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Area Forecast Discussion

376
FXUS64 KHUN 232027
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
327 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The synoptic pattern currently in place over much of the southeast
will generally persist through the weekend. Strong mid-level ridging
(500 hpa heights ranging from 592-594 dam) is expected to linger over
the region with only a couple minor perturbations in the pattern as
some a couple vort maxes shift across the TN Valley tomorrow and
Saturday.While these vort maxes could support a couple showers or a
thunderstorm tonight/tomorrow, the main concern for the next few days
will continue to be the heat index flirting with advisory criteria.

For the rest of today and through tonight... current obs are showing
dew points slightly mixing down over the last couple of hours as the
inversion from this morning is breaking down. With temps currently
ranging from the mid 90s west to upper 80s further east in the higher
elevation, and dew points holding steady or lowering, do not
anticipate heat advisory conditions being met over a widespread
area. Later tonight and through the early morning, a weak surface
boundary dipping south may try and bring some minor (but brief)
upper level support for shower/thunderstorm development. High res
ensemble guidance shows isolated to scattered showers/storms
following the east- west moisture gradient which would favor the
central and west part of the CWA. Will hold pops only around 30
percent for the north and western portion of the CWA given the
overall lack of mid level moisture.

For the rest of the weekend... model soundings are indicating PW
increasing slightly for tomorrow afternoon and into Saturday, mainly
favoring the western CWA. While there will be a chance of a shower or
storm during the afternoons/evenings the main concern will again be
the heat. Heat index across the northern and western CWA will again
approach the 100 degree mark with isolated areas reaching near 105.
Not anticipating a heat advisory at the moment, however.

Through mid week... we will be keeping our eyes on a frontal
boundary shifting through the TN Valley and potentially stalling
near the CWA. This scenario, which the globals models are hinting at,
could give us some needed relief from the warm temps and lack of
rain.

Barron

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1222 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016)
For 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period.
Southwesterly winds will become more westerly and gusty after 24/16Z
at both TAF sites on Friday as a cold front stalls over northern
Alabama. Left out vicinity -TSRA for now, some may be needed after
24/18Z.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    73  95  74  95 /  30  30  20  20
Shoals        74  95  74  96 /  30  30  20  20
Vinemont      72  94  73  94 /  20  30  20  20
Fayetteville  71  94  70  93 /  30  30  10  20
Albertville   71  94  72  93 /  20  30  10  30
Fort Payne    70  93  70  94 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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