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Area Forecast Discussion

989
FXUS64 KHUN 281932
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
132 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS DIRECTING W-WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN DRAMATIC DOWNSLOPE/CHINOOK
WARMING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WAS SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF COASTAL
REGION. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE TEENS TO L20S THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE TN VALLEY. FURTHER WEST, A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SD THRU
MO INTO MS. A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE WAS FEEDING
INTO TX AND OK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S- 50S.

AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SW ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MIDDLE SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY THE TN VALLEY. A DECK OF SHALLOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NW AL ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD ACROSS NRN AL
AND SRN TN BY SATURDAY EVENING. IT IS DEBATABLE WHETHER THESE CLOUDS
MAY "MIX OUT", SO HAVE SOMEWHAT DELAYED THE SKY COVERAGE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE CLOUDS.

UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE REGION. THE COLD
AIR WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW AS IT ENTERS SRN TN AND NRN AL LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE AN ANAFRONT, WITH
STRATIFORM CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOLLOWING IT`S PASSAGE.
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TS (SFC-BASED OR ELEVATED), SO
WILL HOLD OFF JUST YET ON ADDING ANY TS TO THE FORECAST. WITH A
QUASI-ZONAL W-E MID-UPPER AIRFLOW PATTERN, THE 1040-1045 MB ARCTIC
HIGH PROGGED TO BE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD
THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY, LIMITING PENETRATION OF THE COLDEST
AIRMASS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY PERSIST LONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY -RA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR EVEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF WARM-
UP THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE MODERATE HOWEVER.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH ABOUT 29/14-15Z AT
KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS. THEN, RAPID STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN MISS VALLEY SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW SO NO PRECIP
EXPECTED...BUT MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LIKELY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND MAY MAINTAIN SPEEDS AROUND 5-6 KTS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCH STRONGER SWRLY WINDS
IN THE INVERSION LAYER ALOFT (GTE 30 KTS) ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z
WITH NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS ANTICIPATED. LLWS WILL DECREASE WITH THE
ONSET OF MIXING AFTER 14-15Z.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    31  60  48  65 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        33  62  51  67 /   0   0  10  10
VINEMONT      33  60  50  66 /   0   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  32  58  48  65 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   29  59  44  63 /   0   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    28  59  43  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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