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Area Forecast Discussion
171 FXUS64 KHUN 242004 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 304 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016 .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery and RAP H5 analysis indicated upper ridging in place across the Southeast this aftn, with shortwaves riding around the periphery, sparking convection across portions of GA/AL/MS/LA. High pressure at the sfc extends SWwrd from the Carolinas down into the TX/LA border. Convection in our local CWA remains rather spotty, with a few showers/storms here and there mainly E of I-65. The bulk of the convection associated with the approaching shortwave remains over N/Central GA. Convection should sputter out shortly after sunset this evening, with some patchy fog possible in areas in the E that receive rainfall late this aftn. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast can be divided into two sections, of sorts: Tonight through Monday, and then Tuesday through the extended, with confidence decreasing the further you pan out in the extended. Lows through Monday will slowly increase into the lower/middle 70s with humid conditions in place (Td temps in the lower/middle 70s). Partly cloudy conditions will prevail through this period, with the exception of Friday, when mostly cloudy conditions are expected as a front meanders southward toward our CWA. Friday also holds the highest rain chances of the first half of the forecast period, with slightly higher coverage of showers and storms expected. While gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be possible from storms that develop anytime from Thursday through Monday, slightly stronger storms are possible Friday with the front in the vicinity, and slightly higher CAPE values/Lapse Rates. Widespread severe weather is not expected, however, gusty winds around 30-40mph will be the primary threat. High temperatures during this time will top out in the lower to middle 90s, and combined with the humid conditions in place, will produce Heat Index values between 100-104F. This has been highlighted in the HWO. The second half of the forecast can be summed up in one word: uncertain. Longer-range models develop the currently-named 99L in the Caribbean into a tropical system and are having a difficult time discerning exactly where the track will be. With model guidance from the TX/LA border Ewrd to the Carolinas, will retain much of the forecast from this time period, awaiting further clarity in future model runs. 12 && .AVIATION... (Issued 1216 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016) For 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Moisture has returned to the TN Valley and as a result of daytime heating a FEW/SCT deck of clouds between 4-5kft has formed. Expect clouds to hang around through sunset then dissipate. Models continue to indicate a few isolated storms forming for areas along and east of I-65 but not expecting storms to impact either terminal this afternoon. Southeasterly winds will remain around 5kts this afternoon and then taper off this evening. Stumpf && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Huntsville 73 93 73 93 / 10 20 10 40 Shoals 73 93 73 92 / 10 20 10 40 Vinemont 72 92 72 91 / 10 20 10 40 Fayetteville 72 91 72 91 / 10 20 10 40 Albertville 71 91 72 91 / 10 20 10 40 Fort Payne 70 91 71 91 / 10 20 10 40 && .HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.