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Area Forecast Discussion

876
FXUS64 KHUN 061920
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
220 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE WAS BARELY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW NOW OCCURRING. TEMPS WERE RANGING FROM AROUND 80
TO 85 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE MODELS KEEP THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN END OF THE SURFACE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WE CAN EXPECT TEMPS TO ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S THROUGH SATURDAY. BETWEEN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
INVOLVING MOVING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TOWARD NORTHWEST ALABAMA BY AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRESENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST ALABAMA AREA FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE
INCREASED AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POP FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

BY MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE MORE FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHEAST PUSH OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MORE PRONOUNCED
INVOLVING THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...COMPARED TO THE DRIER
GFS MODEL SOLUTION. WILL FOR NOW TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION INVOLVING THE SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER INVOLVING
THE COLD FRONTAL MOVEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TOWARD THE COOLER GFS TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1200 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CLOUD COVER
SHOULD DEVELOP AT KHSV ON THURSDAY AFTER 06/15Z...BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SCT IN NATURE AND JUST ABOVE 5000 FEET. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN NEAR KMSL THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 12Z...BUT SHOULD REMAIN TOO
BRIEF AND LIMITED TO INCLUDE.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    60  87  61  89 /   0  10   0  10
SHOALS        59  86  59  89 /   0  10   0  10
VINEMONT      59  85  59  86 /   0  10   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  56  85  58  85 /   0  10   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   56  85  57  86 /   0  10   0  10
FORT PAYNE    55  85  58  85 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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