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Area Forecast Discussion

558
FXUS64 KHUN 262004
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
204 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA UNDER SOME BREAKS
IN THE LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING MOVING ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL FILTER SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY RISE TO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NOT AS MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S ON
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AM AND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BY SUNDAY
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO TENNESSEE BY 00Z MONDAY...
WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IN LINE
WITH FORECAST PRECIP GUIDANCE. HIGHER POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY. A GRADUAL HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE FROM THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS WE HEAD CLOSER TO NEXT
WEEK.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DISSIPATE THE INITIAL COLD FRONT BY
LATE TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS FASTER WITH THE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT...COMPARED TO THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GFS MODEL TIMING SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE
WITH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FORECAST AREA WIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODELS KEEP IN
LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO THURSDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS SOLUTION. BIG TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE WARMER ECMWF
MODEL AND THE MUCH COLDER GFS MODEL. HAVE BLENDED BETWEEN THE MODEL
TEMPS FOR THIS ISSUANCE AS WE GET TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1118 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SCT
CLOUDS REDEVELOPING COULD BECOME BKN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD (MVFR). WILL
LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO ASSESS SATELLITE TRENDS. A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES BY MID TO LATE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY. A
FEW FLURRIES ARE PSBL, BUT PROB IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
CLEARING BACK TO VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ~16Z/27 AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    22  39  26  48 /  10   0   0  10
SHOALS        22  38  25  49 /  10   0   0  10
VINEMONT      23  35  25  49 /  10   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  21  34  23  46 /  10   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   26  38  25  49 /  10   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    26  39  25  47 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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