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Area Forecast Discussion

155
FXUS64 KHUN 040223
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
923 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
LOWERED WINDS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH FAIRLY GOOD CAA TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND DECREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO ARND 50 DEGREES. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE
OF COLD SPOT WITH MRNG LOW IN THE MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
BASED ON STLT TRENDS WILL ADJUST GRIDS TO SHOW DECREASING CLOUDS BY
MRNG.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS...SCATTERED CLOUDS AT KHSV AND BROKEN AT KMSL WILL
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30KT
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY AND DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS.

LN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THERE WAS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION, AS EVIDENCED BY THE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOWER CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. THE MAIN INITIAL
FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INVOLVING CLEARING OUT THE FORECAST AREA BY
BETWEEN THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME. GENERALLY ACCEPT THIS SOLUTION FOR
TONIGHT. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES OCCURRING AND THE FORECAST AREA
STILL IN A LIGHTER LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT, EXPECT THAT
TEMPS SHOULD FALL A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES AND HAVE GONE TWO TO
THREE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TONIGHT`S OVERNIGHT LOWS.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT INVOLVING SHIFTING AN
UPPER TROUGH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION BY BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE A DECENT LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, SO WILL BRING IN INSTABILITY SHOWERS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE GOING FORECAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INVOLVING DROPPING THE UPPER LOW
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THEN INTO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE CLEARING OCCURRING ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO DROP GENERALLY INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOULD BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
THEN SHIFT FAR ENOUGH EAST SO THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SATURDAY, WITH A
WARMING TREND OCCURRING. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES ESPECIALLY FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS
THE AREA.

BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED
BY THE MODELS TO HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH DRY WEATHER AND
A WARMING TREND EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL FINALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BETWEEN LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY,
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INVOLVING
A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT COULD
STILL PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL KEEP IN LOW CHANCE POPS TO END OUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.


TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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