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Area Forecast Discussion

007
FXUS64 KHUN 031207
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
707 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 336 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE WEST
COAST. CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WAS
OBSERVED...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING IN THE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPS HAVE NOT COOLED VERY MUCH DUE TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE MID 70S.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT...LEADING TO
FAIRLY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. THEREFORE...LIGHT FOG WAS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEARING OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES TO THE EAST...MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG WILL BE LIKELY. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIFT
QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK...AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH DESPITE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. FORECAST PW
VALUES EXCEED 1.6 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS JUST ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE LIFT...NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. POPS WERE INCREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY...AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH PRECIP DURING
THE DAY TO INCREASE POPS...AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST AND FILTER SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREFORE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING AT A VERY
HIGH CHANCE FOR RAIN GIVEN LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE POPS IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING IN JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH MAY BRING A DECENT
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...IN SPITE OF BKN/OVC HIGH-LVL CLOUDS...BR/FG CONTINUES
TO IMPACT HSV/MSL AND TEMPO FOR REDUCED VSBY WILL BE INCLUDED THRU
03/13Z. AT MSL -- WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED -- LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL
BE PSBL FOR ROUGHLY ANOTHER HOUR. SCT/BKN HIGH-BASED CU WILL DEVELOP
BY 15Z IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING OF HIGH CLOUD DECK. HOWEVER...ANY
CIGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 4-7 KFT RANGE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL
BE BIT MORE UNSTABLE TODAY...WITH ISOLATED-WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF A SUBTLE LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE BNDRY IN THE
REGION. UNCERTAINTY W.R.T. TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY PREVENT
INCLUSION OF VCTS/CB AT THIS POINT. A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG EVENT IS PSBL TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD AS LINGERING CLOUDS
FROM ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...AND SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN LGT/VRBL.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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