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Area Forecast Discussion

571
FXUS62 KGSP 240754
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
000
TTAA00 KCAE 240752

AS OF 330 AM...A POTENT 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ACRS THE TN VALLEY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SOME OF THAT CLOUD COVER HAS ALREADY BEEN
SPREADING INTO THE AREA...AND THAT HAS HELPED LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SOMEWHAT. AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE AIR IS FAIRLY
DRY...THEREFORE SO FAR NOT MUCH FOG HAS DEVELOPED. IT/S ALSO
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MUCH FROST IS DEVELOPING OUT THERE. WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW 30S IN
SOME OF THE HIGH ELEV VALLEYS. I WILL JUST RESEND THE PRODUCT TO
FRESHEN WORDING.

FOR TODAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN...AND UNTIL
THE BACK EDGE OF THE VORT MAX EXITS TO THE EAST...THERE SHUD BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS LINGERING. THIS MAY AFFECT MAX TEMPS A
HAIR...WITH THICKNESSES RISING ABOUT 5-10 DAM...BUT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. NOTICEABLY WARMER IN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WITH LESS
CAA AND WIND.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED RIGHT OVER
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
SHUD ONCE AGAIN DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE MTN VALLEYS...AND LWR-MID
40S ACRS THE PIEDMONT...GENERALLY ABOUT 5 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THERE
WILL PROBABLY BE PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS.
MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY MORNING...FOR MUCH OF
THE SAME AREAS AS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL RIPPLE EAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AS A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX BUILDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONUS. RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND
SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN MAINLY MTN CLOUDS. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S EAST.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
RISING HEIGHTS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND PLENTY OF SUNLIGHT. USING A
BLEND OF MOS...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S WITHIN
THE MTN VALLEYS TO U70S EAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT
SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRI...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT QUIET WEATHER
WILL LINGER THROUGH NEXT WEDS. MON THROUGH TUES...THE CENTER OF A
590 DM RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A BROAD TROF
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SFC...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY
SLIDES SOUTH...SFC INSTABILITY MAY BECOME WEAK DURING WED AND THURS
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISO TO SCT
SHRA...WITH ISO MTN TSRA ON THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
000
TTAA00 KCAE 240601

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME BRIEF FOG AT
KAVL/KAND/KHKY...BUT WITH DEWPT DEPRESSIONS STILL RUNNING SEVERAL
DEG AT ALL TAF SITES...AND A QUITE A BIT OF THICK CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME PASSING MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT NLY THRU THIS
MRNG...THEN VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...ARK



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