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Area Forecast Discussion

719
FXUS64 KHUN 310748
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
248 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE S.E U.S. CONTINUES
TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE FLORIDA
COASTLINE. THIS...AS WELL AS ERIKA`S REMNANT MOISTURE OFF THE S.E.
CAROLINA COAST...WILL HELP KEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. EMBEDDED WAVES/WEAK LOWS IN
THE UPPER PATTERN ARE THE FOCUS FOR ANY POTENTIAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN DRYING THROUGH THE PAST
FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY...WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAINS TO
WARRANT IT. TEMPS TODAY WILL ALSO BE COOLER THANKS TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

AS THE WEAK LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO BUILD...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH. TEMPS WILL RISE TUE/WED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT...INSTABILITY IS VERY LOW FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREFORE LOWERED POPS TO 10 PERCENT FOR TUE
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN A SHOWER OR TWO COULD POP UP
BUT THINKING THE CHANCES WILL BE LOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO BECOME PRESENT ON THURSDAY WITH THE
HANDLING OFF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW AND ASSOCIATED
RIDING OVER THE REST OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL IMPACT HOW AN UPPER CUT
OFF LOW OVER THE GULF IMPACTS THE LOCAL AREA. 00Z/31 ECMWF HAS COME
IN MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND DRIER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH WPC`S GUIDANCE ON GOING WITH A NON ECMWF SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME. ECMWF IS CUTTING OFF THE LOW OVER MS/AL AND GIVING THE
AREA MUCH MORE UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER THU-SUN. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY THU/FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES
BUT CHANCES ARE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BE WET AS THERE IS EVIDENCE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION
AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR THE WEEKEND AND COOL SLIGHTLY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1155 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST REASONING.
ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH LGT E FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID SATURATION OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
BTWN 31/06-08Z...WITH MVFR STRATUS AND FOG BECOMING A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP PREVAILING MVFR CONDS IN THE CURRENT TAFS...
ALONG WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR CIGS/VSBY BTWN 11-13Z. FOG WILL LIKELY
LIFT/DISSIPATE BY 14Z...WITH SCT/BKN STRATOCU IN THE 3-5 KFT LAYER
ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD -- ALONG WITH LGT/VRBL WINDS.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    87  67  92  69 /  20  10  10  10
SHOALS        87  67  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
VINEMONT      83  67  88  69 /  20  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  84  66  88  67 /  20  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   83  67  88  69 /  20  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    83  66  87  67 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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