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Area Forecast Discussion

305
FXUS62 KGSP 031507
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1107 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...THE PRIMARY ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WILL BE
TO ADD ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POPS IN THE MTNS NEAR THE NC/SC LINE WHERE
DEWPOINT POOLING WILL BE BETTER AND LIGHT S TO SE UPSLOPE WILL
CONTINUE. ELSEWHERE...WILL DRY DEWPOINTS A BIT FURTHER AS MIXING TO
800 MB OR HIGHER WILL COUNTERACT ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
THE LIGHT SE SFC FLOW. A LATE DAY SEABREEZE SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
LOWER PIEDMONT...BUT WILL FEATURE NO POPS WITH THAT AT PRESENT.

OTHERWISE...AN UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE ERN CONUS THIS
AFTN...THEN BEGINS TO LIFT TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER RIDES UP THE EAST COAST ALONG A LEFTOVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FINALLY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE
NRN TIER FROM MCS ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP
POPS DRY IN THE WRN MTNS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE UP TO 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...TO THE SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE
CAROLINA AND GA COASTS ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING....MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE SC ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY THEN RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REACHES VA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE SPREADS EAST ALONG
THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY BE
GREATER ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AND MOISTURE INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS COLD ADVECTION NEVER REALLY
SETS UP WITH FRONT RETREATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...ON THURSDAY NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE OVER THE CONTINENTAL USA...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER PATTER AMPLIFIES BY SATURDAY...
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. BY
SUNDAY THE PATTERN STARTS TO DEAMPLIFY...AND THE RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF STATES. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...ON THURSDAY A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
VA CAPES TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGING
EXTEND ACROSS FL TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...REACHING WESTERN NC ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
CROSSING UPSTATE SC AND NE GA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT REACHES S GA
AND THE SC COAST ON SUNDAY COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BEHIND THIS FRONT.

ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WIL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HEIGHTS FALL ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW CLOUDS MAKING A RUN NW FROM THE LOWER PIEDMONT HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO LIFT AND SCATTER...AND LITTLE MORE THAN FEW TO
SCT 020 TO 030 WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH LATE MORNING. THEN EXPECT
HIGHER BASED CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS AS MIXING DEEPENS TO 800
MB OR HIGHER AND DEWPOINTS DRY. EXPECT LIGHT SE TO S SFC WINDS TO
CONTINUE. IT IS CURRENTLY UNCLEAR WHETHER STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...CIG RESTRICTIONS NOW LOOK LESS LIKELY AT THE SC STIES AS
THE MORNING PIEDMONT/FOOTHILL STRATUS CONTINUES TO SCATTER AND LIFT.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT WITH GENERALLY HIGHER
BASED CUMULUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY ISOLD SRN MTN
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS. EXPECT
LIGHT S TO SE SFC WINDS TO CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%
KGSP       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   66%
KGMU       HIGH  87%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%
KAND       HIGH  90%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG/RWH



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