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Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KHUN 262318 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
618 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

For 00Z TAFs.


(Issued 313 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016)
Latest water vapor imagery shows a upper level low over the northern
Great Lakes region, with upper level ridging over much of the western
CONUS. At the surface, a cold front extended from the parent low over
the Great Lakes, southwestward into the lower MS Valley. A line of
showers and storms that developed earlier in the day has reached the
far SE portion of the CWA and would expect most of this activity to
push out of the area by sunset. The main cold front has reach through
the western half of the CWA, though lingering post frontal showers
were noted with the main trough axis over portions of western TN and
northern MS. As this activity moves east, it may clip the northern
portion of the area, however current thinking is that most of the
area will be rain free this evening and overnight. Northerly flow
behind the front will bring in the colder air during the overnight
hours, with forecast lows reaching into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The upper level low will begin to dig southward on Tuesday and
Wednesday. There are some slight discrepancies with how far south
the front reaches, and whether this provides additional lift for
showers across the SE. However, feel that the front will make it
south of our area overnight and the isentropic analysis shows little
to no forcing for ascent. Therefore will continue with a dry
forecast after 06Z this evening. Temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday will be very nice compared to what we have observed over
the last few weeks, with highs expected to remain upper 70s to lower
80s and lows around 50.

Precip chances will increase slightly on Wednesday night and into
Thursday as the upper low reaches into the Ohio Valley and a weaker
vort max rotates around the base of this trough over the NE portion
of the area. Not expecting much coverage as moisture will remain
limited. However, given the stronger forcing, there may be an
isolated light shower or two. This will also send a reinforcing cold
front through the area, and forecast highs may have a tough time
warming above the mid 70s on Thursday and Friday.

The upper low will begin to shift northward overnight Friday, with
near zonal flow expected across the TN Valley over the weekend.
Temperatures are expected to moderate slightly, with highs warming
into the low to mid 80s by Sunday.



For 00Z TAFs: Cold front is now mainly e of the two main terminals,
with just a few lingering shra in its wake. What precip is left
should diminish over the next 1-2 hrs with the loss of daytime
heating. This should then leave mainly mid/high clouds in place over
much of the region, with VFR conds prevailing into the evening
period. Cigs may lower closer to MVFR levels heading into the
overnight hrs before recovering Tue morning, and then scattering or
clearing with the onset of the afternoon period. Sfc flow will also
turn toward the n/nnw going into the late morning hrs.





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