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Area Forecast Discussion

306
FXUS64 KHUN 291948
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
248 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE VAPOR/VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED DRYER AIR
PUSHING IN FROM THE W-NW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WAS HELPING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AND WATER SOURCE
AREAS OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS(80S).

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LAG AS ON THURSDAY AS AN 850 MB RIDGE AXIS FORMS IN THE
GULF KEEPING OUR SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM PULLING ANY TRUE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ON THE 12Z MODELS THE EURO
AND GFS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO THE REGION ABOUT THE SAME TIME ON
FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS WEAKEN THE FRONT SOME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. GFS
SHOWS CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...DEWPOINTS AROUND 70....0-6 KM SHEAR
35-45 KNOTS. SO WILL KEEP THE HWO THE SAME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MADE NO
FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SYSTEM.

BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A TASTE
OF FALL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOW ~50. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/ FOR 18Z TAFS...LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SCT CU ARND 4 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH NNE FLOW INCREASING TO
7-9 KTS. SFC RIDGE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE PROMOTING MORE
WIDESPREAD AND THICKER FOG DEVELOPMENT BY 30/05-06Z.
17/70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  85  59  90  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        58  86  58  89  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      57  84  56  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  57  83  56  87  62 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   55  83  57  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    59  83  58  86  61 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.





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