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Current Version Previous Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Area Forecast Discussion627 FXUS64 KHUN 030230 AAB AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 930 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013 .UPDATE... ADDED SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING/EARLY MORNING FOR MOST AREAS NEAR/WEST OF I-65. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARD A CATEGORY AND INCREASED CLOUDS. && .DISCUSSION... A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND WEST OHIO RIVER VALLEYS WAS PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM THE GULF COAST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW ECHOES (MAINLY VIRGA) WERE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE OHIO VALLEY. MID EVENING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH LIGHT WINDS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY RAINFALL REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE GREATER HUNTSVILLE CFWA...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING... WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER BEFORE DAYBREAK THU. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MADE WERE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS...GIVEN THAT THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD BE SLOW TO EXIT. WITH THAT BEING SAID...CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE LATE NIGHT. BUT FOG/MIST NOTED IN THE FOG LOOP SHOULD BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. UPDATED FORECASTS PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. RSB && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013/ FOR 00Z TAFS... A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR AN EVENING SHOWER IN THE VICINITY OF KMSL...GIVEN DEEPER MOISTURE VALUES CLOSER TO THAT AIRPORT. WHILE AREA CEILING VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD...VISIBILITIES AT THE KMSL TERMINAL COULD TEMPORARILY BECOME MVFR LATE TONIGHT/BEFORE DAYBREAK THU. RB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD THRU EASTERN AR. THIS LOW WAS CHARACTERIZED BY 1.5+ INCH PWS AND WAS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF TS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LOW WILL BE DIRECTED SWIFTLY NORTH OF OUR REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN A BIT IN THIS PROCESS, BUT THE SFC/850 MB RIDGES HOLD A GOOD GRIP OVER THE SE THRU SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 500-600 MB WHICH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT CAPE AND SUPPRESS SHRA ACTIVITY OVERALL IN OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION BEING ISOLATED TERRAIN OR LAKE/RIVER BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION. POPS WILL BE LOWERED TO AROUND 10 PERCENT WITH A MENTION OF ISOLATED SHRA. THE OTHER TWO MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST ON IMAGERY WERE THE UPPER TROF ENTERING THE WEST COAST AND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. OBVIOUSLY IT IS EARLY TO SAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TROPICAL WAVE OTHER THAN THERE IS A CONE OF UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST, FOLLOWED BY A PROBABLE TRACK NE THRU SERN AL/GA. THIS WOULD KEEP THE RFQ OUT OF OUR REGION AND REDUCE CONCERN OF TORNADIC WEATHER. THE NAM HAS A TRACK FURTHER NW WHICH COULD ENHANCE OUR LOW LEVEL SHEAR MORE. THE INTERACTION OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A TROPICAL AIRMASS WOULD ENHANCE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL GO WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY, AND CUT MOS TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY. A SWIFT EXIT OF THE TROF AND COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE GFS, BUT THE ECMWF SOLN SLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SO THESE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. AGAIN, MUCH DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THIS INCOMING TROF. AK && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE. |