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Area Forecast Discussion

528
FXUS64 KHUN 081715 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1115 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 954 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS BROUGHT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND VIRGA TO
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE HAS PUSHED SE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...MAINLY DUE TO MORNING SUNSHINE AND NEUTRAL ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL NEAR MEMPHIS AREA.

DUE TO THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...REMOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING.
LOWERED CLOUD COVER SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...THINK THAT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DECK WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
EVERYWHERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON WILL THE
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AND IN WHAT FORM IT WILL START.

MOST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ISENTROPIC LIFT FIELDS IN THE THAT
REGION OF THE SOUNDING SHOW MAINLY DOWNGLIDE THROUGH ~ 3 PM/4 PM.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 MB AND 700 MB FOR SOME
VIRGA...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER TEENS...THINK THIS WILL BE TOO DRY TO
ALLOW IT TO REACH THE GROUND. BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM...TEMPERATURES
COULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NEAR AND NORTH OF THE TN RIVER.
IN THIS TIME FRAME...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS IN TN AND PUSHES INTO NW AL
AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE IN
TIMING. SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER...WILL KEEP MAINLY ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWER END VFR CONDITIONS AT HSV AND
MSL DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE ADDED IN A
MENTION OF -RASN FOR MSL AT 21Z AND AT AROUND 22Z FOR HSV. AFTER A
FEW HOURS OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH A CEILING ON THE LOWER END OF THE
VFR RANGE...WILL BRING BACK IN A -SHSN MENTION AT HSV AND MSL FROM
09Z-18Z TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP CEILINGS NEAR THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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