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Area Forecast Discussion

140
FXUS64 KHUN 251738 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1138 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1040 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
SO FAR...A STELLAR START FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH
GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THUS FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED AFFAIR AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WAS PROVIDING A LIGHT SW FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES. ON A BROADER VIEW...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
CONTINUED ACROSS THE CONUS. A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION (AROUND ST LOUIS) WAS
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS CLIPPER WILL CONTINUE IN AN ESE MOVEMENT...REACHING EASTERN
VA/MD BY MON MORNING. PRECEDING IT AND TO ITS SOUTH...A TROUGH WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EARLY MON. WITH THE TROUGH...INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND LIFT WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE VALLEY. THUS RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE NAM/RAP/HRRR DO INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT LATE TODAY. SO
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INTO THE MIX. MAIN RISKS FROM
STORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES...THE RAIN SHOULD MIX WITH...
THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A WARM GROUND
FROM DECENT HEATING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER ISSUES ARE UNLIKELY.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY THE EARLY EVENING...AND IFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ACCOMPANYING
GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. ERRATIC WINDS/SMALL HAIL/LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE TAF
GIVEN LOW CHANCES AT A TERMINAL. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH OR BECOME SNOW
DURING THE LATE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. AIR TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR
FREEZING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END AFTER DAYBREAK MON...WITH VFR WEATHER EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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