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Area Forecast Discussion

095
FXUS64 KHUN 310000
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
700 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND AREA 88-D RETURNS ALL INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSEASONABLY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM
85 TO AROUND 90 AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FURTHER RESULT IN A SLOW INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING THE SHORT WAVES
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA INTO KENTUCKY BY BETWEEN 18Z
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD LESSENING POPS AS THE DAY
CONTINUES TOWARD JUST CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF
THE SHORT WAVES...SLIGHT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WILL KEEP
IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN
MOVING A SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF MODEL AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE GFS MODEL...KEEP THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL SLIGHTLY BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY TOWARD GUIDANCE VALUES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY DIURNAL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS TEMPS VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE INVOLVING EXTENDED TIME FRAME TEMP FORECAST.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...A LOT OF MOISTURE WAS BEING PUMPED ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY DUE TO AN UPPER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST AND A LARGE UPPER HIGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER RADAR/STLT TRENDS WERE SHOWING A BREAK
IN THE TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TAF SITES ARND 02Z. BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z WILL KEEP VCSH AT BOTH TAF SITES. NOT REAL REAL SURE IF WE SEE
ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z...SO FOR NOW WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN TAFS UNTIL ARND 14Z SUNDAY MRNG. AFTER 14Z...THE UPPER
TROF ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH TAF SITES. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS...ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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