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Area Forecast Discussion

355
FXUS64 KHUN 021530 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1030 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...TO ADJUST POP GRADIENT AND LOWER HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN TENNESSEE
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY AN INCREASE IN HELICITY CAUSED
BY A MESOLOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

THIS ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NW
ALABAMA AROUND 11:30 AM. HIGHER POP WAS ADDED WEST OF INTERSTATE 65
AROUND 11 AM AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE REDUCING POP
TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR IS WEAK AT THIS TIME...AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IT
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TO AROUND 45 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A 50 KT 500 MB JET...MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
SMALL HAIL. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO...GIVEN
INSOLATION EVIDENT IN CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS
AS WELL AS PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT
NEAR THE MS/AR BORDER. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO NW AL
LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 15-17Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORMING
BEHIND THE LINE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
STORMS TODAY. MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE UNDER THUNDERSTORMS.

STORMS MAY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT BUT A TRAILING DECK OF LOW CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED FOR AREAS PRIMARILY EAST OF I-65 THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE
STORMS INTO THE TERMINALS.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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