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Area Forecast Discussion

250
FXUS64 KHUN 271537 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1037 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...TO RAISE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AND ADJUST CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA YESTERDAY
EVENING...CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR HAS PUSHED
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY AT 10
AM...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 40S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. SO CURRENTLY VERY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OVER 10 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS.

LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
AHEAD OF A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR NASHVILLE
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AS THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...IT WILL DETERMINE BOTH HIGH TEMPERATURES...CLOUD
COVER...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. EXPECT SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER EXTREME NW ALABAMA AROUND 850 MB...WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST. DESPITE THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LIKELY NOT PUSH INTO
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL AROUND 1 PM OR
LATER.

THROUGH 1 PM...DOWNGLIDE BELOW 850 MB LOOKS TO BE A PREDOMINATE
FEATURE...SO BETWEEN GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND LATE
TIMELY OF MAIN FORCING...THINK MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OFF
IN MOST LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER 1 PM. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA.

AFTER 18Z...FORCING....MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...AND STEEP
MID/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD ALLOW SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY
AND RATHER LOW PWS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

TWEAKED HIGHS UP A BIT IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND EAST OF I-65 BASED
ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.


KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 625 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST AT KHSV FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE
CLEARING LINE IS NEARING THE TERMINAL...AND SHOULD REACH THERE BY
13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY...AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...HOWEVER NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY MORNING
DUE TO THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-
     096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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