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Area Forecast Discussion

340
FXUS64 KHUN 251538 AAC
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1038 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...Raised high temperatures a bit west of I-65 and lowered
pops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly cloudy conditions and some virga continue to develop ahead of
a weak convergence axis stretching from southwestern Kentucky
southeast into Lawrence county(TN). This boundary has not moved much
over the last few hours. Some mostly cloudy conditions extend
southwest from this feature into Jackson/Cullman Counties (AL).

Newest mesoscale models runs only forecast isolated showers or
storms at best, even in Southern Middle Tennessee through the
morning and early afternoon hours near this boundary. Based on the
weak nature of this convergence and fairly dry air below 850 mb in
place, this looks reasonable. Temperatures are already in the upper
70s to lower 80s in many locations (except maybe in our Tennessee
counties and Jackson County, AL). With quite a bit of insolation
expected through at least the mid-afternoon hours, bumped up highs
in most locations into the 86 to 91 degree range. This may even be
slightly too low.

Increased cloud cover is expected over TN and extreme northwest
Alabama late this afternoon. This will be in response to growing
instability over the area, as another shortwave pushes into
central/northern Tennessee in the mid to late afternoon hours.
Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm after 3 pm as this
occurs. Near the AL/MS state line could see a bit higher coverage,
but mesoscale models are very divergent on how far north this
shortwave moves. Therefore, included only a 30 percent coverage over
portions of northwest Alabama late this afternoon (while removing pop
from much of northeastern AL and south of the TN river). Some gusty
winds and brief heavy downpours are possible with this activity.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 827 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016)
(Issued 657 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016)
For 12Z TAFs: Weak upper-air disturbance continues to push slowly ewd
across the region this morning, with bkn altostratus deck and some
virga/light sprinkles expected to persist thru 16z. This will be
replaced later this morning by sct-bkn ci debris clouds originating
from MCS currently across western AR. Although bulk of pcpn
associated with this feature will likely be steered to the n/w of the
region, amds to include shra/tsra may be required later this aftn.
Another weak disturbance will push across the area late tonight,
bringing thicker mid/high-level clouds once again. A slightly greater
threat for a few showers also will exist as the low-level jet
strengthens after dark. Sw sfc flow in the 5-10 kt range will back to
sse and diminish after sunset.

70/DD

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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at weather.gov/huntsville.



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