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Area Forecast Discussion

166
FXUS64 KHUN 291908
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
208 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT HAD MOVED WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...EXTENDING NORTHEAST
INTO NORTH GEORGIA. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING SHIFTING AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR THE GFS TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPS ON THURSDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z FRIDAY...AND INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE FALL SEASON THUS FAR. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING...AS THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE QUICK UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO RAPIDLY DROP TO THE LOW-MID 30S
BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 1032 MILLIBAR AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO EXIST ACROSS THE REGION IN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A 500
MILLIBAR LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY
SATURDAY. IT WILL BE AT LEAST 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL ON
SATURDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT TO AROUND 50/LOWER
50S. FOR NOW...HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COLDER ECMWF AND
WARMER GFS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO BE SITUATED FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A LIGHT
NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT...EXPECT THAT TEMPS COULD MAKE IT ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW
HOURS ON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE GFS MODEL IS NOW IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF MODEL TEMP SOLUTION FOR LOW TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLIGHTING THE FREEZING TEMPS BY THURSDAYS
PACKAGE IF THE TRENDING CONTINUES.

DURING THE LATE SUNDAY TIME FRAME...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS BEGIN TO
SHIFT THE TROUGH/WEAK 500 MILLIBAR LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. AN ADJOINING
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE EAST AND EXTEND
SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH ARKANSAS AND NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF
MODEL IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS INVOLVING MOVING THE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
TOWARD THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS SLOWER
AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH TRENDING...WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS AND WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA BY
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY INTO THE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS...HAVE FOLLOWED WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE...AND HAVE LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS TEMPS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1219 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD, ASIDE FROM
SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING, WITH
ONLY A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    42  66  43  60 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        41  66  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      43  66  43  62 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  39  63  40  59 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   41  66  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    41  66  40  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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