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Area Forecast Discussion

361
FXUS64 KHUN 010821
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
321 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WENT WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

LARGE UPPER TROF STILL DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE US. ACROSS THE CWA
TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. WILL MONITOR IN CASE FOG WOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OR
DENSE. ATTM DONT THINK THAT WILL BE THE CASE.

IR STLT SHOWS A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER NRN MS THAT COULD PRODUCE
SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY. MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING A LOT OF PCPN TODAY THUS WILL KEEP POPS ARND 30 PERCENT. FOR
TONIGHT DONT SEE ANY REAL GOOD TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN BUT WITH
THE UPPER TROF IN PLACE CAN RULE OUT A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT 30 POP.

SATURDAY...STILL NOT SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER
UPPER DISTURBANCES NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS MAY AFFECT THE TN VALLEY
BY SATURDAY MRNG WITH A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. DONT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE WITH MODELS HANDLING THE PCPN CHC/TIMING ON SATURDAY. THUS
WILL LEAVE 50 POPS WHICH IS WHAT THE NAM IS HINTING AT.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN US BUT
ECMWF/GFS SHOWS A WEAK CDFNT/BOUNDARY WITH NE LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT
SHOULD BRING A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WOULD LIMIT
PCPN. WILL KEEP LOW POPS FOR THE MRNG/AFTN AND DRY FOR THE NIGHT.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...ECMWF PRETTY MUCH KEEPS IT DRY ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY...PROBABLY DUE TO WHAT`S LEFT OF BERTHA AS IT HUGS THE EAST
COAST PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE TN VALLEY. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE
BULLISH WITH A CHC OF PCPN. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH ECMWF AND NOT
MENTION ANY PCPN.

THURSDAY...MODELS HINT AT A POSSIBLE CDFNT APPROACHING THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY GFS. THUS WILL KEEP A LOW POP IN FOR NOW.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1253 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE TWO
MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
OVER THE MID SOUTH REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ADVANCE EWD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS FRI. MOISTURE/ENERGY ALONG THE SE
COAST MAY ALSO SHIFT WWD DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS FRI...RESULTING IN
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FROM E TO W...ALTHOUGH
THE PROB REMAINS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  66  86  66 /  30  30  50  30
SHOALS        86  67  87  67 /  30  30  50  30
VINEMONT      84  66  87  66 /  30  30  50  30
FAYETTEVILLE  83  65  85  65 /  30  30  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   85  65  87  66 /  30  30  50  30
FORT PAYNE    83  65  85  65 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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