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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KHUN 261548 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1048 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Morning update.


Today will feel like a copy of yesterday, hot with scattered showers
and thunderstorms. However, temps are warming up a little slower
than yesterday due to the lingering cloud cover and a few showers
that were in our eastern zones. 15Z temps are in the mid 80s but
will reach the low to mid 90s again today. Heat index values at 15Z
are already reaching 90 degrees. Those values will be climbing up to
100 to 105 degrees by this afternoon so don`t forget those heat
safety tips!

The boundary that sparked off development yesterday is still draped
north to south across east AL and central TN. The boundary combined
with daytime heating, a weak upper-level disturbance to our NW and
wedge front to the east...will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Did increase POPs a little and adjusted
the timing heading into this afternoon as well. Kept the trend of
slightly higher POPs in NE AL where the boundary is, however a
strong storm cannot be ruled out across the board.



(Issued 640 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
For 12Z TAFs: Upper level high pressure remains over the region today
but at the surface a frontal boundary has stalled out and is located
along and east of I-65. This should be the focus for the development
of thunderstorms later today. However, as is typical in the summer
time isolated storms are possible across the entire TN Valley this
afternoon. Have kept a VCTS in at both terminals from 19Z to 02Z due
to the low confidence in the timing of storms and if they will move
over either terminal. Expect very heavy rain with brief drops to IFR
conditions, strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail
near any thunderstorms that form today. Guidance has convection
tapering off after 02Z but could see an isolated storm continue
through 06Z. Patchy fog is possible again tonight from 08Z to 13Z.



.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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