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Area Forecast Discussion
438 FXUS64 KHUN 251940 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 240 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... Convection is having a tougher time developing this Mon afternoon in response to some drier mid level air in place. Weak frontal boundary remains located well nw of the local area or mainly from the OH Valley swwd into the Lower MS Valley/mid Plains states. There`s a little more coverage in place of showers/tstms over wrn/mid TN in closer proximity to the sfc front. This has allowed temp trends over much of the area to climb into the lower/mid 90s under partly cloudy skies. Heat indices for the most part though are holding near the 100F mark, thx in part to a little bit of drier air in the lower levels mixing down to the sfc. A little bit more convective activity is still xpcted across the area heading into the late afternoon hrs, as latent heating tries to assist what updraft formation can be maintained. With vertical shear still pretty much lacking, gusty outflow winds and very brief heavy rainfall look to be the main hazards with any potential stronger storms. Lingering activity should then quickly diminish early this evening with the loss of max heating. Overnight lows are once again xpcted to trend mainly in the lower/mid 70s range for most locations. With the front xpcted to stall n of the area into Tue, similar wx conditions are again xpcted tomorrow. With the cntrl TN Valley still under the influence of an upper ridge pattern over the srn Atlantic states, convection may have a tough time developing again thereby allowing afternoon temps to climb back into the lower/mid 90s. Dew pts though are again xpcted to mix out some, with max indices right around 100F, except perhaps across parts of nw AL where indices may tempo approach 105F. What convection develops later in the day Tue should then provide some reprieve from the heat/humidity going into the evening period. The overall pattern is still xpcted to turn a little bit more active heading into mid week, as a general weakness aloft develops over the region sandwiched in between two upper ridge patterns to the w and e. In addition to increased rain chances, afternoon highs look to return closer to seasonal values, or in the lower 90s on Wed and then perhaps more in the upper 80s/near 90F going toward the end of the work week. The global model suites are still hinting at the upper ridge axis over the ern Gulf weakening in the Thu/Fri time frame while the flow pattern increases slightly out of the nw in response to an upper trough moving ewd into the Midwest/Oh Valley states. For now, kept rain chances during the day in the high chc cat into the upcoming weekend, although these may actually climb a little higher if the model consensus holds onto the developing upper trough pattern after mid week. Hopefully, this provides some much needed rainfall to the local area, with overall temps remaining near normal as highs hover around 90F and lows fall into the lower 70s. 09 && .AVIATION... (Issued 1127 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016) For 18Z TAFs: Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but the probability is too low to include at either KMSL or KHSV at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Patchy river valley fog is possible, mainly along the Tennessee and Paint Rock River valleys of northeast Alabama. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Huntsville 75 95 75 91 / 20 30 20 40 Shoals 73 96 74 92 / 20 30 20 40 Vinemont 72 93 73 91 / 20 30 20 40 Fayetteville 72 92 71 90 / 20 30 20 40 Albertville 72 93 73 90 / 20 30 20 30 Fort Payne 72 92 72 90 / 20 30 20 40 && .HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.