scattered cirrus should prevail under VFR conditions after the 02z-03z time frame until the end of the forecast period. TT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Huntsville 89 70 92 73 / 20 10 20 10 Shoals 90 71 92 73 / 20 10 20 10 Vinemont 88 69 91 72 / 20 10 30 10 Fayetteville 87 69 89 71 / 20 10 20 10 Albertville 88 70 90 72 / 20 10 30 10 Fort Payne 88 69 89 70 / 20 10 30 10 && .HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.