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Area Forecast Discussion
114 FXUS64 KHUN 240219 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 919 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016 .UPDATE... No major changes to fcst attm. && .DISCUSSION... Cdfnt continues to stretch from MO thru the mid Atlantic states. The upper flow should keep most of the current convection north/east of the TN Valley overnight. Also may be too much subsidence across the area with the upper ridge over much of the sern US. However there may be a few outflow boundaries that could drift towards the cwa overnight producing an isolated shra or tsra, mainly over srn mid TN. For now will go ahead and keep slight pops across the cwa for the overnight. Otherwise rest of fcst looks on track. 007 && .AVIATION... (Issued 629 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016) For 00Z TAFs: A large upper ridge still covers much of the sern US while a cdfnt extends from ern KS to the Ohio Valley. There could be a few boundaries from the convection to our north that may drift towards the TN Valley after midnight, which could produce an isolated shra or tsra. However based on the HRRR this scenario does not look that good attm. For now will not keep any pcpn in tafs tonight, since any pcpn would likely be north of the taf sites. On Friday, NAM also shows the chc of widespread pcpn on the iffy side. Thus will keep pcpn out of tafs for Friday as well. Otherwise vfr conditions are expected thru the fcst period. 007 && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 629 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016) (Issued 327 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016) The synoptic pattern currently in place over much of the southeast will generally persist through the weekend. Strong mid-level ridging (500 hpa heights ranging from 592-594 dam) is expected to linger over the region with only a couple minor perturbations in the pattern as some a couple vort maxes shift across the TN Valley tomorrow and Saturday.While these vort maxes could support a couple showers or a thunderstorm tonight/tomorrow, the main concern for the next few days will continue to be the heat index flirting with advisory criteria. For the rest of today and through tonight... current obs are showing dew points slightly mixing down over the last couple of hours as the inversion from this morning is breaking down. With temps currently ranging from the mid 90s west to upper 80s further east in the higher elevation, and dew points holding steady or lowering, do not anticipate heat advisory conditions being met over a widespread area. Later tonight and through the early morning, a weak surface boundary dipping south may try and bring some minor (but brief) upper level support for shower/thunderstorm development. High res ensemble guidance shows isolated to scattered showers/storms following the east- west moisture gradient which would favor the central and west part of the CWA. Will hold pops only around 30 percent for the north and western portion of the CWA given the overall lack of mid level moisture. For the rest of the weekend... model soundings are indicating PW increasing slightly for tomorrow afternoon and into Saturday, mainly favoring the western CWA. While there will be a chance of a shower or storm during the afternoons/evenings the main concern will again be the heat. Heat index across the northern and western CWA will again approach the 100 degree mark with isolated areas reaching near 105. Not anticipating a heat advisory at the moment, however. Through mid week... we will be keeping our eyes on a frontal boundary shifting through the TN Valley and potentially stalling near the CWA. This scenario, which the globals models are hinting at, could give us some needed relief from the warm temps and lack of rain. Barron && .HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.