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Area Forecast Discussion

587
FXUS64 KHUN 311603 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1103 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC STILL HAS A LITTLE BIT OF INFLUENCE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...CAN SEE ON SATELLITE THE GULF MOISTURE FLOW STRETCH
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE MOVED THROUGH MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE HUN CWA THIS MORNING. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN NW AL. STARTING OUT WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN YESTERDAY...EXPECTING TEMPS TO
BE IN THE UPPER 80S. WITH NE AL ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD...THEY COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE SUNSHINE AND GET ABOVE
THAT. WITH THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASED...WINDS COULD BE
BREEZY TODAY. PWATS ARE HIGH AGAIN TODAY...AROUND 2 INCHES.

ADJUSTED TEMPS IN NE AL BY A DEGREE OR SO FOR TRENDS. LOWERED THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 18Z TODAY AS ONLY THE CENTRAL
CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES HAVE REALLY RECEIVED PRECIP THIS MORNING ALONG
A NORTHEAST AXIS. AS SUCH...ADJUSTED QPF AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
TREND.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH
DROPS TO MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES BTWN 13-17Z AT BOTH TAF SITES AS MORE
SHRA ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. OSCILLATIONS BTWN VFR AND
MVFR (IF NOT LOWER) CATEGORY IS LIKELY AGAIN BTWN 19-00Z AS
TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME PERIOD BTWN
00Z-12Z. HOWEVER, FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY DURING THE 06-12Z TIME
FRAME WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR TO IFR CAT BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAF
AT THIS TIME.

SL.77

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/
A DIP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...SOUTH OF A NORTHERN ALASKA UPPER
LOW...HAS RESULTED IN A GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. EAST OF THE TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC/EASTERN SEABOARD. A COPIOUS STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND REGION. THIS SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SIMILARLY MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAS MADE FOR A VERY MOISTURE LADEN
ATMOSPHERE...WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS PRESENTLY AROUND 2 INCHES.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED MOVING TO THE
NNE AWAY FROM THE REGION. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING OCCURRED MAINLY TO OUR NORTH.
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR INDICATED ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING TO THE
NE FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS
WEST OF I-65. ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AN
AVERAGE OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH OF NEEDED RAINS HAD OCCURRED.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS RAIN HAS MADE LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
FORMATION A POSSIBILITY BEFORE DAYBREAK.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS FORMING WEST OF JACKSON MS...IN PART
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. PER GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN AREAS TODAY. IN DEFERENCE TO THE HIRES AWR/NMM...HAVE INCHED
LIKELY POPS A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST TODAY...AND LEFT 50 POPS FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING
TONIGHT. THIS EXTRA DOSE OF MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD MAKE
FOG FORMATION A POSSIBLE ISSUE FOR LABOR DAY MORNING.

MONDAY OTHERWISE SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. THE RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN ON TUE...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THE GFS WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT NEARING THE AREA. THE
ECMWF AND NAM WAS SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THAT BOUNDARY. IN EITHER
CASE...THE BOUNDARY BECOMING STATIONARY NORTH OF US SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER (AND MAYBE A FEW MID 90S)...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF PERIOD. DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY FOR THE MID/LATTER PORTIONS
OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL WARRANT LOWER
END CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT SAT.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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