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Area Forecast Discussion

994
FXUS64 KHUN 230903
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
403 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Seasonably mild conditions prevailed across the greater Tennessee
Valley this morning, with somewhat drier air in place. A weak cold
front that moved across the region on Sunday was hung up stationary
from the OK/TX Red River to southern GA. Surface high pressure along
the Mid Atlantic coast was bringing a light easterly flow over this
region.

A general setup of troughing west and ridging east could roughly
describe the mid/upper level pattern over the greater North American
domain. This basic configuration should hold into early next week, as
surface and upper level ridging over the northwest Atlantic basin -
aka the Bermuda high remain more/less in place. A more complex
pattern was realized in the polar jet, with a series of systems
moving southward from AK then to the east mostly near and north of
the US/Canadian border.

Closer to the forecast area, the infrared and fog/low cloud satellite
view indicated clouds (indicative of upper level systems) moving to
the NE from west of the Big Bend region to the Mid South. This will
result in partly to mostly cloudy skies today. Despite the presence
of upper ridging, the approach of these disturbances should bring
increasing clouds with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. More sun peeking through should help highs rise to
around 90 - or close to seasonable norms for this time of year. Any
convection that forms should fade this evening with lows around 70.

Not quite a repeat performance is forecast for the mid week. A weak
area of convergence to our east should bring somewhat higher rain
chances for our eastern areas Wed afternoon. Thursday`s forecast
should be similar to todays with only isolated rain chances across
the area. IN rain-free areas, high temperatures should rise into
the lower 90s for the remainder of the work week. Heat index values
with dewpoints returning into the lower 70s could rise into the 100
to 105 degree range for the mid/latter portions of the week. Not
enough of the areas at 105 degrees (mainly far NW Alabama) for heat
advisory considerations this go around.

A weak cold front will move across the area late Fri, resulting
mainly in a wind shift to the north then northeast for the weekend
and slightly lower dewpoints (closer to 70). Rain chances also look
to be slimmer for the very late week and early next week with the
somewhat drier air in place. Also during this time, the tropics and
Cape Verde based systems could be nearing the North American domain
early next week. We`ll keep monitoring this situation, way too soon
to go for tropical systems this far our...

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1213 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016)
For 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the
forecast period at both HSV and MSL. Mid to high clouds are expected
to move back into the taf sites between 08z-11z. Expect broken
conditions to continue until between the 02z-03z time frame on
Tuesday evening. A few-scattered cirrus should prevail under VFR
conditions after the 02z-03z time frame until the end of the forecast
period.


TT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    89  70  92  73 /  20  10  20  10
Shoals        90  71  92  73 /  20  10  20  10
Vinemont      88  69  91  72 /  20  10  30  10
Fayetteville  87  69  89  71 /  20  10  20  10
Albertville   88  70  90  72 /  20  10  30  10
Fort Payne    88  69  89  70 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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