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Area Forecast Discussion

528
FXUS64 KHUN 221151
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
651 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS MANAGED TO PUSH WELL INTO S AL/CNTRL MS
THIS EARLY WED MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE N IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS REMAINED PREDOM IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE THUS FAR AS
WELL...WHICH HAS LIMITED ANY FOG FORMATION IN MOST AREAS. A FEW OF
THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS MAY YET SEE SOME PATCHY FOG...THX IN PART
TO SOME LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW H925...LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ONLY BE IN A FEW SPOTS THOUGH...AND ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY
DIMINISH WITHIN AN HR OR TWO AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SEASONABLY COOL AND TRANQUIL WX CONDITIONS TODAY...AS A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. STRONG UPPER RIDGING OUT OF THE CNTRL CONUS ALSO
LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE SFC HIGH EWD...HELPING TO SUPPLANT QUIET AND
SEASONABLY COOL/MILD TEMPS ACROSS THE SE REGION INTO FRI. ONLY
EXCEPTION THE LATEST MODEL SUITES CONTINUE TO HINT AT IS AN EMBEDDED
UPPER SHTRWV/TROUGH AXIS DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES BEHIND
THE EXITING RIDGE PATTERN THU AND FRI. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE
A BIT OF QPF GENERATED ACROSS THE NRN/MID PLAINS WITH THIS ONCOMING
SHEAR AXIS...ONLY TO THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FURTHER SE AS THE SYSTEM
ENCOUNTERS MUCH DRIER AIR AOB H5. THIS MAY AT LEAST RESULT IN A FEW
CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE AREA THU INTO FRI...BEFORE A BROADER UPPER
RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF REGION.

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE POINTING TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY REINFORCING
COLD FRONT OUT OF THE NW STATES TRAVERSING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION AROUND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND PERIOD.
ANY LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL DISPLACED TO THE NE OF THE AREA...WITH MORE OF A LARGE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE INSTEAD BUILDING SWD INTO THE MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS.
THIS LOOKS TO USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THE TEMP TREND MAY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM AS THE
SFC HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS E TOWARD THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC BASIN. THE
LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A MUCH
BROADER COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN HALVES OF THE
CONUS TUE INTO WED. THE MODELS DIFFER THOUGH ON THE AVAILABILITY OF
MOISTURE...AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE SE STATES...AND AS SUCH
HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. THIS
MAY CHANGE THOUGH WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...IF IT DOES LOOK LIKE A
BIT MORE MOISTURE RETURN MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HEADING INTO LATE TUE/WED.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...VFR/SKC CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH MSL/HSV TERMINALS
THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH NE FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ARND 8G15 KTS
BY 22/15Z. AS SFC RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS TN THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
VEER SLIGHTLY AND MAY DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD AND
DENSE VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
WIND SPEED AND POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
BEFORE SUNRISE...WILL NOT INCLUDE VSBY REDUCTIONS ATTM.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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