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Area Forecast Discussion

962
FXUS64 KHUN 181132 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
532 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 320 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/
A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KS WAS PRODUCING A MIX BAG OF PCPN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/SRN MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS AREA OF PCPN IS NOW
BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE TN VALLEY...ESPECIALLY THE TN ZONES/NW AL.
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE TN VALLEY IS FAIRLY DRY ATTM WITH CEILINGS
ARND 9000 FT. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING
MORE MOIST IN THE LOWER LAYERS BY 12Z. THUS WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS
THE CWA UNTIL 18Z. MODELS ALL PRETTY MUCH AGREE THAT AFTER 18Z THE
CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ATTM WERE RANGING
FROM 34 AT FORT PAYNE TO 40 AT MSL. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING
OVER MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z AND AFTER. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY WINTRY
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SLEET PELLETS MAINLY OVER OUR TN
ZONES THIS MRNG. OVERALL MODELS/RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW THAT MOST OF THE
PCPN WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA WITH THE TN ZONES HAVING A LITTLE
BETTER CHC OF PCPN. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL END THE PCPN BY THIS
AFTN AND WILL KEEP TONIGHT DRY AS WELL...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE TN
VALLEY WITH A GOOD CHC OF RAIN. TIMING OF PCPN LOOKS TO BEGIN BY
FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST CHC OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MRNG. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AFTN AND WILL
KEEP SATURDAY NIGHT DRY. ATTM THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE OVER SRN AL
AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY MRNG/AFTN WILL KEEP DRY DUE TO A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. BUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...PCPN WILL START
TO MOVE BACK NORTH ARND THE SFC LOW OVER NRN FL. WILL GO WITH A
SLIGHT POP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN
VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH MORE RAIN/CLOUDS. A CDFNT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA BY TUESDAY AFTN AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE
RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY MRNG AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD TURN BACK TO ALL
RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTN BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ATTM NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS IF WE GET ANY THING AT ALL...WILL ALL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN WAS
MOVING TO THE EAST...NORTHEAST OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE KMSL TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH RADAR ECHOS
WERE OBSERVED NEARING KHSV...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
PRECIPITATION ENTERING THE TERMINAL. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO
ONLY MENTION VCSH DURING THE MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
5000 FT AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6 MILES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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