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Area Forecast Discussion

455
FXUS64 KHUN 261149
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
549 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/
QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL WX CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY THIS EARLY WED MORNING...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES. CURRENT TEMP TRENDS ARE
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S RANGE FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR ERN
ZONES WHERE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO EXIT EWD...AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST REGION DIVING SEWD LATER TODAY...WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME ASSOCIATED QPF AFFECTING MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TN
AND JUST LEADING INTO NRN AL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HRS. CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY
PRECIP WITH THIS ONCOMING SFC WAVE. HOWEVER...BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ABOVE H7...WITH THE TEMP CURVE
REMAINING JUST ABOVE THE ZERO DEGREE LINE. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH A
SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY FOR AREAS N OF THE TN RIVER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE WELL E OF THE AREA.

THE UPCOMING WX FOR THANKSGIVING LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET...ALBEIT RATHER
COLD...AS A STRONG DOME OF POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS
BUILDS SEWD INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS. MAX TEMPS ON THU DO
NOT LOOK TO CLIMB MUCH HIGHER THAN THE MID 40S...WHICH IS ABOUT 15F
DEGREES OR SO BELOW SEASONAL TRENDS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YR. TEMPS
THU NIGHT THEN LOOK TO FALL MAINLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S...BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOPS ON FRI...AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EWD
TOWARD THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN.

THE LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES/CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN RETURNING ON SUN...AS A RETURN FLOW PATTERN
BEGINS TO USHER SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE ALSO POINTING TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT
OF THE NRN/MID PLAINS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA AROUND THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MAY PROVIDE AN EXTRA FOCUS MECH FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY MID WEEK.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...SKC CONDS AND A LIGHT WNW FLOW PERSIST AT BOTH HSV/MSL
IN WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONT LAST EVENING. SCT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH BKN AS CIGS
ARND 12 KFT AND A GUSTY S FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS BOTH TERMINALS BTWN 27/02-05Z.
A BAND OF -RA WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FROPA...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
FORECAST ATTM DUE TO MINIMAL IMPACTS AND VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF PCPN
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10G18 KTS FROM NW IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH BKN/OVC MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED THRU END OF TAF PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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