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Area Forecast Discussion

779
FXUS64 KHUN 141113 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
613 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 158 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
WILL GO WITH THE GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE TN VALLEY FINALLY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS WERE STILL JUST
NE AND SW OF OUR CWA. THUS WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUN TODAY SO RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM MOS. THE OLD CDFNT TO OUR SOUTH PLUS DAYTIME
HEATING WILL KICK OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
THIS AFTN/EVENING. WILL KEEP OUR CWA DRY FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER WAVE/CDFNT WILL AFFECT THE TN
VALLEY WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA. WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS/INSTABILITIES NOT
EXPECTING ANY SVR WX...BUT SOME STORMS MAY HAVE GUSTY WINDS/BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE A LITTLE WITH THE CHC AND
TIMING OF PCPN. NAM KEEPS TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN DRY WITH CHC OF PCPN
TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE. ECMWF KEEP
THE CHC OF PCPN MAINLY DURING THE MRNG AND TAPERING OFF BY AFTN...
AND GONE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS HINTS AT SOME LIGHT PCPN EAST OF I65
TUESDAY MRNG...THEN DRY BY NOON. IN A NUTSHELL WILL GO WITH THE DRIER
GFS FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS PIN DOWN IF AND WHEN WE WILL SEE
ANY PCPN ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS VERY LITTLE TO NO
PCPN DURING THIS PERIOD...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS LOOKS TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S WITH MRNG LOWS IN THE LOW 60S.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION
FROM THE W...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AS WELL HEADING
INTO THE EVENING HRS.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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