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Area Forecast Discussion

390
FXUS62 KGSP 240251
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1051 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030 EDT PM UPDATE...LATEST IR  IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN HOURLY SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE FCST TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE SC. HENCE...HAVE
INCREASED FRI MORNING LOWS BY A FEW  THERE.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FROST ADVISORY OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE NC
MTNS/FOOTHILLS LOOKS OKAY GIVEN THE SURFACE OBS TREND.

700 PM UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND
TD PER LATEST SURFACE OBS TREND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER THE CP HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...EJECTING UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES TO RELAX
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
15-20MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT WITH 20-25MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AS CHANNELING
ENHANCES FLOW.  OTHERWISE...PREDOMINATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL LEVELS.  AS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING SLIDES
OVERHEAD THIS EVENING...EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS.  AS A
CONSEQUENCE OF THIS COMBINED WITH RELAXING PGF/WINDS...FROST
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NC.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT COULD EXPERIENCE PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER EXPECTING THIS TO
BE RATHER SPARSE IN COVERAGE.  THUS...NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE
FROST ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISRUPTING THE PATTERN
FRIDAY WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS BEING THE ONLY WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN LEADING
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THU...NW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SAT AS AN UPPER
TROF SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THE FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT
ON SUN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA SAT THEN WEAKENS SAT
NITE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NW FLOW DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE FROM NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
GUIDANCE BLEND NOW FAVORS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES SAT NITE...SO HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE FCST. THERE CERTAINLY
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA DURING THIS TIME...
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS DIMINISHING. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT RISE ABOVE NORMAL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THU...GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THRU THE
MEDIUM RANGE. AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MON THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA MON AND OFF SHORE TUE...BUT REMAINS WEAKLY RIDGED
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO CLEAR SKIES MON AND SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUDS TUE. HIGHS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE LOWS START
OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND RISE EVEN HIGHER MON NITE. AN UPPER
TROF CROSSES THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER AND
DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE OVER THE
AREA THU IN THE LINGERING WEAK LONG WAVE TROF OR SWLY FLOW. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA WED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STRONGER
AND MORE MOIST SYSTEM. THE ECMWF THEN PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA THU WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE RETURNING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO
CHC WEST AND SLIGHT CHC EAST WED/WED NITE THEN DROPPING BACK TO
SLIGHT CHC THU. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT SHOW A SLOW COOLING
TREND FROM WED TO THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE IFR LEVEL FOG
RESTRICTIONS AT KAVL AND MVFR VISBY AT KAND BEFORE SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
SEEN IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT N/NNWLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE
VEERING TO THE WSW/SW BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JOH



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