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Area Forecast Discussion

214
FXUS64 KHUN 250828
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
228 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF BUT WILL LEAN MORE WITH GFS/ECMWF
FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. WENT WITH CONSALL FOR
EXTENDED FCST.

THERE IS A COUPLE OF FLIES IN THE ONITMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FCST. THE FIRST ONE IS THE CHC OF PCPN TONIGHT AND THE SECOND
ONE IS THE CHC OF MORE PCPN WEDNESDAY AFTN/NIGHT

ATTM MAINLY CI CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 40S...ALONG WITH A FEW MID/UPPER 30S. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM ERN TX THRU THE TN VALLEY AND INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC. THE CDFNT THAT MOVED ACROSS OUR CWA YESTERDAY IS
NOW STRETCHING ALONG THE EAST COAST TO NW FL. WHILE AT 5H A BROAD
UPPER TROF WAS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WAS FLOWING ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF...FROM THE
SERN US AND ALONG MUCH OF THE EAST COAST.

FOR TODAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY. TONIGHT A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE CDFNT
MENTIONED ABOVE. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FROM THE WEST. BOTH GFS/ECMWF KEEPS MOST...IF
NOT ALL...OF THE PCPN JUST EAST OF OUR CWA. THE NAM IS THE ODD MAN
OUT WITH A CHC OF PCPN OVER NE AL BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH GFS/ECMWF AND KEEP IT DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR TONIGHT.

AS THE SFC LOW/UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY
MRNG...HERE COMES A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM/CDFNT THAT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTN/NIGHT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHC OF
PCPN WILL STAY NORTH OF THE CWA. ALSO MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE
MAY BE TOO LIMITED FOR PCPN. THUS WILL KEEP ALL OF WEDNESDAY
(MRNG/AFTN/NIGHT) DRY ATTM.

ON TURKEY DAY...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEHIND THE
ABOVE MENTIONED CDFNT. MRNG LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S WITH AFTN
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME THE TN VALLEY WILL BE UNDER
HIGH PRESSURES AND A WARMING TREND. ALSO THE CHC OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PCPN LOOKS IFFY ATTM. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S BUT BY
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE CWA ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW. MODELS ALSO SHOW A CDFNT THAT MAY STALL OUT ALONG THE
KY/TN BORDER. THIS WOULD KEEP A CHC OF SHRA MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE TN RIVER. ONE NICE THING IS THAT HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE
IN THE MID 60S.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1114 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NNW IN THE 5-10KT RANGE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. A STREAM OF MOISTURE ALOFT MOVING FROM SW-NE WILL BRING
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY
LOWERING DURING TUE. BY TUE NIGHT...SCATTERED CLOUDS IN THE 5-6KFT
ARE EXPECTED. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM MOVING TO
THE NE FROM THE GULF SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    53  32  54  34 /  10  10  10  10
SHOALS        54  31  55  35 /  10  10  10  10
VINEMONT      53  32  54  34 /  10  10  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  52  32  53  33 /  10  10  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   54  33  54  32 /  10  10  10  10
FORT PAYNE    56  34  53  34 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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