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Area Forecast Discussion

831
FXUS62 KGSP 252334
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
734 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A PROGRESSIVELY WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW
OF AIR BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. STEADILY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THEN SEEN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS/WINDS PER LATEST OBS TREND/LATEST 18Z GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY LARGE 590MB H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHILE A CLOSED H5 LOW PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
APPS WHILE A WEAK AND RATHER DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG A SURFACE
TROF THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEYS.  AS SAID
ABOVE...MODELS DONT INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AS IT
SLIDES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.  THAT SAID...LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS ARE
ELEVATED TO THE POINT OF WARRANTING A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATE POPS
ALONG THE TN BORDER AMONGST THE NORTHERN NC MNTS WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE
SHOWER POTENTIAL CANT BE OVERLOOKED.  DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY BACKED
WAA FLOW THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ABUNDANT RADIATIONAL
WARMING...NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS SUNDAY MORNING AS
MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS WHERE 40S WILL PREVAIL.  SUNDAY WILL FEATURE NORTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A REINFORCING BACK DOOR FRONT LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DIVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ALOFT LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES PREVAILING.  TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THAT OF TODAY WITH HIGHS FCST TO EXCEED NORMAL LEVELS
DUE TO BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND ABUNDANT HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SAT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
OFF SHORE TUE. AT THE SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE AREA
MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUN NITE WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING
MON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF SHORE. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TN
VALLEY LATE TUE...BUT THE FCST REMAINS DRY AS ANY PRECIP IS WELL TO
OUR WEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LOWS
NEAR NORMAL SUN NITE RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL MON NITE...WHILE HIGHS
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SAT...THE 25/12 UTC OP GFS SUPPORTIVE OF WPC EXTENDED
FCST PROGS IN THE HANDLING OF PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL
ZONE ACRS THE CWFA WEDNESDAY INTO WED NITE LEADING TO THE CHANCE FOR
A ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR MOST PLACES. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
BEEN TRENDING MORE AGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER AND
LESS WARM AIR FOR THURSDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...
EXPECTING PRONOUNCED EASTERN CONUS L/WV TROUGH TO DEVELOP AND
PROGESSIVELY COOLER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...LEADING TO SW/WSW
WINDS VEERING TO THE NW BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z SUN. DESPITE THE
FROPA...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SOME PASSING LOW VFR
CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE NC MTNS/VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY YEILDING SKC WITH PREVAILING NW WINDS AT
ALL LOCATIONS. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 7-10KTS BY EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO 15KTS MAINLY OVER THE MTNS
ZONES AND THE WESTERN NC PEIDMONT.

OUTLOOK...ASIDE FOR A BRIEF/WEAK COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION SATURDAY
NIGHT LEADING TO BKN LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE MTNS...DEEP LAYER
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER AND A LOW PROBABILITY OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...CDG/JOH
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JOH



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