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Area Forecast Discussion

572
FXUS64 KHUN 260633
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
133 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The last remaining rainfall shown on radar reflectivity has just
about dissipated in Madison and Lincoln Counties. Satellite imagery
depicts remnant anvil debris clouds across TN, AL and GA. Watching
to see if any fog or low stratus develops, but nothing so far.
Upstream imagery and streamflow analysis shows a weak
shortwave/vorticity axis along the MS river valley that will be
dropping southeast into our forecast area today. This along with a
surface boundary/convergence zone basically north-south from middle
TN through eastern AL will provide the needed support for scattered
thunderstorms today. The greater POP will be east of I-65, but given
outflow boundaries, it is difficult to rule out activity just about
anywhere today. Forecast soundings appear similar to what was
observed at BMX and OHX this evening, with sufficient CAPE values in
the 2-3k J/kg range to support strong updrafts. D-CAPE values should
reach around 1k J/kg or a bit higher again today to support isolated
downbursts. I won`t rule out some hail as well with ample CAPE noted
in the hail growth zone of storms, despite WBZ heights above 10kft.
The CI/CS shield should remain thin enough for good heating again
today, with readings in the low to mid 90s expected. Suspect clouds
and storms may develop sooner today, so have dropped highs a bit from
yesterday.

Model guidance continues to indicate nocturnal continuance and/or
redevelopment of thunderstorms overnight with the wave/shear axis
basically remaining in place through Monday. On Monday, yet another
wave arrives as well from our northwest, with another one or two to
follow through Tuesday. Went with likely POP on Monday, and high
chance POP on Monday Night and Tuesday, but I suspect if model trends
continue, we may need to increase these POPs as well. Hopefully the
rest of the area will receive beneficial and not excessive rainfall
during this period. However, given slow movement and potential for
repeated thunderstorms, intense downpours could lead to isolated
flash flood events during the next couple of days.

The GFS and ECMWF are much more progressive with the cold front on
Tuesday, bringing drier air to the region Tuesday afternoon. The NAM
is slower and keeps showers and thunderstorms a possibility. Will go
on the low side Tuesday afternoon, then dry by Tuesday evening. We
should see a more pleasant period of weather during the middle of
next week with lower humidity and near seasonal temperatures. A wet
pattern still looks to be setting up by next weekend into the
following week. No significant variances were made from suggested
model blends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016)
For 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions will continue for much of tonight,
before MVFR vsbys are expected to develop around daybreak due to fog.
A VCTS period was included after 15Z at KHSV, when VFR conditions are
expected to return. Left VCTS out at KMSL, as forcing should be
better east of I-65. Could see MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys if -TSRA occurs at
either TAF site though, especially after 26/18Z.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    96  73  92  72 /  40  30  60  50
Shoals        96  74  91  72 /  30  30  60  50
Vinemont      94  72  91  71 /  30  30  60  50
Fayetteville  94  72  90  71 /  40  30  60  50
Albertville   94  72  90  71 /  40  30  60  50
Fort Payne    93  71  89  70 /  40  40  60  50

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.



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