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Area Forecast Discussion

476
FXUS64 KHUN 191937
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
237 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE ANALYSIS AT 19Z INDICATED THAT THE FORECAST AREA
WAS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AT 500 MILLIBARS. AREA 88-D RADARS
INDICATED THAT THERE WERE ONLY A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO EAST TENNESSEE. TEMPS WERE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT THAT
ANOTHER 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO EAST TENNESSEE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE VORT MAX AS IT TRACKS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE SLIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO MAINLY
NORTHEAST ALABAMA. WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM TEMPS
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

BY THURSDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATIVE OF A STRONGER CAP WITH TIME AND WILL KEEP
OUT THE MENTION OF ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
MONDAY. WILL TREND CLOSER TO MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LATTER PART
OF THIS WEEK...WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO CORRESPOND TO EXPECTED
HOT TEMPS AND EXPECT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA
INTO MONDAY.

BY BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE EASTERN
SECTION OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE JUST
ENOUGH ON TUESDAY THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY...LESS
OF A MID LEVEL CAP...WHICH COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP TEMPS HOT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
...BUT WILL BACK OFF ON HIGHS ON TUESDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS POSSIBLE
AND A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1247 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
MVFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LIFT AT BOTH
TERMINALS, WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AREA
THIS AFTN. MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST OF KHSV, SO WILL NOT
FORMALLY INCLUDE ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY AT EITHER SITE FOR NOW. VFR
CONDS WILL RETURN TO KMSL/KHSV BY THIS EVENING, AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  94  71  95 /  30  20  10  10
SHOALS        72  95  71  96 /  30  20  10  10
VINEMONT      71  91  71  92 /  30  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  70  94  71  92 /  30  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   71  93  70  93 /  30  20  10  10
FORT PAYNE    71  94  69  94 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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