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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KHUN 281745 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1245 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

For 18Z TAFs.


(Issued 1051 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016)
Even though a low impact forecast...a somewhat complicated one to
resolve this morning. The area of convergence that was in place over
much of northern Alabama earlier this morning, has produced a trace
to a few hundreths of an inch of rainfall (mainly east of I-65). A
wedge front over Georgia is pushing west into northeastern Alabama at
this time. This is advecting much drier air in the lower levels into
Dekalb and eastern Jackson counties in northeast Alabama. Although it
has severely limited precipitation where drier air has advected in,
the easterly boundary layer winds are enhancing convergence near and
west of this boundary.

Mesoscale guidance is in fairly good agreement that this wedge front
will continue to push east through the morning hours. This will shift
and enhance the low level convergence westward to near the I-65
corridor through 18Z. Beyond that time, it looks as though dry air in
the boundary layer will be dry enough to keep any shower or
thunderstorm activity isolated to widely scattered across the entire
forecast area. A 30 pop was kept mainly near and west of I-65 later
in the afternoon...as another shortwave is progged to move through
the upper level flow into western Tennessee. This shortwave could
produce a few widely scattered showers or storms mainly in northwest
Alabama as it pushes into western Tennessee. The main threat with any
storms that develop with be cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds
to around 40 mph.

Current cloud cover has kept temperatures much lower near I-65 than
on the edges of forecast area. Temperatures in these areas are only
in the lower 70s to near 80 degrees. Expect at least partly to mostly
cloudy conditions to remain fairly prevalent along a line from
Lynchburg in Tennessee south into the Birmingham area through around
1 pm at least. Thus, lowered highs significantly into the 81 to 86
degree range in these areas.



For 18Z TAFs:
A weak feed of moisture from the Gulf, along with present instability
should lead to isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms into the
early evening. Given recent radar trends (especially considering
light showers just east of KHSV, stayed with VCSH for KHSV this
afternoon, and KMSL late this afternoon and early evening. Stronger
heating at KMSL could lead to TS development, but kept VCSH in TAF
but delayed it from the earlier issuance. With an exception of being
in/near a heavier shower, general VFR weather is forecast across the
area through Sunday morning.



.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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