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Area Forecast Discussion

927
FXUS62 KGSP 011406
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1006 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. TO
THE EAST...A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST
ALLOWING DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER
CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BERMUDA STRENGTHENS TO OUR
EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WITH DECREASING ACTIVITY IN UPDATE SC AND NE
GA. WINDS WERE UPDATED TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST NAM MODEL DATA.

AT 910 AM EDT...AN UPPER LOW REMAINED OVER EASTERN CANADA...WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE GULF COAST. A
SHORTWAVE WAS EXITING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS...
WHILE ANOTHER WAS DIVING INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...WITH ALMOST NO
ACTIVITY IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING NEAR
THE COAST TODAY...WITH ROBUST MOISTURE EXTENDING INLAND OVER THE
BOUNDARY AS FAR WEST AS THE PIEDMONT...AND LESSER MOISTURE WEST TO
THE MOUNTAINS. WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA...BUT WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS
BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVED YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. WITH THE AREA
STILL RECOVERING FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL...ISOLATED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE WILL BE CANCELLED. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SE OF THE FA OVERNIGHT...
ROBBING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS DEEP CONVECTION FIRES ALONG THE
COAST. MINS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID TO UPPER
60S NON/MTNS AND L60S MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
SATURDAY WITH THE WET PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS THRU THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...DEAMPLIFY A BIT...AND TAKE ON A MORE POSITIVE TILT.

ON SATURDAY...AS THE WEDGE PATTERN PERSISTS DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CWFA WITH THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE GREATEST QPF IS MORE LIKELY SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS NUMEROUS LOBES OF PVA ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND OVER THE
FCST AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST ANOTHER QUARTER TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL OVER
THE CWFA BY EARLY SUN.

ON SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY AND PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE NW BUT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE OVER
THE NC PIEDMONT WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. OVERALL QPF POTENTIAL DOES
NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE OVER MOST OF THE CWFA WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS LIKELY JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THE STALLED BNDY.
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP COULD OF COURSE SHIFT DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE BNDY ACTUALLY MAKES IT. AT ANY RATE...I KEPT POPS AT
HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH VALUES TAPERING
OFF FROM THE NW TO SE BY THE END OF MY PERIOD 12Z MONDAY. TEMPS WILL
VARY LITTLE FROM DAY TO DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1220 AM FRIDAY...THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINNING AT 12Z
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WITH A TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO MORE ZONAL
WEST TO EAST FLOW IN MID WEEK. AS THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN...A WEAK
UPPER LOW WILL BE LEFT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES IN MID WEEK...OUR AIRMASS WILL
BECOME DRIER AND TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. ON MONDAY...THE
STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT FROM NRN FL TO ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL HAVE WEAK LOWS RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT.  IT APPEARS THE
TROPICAL LOW BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS OUT
TOWARD BERMUDA ON TUESDAY AS IT TURNS FROM NW TO N THEN NE AVOIDING
THE EAST COAST. BY WED AND THUR WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN OF PM TSTORMS FAVORING THE MTNS WITH LESS OUT OVER THE
PIEDMONT. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW LATE
THURS...BUT MOST EFFECTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

MONDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN REBOUND
TO NEAR NORMAL WED AND THURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO COME AND GO
AT CLT THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED LOW OF CIGS MVFR...POSSIBLY
IFR... THROUGH 16Z. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC
HEATING WILL BE SLOW. THE TAF REMAINS PESSIMISTIC WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY THEN A DROP BACK IFR LATE ARND 03Z. THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR PROB30 MENTION AFT 21Z.

ELSEWHERE...A MIXED BAG OF CIGS/VSBY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON THE
INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF RAINFALL. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN LOW
MVFR...IF NOT IFR...THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR CIGS. KAND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN FROM
THE WEST. OTHER SITES WILL LIKELY TEMPO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH LOWERING CIGS TO IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR VCTS MENTION ALL SITES THIS
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH ENHANCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALONG WITH MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            14-20Z        20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z
KCLT       MED   63%     MED   60%     MED   62%     HIGH  87%
KGSP       MED   77%     MED   77%     LOW   59%     MED   66%
KAVL       MED   72%     MED   66%     MED   69%     HIGH  86%
KHKY       MED   79%     HIGH  84%     MED   76%     HIGH  90%
KGMU       MED   76%     MED   71%     LOW   47%     LOW   45%
KAND       MED   74%     LOW   58%     LOW   46%     LOW   54%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PLANNING FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS DUE
TO LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JAT/SBK
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...SBK
FIRE WEATHER...






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