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Area Forecast Discussion

996
FXUS64 KHUN 040154
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
854 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
/ISSUED 322 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

A QUASI-SPLIT FLOW REGIME PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE POLAR
JET RELEGATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER MORE SUBTROPICAL
JET LIES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE OH/MS RIVER
CONFLUENCE TO THE NORTHEAST. A SHEARED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SUBTROPICAL JET AND A COUPLE OF OTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG PART OF A SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS LYING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN SITTING NEAR TN/KY BORDER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

SL.77

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL MOVING
ACROSS SE MISSOURI. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CWA AS OF 02Z. WILL
LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LACK OF COVERAGE
BUT STILL EXPECTING COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE WAVE INCHES
CLOSER. INSTABILITY IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS BUT WITH ENOUGH
SHEAR AND FORCING CANNOT RULE OUT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR A SEVERE STORM ARE LOW
AT THIS POINT WITH THE BIGGEST HAZARD BEING HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM.

TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST AS HAS BEEN
THE TREND THROUGH THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO COOL A WHOLE LOT
MORE WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER AROUND.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 630 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE KMSL AND KHSV TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIGHT RAIN MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS...HOWEVER
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EAST. A DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF STORMS
OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MAY REACH THE TERMINALS BEFORE 04Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER THIS FAR EAST...AND WILL
ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS. AS MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
ON SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY REGION THE FORECAST AREA BY 08Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
AFTER 18Z...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HAVE DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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