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Area Forecast Discussion

114
FXUS64 KHUN 240219
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
919 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
No major changes to fcst attm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Cdfnt continues to stretch from MO thru the mid Atlantic states. The
upper flow should keep most of the current convection north/east of
the TN Valley overnight. Also may be too much subsidence across the
area with the upper ridge over much of the sern US. However there
may be a few outflow boundaries that could drift towards the cwa
overnight producing an isolated shra or tsra, mainly over srn mid TN.
For now will go ahead and keep slight pops across the cwa for the
overnight. Otherwise rest of fcst looks on track.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 629 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016)
For 00Z TAFs: A large upper ridge still covers much of the sern US
while a cdfnt extends from ern KS to the Ohio Valley. There could be
a few boundaries from the convection to our north that may drift
towards the TN Valley after midnight, which could produce an
isolated shra or tsra. However based on the HRRR this scenario does
not look that good attm. For now will not keep any pcpn in tafs
tonight, since any pcpn would likely be north of the taf sites. On
Friday, NAM also shows the chc of widespread pcpn on the iffy side.
Thus will keep pcpn out of tafs for Friday as well. Otherwise vfr
conditions are expected thru the fcst period.

007

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
(Issued 629 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016)
 (Issued 327 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016)
The synoptic pattern currently in place over much of the southeast
will generally persist through the weekend. Strong mid-level ridging
(500 hpa heights ranging from 592-594 dam) is expected to linger over
the region with only a couple minor perturbations in the pattern as
some a couple vort maxes shift across the TN Valley tomorrow and
Saturday.While these vort maxes could support a couple showers or a
thunderstorm tonight/tomorrow, the main concern for the next few days
will continue to be the heat index flirting with advisory criteria.

For the rest of today and through tonight... current obs are showing
dew points slightly mixing down over the last couple of hours as the
inversion from this morning is breaking down. With temps currently
ranging from the mid 90s west to upper 80s further east in the higher
elevation, and dew points holding steady or lowering, do not
anticipate heat advisory conditions being met over a widespread
area. Later tonight and through the early morning, a weak surface
boundary dipping south may try and bring some minor (but brief)
upper level support for shower/thunderstorm development. High res
ensemble guidance shows isolated to scattered showers/storms
following the east- west moisture gradient which would favor the
central and west part of the CWA. Will hold pops only around 30
percent for the north and western portion of the CWA given the
overall lack of mid level moisture.

For the rest of the weekend... model soundings are indicating PW
increasing slightly for tomorrow afternoon and into Saturday, mainly
favoring the western CWA. While there will be a chance of a shower or
storm during the afternoons/evenings the main concern will again be
the heat. Heat index across the northern and western CWA will again
approach the 100 degree mark with isolated areas reaching near 105.
Not anticipating a heat advisory at the moment, however.

Through mid week... we will be keeping our eyes on a frontal
boundary shifting through the TN Valley and potentially stalling
near the CWA. This scenario, which the globals models are hinting at,
could give us some needed relief from the warm temps and lack of
rain.

Barron

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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at weather.gov/huntsville.



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