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Area Forecast Discussion

985
FXUS64 KHUN 212342 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 150 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. CDFNT IS
EXTENDING FROM NRN AR THRU NW TN AND INTO ERN KY. NOT MUCH
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CDFNT ATTM. RADARS WERE SHOWING
THE HEAVIEST SHRA ACTIVITY JUST NE OF OUR TN COUNTIES AND WAS MOVING
E/SE. THUS BASED ON STLT/RADAR TRENDS AND NEW 12Z DATA...WILL COVER
THE CWA WITH 20/30 POPS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT MUCH
COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SVR WX THIS AFTN/EVENING BUT WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF HVY RA AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...KICK BACK AND ENJOY THE FALL LIKE WX THANKS
TO HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE CWA. AFTN HIGHS
WILL BE ARND 80 WITH MRNG LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...GFS SHOWS A BLOCKING TYPE WX PATTERN SETTING UP
OVER MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS
COULD ALLOW A DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE ARND THE RIDGE AND BRING A RAINY
WEEKEND TO THE TN VALLEY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY DURING THIS PERIOD...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH SHRA AND NO
THUNDER. HOWEVER IF ECMWF TURNS OUT CORRECT MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY
PCPN. NEEDLESS TO SAY DONT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
KHSV/KMSL TAF SITES. A LGT SHRA MAY MOVE ACROSS THE KHSV ARPT MAINLY
FROM 00-01Z...BUT REDUCTIONS OF VIS/CIG BELOW VFR ARE UNLIKELY AS
THIS SHRA IS WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY. THE PRIMARY CONVERGENCE AXIS
IN ASSOC/W A CDFNT CROSSING THE AREA HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF
KMSL SO SHRA THERE ARE NOT EXPECTED.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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