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Area Forecast Discussion

937
FXUS64 KHUN 020640
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
140 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ABOVE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST TX AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE/DRY SLOT WAS PUSHING NORTHWARD THRU AZ
INTO NV/UT. THE 06Z SFC MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM THE
OZARK PLATEAU EAST INTO KY. A POCKET OF NOTICEABLY LOWER DEW POINTS
WAS FOUND ALONG THE OH VALLEY INTO KY/TN. THIS COINCIDES WITH LOWER
PWS IN THIS AREA WHICH ARE PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY VALUES DESPITE SEASONABLY OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLY
HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE L-M90S. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DIP
INTO THE U50S-L60S IN OUR TN/NERN AL VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH L-M60S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER. THEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND WEAKENS,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION.

AS WE GO INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THE SW U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHORTWAVES
TRACK FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS. THE NAM
DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAXES IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WHICH TAKE A ROUTE FURTHER S THRU THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE MID SOUTH BY MIDWEEK AS COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH IS FURTHER
NORTH. THE NAM VERSION OF THE INITIAL WAVE INVOKES PRECIP IN THE
MODELS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID S AND LOWER MS VALLEY WHICH
COULD ARRIVE HERE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
ANY PRECIP MORE SPOTTY AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY HEATING. SINCE THE
ORIGIN OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THE ROCKIES/PLAINS SEEM TO HAVE SOME
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE, THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THESE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW TO MID CHC RANGE AT THIS
POINT. THE 00Z GFS MODEL APPEARS TO TRACK THE WAVE TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING A COLD FRONT THIS FAR S. THE NEXT SET OF WAVES LATE THIS WEEK
PRODUCE DEEPER NORTHERLY FLOW AND DIG THE TROF FURTHER SE ALONG WITH
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE FOLLOWED BLENDED
GUIDANCE CLOSELY, WE HAVE GONE WITH A MORE "MIDDLE OF THE ROAD"
APPROACH TO POPS STAYING IN THE LOW-MID CHC RANGE FOR THU-FRI-SAT.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  96  68  97 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        64  95  66  96 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      66  93  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  58  92  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   62  92  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    57  92  60  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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