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Area Forecast Discussion

407
FXUS64 KHUN 012336
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
636 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
THE MCS THAT WAS OVER MO THIS MRNG IS NOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE EXTENDING FROM OUR TN
ZONES THRU MADISON COUNTY AND INTO MORGAN COUNTY. AS A RESULT A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR MOST OF THE TN
VALLEY...EXCEPT COLBERT/CULLMAN/FRANKLIN (AL) COUNTIES. BEHIND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LINE OF STORMS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX WILL
DIMINISH.

HOWEVER THERE IS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT
WILL APPROACH THE TN VALLEY IN NW FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. SOME STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ATTM WILL GO WITH LOW END LIKELY POPS
FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE WX SCENARIO. MODELS DO SHOW
ANOTHER POSSIBLE MCS THURSDAY MRNG THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHERWISE WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE CHC OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARDS THE SERN
US. THE PROBLEM ATTM IS TRYING TO TIME THESE DISTURBANCES AND
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. ALSO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND WOULD BE THE
CHC OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USING A TOTAL QPF TOOL
FROM TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MRNG...THE TOTAL RAINFALL WAS ARND 2
INCHES. SO FOR NOW DONT THINK WE WILL NEED A FFA...BUT IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
UPPER RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THIS TAF PERIOD IN
TERMS OF THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
A VERY UNSTABLE PATTERN SETTING UP. WILL INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING VCTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BEFORE
16/17Z SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THEY MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO
MVFR/IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN S-SW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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