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Area Forecast Discussion

111
FXUS64 KHUN 111107
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
507 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE REGION THE LAST TWO
DAYS IS FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH TEMPS AS OF 09Z IN THE
LOWER 20S. AS THE AIR MASS RECOVERS UNDER SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...TEMPS WILL FEEL
WARM COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE UPPER 40S LOWER 50S. WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST
A FEW DEG COOLER THAN OTHER AREAS. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT...EVEN WITH LIGHT
WINDS...TEMPS WILL STILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AGAIN WITH SKIES BRIEFLY CLEARING OUT IN THE
MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH AND WITH A MUCH DRIER
NW FLOW OVER THE AREA...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN TERMS OF TEMPS
BECAUSE THE FRONT COULD PROGRESS QUICKER DUE TO LITTLE BLOCKING OUT
TO THE EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPS A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN
FORECAST.

A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. LOWS FRI NIGHT
WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 20S BUT WITH STRONG AND CONSTANT COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN THE DAY ON SATURDAY...HIGHS SAT
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS
EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS 5-10 DEG COLDER
THAN THE TEMPS.

TEMPS RECOVER NICELY ON SUNDAY AS A STEEP MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES IN
AND HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOWER 40S. AT THE SAME TIME THE NEXT SYSTEM
STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW DIGGING INTO
THE MIDWEST AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS UPPER WAVE WASHES OUT AND THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS
WHILE A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE BASE OF A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE GULF COAST. THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
AHEAD OF IT AND MOVE A SURFACE LOW SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CHANGING EACH MODEL RUN FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS IN
REGARDS TO THE SUNDAY-MONDAY SYSTEM SO IT IS HARD TO PLACE
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GENERAL PATTERN ON
SUNDAY IS CONSISTENT WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING IN THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVES AND THEN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. IN
GENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER IN TERMS OF THE ONSET OF
PRECIP WHICH A FEW DAYS AGO LOOKED LIKE A SNOW EVENT. NOW WE ARE
SEEING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW AT THE ONSET SUNDAY NIGHT...MAYBE
TRANSITIONING TO SLEET IN SOME AREAS FROM 9-12Z WITH EVERYWHERE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE WARM NOSE IN THE MID
LEVELS DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME AND
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR ALREADY ERODING ONCE THE SYSTEM GETS
HERE...LOOKS MORE LIKE A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET EVENT QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
RAIN WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE 40S. HAVE INCLUDED LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS (LESS THAN HALF AN INCH) FOR AREAS IN NE ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE THE COLDER TEMPS WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST.

THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW
MONDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE GFS SOLUTION IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ECMWF
IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SO WILL LEAVE THE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION OUT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...LINGERING PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT MAY TAPER OFF AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW BEFORE THE COLUMN
QUICKLY DRIES OUT.

ANOTHER QUICK TEMP RECOVERY ON TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SPREAD OF TEMPS TUE IS 10-15 DEGREES
AMONG SOME MODELS EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET UPS SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
SOUTH...HIGHS WED AND THU COULD REACH NEAR 60 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
CI/AC CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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