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Area Forecast Discussion

445
FXUS64 KHUN 242324 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
524 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 241 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE SOUTHEAST UNDER A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW NOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY OR
FALLING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
BY NIGHTFALL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. A
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...AT
THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS LOW...AND INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS GEORGIA...AND THEN ALONG THE
EAST COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS AREAS TO OUR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT VERY GOOD CONCERNING HOW FAR WEST THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREAS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING EVEN WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES
OCCUR. HOWEVER...THERE IS THAT FINE LINE OF PRECIP TYPE...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN CASE ANY WINTRY PRECIP
APPEARS LIKELY.

A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY
MOVES OUT OF GEORGIA AND TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...TAKING THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
THIS WILL BRING IN MORE WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION BY
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW DURING
THE EXTENDED...AND THEREFORE MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE
NNW AROUND 5 KT. AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WASN`T PUT INTO THE TAF GIVEN NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
EXPECTED.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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