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Area Forecast Discussion

903
FXUS62 KGSP 222351
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
751 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DDHHMM
WRKNRT

730 PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE HOURLY TEMPS/TD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS TREND. OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF/CYCLONE CONTINUE TO
EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  AT THE SURFACE...COLD
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  IN
RESPONSE...NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION CONSEQUENT OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAS
ALLOWED FOR MODEST WARMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST SITES
HOVERING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.  INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES
AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO YIELD GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS RESIDING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCENTRAL UPSTATE DUE TO GAP
WINDS THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES
LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 5-10MPH RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...TERRAIN BLOCKAGE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND
ALSO IN AND AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO DECREASED
WINDS AND INCREASED FOG POTENTIAL.  NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY DRY THAT FAR SOUTH...HOWEVER WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THESE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE VISB
REDUCTIONS OF AROUND 4-5 MILES BY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...QUIET/COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HOLD IN
THE LOWER 40S.  DESPITE THE COLD AND NEAR FREEZING MINS TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST CONCERNS AS
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEVELS UNSUPPORTIVE OF FROST FORMATION.
WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AND
SOUTHWEST NC COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WOULD SUPPORT
FROST POTENTIAL...THUS WILL LIKELY ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE
ZONES.  ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR
CLIMO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WED...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY A SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU
NITE/FRI. THE TROF MOVES EAST FRI NITE/SAT LEAVING NWLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT NW FLOW AND PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHUD RESULT IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NC MTNS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. WILL SEE COOL NITES AND MILD DAYS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL FOR THE MTN ZONES WHERE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL
BEING ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DDHHMM
WRKTAF

AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 00Z FRI.
N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THOUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
REMAINING IN THE 6-10 KTS RANGE. PATCHY FOG MAY AFFECT OVER THE
SAVANAH RIVER VALLEYS BEFORE SUNSET. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
THROGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH



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