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Area Forecast Discussion
733 FXUS64 KHUN 241945 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 245 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .DISCUSSION... Afternoon convection once again developing across parts of the area in response to latent heating, as temp trends climb into the lower to perhaps mid 90s. Heat indices for the most part are right around 100F, although these will likely climb a couple of more degrees in locations which do not receive any rainfall this afternoon. Activity is mainly low topped/water loaded convection, with very little in the way of lightning thus far. This will likely change though over the next few hrs as weakly sheared updrafts gain a little more momentum. This can certainly translate into a few strong tstms capable of gusty outflow winds and brief heavy rainfall, before overall activity diminishes early this evening with the loss of max heating. Overnight lows will again fall into the lower/mid 70s for most areas under partly cloudy/mostly clr skies. The latest model suites are still hinting at a weak frontal boundary out of the OH Valley/Midwest states dropping into the region during the day Mon, but likely stalling just n of the local area. What this means is another unseasonably hot/humid day Mon and again Tue, as Gulf moisture pools s of the boundary and temps climb well into the lower/mid 90s during the afternoon periods. A few areas, mainly over nw AL, may approach the 105F heat index mark during max heating. But this is not xpcted to be for a large area nor for a long period of time. With a slight increase in vertical shear, this may also result in a few more strong tstms with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall the main hazards. The latter half of the global model spreads are still showing the area under a general weakness aloft by mid week, with an upper ridge axis located w and e over the Desert SW and the ern Gulf region. This looks to result in perhaps a few more showers/tstms during the day, with max temps trending a little closer to normal values/or right around 90F thx to an overall increase in rain/cloud cover. Most of the convection still looks to wane in the evening hrs, with lows more in the lower 70s for most locations into next weekend. 09 && .AVIATION... (Issued 1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016) For 18Z TAFs: Scattered thunderstorms will occur this afternoon into early evening. These may affect both KMSL and KHSV vicinities through ~01Z. Gusty winds up to 35kt, heavy downpours reducing visibility to the IFR category for a brief period, and frequent cloud to ground lightning can be expected with the stronger thunderstorms. These thunderstorms should diminish or dissipate after 01Z. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are anticipated during the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Huntsville 73 96 74 95 / 20 30 20 30 Shoals 74 97 74 95 / 20 30 20 40 Vinemont 73 93 73 92 / 20 30 20 40 Fayetteville 70 91 72 91 / 20 40 20 40 Albertville 72 92 73 92 / 20 40 20 40 Fort Payne 71 92 71 91 / 20 40 20 40 && .HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.