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Area Forecast Discussion

475
FXUS64 KHUN 011552 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1052 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED PATCHY MORNING FOG FROM THE FORECAST...AND REFRESHED SOME OF
THE HOURLY GRIDS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG HAS FINALLY LIFTED/DIMINISHED...LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS AND AREAS S ALSO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EWD...HELPING TO SOLIDIFY QUIET AND SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDS/TEMPS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY. THE QUIET WX PATTERN
LOOKS TO PREVAIL FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER...OR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HRS...BEFORE THE OVERALL PATTERN TURNS MORE
ACTIVE STARTING LATE TUE. IN THE SHORT TERM THOUGH...NOT MUCH TO
REALLY SAY OTHER THAN LOW/MID LEVEL SCT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM
LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. OTHER THAN REMOVING THE
PATCHY FOG FROM THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE
NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 631 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
FOR 12Z TAFS... PATCHY FOG ALONG THE TN RIVER WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS THRU 14Z AT KMSL AND KHSV BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PD. DIURNAL
CUMULUS BASED ~050AGL SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW.

AK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 501 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
FOG DROPPING VIS DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION TODAY WHILE THE LARGE
TROUGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME ARE 80 FOR HSV AND 79 FOR MSL!
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS.
WILL SEE PWATS +1 INCH. THESE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THURSDAY...~1.5 INCHES...AS THE RIDGE MOVES E AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES. THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY EVENING. WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT KEPT IN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS W OF I-65.

VORT MAX LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST TO OUR WNW LATE THURS NIGHT AND
CONTINUES TO STRETCH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING THE LLJ TO BE 35-40KTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR 30-40KTS AS
WELL. CAPE IS PRESENT ALONG THE FRONT...+1000 J/KG. PRECIP WILL
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS LOWER DEW PTS MOVE IN FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST COOL DOWN AFTER THE FRONT.
BUT SATURDAY SHOULD REALLY FEEL LIKE FALL. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S
AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO THE
SFC HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS COULD BE BELOW SEASONABLE IN
THE 40S...BUT DONT WORRY...THEY WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY BACK TO
NORMAL. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP ON MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES E AND A WEAK FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY. EXTENDED THE
PRECIP CHANCE INTO MONDAY AFTN FOR THE EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH.

JMS

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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