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Area Forecast Discussion

734
FXUS64 KHUN 241204 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
704 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/
A CLEAR AND COOL MORNING WAS IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE
40S AT MOST LOCALES AS OF 2 AM, AND EVEN IN THE U30S IN SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TN. DESPITE THE COOL START, WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD WARMUP AGAIN
TODAY AS STRONGER WARM ADVECTION TAKES HOLD IN ADVANCE OF A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER TROF IN THE PLAINS. THE CENTROID OF THE UPPER TROF WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT. AN ELONGATED LEAD WAVE
WILL TRACK INTO KY/TN/AL EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE STRONGER
WAVE WHICH EXHIBITS A DECENT -DIVQ PROFILE. LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS/SHEAR ALL INCREASE RAPIDLY THRU THE EVENING WITH A QLCS
ADVANCING RAPIDLY EWD THRU THE REGION. THE HIGHRES NMM INDICATES THE
LINE REACHING OUR TN COUNTIES AND THRU NW AL BETWEEN 03-06Z, THEN
RAPIDLY EXITING BEFORE 09Z. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND COLD
FRONT BEHIND THE INITIAL MCS, DECREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INCREASING DNVA WOULD TEND TO LOWER THE RISK OF ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES DO SUPPORT SOME RISK OF
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH MUCAPE VALUES REACHING AROUND 500+ J/KG. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS IN THE HWO WITH
THIS WAVE.

CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE EARLY FRIDAY AS SHRA/STORMS EXIT OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY. DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S-L50S
SHOULD ARRIVE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH
THE U70S-A80. SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING WILL ENSURE SPRING WEATHER
WILL BE IN FULL SWING SATURDAY. 8H TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 13-15C
RANGE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THRU THE DAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE L-M80S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO LOOK STORMY AND POTENTIALLY QUITE WET
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL OFF THE PACIFIC COAST, SO THE MODELS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE AS IT MOVES INLAND. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THIS WILL BE A CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS WHICH ARE TYPICALLY VERY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST. THIS SHOULD BE NO DIFFERENT, WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION
BEING QUITE UNCERTAIN. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE PLAINS/OZARKS
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE HERE MUCH EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED
ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MID LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE
PROGGED WOULD SUPPORT THIS IDEA. WHAT INFLUENCE THIS HAS ON
CONVECTIVE TRENDS MONDAY ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER MCS WILL
LIKELY ERUPT MONDAY EVENING, THE QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE. THE GFS
SUGGESTS IT COULD RE-GENERATE IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS MCS,
FEEDING ON STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THIS MAY LEAD TO A POSSIBLE
ECHO TRAINING/HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO GIVEN WSWLY FLOW IN MID LEVELS
BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE CONVECTION BAND ORIENTATION DEPICTED
BY THE MODELS. OTHER THAN TO RAISE POPS A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY A BIT, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED.

AK

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BASIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AREA...VFR CONDS ARE
XPCTED INTO THE EVENING HRS. AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA FROM THE W/SW...CIGS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY LOWER THIS
EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE MID/SRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. SFC FLOW OUT OF THE S IS ALSO XPCTED TO STRENGTHEN
AROUND 10-12 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
AS A PRE-FRONTAL SQ LINE BEGINS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS/CONDS LOOK TO DEVELOP IN/NEAR ANY HEAVIER
CONVECTION...WHILE SFC WINDS VEER MORE TOWARD THE W/SW.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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