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Area Forecast Discussion

441
FXUS64 KHUN 230920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
320 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TOOK A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF FCST.

TWO AREAS OF PCPN WERE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/SERN US. THE FIRST AREA
WAS MAINLY OVER GA/SC/NRN FL(ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE).
THE OTHER AREA OF PCPN WAS OVER ERN TX/LA/SRN AR...DUE TO A MORE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ERN TX. IT WILL BE THIS 2ND AREA OF PCPN
THAT WILL AFFECT THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 12Z THIS MRNG. THUS THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (UNTIL 12Z) WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...EXCEPT
FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SCT RAIN EAST OF I65.

FOR TODAY...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NE ACROSS MO DRAGGING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY BEGINNING ARND 18Z. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE
NORTH OF THE CWA BY 00Z. ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT AN UPPER TROF
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT ALONG WITH EMBEDDED TSRA MAINLY FOR
TODAY. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW/UPPER
TROF MOVES NE OF THE AREA. THE THREAT OF SVR WX TODAY WILL BE LOW
OVER THE TN VALLEY...WITH THE BETTER CHC OF SVR WX S AND E OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS ARND 40 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. BUT OVERALL THE INSTABILITY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS
WEAK. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY/TONIGHT IS IF A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED. WITH THE EXPECTED LOW CLOUD COVER/PCPN TODAY...MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED. ALSO THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION FOR MOST OF TODAY.

MONDAY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA UNTIL 18Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY WRAP ARND PCPN AND THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT DURING THE MRNG.
OTHERWISE WILL END THE CHC OF PCPN FOR MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY MRNG/AFTN...DUE TO BETTER MIXING OF THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND PERHAPS LESS CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BY TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE
MIDWEST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE SERN COAST LINE.
THIS WILL STALL OUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED CDFNT OVER FL. A SFC WAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NE ALONG THE OLD CDFNT BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN ACROSS THE SERN US. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE ATTM
THAT OUR CWA WILL BE TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY PCPN DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH
A DRY CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP
THIS PERIOD DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

SATURDAY...A CDFNT MAY AFFECT THE AREA SOMETIMES NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS AND KEEP DRY. HOWEVER THE ECMWF
SHOWS PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1204 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO ESE AND STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW...WITH CURRENT MVFR
STRATUS CIGS LOWERING TO 1500 FT BY 23/10Z AND TO 800 FT BY 13-15Z.
THREAT FOR SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A PRECEDING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
AT HSV BTWN 12-14Z WITH MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR IMPACTS BTWN 14-16Z. A
HIGHER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RA/EMBEDDED TSRA WILL EXIST BTWN 17/19Z
AND 20/22Z AS STRONGER WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION LIFTS
NNEWD FROM LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR PCPN WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM SW-TO-NE BTWN 20-22Z AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD...MVFR STRATUS LAYER WILL REMAIN INTACT THRU END OF TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH A GUSTY SSW FLOW.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    63  52  58  34 / 100  30  20  10
SHOALS        64  53  57  35 / 100  30  20  10
VINEMONT      63  52  60  34 / 100  30  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  62  50  56  32 / 100  30  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   62  51  59  33 / 100  30  20  10
FORT PAYNE    62  51  59  33 / 100  30  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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