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Area Forecast Discussion

027
FXUS64 KHUN 200340 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
940 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN CHANCES LOWERED OVERNIGHT...MORNING LOWS SAT ALSO LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN AIDED BY A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY THIS LATE FRI EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW SPORADIC REPORTS OF SLEET/UNKNOWN PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN VERY BRIEF. THE
TAIL END OF THIS PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH WRN/MID TN INTO NE
MS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA GOING INTO THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS. AS SUCH...HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE CHC CAT
AFTER MIDNIGHT...TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN.
CURRENT TEMPS IN SOME AREAS HAVE ALSO LOWERED INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
RANGE...AND WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF COUPLED WITH DEW PTS AROUND
THE 30F MARK...EARLY MORNING LOWS SAT HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ONGOING PATTERN. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT
THIS POINT...WITH PREDOM CLOUDY SKIES XPCTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE
DAYBREAK PERIOD.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 540 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID LEVEL BKN/OVC CLOUDS IN PLACE...AND -RA
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW...VFR CONDS PREVAIL AT BOTH MAIN
TERMINALS FOR NOW. CIG HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER CLOSER TO 4-5KT FT
LATER THIS EVENING...WITH -RA CONTINUING AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
TRAVERSES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. CONDS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER INTO THE
MVFR CAT NEAR THE MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME...IN/AROUND SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RA. OVERALL CONDS/CIGS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE/LIFT HEADING INTO
THE MORNING HRS SAT...AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES E OF THE AREA.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCOMING TROF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER JET OF 100-120KT. THIS JET WILL SLICE ACROSS MS/AL/NRN
GA THRU SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OVER THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. RRQ UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED BEST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
STEADY PCPN. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONSET OF PRECIP TONIGHT AND QPF WILL BE LIMITED BY AN AREA
OF MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND SINKING AIR THAT HAS ERODED MOISTURE AND
LOWER CIGS WHICH WERE IN PLACE IN THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL AWAIT
FURTHER COORDINATION, BUT SHOULD BE GOING WITH A LIKELY POP-LOW QPF
SCENARIO (HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES). ANY CLEARING ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TEMPORARY BEFORE LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BRINGS LOWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT WILL OCCUR IN SRN AL AND
MUCH OF GA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MOS TEMP
VALUES.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINS ACTIVE WITH RAPID AMPLIFICATION
ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUAL-CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GULF SOUTH ARE INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.
TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING A "BOMB" WITH
27MB/24H FROM 06Z/24-06Z/25 FROM AL INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT WITH THE GFS WHICH DOES NOT
FOCUS ON A SOUTHERN CYCLONE INTO THE MIX. IN BOTH SOLUTIONS, THERE IS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESULTANT LOW-END
CAPE VALUES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUE-TUE EVENING. SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED A CHC OF T ALONG WITH A LIKELY POP OF SHRA. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WILL NOT
INCLUDE FLURRIES JUST YET ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
TO OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS DEPENDING ON MOISTURE DEPTH. THIS IS STILL
UNCLEAR WITH THE DISPERSED MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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