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Area Forecast Discussion

157
FXUS64 KHUN 232317
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
617 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER
WEATHER PREVAILED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MID AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH SE WINDS OF
5-10 MPH. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS ON THUR CONTINUED TO BUILD EASTWARD...WITH IT NOW
CENTERED JUST OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A SE FLOW TO THE AREA...
BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF TAPING WARMTH (AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF REGION). SYNOPTICALLY...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND MOVED FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH
HAS RELAXED TROUGHING THAT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
YESTERDAY. OUT WEST...AN UPPER BLOCK REMAINS BUT WAS ON A DECAYING
TREND...AS ITS SOUTHERN LOW MOVED ACROSS THE UT/CO BORDER. TO ITS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ANOTHER VERY WET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED...AS A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INLAND/UP TERRAIN.

ONE MORE DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTROLS THE GENERAL WEATHER
SITUATION. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS CONTINUED A TREND OF A LOWER
LEVEL JET FORMING DURING OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
PASSING OVERHEAD WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA STARTING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NW ALABAMA MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER
RAIN CHANCE ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT AND MON...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS SUGGESTS LIKELY RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF I65 FOR MEMORIAL DAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPGLIDE WILL BRING LIKELY RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. POINT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...PEAKING IN THE
1.6 - 1.8 IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. THE STRONGER STORMS NEXT WEEK
WILL PRESENT PRIMARY THREATS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK...AS THE PRIMARY MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF SLACKENS.
DESPITE THAT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STAYED
ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND MON. WENT
CLOSE OR A BIT BELOW FOR THE WETTER PERIODS...TUE-THUR.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR AND FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
SUN WITH GUSTS 18-22KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER AMOUNTS. LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THEN RETURNS WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON CLOUDS BEING
SCT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BKN CIGS BEING REPORTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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