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Area Forecast Discussion

813
FXUS64 KHUN 272021
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
221 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IS STREAMING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...KEEPING TEMPERATURE JUST A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...THOUGH STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH STRONG WAA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BECOME
UNSEASONABLY WARM.

WITH RETURN FLOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. GUIDANCE IS A BIT OFF IN THEIR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SURFACE FEATURE. THE GFS BRING THE FRONT IN DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY...BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE...WITH THE MOISTURE
EXITING THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT
INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA ON MONDAY AND THEN STALLS...BEFORE DISSIPATING
ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. GIVEN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE 50S...THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED INTO THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER HAVE OPTED TO KEEP JUST LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS BETTER WORKED OUT.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS... VFR CATEGORY CIGS OF 030-040AGL ARE EXPECTED THRU
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY THRU THE ENTIRE NIGHT UNTIL EXITING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NWLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT SELY ON FRIDAY MORNING. A BATCH
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING.

AK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    26  48  33  59 /   0   0   0  10
SHOALS        28  50  37  59 /   0   0   0  10
VINEMONT      26  49  35  60 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  26  46  34  59 /   0   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   26  48  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    26  49  30  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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