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Area Forecast Discussion

049
FXUS64 KHUN 280303 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1003 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET AND TRANQUIL NIGHT IS ONGOING WX WISE ACROSS THE CNTRL
TN VALLEY...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE OH VALLEY
REGION. WITH SFC FLOW BEGINNING TO VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE NE...TEMPS
ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS FRI. DEW PTS
HAVE ALSO STARTED TO RESPOND WITH THE DIR CHANGE...WITH VALUES NOW
MORE IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPS FRI MORNING PREDOM IN THE LOWER 60S STILL
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS TO HAVE THIS OVERALL PATTERN WELL IN HAND...AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED ATTM.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 640 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH HSV AND MSL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL KEEP IN A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 15Z AND INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 8 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

TT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 319 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT FOR THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE RIDGE CONTINUED A
LIGHT NE FLOW OVER THE REGION. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...HIGH TEMPERATURES SO FAR INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...HAS
ALLOWED SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF OUR
AREA. ONLY PARTS OF NW ALABAMA HAVE STAYED ON THE CLOUD-FREE SIDE SO
FAR. DEEPER CUMULUS...AND TCU HAD FORMED EAST OF THE REGION. IT
SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS DIRECT DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDES.

A WEAK NW FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE REGION...AS TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS RELAXES SOMEWHAT. UPPER RIDGING OTHERWISE WAS IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/DESERT SW AND OFF OF THE EAST COAST.
LASTLY...TROPICAL STORM ERICKA CONTINUED CHURNING OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. SHEAR IN THAT ENVIRONMENT WERE KEEPING IT ON A SLOW RATE
OF INTENSIFICATION. ITS EVENTUAL PATH BY THE EARLY/MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK COULD HAVE INFLUENCE ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER...SHOULD IT SURVIVE
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

ONE LAST DRY DAY SHOULD BE REALIZED FOR FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
RETURN JUST IN TIME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE ABOVE NOTED SURFACE
HIGH SHOULD MOVE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN A SE SURFACE FLOW. THIS OF
COURSE WILL BRING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. THE
MOISTURE AND STILL STRONG SUMMER-TIME DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY REFORM FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO OHIO
VALLEY. THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FORMATION OF AN
UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTH/CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING SAT/SUN. THIS LOW
SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE NE TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THE TROUGH/LOW...ESPECIALLY IF IF DEEPENS FURTHER AND/OR DELAYS ITS
TRACK TO THE NE COULD SERVE TO BRING TC ERICKA FURTHER WESTWARD. IN
ANY CASE...SOME DIFFERENCES AS USUAL ARE NOTED WITH THE PATH OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM. IT STILL WILL GET CLOSE TO...IF NOT MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD IN SOME FASHION. IF
IT STAYS ON THE MORE EASTERN GFS PATH...LITTLE OR NO PRECIP WOULD
OCCUR HERE. THE ECMWF SWINGS IT (WITH A GENERALLY MUCH WEAKER
APPEARANCE) FURTHER WESTWARD AT FIRST...THEN REBOUNDS EASTWARD. GIVEN
A FORECAST STAYING EAST OF HERE...OPTED FOR DRY FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR NEXT WED/THU.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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