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Area Forecast Discussion

116
FXUS64 KHUN 310858
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
358 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN PROGRESS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO A THUNDERY
24 HOURS OR SO AGO. CONVECTION THAT PRECEDED/ACCOMPANIED A PASSING
COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT NOW WAS WELL OFF OF THE SE COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOW STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM
NE OKLAHOMA TO NEAR MONTGOMERY AND MACON GA. A NW FLOW ALOFT HAS
CONTINUED A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. DESPITE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION AND NO CLOUDS...A DRY ENOUGH ATMOSPHERE HAS
KEPT FOG FORMATION AT BAY...THUS FAR. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY DEVELOPMENT AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BRIEF DRY SPELL NOW ON-GOING WILL COME TO AND END LATER THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURNS NORTHWARD...AND
ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN ON-GOING DRY CONDITIONS
AND NO RAIN IN SIGHT...HAVE DELAYED THE START OF PRECIP UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS INDICATED RATHER HEALTHY INSTABILITY
ALOFT...BOTH SHOWING CAPE VALUES IN THE UPPER HUNDREDS TO 1100
J/KG...ALONG WITH MODERATE HELICITY. THUS A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.

AN UNSETTLED MID WEEK WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS (DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREATS). THE
GFS/ECMWF IN THE GOOD FRIDAY TIME- FRAME WERE SIMILAR...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. GIVEN STRONGER FORCING...HAVE
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS FOR FRI. THE REST OF THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE DRY AND COOLER. THE EC HAS TRENDED COLDER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ITS MOS SHOWING 37 BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS WAS WARMER AROUND 40.
MAY BE A RISK OF SOME FROSTING TO START NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS...AND MORE CHANCES OF RAIN TO GET
A NEW WORK WEEK STARTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1202 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...CLR SKIES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM BUT CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 12Z DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SCT SHRA
AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY 13Z/14Z WITH A BETTER CHC AFTER 18Z DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD EXCEPT MVFR
IN TSRA.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    76  52  78  57 /  30  40  30  20
SHOALS        75  51  78  58 /  40  30  30  20
VINEMONT      72  51  74  58 /  40  40  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  73  49  73  56 /  20  30  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   71  51  73  55 /  40  40  30  20
FORT PAYNE    74  48  75  55 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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