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Area Forecast Discussion

896
FXUS64 KHUN 172003
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
303 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT THIN HIGH CLOUDS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WERE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TRENDING OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING.

THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR INVOLVING SHIFTING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...WITH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE LOW.
WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHEAST ALABAMA. HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP
TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS. THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR INVOLVING MOVING THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM BY
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM
TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND THE COOLER GFS TEMPS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST MID TO
UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSIVE FLOW RESULTING IN CONTINUED MILD TEMPS FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS.

BEHIND THE TROUGH/WEAKENING FRONT...ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1243 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KHSV AND KMSL UNTIL
HIGH END MVFR CIGS MOVE IN AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BE ~10KTS WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND CIGS WILL BORDER LOW VFR
AND HIGH MVFR FRIDAY MORNING AS LIGHT RAIN APPROACHES THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE RAIN AT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME...AND
VIS RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL IF RAIN DOES OCCUR.

JMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    50  66  49  77 /  20  20  10   0
SHOALS        51  68  49  78 /  20  20  10   0
VINEMONT      49  65  47  76 /  20  20  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  48  65  46  75 /  10  20  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   49  65  46  76 /  20  20  10   0
FORT PAYNE    47  65  45  77 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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