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Area Forecast Discussion

774
FXUS64 KHUN 291924
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
224 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 88-D AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AT 1920Z CONTINUED
TO SHOW THAT AN MCS AND ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS MOVING
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
THIS LARGE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM NEAR
MEMPHIS TENNESSEE...TO ALONG THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER. WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHER POPS FROM WEST TOWARD THE EAST THIS EVENING AS
LINE/AREA OF STRONG STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
DEWPOINTS FROM HSV EASTWARD INTO THE MID 50S AT THIS TIME...IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. DEWPOINT TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL PRECIP FORECAST INDICATED THAT THE SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND BE JUST ABOUT
OUT OF THE AREA BY BETWEEN 03Z-04Z TONIGHT. HAVE TAPERED OFF
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THEREAFTER TONIGHT.

BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH MISSISSIPPI TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 18Z
SATURDAY AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL AGAIN FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA AGAIN EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL FURTHER DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION INTO THE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS AND DRYING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURRING BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...TO END RAIN CHANCES.

A NORTHWEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1258 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...CURRENT VFR VIS/CIG AT KHSV/KMSL TAF SITES WILL GIVE
WAY TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS A COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA MOVES INTO
NRN AL. LATEST TIMING PLACES THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING INVOF KMSL
BY 2130-2200Z. TSRA COVERAGE IS GENERALLY CONTINUOUS ALONG THE LINE
AND THUS FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT TSRA CHANCES AT KMSL. IMPACTS THERE MAY
BE GREATER THAN AT KHSV AS THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS NRN AL. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FCST
FOR KMSL DUE TO THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF EXPECTED ACTIVITY...BUT
LOWER CIG/VIS MAY OCCUR BRIEFLY IF A HEAVIER CELL PASSES ACROSS THE
TAF SITE. RAPIDLY IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY AFTER 00-02Z
WITH VFR LARGELY PREVAILING THROUGH 30/1800Z.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    64  82  65  81 /  50  40  60  70
SHOALS        63  83  66  80 /  70  40  60  60
VINEMONT      62  81  65  79 /  50  30  60  70
FAYETTEVILLE  61  79  63  79 /  30  50  60  60
ALBERTVILLE   62  81  65  79 /  40  30  60  70
FORT PAYNE    59  80  63  78 /  20  40  60  70

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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