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Area Forecast Discussion

107
FXUS64 KHUN 240137 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
837 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND TWEAKED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING
MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. AS A RESULT WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR
SKY COVER. EXPECTING MRNG LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER NW AL TO THE MID
40S ELSEWHERE. 00Z U/A FROM OHX/BMX ARE VERY DRY THUS NOT EXPECTING
ANY PCPN OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MRNG
(AFTER 12Z) AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TN VALLEY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 556 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...5H TROF AXIS IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE TN RIVER.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 5H TROF WAS MAINLY BKN AC/CI CLOUDS. SINCE THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS VERY DRY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. AS THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z
FRIDAY MRNG...EXPECT AC/CI CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH
ARKANSAS AS EVIDENCED BY QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF ARKANSAS AND INTO
MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS TO LESSEN TOWARD MORNING. DUE TO MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH A DECENT PORTION OF THE NIGHT...HAVE
SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH GFS TEMP
MODEL GUIDANCE.

AFTER THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS THE REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WEATHER UNTIL AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME
PERIOD...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE GENERALLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIGHTLY BUMP UP TEMPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TIME PERIODS.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS MOVE SOME WEAK 500
MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST TENNESSEE AND INTO
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
DIFFER INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED LESSENING CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL STALLS OUT THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN HAS THE
BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. WILL WAIT FOR FUTURE
MODEL RUNS BEFORE SETTLING ON A FINAL SOLUTION INVOLVING THIS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR THURSDAY FOR NOW.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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