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Area Forecast Discussion

951
FXUS64 KHUN 030220
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
920 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER...OTHERWISE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT/BKN CI CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT IN
NW UPPER FLOW. THUS MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS TO GO WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR WORDING. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXPECT MRNG
LOWS TO MAINLY DROP INTO THE MID 60S. OTHERWISE NOT A BAD NIGHT WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND MILD TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...EVEN WITH SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER MOVING SWD ACROSS THE
REGION...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 210 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DRY AND VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE GREATER
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE START OF A NEW WEEK...COURTESY OF BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SE CONUS. A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION...DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED
IN ONLY A FEW SHORT-LIVED CU FORMING MAIN IN/NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SKIES OTHERWISE WERE CLEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW/MID 90S.
AVERAGE HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR AT MUSCLE SHOALS AND HUNTSVILLE ARE
91.

A WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE STATES...SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE JAMES BAY HAS RESULTED IN A HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING SETUP
OVER EAST/CENTRAL CANADA. A BLOCKING PATTERN ALSO WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS WRITING...NO WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OF THE REGION.

THE BLOCKING SITUATION PER MID/UPPER LEVEL LEVEL FORECASTS SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE MID WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...A CONTINUED RUN OF VERY WARM TO HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SLOW RISE
WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE HEAT INDEX
READINGS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S ON MONDAY...AND AROUND 100 ON
TUESDAY. THOSE VALUES WILL MORE TOLERABLE THAN WHAT WE HAD FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF JULY.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...AND RETURN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOR THU-FRI...AS A BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT IT IS SUMMER TIME AND
THE PRECIP WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...STAYED BELOW LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS ISSUANCE. IN ANY CASE WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...SUGGESTS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...IF/WHEN THEY OCCUR. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...EARLY SATURDAY
TIME-FRAME. DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL LOWER HIGHS FROM THE
90S EARLY THIS WEEK...INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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