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Area Forecast Discussion

864
FXUS64 KHUN 020114 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
814 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
TO MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS LIMESTONE, MADISON INTO LINCOLN AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES WAS WEAKENING. THESE CELLS APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED BASED ON OBSERVATION OF THE CLOUD BASES FROM HERE AT THE
WFO. 00Z RAOBS INDICATE UNSTABLE AIR TO OUR N THRU W, WHILE MORE
STABLE AIR LIES OVER NRN AND CENTRAL AL. THE COLD FRONT/CONVERGENCE
ZONE SITUATED ACROSS WRN TN INTO NWRN MS HAS LIT UP NEARLY STATIONARY
DEEP CONVECTION, SOME OF WHICH HAS PRODUCED LANDSPOUT-TYPE FUNNEL
CLOUDS. DESPITE 50-60KT 6KM BULK SHEAR, STORM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FRONT/CONVERGENCE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INTO FAR
NWRN AL AND MIDDLE TN LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGHER CAPE AIR IN THIS ZONE
MAY SHIFT WITH THE FRONT, SO HAVE KEPT CHC POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. WE
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AS WE EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT
OF FOG, BUT WILL MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 600 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
FOR 00Z TAFS... ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA REMAINS THIS EVENING,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING WX. THUS, HAVE GONE
WITH VCSH THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT MAINTAINED A TEMPO TSRA GROUP FROM
10-14Z AT KMSL AND 12-16Z AT KHSV WHEN REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
CIGS OF ~020AGL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 05-07Z. SOME FOG IS PSBL,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT OF THIS OCCURRING THIS
EVENING. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY, BUT EXACT
TIMING AND COVERAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN, SO OPTED FOR VCTS AT BOTH
KMSL AND KHSV.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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