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Area Forecast Discussion

050
FXUS64 KHUN 061550 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1050 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...TO RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL CENTERED OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING
FOR A VERY QUICK RISE IN TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES AT 10 AM IN
THE LOWER 70S TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALSO EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS
CREATING SOME CLOUD COVER OVER KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE
THIS BOUNDARY AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT INITIALIZED TOO FAR
SOUTH AT THIS TIME. SOME MESOSCALE MODELS BRING SOME OF THE MOISTURE
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN IN THE FORM OF PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE BASED ON CURRENT POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY
THEY ARE OVERDOING IT. SO ONLY GOING MOSTLY SUNNY THERE AND FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE NW ALABAMA...AS
MOISTURE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA IS
EXPECTED TO BE TRANSPORTED IN NW ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THERE THIS AFTERNOON TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

DUE TO WARM START AND ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AT WORST...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE
RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW WARMER SPOTS SUCH AS HUNTSVILLE...NW
AL...AND ATHENS COULD REACH 85 TO 87 DEGREES. TWEAKED DEWPOINTS TO
ALLOW FOR MINIMAL MIXING EAST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 558 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/
FOR 12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
PROVIDING FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KMSL/KHSV THRU THE FCST
PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 303 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST INTO
THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH DAY IS ALSO LIKELY.

HIGHS THE LAST TWO DAYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A DEG OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND ASSUME THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY
THANKS TO 850 TEMPS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS NEAR 90 FOR MANY LOCATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
DID NOT QUITE HIT 90 YET AS THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE PRESENT DUE TO A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON A WARMING TREND FROM UPPER 50S
TONIGHT TO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORMING OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND MOVE NORTH
NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL HOVER NEAR THE
SHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THIS LOW WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE
AREA OUTSIDE OF AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS SPINNING OFF TO THE EAST...A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO INDICATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
IT...SO CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER DUE TO ENOUGH
INSTABILITY PRESENT TO GET A FEW RUMBLES. MONDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE
DRY BUT WITH WEAK WAVES AROUND THE AREA AND TIMING
UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST. IT DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS SUN-TUE STILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
HIGHS WED BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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