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Area Forecast Discussion

300
FXUS62 KGSP 261711
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
111 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATE
THIS WEEK... MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AS A BERMUDA HIGH
REDEVELOPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED PER STATELLITE
IMAGERY...RESULTIN IN A LOW LEVEL CUMULUSE FIELD FORM THE HICKORY
AREA IN NC...TO THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WERE UPDATED
FROM A BLEND OF THE LATEST ADJMAV AND NAM.

AT 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND
TO NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO. DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH VERY LIMITED CLOUD COVER OVER OUR AREA. WITH
WARM AIR ALOFT AND COOL SURFACE AIR...INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING
TODAY...AND CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN AROUND FOUR DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN COOL NE SURFACE FLOW.

THE CENTER OF WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z WED. WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...
THEN REMAIN 3 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 60S EAST...OR 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. WITH THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AND STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON THU...A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN
AT THE AREA. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS  HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH I-40 CORRIDOR INTO SRN VA ON BY LATE
THURSDAY. ALL THE MODELS SHOW SOME QPF RESPONSE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AS CAPES INCREASE TO PERHAPS
1000J/KG OR MORE. HENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT WIDELY
SCT/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NC MOUNTAINS...EASTWARD
ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE THU EVENING. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RE-ASSERTS ITSELF ON FRIDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE A CATEGORY OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SE U.S.
THROUGH TUE BUT DE-AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SATURDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SCT ELSEWHERE
ON SUNDAY. WILL ADVERTISE NEAR CLIMO POPS FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION
BOTH MONDAY AND TUE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SE
STATES. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. LOW MVFR CLOUDS EARLIER TODAY HAVE RISEN TO LOW VFR
LEVELS...AND COVERAGE REMAINS GREATER TO THE EST OF THE FIELD. MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW CLOUD COVER DECREASING OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG. LIGHT NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO THE N
TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS MAY PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON.

AT KAVL...KAVL COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIFR CIG AND VSBY AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AS HAPPENED THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKY COVER
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE LIMITED WITH TIME. LIGHT N WINDS WILL
PERSIST.

ELSEWHERE...VFR.  LOW VFR CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.REMAIN
LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE N TONIGHT. GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT FOG AT TAF SITES
WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOG IS INDICATED TO IN THE VICINITY...GENERALLY
TO THE N AND W.

OUTLOOK...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY MID TO LATE WEEK TO GRADUALLY
SUPPORT RETURNING ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MTNS. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   62%     LOW   55%     LOW   48%     LOW   53%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JAT






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