National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Area Forecast Discussion

095
FXUS64 KHUN 032043
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
243 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH THAT HAS REMAINED OVER THE FORECAST AREA SINCE
MID WEEK...HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY MOVED EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEAK RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD OVER TAKE THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY CLOUD FORECAST TONIGHT.
THE GRADUAL LOWER LEVEL WIND SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST EXPECTED
TOWARD MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30...WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE TEMP NUMBERS
FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY MONDAY. DECENT
WARM ADVECTION WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY ALONG
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS ON
MONDAY THAN TODAY AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM...TEMPS SHOULD STILL WARM
INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO ALONG WITH THE
ECMWF MODELS TIMING OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY MOVING A SURFACE
LOW OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHER END OF LIKELY POPS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. DUE TO SLIGHT INSTABILITY...TIME OF
THE DAY OF EXPECTED COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND PVA ACROSS THE AREA IN
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT...WILL AT LEAST KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A TRAILING UPPER LOW AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE KEEP IN AT
BEST A CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL
STILL KEEPS IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE POP UNTIL
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND IS ACCEPTED.

A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. THE LARGE UPPER THROUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST REGION BY
SUNDAY...AS ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING AS WE HEAD INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY TO GFS/ECMWF TEMPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1132 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2013/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD. CURRENT CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS
APPROACHING BY 04/00Z THIS EVENING, WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING
OVERNIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE TERMINALS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 04/18Z.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    29  61  49  61 /   0  10  50  70
SHOALS        30  62  50  62 /   0  10  50  70
VINEMONT      29  61  49  61 /   0  10  50  70
FAYETTEVILLE  27  59  47  59 /   0  10  50  70
ALBERTVILLE   29  61  49  62 /   0  10  50  70
FORT PAYNE    28  60  48  60 /   0  10  50  70

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.