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Area Forecast Discussion

286
FXUS64 KHUN 242330 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
630 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 324 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016)
The 20z surface and satellite analysis indicated that temps were
ranging from the mid to upper 80s across northeast Alabama and in
southern middle Tennessee, to the lower 90s in northwest Alabama. The
latest few IR/Visible satellite images indicated that there was still
a decent amount of low to mid clouds across the region in the wake of
the dissipated showers/storms along the weakening frontal boundary
near the forecast area. The short term models are in decent agreement
through early Saturday involving the forecast area being generally
dry and very warm. The RAP/Hi-Res and HRRR models all dissipate any
left over showers/storms by this mid evening and have dropped any
mention of precip especially after the 02z time frame tonight.

Will continue with the current trending of keeping temps, dew point
temps and heat index values in generally in the 105-110 degree range
for Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Will continue the heat advisory
for the forecast area and have highlighted the high heat index values
for the area via social media, forecast and on web site. Have also
trimmed back the precip chances into the slight chance category for
Saturday, as forecast soundings indicate a little more of a cap for
Saturday. Expect slightly increased pops for Sunday east of
Interstate 65 due to the combination of orographic effects and also a
weak piece of short wave energy moving through northeast Alabama by
the time of peak heating.

The GFS/Ecmwf models are in decent agreement involving the timing of
the weak cold front that is progged to move into the lower Ohio
valley by 06z Monday. The cold front is then expected to sink
southeastward into middle Tennessee by Monday afternoon and into the
forecast area by late Monday afternoon/Monday evening. Will continue
with higher chance pops across the forecast area due to the timing of
the system moving into the region during peak heating, expected CAPE
values around 2K, PWAT values around two inches and lifted indices
approaching moderate instability values. Will linger lessening
chances of showers/storms across the forecast area into Tuesday.

By Wednesday, the GFS model is more pronounced with a southern push
involving drier and cooler air in the wake of the cold front, as
opposed to the lesser amount of cooler air expected by the ECMWF
model. Have gone with a temp compromise at this point between the GFS
and ECMWF model solutions for Wednesday and Thursday due to
uncertainty of the southward progression of the cold front. With more
of a southwesterly low level flow setting up by Thursday afternoon,
have for now kept in a slight chance afternoon pop for the forecast
area. By late Thursday and into Friday, the models are differing with
respects to the southward movement of the next cold front out of the
lower Ohio valley and into the forecast area. Will maintain a chance
pop on Friday as the system moves into the region.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
For 00Z TAFs: VFR conds prevail for now at both main terminals.
Weakening area of tsra out of srn mid TN moving into ne AL should
remain clr of the airports, although an outflow boundary diving swd
may tempo impact KHSV between 00-01Z resulting in brief gusty winds
out of the n. Otherwise, weak frontal boundary moving swd into the
area Sat will result in additional shra/tsra mainly during the
afternoon hrs. Conds at the two main terminals may briefly drop into
the MVFR cat in/near any shra/tsra.

09

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Monday for ALZ001>010-
     016.

TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 AM CDT Monday for TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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