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Area Forecast Discussion

624
FXUS64 KHUN 181609 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1109 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEDGE RIDGE IS STILL SITUATED OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WHILE A
GULF LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST UP INTO AL..GA AND FL. ANOTHER SMALL TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN TODAY WITH THE SLIGHT CAD IN PLACE ALONG
WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH THE
DAY /AS SEEN ON VIS SATELLITE/. THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT PRECIP WILL MAINLY CATCH THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
INCREASED THE POPS AND QPF BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 732 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS...RADAR/SATELLITE DATA CONFIRM INCREASING IMPACTS AT
BOTH MSL/HSV THIS MORNING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE NE GULF. ALTHOUGH OBS CURRENTLY INDICATE BKN AS ARND 6-7 KFT
BENEATH OVC CI...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO 3500 FT AS LIGHT PCPN
SPREADS NWD INTO THE REGION. WITH THE LOW-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SATURATED EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...
HAVE INCLUDED -RA IN TAF FOR MSL BTWN 18/14-20Z AND HSV BTWN 14-22Z
ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS /2500 FT/. CONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY LATE
AFTN AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIP SHIFTS
STEADILY EWD. SCT CI WILL REMAIN PSBL AT MSL THRU END OF PERIOD...
WITH HSV LIKELY IMPACTED BY WRAP-AROUND STRATUS IN LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW.
WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL BACK FROM ESE-NNE/NNW WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/
AREA RADARS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP A FEW ECHOES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING, WITH THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWFA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW IN THE NRN
GOMEX, DEVELOPING AS THE SFC REFLECTION OF AN APPROACHING H5 TROF
CURRENTLY EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS OF 8Z. AS THIS FEATURE
DEEPENS, AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE GOMEX AS WELL LATER THIS
MORNING (BY 12Z), ALL SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/EAST FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND (EVENTUALLY ENDING UP OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
BY EASTER SUNDAY MORNING). IN ADDITION TO THIS, ANOTHER WEAK SFC
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING,
WITH A FEW SHOWERS FIRING UP ALONG THE MS RIVER AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INCREASES IN THIS REGION. FURTHER WEST, TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE
ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST; ONE OVER SOCAL AND THE OTHER IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PHASE TOGETHER LATER IN THE PERIOD,
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHERWISE, FOR TODAY, NOT MUCH HAS REALLY CHANGED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED THERE, WITH THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SHOWERS
FLIRTING WITH OUR SOUTHERN/EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NEWRD. GIVEN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
(WRF/HRRR/NAM), HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN
LOCATIONS, AND HAVE ALSO ADDED POPS FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT AS THE RAIN
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION, MAKING FOR A WARM
AND DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 75-80F RANGE
WITH MORNING LOWS BETWEEN 45-50F, MAKING FOR GREAT WEATHER FOR
EASTER EGG HUNTS SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE CONUS THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, THEY WILL PHASE JUST SOUTH/WEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWFA OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME,
AND WITH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THIS MORNING, POPS WERE
INCREASED DURING THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
FURTHER SOUTH/EAST IT TRAVELS ACROSS THE AREA, ONLY GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ANTICIPATED.

BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME, RIDGING AT THE SFC/ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA
AND SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING SWRLY FLOW TO MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH MORNING LOWS INCREASING THROUGH
THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S, BUT BY
FRIDAY, LOWS WILL HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 6O DEGREES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHERMAKER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MODELS AREN`T IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT, SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST JUST YET.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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