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Area Forecast Discussion

116
FXUS64 KHUN 301617 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1117 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...TO ADJUST POP AND LOWER CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL REFLECT DRIER AIR THAT ADVECTED AND MIXED
DOWN ALOFT OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA YESTERDAY...WITH SOME DEWPOINTS
STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. FURTHER
WEST...MORE MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S. HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE ALSO NOSING
NORTHWARD INTO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER...LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA SLOWLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WEAKENING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AXIS THIS MORNING. THEN RE-INVIGORATING THE ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF IT AROUND 2 OR 3 PM AS IT MOVES EAST INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA. KEPT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THEN.

HIGHER DEWPOINTS /AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES/ AND SOME INSOLATION
DUE TO BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AL AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE AFTER 2 PM. CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG LOOKS
REASONABLE...AND WITH 40KT OF BULK SHEAR FORECAST BY MODELS...STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A WEAK AND BRIEF
TORNADO DEVELOPING...BUT NON-EXISTENT OR VERY LOW HELICITY VALUES DO
NOT SUPPORT MUCH TORNADOGENSIS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE NEAR AND WEST OF I-65...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS
FURTHER EAST AS WELL. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S LOOK REASONABLE.
TRIMMED CLOUD COVER BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 626 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDS PREVAIL FOR NOW AT BOTH MAIN TERMINALS
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE CHANGING LATER TODAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS ARE XPCTED TO LOWER
CLOSER TO MVFR HEIGHTS...AS SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
CIGS/VIS MAY BE REDUCED FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHRA/TSRA...WITH VRB WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25-30KT. PRECIP MAY THEN
TAPER OFF SOME LATE THIS EVENING WITH MORE MID LEVEL CIGS
XPCTED...WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.
MAINTAINED AMD NOT SKED IN THE KMSL TAF DUE TO LINGERING COMMS ISSUE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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