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Area Forecast Discussion

346
FXUS64 KHUN 220904
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
404 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A NW FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION...GIVEN TROUGHING IN PLACE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT FORMED OFF OF THE
SE COAST EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...WAS TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SOME OF IT ASSOCIATED
WITH FORMER EAST-PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE...CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ROCKIES.

LOCALLY...A NORTH-SOUTH PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING HAS USHERED COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY FROM THE NORTH. THIS COOLER AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE...
NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HAS RESULTED IN COOLER LATE NIGHT
AIR TEMPERATURES THUS FAR...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE MID 60S NEAR/SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED PARTS OF THIS AREA SUNDAY
EVENING...HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

FOR TODAY...NOTABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE TOWARD THE REGION. AFTER HIGHS ON SUN
RANGING IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
`STRUGGLE` INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES. A
NORTHERLY WIND OF 5-15 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL CHILL INTO THE 50S. A FEW UPPER 40S CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE COLDER SPOTS IN THE FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS WARMING A CATEGORY
OR SO WARMER...RISING INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE IN THE CARDS FOR THE MID AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS NEW WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS DURING THIS
PERIOD IN THE LOWER 80S. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MID
WEEK...WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH DURING THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK WILL
MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THU/FRI.
WINDS FOR THE MID WEEK TO THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME EASTERLY...
GRADUALLY BRINGING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. ENOUGH
OF THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN LOW RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING...JUST IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DISAGREEMENT
WITH MODEL OUTPUT WAS MORE APPARENT BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
THE GFS STAYING DRIER THAN THE ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS SHOWING
SOMEWHAT MORE PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS THE SE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. BOTH MODELS WERE DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...THEN TRACKING IT INLAND TOWARDS THE VALLEY. THE EC
WAS DECIDEDLY WETTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN THE DRIER TREND
OF THE GFS...HAVE LOWERED POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT...BUT KEPT LOWER END
CHANCE POPS NEXT SUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM...IN THE LOWER 80S.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KHSV/KMSL TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NRLY THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING DAYTIME MIXING BTWN 14-00Z.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  49  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        78  50  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      77  50  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  76  49  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   75  51  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    77  49  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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