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Area Forecast Discussion

903
FXUS64 KHUN 290710
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
210 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS AT 2 AM ARE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH
A SE BREEZE ARND 5 MPH...NOT TOO BAD. OTHERWISE A 5H TROF WAS OVER
THE MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WAS OFF THE GULF COAST
OF MS/LA. 8H WINDS ARE S/SE WHICH IS BRINGING MOISTURE OUT OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC INTO THE TN VALLEY. WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING CAN EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO POP MAINLY THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR
WX. HOWEVER CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW AND THE MIDWEST UPPER TROF WILL COMBINE TO CONTINUE
THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW WILL COVER THE CWA WITH A
HIGH CHC POP. AGAIN THE CHC OF SVR WX WILL BE LOW ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF ERIKA TO
KEEP THE CHC OF PCPN TO A MINIMUM (POPS ARND 20%) ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF WHATEVER IS
LEFT OVER FROM ERIKA. IF THE GFS TURNS OUT CORRECT COULD HAVE A
BETTER CHC OF UNSETTLED WX FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IF THE
ECMWF TURNS OUT CORRECT...WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH PCPN AT ALL FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE S...VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CIGS AOA 4-5K LOOK TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS...AND SE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 10KT.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF LIFTS NWD...AND VCSH
WORDING IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

09

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    85  67  82  65 /  40  30  50  30
SHOALS        86  68  83  66 /  30  30  50  30
VINEMONT      85  67  82  65 /  40  30  50  30
FAYETTEVILLE  84  66  81  64 /  40  30  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   84  67  81  65 /  50  30  50  30
FORT PAYNE    84  66  81  64 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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