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Area Forecast Discussion

222
FXUS64 KHUN 251117 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
617 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 150 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SE THRU THE
CAROLINAS WHILE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE SWRN THRU CENTRAL CONUS.
A WEAK TROF/COOL FRONT (MAINLY A MOISTURE BOUNDARY) WAS SITUATED FROM
WI THRU IA INTO WRN KS. A TONGUE OF GULF MOISTURE WAS FLOWING THRU
WRN TX INTO KS AND MO AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
INTO OUR REGION TODAY, BUT LIKELY ONLY LEAD TO NOTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED AFTN CU. WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH FULL SUN SHOULD ENABLE
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE M-U70S THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS APPEAR
RATHER FAVORABLE FOR AREAS-WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
WITH A COMBINATION OF ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING.
DENSE FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM AND WILL INCLUDE IN THE HWO. THE COOL
FRONT STALLS OUT IN A NW-SE ORIENTATION FROM SERN MO INTO NRN GA
SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL INFLUENCE OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY EQUATING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER MORNING LOWS THAN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN ENVELOP THE AREA ON
MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE WARMTH. THE
SHORTENING DAYS WILL LIMIT HEATING, BUT A FEW U80S ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FROM
THE NW. UPPER AIR DYNAMICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AS THE MAIN
UPPER JET AND SHORTWAVE REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. NEVERTHELESS,
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT GENERATES A RATHER CONTINUOUS LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA BY BOTH GFS/ECMWF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHC
POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND
THIS FRONT, SO A DRY AND COOL DAYS 6-7 ARE BEING FORECAST ATTM. FROST
MAY BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS WELL BY THE MORNING OF DAY 8 JUST
BEYOND THIS PACKAGE.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 26/08-09Z.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATION FOG TONIGHT. THE EXTENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE FOG IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE FAVORED NEAR LAKES AND IN NARROW VALLEYS. FOR NOW...MVFR
FOG WAS INCLUDED IN BOTH KHSV/KMSL TAF SITES AFTER 09/08Z,
RESPECTIVELY.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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