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Area Forecast Discussion
961 FXUS64 KHUN 280520 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1220 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 .UPDATE... For 06Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... (Issued 959 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016) Latest radar data suggests that coverage of residual light rain in the wake of afternoon convection continues to dissipate this evening, and POPs will be lowered for majority of the region for the remainder of the night. That said, we will need to closely monitor the progress of a small backward propagating MCS currently across northern portions of the Cumberland Plateau in TN. Short term models suggest that sfc-850 mb flow will gradually veer throughout the night a 500-mb trough axis advances southeastward through the region, and this may be sufficient to sustain this MCS for several more hours. Although bulk of the convection will likely remain to the east of our forecast area, we will maintain a slightly higher prob for both showers and thunderstorms in ne Alabama and southern TN. Weak ascent associated with the 500-mb trough may be sufficient for a few sprinkles or patches of light rain in remainder of the region, and a 20% POP will be included for rest of the forecast area. Otherwise, a nearly saturated boundary layer and light flow regime will be favorable for more widespread fog formation early Tuesday morning, with areas of fog possible. Visibility should be confined to the 3-5 mile range, however, due to impacts from a lingering deck of altostratus clouds. Temps/dewpoints and winds look good with no changes required. 70/DD && .AVIATION... For 06Z TAFs: Bkn-ovc altostratus deck will likely persist for remainder of the night, but recent trends in ir satellite data suggest that it will thin sufficiently for fairly widespread development of br/fg btwn 28/06-13Z. Prevailing vsbys should remain in the 3-5 sm range, with periodic drops to arnd 2 sm btwn 07-11Z. Conds will improve after 13-14Z as ne flow strengthens and drier air pushes into the region. Higher probs for storms tomorrow will be south of the TN River, so we will include no pcpn in either TAF attm. 70/DD && .HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.