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Area Forecast Discussion

699
FXUS62 KGSP 250243
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1043 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1030 PM EDT UPDATE...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WAS PASSING OVERHEAD AS OF
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CP SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NW
RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED
PER LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...HENCE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER
ACCORDINLY. EXPECT QUIET AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH PATCH FOG POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SW MTNS/VALLEYS BEFORE SUNRISE.

720 PM EDT UPDATE...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
COVER/HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBS TREND.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
REGION FORM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THIS UPPER WAVE EJECTS EASTWARD
THIS EVENING...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ALONG THIS
HEIGHTS ALOFT.  THUS...SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR BY EARLY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIONWIDE.  THESE COOL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS WILL YIELD FROST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST NC...TO INCLUDE BUNCOMBE COUNTY
AND THE OUTSKIRTS OF ASHEVILLE PROPER.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE UPSTATE AND
NC PIEDMONT HOLD IN THE LOWER 40S.  HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE ON SATURDAY EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST.  FURTHER WEST...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY PERIODS END.  AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RETURN TO AT OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRI...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA SAT NITE
PUSHING THRU A WEAK COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE ENUF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM TO COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRA ALONG THE TN BORDER. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE MTNS...EVEN WHERE SHRA DO NOT DEVELOP.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT GUSTS SHUD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE DAY SUN...BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER. ELSEWHERE...SOME CLOUDS MAY SPILL OUT OF THE MTNS AND ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHUD PREVAIL.
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LOW END GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. TEMPS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

ON MONDAY...A BROAD H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS. SLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AND THICKNESSES WILL BE ON THE RISE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...AFTER LOWS A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRI...UPPER RIDGING ATOP THE SE CONUS LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL HANG ON INTO TUESDAY...CONTINUING OUR STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
SWLY LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BOOST MAX TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE CLIMO
VALUES. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON JUST HOW QUICKLY FRONTAL ZONE
MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY AFFECT THE MTNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE OP GFS
SLOWER THAN EARLIER SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...TOKEN SMALL SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE NC MTNS WEDNESDAY.

A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY CREEPS INTO THE FCST FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING INTO THE CWFA
ON THURSDAY. AT LEAST A LIMITED AMOUNT OF FORCING FOR SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY BEFORE L/WV TROUGH AXIS ROTATES THROUGH AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z SUN AT ALL TERMINALS. CALM TO LIGHT NW/NE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE SW/WSW
BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AROUND 16Z SAT IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER THE COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW
PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ033-049-
     050-053-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JOH



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