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Area Forecast Discussion

583
FXUS64 KHUN 300509
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1209 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 955 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AL/MS GULF COAST THIS EVENING. AN
INITIAL VORT MAX ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS FEATURE -- WHICH
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION EARLIER TODAY
-- CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IR
SATELLITE DATA DOES SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY TO THE SSE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX PROGGED TO SHIFT
NNWWD INTO THE REGION BY 12Z. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE --
CURRENTLY ACROSS SW GEORGIA/SE ALABAMA -- SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD INTO
THE REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND WILL INCREASE POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALTHOUGH
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHOUT THUNDER...A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROB FOR
DEEPER CONVECTION IN UPDATED WEATHER GRIDS. OTHERWISE...HOURLY
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS AND DERIVED ELEMENTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
INDICATED WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL FROM THE SE.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST REASONING.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN ADVERTISING RA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT WEAK UPPER-LVL DISTURBANCE SPREADING INTO
THE HSV AREA BY 30/10Z AND MSL BY 14Z. PCPN AND MINOR VSBY REDUCTIONS
SHOULD LAST FOR APPROXIMATELY 6-HRS AT EACH TERMINAL...WITH
PREVAILING CIGS REMAINING IN THE LOW-VFR CATEGORY. ALTHOUGH THREAT
FOR EMBEDDED TSRA CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED...IT IS TOO REMOTE TO INCLUDE
IN FORECAST ATTM. PRIMARY GULF COAST CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO OPEN INTO
A WAVE AND LIFT NEWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW AFTN --
RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDS LATE IN TAF PERIOD. ASSUMING
ANOTHER FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RA ON SUNDAY...CLEARING SKIES
AND LGT ENE FLOW WILL PROMOTE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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