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Area Forecast Discussion

438
FXUS64 KHUN 251940
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
240 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Convection is having a tougher time developing this Mon afternoon in
response to some drier mid level air in place. Weak frontal boundary
remains located well nw of the local area or mainly from the OH
Valley swwd into the Lower MS Valley/mid Plains states. There`s a
little more coverage in place of showers/tstms over wrn/mid TN in
closer proximity to the sfc front. This has allowed temp trends over
much of the area to climb into the lower/mid 90s under partly cloudy
skies. Heat indices for the most part though are holding near the
100F mark, thx in part to a little bit of drier air in the lower
levels mixing down to the sfc. A little bit more convective activity
is still xpcted across the area heading into the late afternoon hrs,
as latent heating tries to assist what updraft formation can be
maintained. With vertical shear still pretty much lacking, gusty
outflow winds and very brief heavy rainfall look to be the main
hazards with any potential stronger storms. Lingering activity
should then quickly diminish early this evening with the loss of max
heating. Overnight lows are once again xpcted to trend mainly in the
lower/mid 70s range for most locations.

With the front xpcted to stall n of the area into Tue, similar wx
conditions are again xpcted tomorrow. With the cntrl TN Valley still
under the influence of an upper ridge pattern over the srn Atlantic
states, convection may have a tough time developing again thereby
allowing afternoon temps to climb back into the lower/mid 90s. Dew
pts though are again xpcted to mix out some, with max indices right
around 100F, except perhaps across parts of nw AL where indices may
tempo approach 105F. What convection develops later in the day Tue
should then provide some reprieve from the heat/humidity going into
the evening period.

The overall pattern is still xpcted to turn a little bit more active
heading into mid week, as a general weakness aloft develops over the
region sandwiched in between two upper ridge patterns to the w and
e. In addition to increased rain chances, afternoon highs look to
return closer to seasonal values, or in the lower 90s on Wed and
then perhaps more in the upper 80s/near 90F going toward the end of
the work week. The global model suites are still hinting at the
upper ridge axis over the ern Gulf weakening in the Thu/Fri time
frame while the flow pattern increases slightly out of the nw in
response to an upper trough moving ewd into the Midwest/Oh Valley
states. For now, kept rain chances during the day in the high chc
cat into the upcoming weekend, although these may actually climb a
little higher if the model consensus holds onto the developing upper
trough pattern after mid week. Hopefully, this provides some much
needed rainfall to the local area, with overall temps remaining near
normal as highs hover around 90F and lows fall into the lower 70s.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1127 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016)
For 18Z TAFs: Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but
the probability is too low to include at either KMSL or KHSV at this
time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Patchy river valley fog is possible, mainly along the Tennessee and
Paint Rock River valleys of northeast Alabama.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    75  95  75  91 /  20  30  20  40
Shoals        73  96  74  92 /  20  30  20  40
Vinemont      72  93  73  91 /  20  30  20  40
Fayetteville  72  92  71  90 /  20  30  20  40
Albertville   72  93  73  90 /  20  30  20  30
Fort Payne    72  92  72  90 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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