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Area Forecast Discussion

233
FXUS62 KGSP 211107
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
707 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY
FOLLOWED BY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN ON THURSDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE...LINGERING LOW VSBY ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS WILL
LIFT AND MIX OUT THIS MORNING BY 15Z. BEGINNING TO SEE ISOL
-SHRA/SPRINKLES AND VIRGA ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND MORNING SKY/POP
GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. T/TD CURVES ARE ALSO RIGHT ON TRACK. NO
SIGFNT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...LLVL STCU IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
NC MTN SPINE AND THE SKY GRIDS WERE ADJ UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE WRN
PORTION OF SW MTN ZONES. AREAS OF DENSE FG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
LITTLE TN VALLEY WHILE OTHER MTN VALLEYS ARE SEEING LESS DENSE FG
SETTING UP. THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY COULD DROP INTO PATCHY DENSE FG
OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

AS OF 245 AM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BRINGING A CLIPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATL THROUGH THE DAY.
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE WILL BE GLAKES ENHANCED BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TO THE NC MTN SPINE AND NRN MTN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALONG WITH GOOD MECH LIFT...THERE WILL BE THE
PRESENCE OF ULVL DIV ACROSS THE MTNS AIDING IN STRATIFORM PRECIP
GENERATION. THUS HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO THE CHANCE RANGE CENTERING
ON 18Z FOR A FEW HRS. WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PARENT
LOW...HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO DROP TO ISOL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW AND LESS AVAILABLE. MIXING TO
H8 WILL PRODUCE LOW END TO MODERATE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE MTNS AND FTHILLS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OVER THE
MTN VALLEYS AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NON/MTNS IN DOWNSLOPE
ENHANCED WARMING.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING PGRAD WITH THE CLIPPER TROF LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MTNS DEVELOPING EAST THROUGH THE CWFA
OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT TIME HEIGHTS SHOW REINFORCING SIGMA CAA BEGINNING
ARND 02Z WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 KTS OR SO OVER THE MTN VALLEYS...AND
LIKELY 40-45 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A CA AIRMASS MIXES
IN...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT ARND DAYBREAK. NO WIND ADV WILL BE ISSUED
AS THE CRITERIA NEEDED IS ABOUT 8-10 KTS HIGHER FOR SUSTAINED WINDS
AND GUSTS. MIN TEMPS WILL DROP TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL WITH
MT MITCHELL LIKELY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. TEMPS AND TDS WILL
APPROACH THE FROST RANGE OVER SOME HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS...BUT
CONTINUED MOMENTUM TRANSFERS WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A FR.Y.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE CWFA WILL REMAIN WITHIN DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND AS COOLER AIR PERMEATES THE REGION...MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL CATEGORIES COOLER THAN TUESDAY. SAVE
FOR SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS ACRS NW NC...SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
PLENTIFUL...ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY GUSTY NW WINDS. EXPECTING
DEAMPLIFYING FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ATOP THE REGION FOR THURSDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTER WOBBLES FURTHER UP THE NE ATLANTIC
COAST. DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A
CATEGORY OR TWO WARMUP...BUT STILL BELOW CLIMO...FROM WEDNESDAY/S
READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEPICT LITTLE IN THE WAY
SENSIBLE WX ACRS THE SE CONUS TO ROUND OUT THE WORKWEEK WITH A
DEVELOPING WEAKLY FORCED S/WV TROUGH ALOFT AND BROAD SFC LEE
TROUGHING. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND...NEARING
CLIMO. A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE WILL BE FEATURED FOR
SATURDAY WITHIN DRY NW FLOW ALOFT...AND YET WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING NOSES EASTWARD. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE RIDGING WILL HANG ON THROUGH DAY 7...DRY AND CONTINUED
MILD FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL ALLOW
GOOD MIXING WITH SOME LOW END GUST PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON. FEW FAIR
WX CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
W/LY VEERING NW/LY AFT 18Z.

ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF IFR FG DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS THE MTN
VALLEYS. MODERATE GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT KAVL AND KHKY WITH CLIPPER FRONT AND CAA PUSHING IN.
NON/MTN SITES COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR VSBY PERSISTING AT KGSP. WITH
INCREASING W/LY TO NW/LY WINDS ARND MID DAY VEERING ARND 00Z. LOW
END GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SC TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...BLUSTERY AND COOLER FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...THEN
WARMING THE LATTER PORTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT SEEM TO BE THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN APPARENT AT THIS
TIME...AS AIR WILL DRY AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     MED   74%     MED   60%
KHKY       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...SBK






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