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Area Forecast Discussion

475
FXUS64 KHUN 041546 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1046 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...TO LOWER HIGHS SLIGHTLY AND ADJUST AFTERNOON QPF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN EAST OF A LINE FROM ELKMONT TO
PHIL CAMPBELL. RAINFALL RATES HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME LIGHTER AS THE
MORNING HAS WORN ON...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR PARTS OF NW ALABAMA
WHICH RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY THROUGH 7
AM THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NW ALABAMA...CLOUDS
HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST HOUR AND IS COMPOSED OF
MAINLY HIGH THIN CLOUDS. SOME BREAKS CAN BE SEEN IN CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL.

MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS 850 MB TO 700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FAIRLY
LOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT KEEPS RH VALUES AT 500
MB 95 TO 100 PERCENT. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE SOME BREAKS IN
SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SINCE SOME INSOLATION SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MAKE IT THROUGH THE FAIRLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS OR SUCKER HOLES...COULD
SEE SOME HIGHS CLIMB TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE
HIGHS BETWEEN 76 AND 81 DEGREES.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AS INSOLATION PROVIDES SOME ADDED INSTABILITY AND AS A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES NW ALABAMA. A FEW STRONG STORMS PRODUCING WIND
GUST AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS...AS MANY
AREAS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS RECEIVED BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL..MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

HOWEVER...THE NEXT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS SE AND INTO EASTERN TN
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY BRING THIS AREA OF
STRONGER STORMS BACK INTO LOCATIONS IN NW ALABAMA AS EARLY AS 7PM OR
8 PM.


KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO BOTH
TERMINALS AS OF 12Z THIS MORNING AND THESE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH APPROX. 19Z. AFTER THIS MODELS
INDICATE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND ALLOWS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z. BKN TO OVC SKIES PREVAIL TODAY
WITH LOW MVFR CIGS TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST THE
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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