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Area Forecast Discussion

774
FXUS64 KHUN 281917
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
217 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATED THAT A LINGERING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT 500 MILLIBARS WAS THE
CULPRIT TODAY INVOLVING THE INCREASING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND INTO NORTH ALABAMA. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

PWAT VALUES REMAINED IN THE 1.70 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.7 INCHES THROUGH
FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER END CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING WITH
THE SLOWER MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS AGAIN RESULTING IN A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IN A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE THERE ARE SATURATED SOILS. WILL BE
WATCHING NORTHWEST ALABAMA PARTICULARLY...WHERE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXPECT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST-SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS
ALSO INDICATE THAT A SLOW MOVING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO MAKE IT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT
VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1.5 TO NEARLY 1.7 INCHES THROUGH
SUNDAY...AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE CONTINUED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINING A POSSIBILITY.

THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS DISSIPATE THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1239 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT AND WILL LEAVE CONDITIONS IN
VFR CATEGORY WITH A FEW/SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AOA 2KFT CONTINUING TO
LINGER OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH PEAK
HEATING WILL HELP TO KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS UP TO 20-30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OF THE STORMS TODAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. TONIGHT...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP WITH CIGS IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO IFR BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN
THE TIMING OR DURATION AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.

STUMPF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    67  86  67  87 /  40  50  20  50
SHOALS        66  84  66  85 /  40  50  20  50
VINEMONT      65  82  65  84 /  40  50  20  50
FAYETTEVILLE  65  82  66  84 /  40  50  20  50
ALBERTVILLE   66  82  64  85 /  40  50  20  40
FORT PAYNE    65  83  63  85 /  40  50  20  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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