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Area Forecast Discussion
340 FXUS64 KHUN 251538 AAC AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1038 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 .UPDATE...Raised high temperatures a bit west of I-65 and lowered pops. && .DISCUSSION... Mostly cloudy conditions and some virga continue to develop ahead of a weak convergence axis stretching from southwestern Kentucky southeast into Lawrence county(TN). This boundary has not moved much over the last few hours. Some mostly cloudy conditions extend southwest from this feature into Jackson/Cullman Counties (AL). Newest mesoscale models runs only forecast isolated showers or storms at best, even in Southern Middle Tennessee through the morning and early afternoon hours near this boundary. Based on the weak nature of this convergence and fairly dry air below 850 mb in place, this looks reasonable. Temperatures are already in the upper 70s to lower 80s in many locations (except maybe in our Tennessee counties and Jackson County, AL). With quite a bit of insolation expected through at least the mid-afternoon hours, bumped up highs in most locations into the 86 to 91 degree range. This may even be slightly too low. Increased cloud cover is expected over TN and extreme northwest Alabama late this afternoon. This will be in response to growing instability over the area, as another shortwave pushes into central/northern Tennessee in the mid to late afternoon hours. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm after 3 pm as this occurs. Near the AL/MS state line could see a bit higher coverage, but mesoscale models are very divergent on how far north this shortwave moves. Therefore, included only a 30 percent coverage over portions of northwest Alabama late this afternoon (while removing pop from much of northeastern AL and south of the TN river). Some gusty winds and brief heavy downpours are possible with this activity. KTW && .AVIATION... (Issued 827 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016) (Issued 657 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016) For 12Z TAFs: Weak upper-air disturbance continues to push slowly ewd across the region this morning, with bkn altostratus deck and some virga/light sprinkles expected to persist thru 16z. This will be replaced later this morning by sct-bkn ci debris clouds originating from MCS currently across western AR. Although bulk of pcpn associated with this feature will likely be steered to the n/w of the region, amds to include shra/tsra may be required later this aftn. Another weak disturbance will push across the area late tonight, bringing thicker mid/high-level clouds once again. A slightly greater threat for a few showers also will exist as the low-level jet strengthens after dark. Sw sfc flow in the 5-10 kt range will back to sse and diminish after sunset. 70/DD && .HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.