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Area Forecast Discussion

094
FXUS64 KHUN 280250 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
850 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. A COLDER NIGHT IS
ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. HOURLY TEMPS
WERE RUNNING A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN FORECAST DUE TO LINGERING CLOUD
COVER. EXPECTED WITH THE SKIES NOW CLEARING...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP
AND SHOULD GET TO THEIR FORECAST LOWS. LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 536 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...BKN/OVC CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING SO STARTED THE
TAFS OUT WITH SCT CIGS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR SCT-FEW CIGS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE STILL 5-10KT AS OF 00Z BUT EXPECT THEM TO
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 221 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IS STREAMING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...KEEPING TEMPERATURE JUST A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...THOUGH STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH STRONG WAA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM.

WITH RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS A BIT OFF IN THEIR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE. THE GFS BRING THE FRONT IN DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE...WITH THE MOISTURE
EXITING THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND THEN STALLS...BEFORE DISSIPATING
ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. GIVEN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE 50S...THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS BETTER WORKED OUT.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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