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Area Forecast Discussion

465
FXUS64 KHUN 171837
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
137 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SMALL MCSS CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL THERMAL
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. THE CONVECTION ERODES QUICKLY
UPON REACHING DRY LOW LEVELS ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT, BUT THERE ARE MORE INDICATIONS,
ESPECIALLY VIA THE NAM, THAT AT LEAST SOME SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. DRY LOW LEVEL
SOUNDINGS PROMPT ONLY A LOW POP AT THIS POINT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NELY
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR THRU THURSDAY BEFORE VEERING TO A MORE E-SELY
MOIST FLOW. THIS FLOW PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTIVE
PRECIP TO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND, BUT
HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND AS WELL, BUT WILL HAVE
A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THIS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FEW CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE LOOK TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. A COOL FRONT ARRIVES ON
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A STRONG NW FLOW WAVE TRACKS THRU
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. QG DYNAMICS APPEAR WEAK ON
OUR PORTION OF THE FRONT, SO HAVE KEPT THE POP LOW ATTM. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER WX IS EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME WITH
CONSISTENCY AND POSITION OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
WILL LEAVE DAYS 6-7 ALONE FOR NOW.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1235 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY ISOL -SHRA
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE PERIOD (12-15Z), BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. FOG FORMATION DOES NOT LOOK POSSIBLE TONIGHT GIVEN THE
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
(15-25KFT).

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    59  82  59  86 /  20  20   0   0
SHOALS        60  83  57  85 /  20  20   0   0
VINEMONT      58  79  59  86 /  20  20   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  57  80  56  83 /  10  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   57  80  59  85 /  20  20   0  10
FORT PAYNE    58  82  59  85 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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