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Area Forecast Discussion

893
FXUS64 KHUN 301633 AAD
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1133 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1054 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NW ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY
IN THIS AREA AND KEPT THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SO FAR. AT THIS TIME...BETTER MOISTURE FORCING/CONVERGENCE
IS OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN LINE OF DEEPER CONVECTION THAT IS
TAKING SHAPE FROM ALCORN COUNTY SOUTH TO CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NE MS.
SOME IN CLOUD LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED BY NLDN LIGHTNING NETWORK.

EXPECT THIS LINE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...DUE
TO STRONG BLOCK HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
COAST...THIS MAY NOT PUSH INTO NW ALABAMA UNTIL AROUND NOON.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FORM
JUST EAST OF THIS LINE UNTIL THEN. FURTHER EAST...BELIEVE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CAPE VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND
850 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30KTS.

HIGH CAPE VALUES COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WITH
STRONGER STORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY 77 TO 81 DEGREES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. BELIEVE THIS AREA WILL SEE THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
TODAY...AS PREDOMINANT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HOLD OFF LONGER.
LOWERED HIGHS IN THE WEST DUE TO EXPECTED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
MOST OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE RAISED WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
MPH.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS... SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTN IN NWRN
AL, WHICH MAY IMPACT KMSL AND KHSV. THUS FAR, LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
QUITE LIMITED, SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES. AMDS MAY BE
NECESSARY DEPENDING ON CELL TRENDS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE FORECAST
THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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