Current Version Previous Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Area Forecast Discussion
327 FXUS64 KHUN 281745 AAC AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1245 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .UPDATE... For 18Z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... (Issued 1051 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016) Even though a low impact forecast...a somewhat complicated one to resolve this morning. The area of convergence that was in place over much of northern Alabama earlier this morning, has produced a trace to a few hundreths of an inch of rainfall (mainly east of I-65). A wedge front over Georgia is pushing west into northeastern Alabama at this time. This is advecting much drier air in the lower levels into Dekalb and eastern Jackson counties in northeast Alabama. Although it has severely limited precipitation where drier air has advected in, the easterly boundary layer winds are enhancing convergence near and west of this boundary. Mesoscale guidance is in fairly good agreement that this wedge front will continue to push east through the morning hours. This will shift and enhance the low level convergence westward to near the I-65 corridor through 18Z. Beyond that time, it looks as though dry air in the boundary layer will be dry enough to keep any shower or thunderstorm activity isolated to widely scattered across the entire forecast area. A 30 pop was kept mainly near and west of I-65 later in the afternoon...as another shortwave is progged to move through the upper level flow into western Tennessee. This shortwave could produce a few widely scattered showers or storms mainly in northwest Alabama as it pushes into western Tennessee. The main threat with any storms that develop with be cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds to around 40 mph. Current cloud cover has kept temperatures much lower near I-65 than on the edges of forecast area. Temperatures in these areas are only in the lower 70s to near 80 degrees. Expect at least partly to mostly cloudy conditions to remain fairly prevalent along a line from Lynchburg in Tennessee south into the Birmingham area through around 1 pm at least. Thus, lowered highs significantly into the 81 to 86 degree range in these areas. KTW && .AVIATION... For 18Z TAFs: A weak feed of moisture from the Gulf, along with present instability should lead to isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms into the early evening. Given recent radar trends (especially considering light showers just east of KHSV, stayed with VCSH for KHSV this afternoon, and KMSL late this afternoon and early evening. Stronger heating at KMSL could lead to TS development, but kept VCSH in TAF but delayed it from the earlier issuance. With an exception of being in/near a heavier shower, general VFR weather is forecast across the area through Sunday morning. RSB && .HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.