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Area Forecast Discussion

659
FXUS64 KHUN 302331 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
631 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
THAT A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS RIDGING SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE
LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED
TO BE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. A SECONDARY AND
STRONGER COLD FRONT WAS PROGRESSIVELY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT. TEMPS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WERE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN NORTH ALABAMA UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE FAVORABLE INVOLVING MOVING THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE SECONDARY AND STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 18Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
AS A LAGGING 500 MILLIBAR LOW IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO BE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 00Z SATURDAY.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STEADY/SLOWLY FALL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM JUST TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z SATURDAY AND 12Z SATURDAY.
A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND
STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT IS PROGGED TO BUILD SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW
DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE
10 MPH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY
FROST FORMATION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
FOR ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THAT THE COLDEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF FROST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND AM CONCERNED ABOUT
FREEZING TEMPS FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT TEMPS MAY REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR THREE PLUS HOURS. WILL FURTHER ADDRESS THE
FREEZING THREAT BY FRIDAY AND MORE BY THE SATURDAY FORECAST.

BY 00Z MONDAY...THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BY MONDAY WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR
AGREEMENT IN EJECTING SHORT WAVE ENERGY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. BY MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MODELS SLOWLY DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. FROM MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR...AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THAT
THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLOWING DOWN SLIGHTLY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE MODELS CLOSE OFF A 500 MILLIBAR LOW ACROSS
WEST TEXAS BY 00Z THURSDAY...MORE 500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OFF AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY
TO GFS/ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE MSL
AND HSV TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN MID LEVEL
DECK BY 04Z...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY. DURING THE AFTERNOON...WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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