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Area Forecast Discussion

490
FXUS62 KGSP 251748
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
148 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A PROGRESSIVELY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
OF AIR BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. STEADILY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THEN SEEN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THEREFORE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTREME NEAR TERM.  MADE SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES ACCOUNTING FOR ABUNDANT WARMING AMONGST SUNNY
SKIES.  FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AS OF 315 AM...POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIG A 500 MB LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST STATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH LARGE RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL TURN THE FLOW NW AND INCREASE ATOP THE CWFA...AND HELP
DROP A DRY/WEAK SFC FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
QUITE DRY TODAY...SO EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND A RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS
FROM COOL EARLY MORNING LOWS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
70S ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER MTN VALLEYS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

TONIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK FRONT...A SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE NC MTNS WITHIN NWLY FLOW. AN
OUTSIDE CHC OF A LIGHT ISOLD SHOWER BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NRN
MTNS. BUT IF ANYTHING...MAINLY PATCHY SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. I
WILL KEEP A SLGT CHC MENTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN THE NRN MTNS. THE
REST OF THE CWFA WILL LIKELY JUST EXPERIENCE A WIND SHIFT FROM SW
BACK TO NW. WITH WARMER AFTN HIGHS...AND INCREASED/LINGERING MIXING
OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST FEW
NIGHTS...MAINLY IN THE 40S IN THE MTNS AND UPR 40S TO LWR 50S
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SAT...ON SUNDAY...BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...H85 FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND HEIGHT RISES SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE DAY...MARGINAL GUST POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...PROVIDING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THE H5 RIDGE
AXIS WILL PIVOT OVER THE REGION...WITH THE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS BY 0Z TUES. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE U70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO L80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SAT...THE 25/12 UTC OP GFS SUPPORTIVE OF WPC EXTENDED
FCST PROGS IN THE HANDLING OF PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL
ZONE ACRS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY INTO WED NITE LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR
A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST PLACES. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
BEEN TRENDING MORE AGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER AND
LESS WARM AIR FOR THURSDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...
EXPECTING PRONOUNCED EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND
PROGESSIVELY COOLER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.  WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL POOL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN LEADING TO LOW VFR CIGS AT KAVL BY MID/LATE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW MID/HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING THROUGH.  HEIGHTS WILL RISE
BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO CONTINUED CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF THE WEAK FROPA THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES BEFORE INCREASING AND
VEERING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT.  BY
MORNING WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AND OUT OF NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...ASIDE FOR A BRIEF/WEAK COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION SATURDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO BKN LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE MTNS...DEEP LAYER
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH/NED
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...CDG



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