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Area Forecast Discussion

191
FXUS64 KHUN 292334
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
634 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 218 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...TO THE
LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN INCREASING
DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY TONIGHT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...TOWARD
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI BY 12Z SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES AS IS
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS IT WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO
MORNING BEFORE ANY ORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAKE IT INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL STILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO INCREASE TONIGHT FROM AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY THIS EVENING TO
NEARLY 1.80 INCHES BY 12Z SATURDAY.

WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE GOING POPS INTO SUNDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
DUE TO HIGH PWAT VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES...THERE COULD DEFINITELY BE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY. HAVE SHARPLY REDUCED
PRECIP CHANCES BY LABOR DAY INTO THE 20 PERCENT CATEGORY FOR MAINLY
DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.

THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE SIMILAR AFTER MONDAY IN DEVELOPING A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE
LESSENING PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK AND MORE WARM AIR
EXPECTED INTO THE MID LEVELS. WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPS INTO THE
MID 90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. THE MODELS
ATTEMPT TO DROP A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY...TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY WEDNESDAY...AND MAY LEAD
TO A LOW CHANCE POP FOR WEDNESDAY. HAVE MOVED UP PRECIP CHANCES FROM
THE SLIGHT CATEGORY TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD DUE
TO THE EXPECTED TRIGGER...DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HOT TEMPS.

WILL FURTHER MAINTAIN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEING A POSSIBILITY. WILL KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF MODEL NUMBERS AND THE WARMER GFS
GUIDANCE.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...THE TN VALLEY IS BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SERN US AND AN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THINKING THAT ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT TO KEEP PCPN OUT
OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON
SATURDAY THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER
12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KMSL. FOR NOW WENT WITH VCSH AT BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV ARND 14Z/15Z. BY 19Z/20Z WENT PREVAILING TSRA AT KMSL WITH A
TEMPO GROUP AT KHSV. OTHERWISE EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN TSRA...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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