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Area Forecast Discussion

366
FXUS64 KHUN 311118 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
618 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE
THE UPPER WX PATTERN IS STILL THE SAME WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WRN
STATES AND A TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE IS AN UPPER
WAVE NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC LOW OVER
SRN GA. 00Z U/A SOUNDINGS FROM OHX/BMX WERE FAIRLY DRY THUS NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN TODAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF
SPRINKLES THIS MRNG BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHC OF SHRA WILL BE THIS
AFTN.

BY THE AFTN THE COMBO OF DAYTIME HEATING...EASTERLY FETCH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW OVER GA AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER WAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A 20 POP
FOR SHRA ACROSS THE CWA. FOR TONIGHT THE CHC OF PCPN STILL DOES NOT
LOOK THAT GREAT BUT WILL CONTINUE THE 20 POP...AGAIN THANKS TO THE
EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD PCPN TODAY/TONIGHT AND WITH VERY WEAK
INSTABILITIES WILL KEEP ALL PCPN AS SHRA.

FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AN INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCT SHRA/TSRA. NO SEVERE WX EXPECTED THRU THIS
PERIOD.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP PCPN TO A MINIMUM IF ANY AT ALL. THUS
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY. WITH SPARSE COVERAGE THRU TONIGHT AT
KMSL/KHSV, DID NOT FORMALLY INCLUDE VCSH. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH, SO HAVE ADDED
A VCSH BEGINNING AT 11Z FRIDAY MORNING.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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