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Area Forecast Discussion

514
FXUS64 KHUN 282303
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
603 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
 (Issued 235 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016)

Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper level low shifting to the
north-northeast across the Great Plains, while Tropical Depression 2
makes its way towards the South Carolina coast. In between these two
low pressure systems, a convergence axis was located parallel and
just east of I-65 over the TN Valley. This, along with an influx of
moisture, has allow for showers to continue to develop and move in a
northward motion across a narrow axis in eastern Alabama and central
TN. Radar trends support short term guidance in that the activity
will slowly shift eastward and dissipate towards the evening hours.
Meanwhile, extensive dense cirrus was holding across the forecast
area, keeping our temperatures several degrees cooler than those
yesterday. Thus, the lack of thunderstorm activity.

The Great Plains surface low will continue to shift to the north-
northeast overnight, sending a series of weak shortwaves through
region. Lift will be meager, and with little instability during the
day, showers and thunderstorms are not anticipated to develop
overnight. Meanwhile, the axis of the upper trough will flatten,
leaving zonal flow over the forecast area on Sunday. While the
probability of thunderstorm develop remains low, given the
uncertainty of mesoscale conditions, have kept in a low 20 pop in the
forecast for Sunday afternoon. The greatest chance for thunderstorms,
though still isolated in nature, will be across the eastern portion
of the forecast area once again, where another convergence zone is
forecast to develop and moisture will be greatest.

The remainder of the forecast period, through next Friday, remains
relatively similar each day. Weak shortwaves will continue to move
in the weak zonal flow aloft and any boundaries will provide a focus
for convection. Upper level ridging will begin to build in on
Tuesday, providing our warmest temperatures over the next 7 days.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough will slowly move east of the
Rockies by mid week, with a cold front developing south of the
surface low. This system will approach the forecast area late
Wednesday. As moisture increases ahead of it, thunderstorm chances
will also increase, with the highest chances expected Thursday
through Friday, as the front moves across the area. With this being
so far in the extended, didn`t feel confident enough to add the
likely pops and therefore adjusted the pops down by a few
percentages. Temperatures late in the extended will be near seasonal
and highly dependent on any precip that does occur.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
For 00Z TAFs: A weak upper wave will produce some sct shra/tsra mainly
east of the taf sites until arnd 03z. After 03z the shra/tsra
activity will dissipate across the TN Valley due to loss of day time
heating. Sunday will be similar to today with only a slight chc of
shra/tsra. Otherwise expect mainly vfr conditions thru the fcst
period for both KMSL and KHSV.

007

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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