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Area Forecast Discussion

091
FXUS64 KHUN 272333 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
633 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA NESTLED IN
BETWEEN TWO POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND ONE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WAS BUILDING INTO THE AREA...AS THE LOW OVER TEXAS SLOWLY
PUSHES EASTWARD. A FAIRLY POTENT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED
MOVING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...WITH A VAST EXPANSE OF DENSE
CIRRUS FILTERING INTO THE AREA. THIS...ALONG WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...WAS HELPING KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL WARMING EXPECTED.

THE UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENSIS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
GULF COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY...BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AS THE  SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS EASTWARD. LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE ONSET...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT LOOK TO SATURATE UNTIL
AFTER 18Z ON TUESDAY. SO WILL CONTINUE ONLY A CHANCE POP IN PRIOR TO
THAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER...WHERE THE GREATER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THE OVERALL SET UP DOES
NOT LOOK TO SUPPORT EVEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY RAIN.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP
COMING TO AN END BY 00Z THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST...THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MAY IMPACT THE TN
VALLEY...AND WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN...HOWEVER NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY...INTO FRIDAY WITH STRONG CAA OCCURRING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. THE AXIS OF A SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEAVING DRY AND
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER...WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN AND 5KFT CIGS WILL MOVE IN AT THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. TIMING OF THE RAIN MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE ISSUANCE`S AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE E-NE.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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