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Area Forecast Discussion

613
FXUS64 KHUN 121226
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
626 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ADDED FLURRIES TO THE MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR RETURNS THAT WERE BEING MONITORED OVERNIGHT HAVE INCREASED IN
INTENSITY IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY REPORTS AT THE AUTOMATED
STATIONS...WINCHESTER POLICE DEPT DID REPORT A FEW MINUTES OF
FLURRIES WITH NO ACCUMULATION. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED FLURRIES TO THOSE
AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH 15Z AS THERE ARE STILL SOME RADAR RETURNS BACK
TO THE NW MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. EVEN WITH TEMPS AROUND 35-36...IT
IS COLD ENOUGH ALOFT TO PRODUCE SNOW AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SEE
A FEW FLURRIES AT THE SURFACE.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 551 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH UPPER NW FLOW ACROSS THE CWA...EXPECT MAINLY
SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV.

007

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 314 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/
A DEEP UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY THIS MORNING WITH
A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING OVER THE AREA AS OF 09Z AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVERNIGHT
BUT THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND...LIKELY
DUE TO THE LOWER DEW POINTS AND CLOUD BASES AROUND 10KFT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGHS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.

NW FLOW MOVES IN BY THE AFTERNOON USHERING IN COLD ADVECTION ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S
BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WILL
LINGER WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME LOW-MID CLOUDS HANGING
AROUND. THINK THE CURRENT LOWS ARE A GENERAL MIDDLE GUIDANCE AND IF
CLEAR SKIES OCCUR TEMPS THEY COULD DROP A FEW DEG LOWER. WINDS WILL
NOT BE DROPPING OFF OVERNIGHT (HELPING THE LOWS TO NOT COMPLETELY
BOTTOM OUT) AND EVEN GUST TO AROUND 15 MPH. THIS WILL PUT WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

GUIDANCE CAME IN EVEN A DEG OR TWO COOLER FOR SATURDAY`S HIGHS IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE STRONG 1035MB ARCTIC HIGH
BUILDING IN THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING
IN SOME AREAS AND WILL GET INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN MOST
SPOTS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN TONIGHT WITH
THE SAME CAVEAT IN TERMS OF CLOUDS. GUSTY WINDS OF 15-20MPH ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 20S AND IN THE TEENS SAT NIGHT.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH TOWARDS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AS A WARM
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. LOOKS LIKE THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH SUNDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...TO GENERALLY ERODE THE ARCTIC AIR AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE HELP OF THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE HIGH. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN EXCEPT
FOR AREAS IN NE AL/SRN MIDDLE TN WHERE SLEET/SNOW COULD MIX IN AT
TIMES AS LOWS DROP TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SLEET PELLETS MIXED IN EVERYWHERE AS THE SURFACE COOLS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL LOCATIONS. LATEST
NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS AS
WELL AND SUPPORT THIS FORECAST.

THE LATEST ECMWF HAS ALSO COME INTO LINE WITH THE GFS WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MONDAY OVER TEXAS WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER LA/MS MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW THEN TRACKS ACROSS
THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES AND OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS
RIGHT NOW ARE 1-1.5 INCHES BUT THIS MAY BE INCREASED IF THIS TRACK
OF THE LOW HOLDS. LINGERING PRECIP TUE MORNING IN THE NORTHERN MOST
AREAS MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN BUT THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPS SHOULDN`T
MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH WITH LOWS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 30S. ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWS TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT TUESDAY EVENING.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WED-FRI AND AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP HIGHS RISE INTO THE UPPER
50S AND EVEN INTO THE LOWER 60S POSSIBLY BY FRIDAY.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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