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Area Forecast Discussion

059
FXUS64 KHUN 251741
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1241 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
(Issued 1050 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016)
Surface Analysis this morning shows a cold front northwest of the
region with high pressure riding from the east firmly in place.
Gradual moisture advection from the southeast continues today which
will help maintain high humidity values across the area. This is
evident on the 12Z soundings from OHX and BMX showing PW around 1.7".
Combined with the warm air advection occurring over the past day or
two will push high temps into the 90s again today with apparent temps
approaching 105 in the western zones. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm
or two this afternoon, especially over the eastern zones, but
dynamics are not favorable for severe thunderstorms given weak lapse
rates mediocre updraft potential. For the morning update, only minor
amendments were made to PoPs so current forecast is on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
For 18Z TAFs: Strong heating beneath mid/upper-lvl ridge will
continue to force the development of isolated-widely sct shra and
perhaps a few tsra this aftn. However, given uncertainties on direct
impacts at a terminal, only VCSH will be included in the forecast
attm. Otherwise, we expect VFR conds to prevail with sct-bkn high-
based cu and an increasing coverage of higher altitude clouds
overnight. Patchy fog may once again develop near the MSL terminal --
and a tempo for 5 SM/BR has been included at this airport. A slightly
greater coverage of storms is anticipated tomorrow, courtesy of a
southward drifting cold front -- and VCTS was introduced at MSL
beginning at 26/15Z.

70/DD

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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at weather.gov/huntsville.



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