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Area Forecast Discussion

068
FXUS64 KHUN 032323 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
623 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH A BROAD
UPPER LOW ROTATING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAINS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WELL...A SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IS EJECTING OUT
OF SE MISSOURI ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THAT COMBINED WITH A MOISTURE
GRADIENT (UPPER 60S DEW POINTS IN THE NW CORNER OF AL AND UPPER 50S
IN THE SE) HAVE COMBINED TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NW PART OF
THE AREA. THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN INCREASING SO HAVE INCLUDED A 15 POP
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT THAT IN THE FORECAST. WITH
HEATING DIMINISHING AND THE SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH...A DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED.

THE GENERAL PATTERN IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW
TUE AND DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THINGS START
TO GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AND UNSETTLED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST BREAKS DOWN AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE ECMWF INDICATING SOME SORT OF FRONTAL FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA DEVELOPING AS WELL AS MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NORTH. WILL
GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

GUIDANCE IS NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND
THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS A WHOLE. IN GENERAL...THE WAVE DEEPENS ON
THURSDAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH BY SATURDAY AS WELL. AGREEING WITH
WPC ON MODEL DIAGNOSTICS IN THE SENSE THAT THE 03/12Z GFS SEEMS TO
NOT TRACK THE UPPER VORT MAX CONSISTENTLY AND PROBABLY DEEPENS IT
TOO MUCH AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE 03/12Z
ECMWF CAME IN QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE 03/00Z ECMWF AND IS ACTUALLY
DEEPENING THE UPPER LOW THURSDAY IN A SIMILAR BUT NOT AS DEEP OF A
FASHION AS THE GFS. THIS ADDS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN TERMS OF A
PRETTY WET PATTERN WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE SYSTEM HANGS AROUND.
WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY. AS WELL...CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE
DAY/SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT IS FORECAST AS THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/LIFT FOR SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW STRONG ONES POSSIBLE. WITH THE RAINFALL AND FRONT NEAR THE
REGION...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S THU-SAT.

THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND A DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A FEW SPORADIC SHOWERS AROUND NW/N CNTRL AL SHOULD
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
VFR CONDS ARE OTHERWISE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN
WITH SOME MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING TUE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
SOME BRIEF LIGHT BR/MVFR VIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS TUE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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