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Area Forecast Discussion

802
FXUS64 KHUN 161717 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1046 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
CLEARING AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT A LITTLE WARMER
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. IN ADDITION, VIS
SATELLITE HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND MUCH OF S MIDDLE
TN. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A LOW CLOUD DECK OVER MIDDLE
TN SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SPEAKING OF THE COLD
FRONT, IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST EAST OF KBNA (NASHVILLE) TO
KSNH (SAVANNAH, TN) TO JUST WEST OF KMSL (MUSCLE SHOALS, AL). THUS,
THE SKY COVER FORECAST IS A LITTLE COMPLEX FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON--CHANGING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR TO INCREASING
CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AL.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN MAINLY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND A COUPLE OF WEAK MESOSCALE VORT
MAX`S MOVE FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY TO MIDDLE TN. AN ANALYSIS
OF THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT INDICATES A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE (SB
CAPES AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG) PROFILE WITH WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SHEAR BUT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
DISCRETE TO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS WITH MICROBURST POTENTIAL. THE
AREAL COVERAGE IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BUT APPEARS TO BE MORE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AL.

ADDITIONAL TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECAST
FOR THE CURRENT TREND.

SL.77

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
CURRENT VFR CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN AS
LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE RECENT COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
OVC CEILINGS ARND 2KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHEN THEY
WILL LIKELY LOWER TO ~1500FT. DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT
DID NOT FORMALLY MENTION IN THE TAFS WITH THIS UPDATE. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK
TOMORROW, WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND VFR CONDS RETURNING BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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