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Area Forecast Discussion

691
FXUS64 KHUN 291953
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT. ATTM THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER NRN TX
THRU NW MO AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT TO DO
WITH POPS THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN
OVER MY CWA WILL BE ARND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR MY WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY A 50KT 8H JET. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX
OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. TIME SECTIONS ARE ONLY
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING -SHRA FOR THE MRNG HOURS. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT BY
MONDAY AFTN WITH CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER DUE TO RETURN FLOW MAY HAVE SOME WAA PCPN ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
...IS STILL FAIRLY TRICKY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. ATTM THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE BROAD BRUSHING THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS.

FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A STALLED CDFNT OVER KY/TN BY 12Z. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG THE CDFNT WHICH WILL DRAG THE
CDFNT THRU THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MRNG AS IT MOVES EAST.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT -SHRA SATURDAY MRNG...SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1227 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...2-3KFT CIGS ARE MOVING FROM THE WEST AND SHOULD BE AT
KMSL BY 18Z AND KHSV AT 19Z OR SHORTLY AFTER. ONCE THESE CLOUDS MOVE
OUT...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW-MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW. THERE
IS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS AND INCLUDED AN EXTRA GROUP TO BRING CLOUDS UP TO SCT
BRIEFLY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION SO AMENDMENTS MAY
BE NEEDED TONIGHT. AN OCCASIONAL GUST OF 15-20KT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH A QUICK BURST OF
RAIN BETWEEN ABOUT 07-15Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
TONIGHT AS WELL BUT TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION. CIGS WILL DROP DURING
THIS TIME TO BELOW 2KFT BUT SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER 15Z.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    48  66  41  72 /  80  30  10  30
SHOALS        49  67  42  73 /  80  20  10  30
VINEMONT      48  67  41  72 /  80  30  10  30
FAYETTEVILLE  46  64  39  70 /  80  20  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   49  65  40  70 /  80  40  10  30
FORT PAYNE    47  65  40  71 /  80  30  10  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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