« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » HUN Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

399
FXUS64 KHUN 261535 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1035 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...TO RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ADJUST SKY COVER

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AL THIS
MORNING...THE EXCEPTION BEING A CORRIDOR FROM CULLMAN NORTH THROUGH
HUNTSVILLE AL. TEMPERATURES WHERE SUNSHINE CONTINUES HAVE ALREADY
RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES AT 10
AM ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

MUCH OF THIS CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT
WHICH STRETCHES FROM WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWEST INTO NW TN AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. SOME VIRGA AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS...CAN BE SEEN ALONG THE
MORE NOTICEABLE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NE MS SW
TOWARDS JACKSON MS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING...THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE LOW 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 1 PM. BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MODELS ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTHEAST TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN ~ 4 PM AND 7 PM.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD...850 MB
ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT (850 MB WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH).
WITH SOME DECENT MID LEVEL SHEAR COUPLED WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 500
- 1000 J/KG FORECAST BY MODELS...STILL BELIEVE A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MODELS DO SHOW WET-
BULB HEIGHTS DROPPING TO AROUND 8000 FEET...SO WAS CONSIDERING SMALL
HAIL AS A POTENTIAL THREAT...BUT BELIEVE CAPE/LIFT WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR HAIL TO BE A THREAT. AROUND ONE QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL QUICKLY PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
OCCUR AROUND 1 OR 2 PM IN NW AL AND AROUND 7 PM IN NE AL. EXPECT
HIGHS BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 70S
EAST OF I-65 AND THE UPPER 60S IN NW AL AND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 17Z...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE KMSL TERMINAL BY 23Z...AND
THE KHSV TERMINAL BY 00Z. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS
GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO 3K FT BY 18Z AND THEN
DROPPING FURTHER TO 1500 FT BY THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 10Z
AT KMSL AND 12Z AT KHSV. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TURN MORE NORTHERNLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.