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Area Forecast Discussion
928 FXUS64 KHUN 251448 AAB AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Huntsville AL 948 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016 .UPDATE...to lower dewpoints and heat index values. && .DISCUSSION... Overall, the main issues with initiating convective activity today will will be the lack of a better focusing mechanism and some low level subsidence that will be in place due to the surface high over much of Alabama. However, instability will be high with CAPE values rising again to around 2000 J/KG in the early afternoon hours. Drier air aloft should allow a few strong storms that could produce wind gusts to between 40 and 50 mph, if storms do develop. However, due to lack of better low level convergence in the absence of forcing aloft, isolated showers/storms should be the rule. Some widely scattered showers/storms could develop in our southeastern counties to near Birmingham though (closer to some slightly better low level convergence). Highs will definitely be higher than yesterday given less cloud cover development later this morning into the afternoon hours than yesterday. However, do expect some mostly cloudy conditions to develop east of I-65 around noon into the early afternoon hours before sky conditions become partly cloudy. The previous high temperature forecast was just tweaked a tad to reflect more widespread 92 to 96 degree highs except in the normal hot spots. In some of these typically hotter spots, such as Huntsville and the Muscle Shoals, kept 96 to 98 degree highs from previous forecast. Despite high temperatures today, it looks like more dry air aloft will mix down after temperatures hit the upper 80s to lower 90s today. Although very humid conditions are in place right now with dewpoints in the 70 to 75 degrees range, these should drop off significantly late this morning and into the early afternoon hours. This should keep heat index values from reaching 105 or above. It still will be hot with heat index values between 99 and 104 degrees though, so remain hydrated and allow for enough breaks if working outside. KTW && .AVIATION... (Issued 616 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016) For 12Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail at the KMSL and KHSV terminals through the forecast period. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon, however coverage is too low to add mention to the TAFs. Additionally, BR may develop early Tuesday morning and reduce visibilities into the MVFR category. However this will greatly depend on if precip occurs at the TAF site and therefore will not include in this issuance. 73 && .HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.