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Area Forecast Discussion
572 FXUS64 KHUN 260633 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 133 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016 .DISCUSSION... The last remaining rainfall shown on radar reflectivity has just about dissipated in Madison and Lincoln Counties. Satellite imagery depicts remnant anvil debris clouds across TN, AL and GA. Watching to see if any fog or low stratus develops, but nothing so far. Upstream imagery and streamflow analysis shows a weak shortwave/vorticity axis along the MS river valley that will be dropping southeast into our forecast area today. This along with a surface boundary/convergence zone basically north-south from middle TN through eastern AL will provide the needed support for scattered thunderstorms today. The greater POP will be east of I-65, but given outflow boundaries, it is difficult to rule out activity just about anywhere today. Forecast soundings appear similar to what was observed at BMX and OHX this evening, with sufficient CAPE values in the 2-3k J/kg range to support strong updrafts. D-CAPE values should reach around 1k J/kg or a bit higher again today to support isolated downbursts. I won`t rule out some hail as well with ample CAPE noted in the hail growth zone of storms, despite WBZ heights above 10kft. The CI/CS shield should remain thin enough for good heating again today, with readings in the low to mid 90s expected. Suspect clouds and storms may develop sooner today, so have dropped highs a bit from yesterday. Model guidance continues to indicate nocturnal continuance and/or redevelopment of thunderstorms overnight with the wave/shear axis basically remaining in place through Monday. On Monday, yet another wave arrives as well from our northwest, with another one or two to follow through Tuesday. Went with likely POP on Monday, and high chance POP on Monday Night and Tuesday, but I suspect if model trends continue, we may need to increase these POPs as well. Hopefully the rest of the area will receive beneficial and not excessive rainfall during this period. However, given slow movement and potential for repeated thunderstorms, intense downpours could lead to isolated flash flood events during the next couple of days. The GFS and ECMWF are much more progressive with the cold front on Tuesday, bringing drier air to the region Tuesday afternoon. The NAM is slower and keeps showers and thunderstorms a possibility. Will go on the low side Tuesday afternoon, then dry by Tuesday evening. We should see a more pleasant period of weather during the middle of next week with lower humidity and near seasonal temperatures. A wet pattern still looks to be setting up by next weekend into the following week. No significant variances were made from suggested model blends. && .AVIATION... (Issued 1201 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016) For 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions will continue for much of tonight, before MVFR vsbys are expected to develop around daybreak due to fog. A VCTS period was included after 15Z at KHSV, when VFR conditions are expected to return. Left VCTS out at KMSL, as forcing should be better east of I-65. Could see MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys if -TSRA occurs at either TAF site though, especially after 26/18Z. KTW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Huntsville 96 73 92 72 / 40 30 60 50 Shoals 96 74 91 72 / 30 30 60 50 Vinemont 94 72 91 71 / 30 30 60 50 Fayetteville 94 72 90 71 / 40 30 60 50 Albertville 94 72 90 71 / 40 30 60 50 Fort Payne 93 71 89 70 / 40 40 60 50 && .HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.