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Area Forecast Discussion

278
FXUS64 KHUN 252050
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
350 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO
LATENT HEATING EFFECTS AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING NEWD
OVER THE REGION. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY HAVE PRODUCED
SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AND MINOR PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADS/IN LOW LYING AREAS. LATEST SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A
SECOND BATCH OF MORE ORGANIZED ENERGY OUT OF SE TX LIFTING TO THE NE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEREBY APPROACHING THE MID SOUTH/TN
VALLEY REGIONS TUE MORNING. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR BECOMING MORE
ENHANCED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL MCS...STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON TUE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
BIGGER THREAT...TO GO ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE EXTENT
OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION THOUGH IF THE
AIRMASS DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RECOVER BASED ON WHAT
MORNING CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

SHOWERS/TSTMS THEN LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF GOING INTO THE
EVENING HRS TUE WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING...ALTHOUGH WEAK
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES CONTINUING TO PASS OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MORE OF
A DIURNAL TREND IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS THEN XPCTED TO EVOLVE
AFTER MID WEEK...AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GULF REGION. WITH A SUBTROPICAL SFC RIDGE ANCHORED OFF OF
THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC COASTS AS WELL...A PERSISTENT INFLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH AN UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN ISO/SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIODS. WITH NO REAL FOCUS MECH IN PLACE
FOR THE CONVECTION...MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
AIRMASS IN NATURE. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL TRENDS
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MID 80S AND
LOWS PREDOM IN THE MID 60S.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
A FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL
CONTINUE A TREND OF INCLEMENT FLYING WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH AN EMBEDDED T-STORM WERE ORIENTED IN A SSW TO
NNE LINE FROM E OF THE MS DELTA TO S-CENTRAL KY. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED VIS/
CIG REDUCTIONS TO IFR...POSSIBLY LOWER. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION
IS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING TUE MORNING...WITH MORE TEMPO
REDUCTION OF VIS/CIG VALUES FROM HEAVY RAINS AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  80  66  84 /  40  80  50  40
SHOALS        66  80  65  83 /  50  80  50  40
VINEMONT      66  79  65  81 /  50  80  50  40
FAYETTEVILLE  65  79  65  81 /  40  80  50  40
ALBERTVILLE   65  80  65  81 /  40  80  50  40
FORT PAYNE    65  79  65  80 /  40  80  50  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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