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Area Forecast Discussion
339 FXUS64 KHUN 261748 AAC AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1248 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016 .UPDATE... For 18Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... (Issued 945 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016) The last warm day of the forecast period is underway across the Tennessee Valley, with a cold front knocking on the door of NW AL. Temperatures currently range from the middle/upper 70s (and are expected to top out in the mid/upper 80s later today). A prefrontal trof is traversing the area this morning, as evident by both visible satellite and radar imagery (of waves propagating E/SE ahead of the main front to the NW). This has sparked a broken line of showers oriented SW to NE, and filling in a bit more with every volume scan over the last hour. The main story for today will be cold front to our west, its eventual movement across/through the area, and what convection will be associated with it. Overall, QPF is expected to be less than a quarter inch or so, and POPs are widely scattered for the afternoon (with slightly higher chances over NE AL this aftn). Otherwise, in the wake of the front later today, winds will shift to the N/NW, gusting to arnd 15kts at times. The majority of the forecast was in great shape and handled both observational and expected trends well, though some tweaks were made to the sky grids to account for the broken line of showers developing attm. No additional changes were warranted. Updated zones out shortly. 12 && .AVIATION... For 18Z TAFs: A transitional period as a cold front moves across the region. Limited moisture/instability should keep shower coverage isolated to scattered at times. As such, included VCSH in for both sites this afternoon. Not enough confidence to include thunder this issuance, but an isolated storm cannot be totally ruled out. Winds across the area should become NNW around 10kt this afternoon and evening. Colder air and post-frontal showers should produce MVFR CIGs during the late night. VFR weather should return after daybreak as drier air dissipates lower level clouds over the region. RSB && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.