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Area Forecast Discussion

961
FXUS64 KHUN 280520
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1220 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 959 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016)
Latest radar data suggests that coverage of residual light rain in
the wake of afternoon convection continues to dissipate this
evening, and POPs will be lowered for majority of the region for the
remainder of the night. That said, we will need to closely monitor
the progress of a small backward propagating MCS currently across
northern portions of the Cumberland Plateau in TN. Short term models
suggest that sfc-850 mb flow will gradually veer throughout the night
a 500-mb trough axis advances southeastward through the region, and
this may be sufficient to sustain this MCS for several more hours.
Although bulk of the convection will likely remain to the east of our
forecast area, we will maintain a slightly higher prob for both
showers and thunderstorms in ne Alabama and southern TN. Weak ascent
associated with the 500-mb trough may be sufficient for a few
sprinkles or patches of light rain in remainder of the region, and a
20% POP will be included for rest of the forecast area. Otherwise, a
nearly saturated boundary layer and light flow regime will be
favorable for more widespread fog formation early Tuesday morning,
with areas of fog possible. Visibility should be confined to the 3-5
mile range, however, due to impacts from a lingering deck of
altostratus clouds. Temps/dewpoints and winds look good with no
changes required.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
For 06Z TAFs: Bkn-ovc altostratus deck will likely persist for
remainder of the night, but recent trends in ir satellite data
suggest that it will thin sufficiently for fairly widespread
development of br/fg btwn 28/06-13Z. Prevailing vsbys should remain
in the 3-5 sm range, with periodic drops to arnd 2 sm btwn 07-11Z.
Conds will improve after 13-14Z as ne flow strengthens and drier air
pushes into the region. Higher probs for storms tomorrow will be
south of the TN River, so we will include no pcpn in either TAF attm.

70/DD

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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