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Area Forecast Discussion

979
FXUS62 KGSP 231437
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1037 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY THIS
MORNING WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN ALONG WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST GA AND THE NORTHWEST
NC PIEDMONT.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
REGIONWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERSISTENT LOW FOG/STRATUS IN THE
LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAY.  THUS...NO
CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.  DID TWEAK
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND CLOUDS
ACROSS THE WRN MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER TROF PULLS
NE. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FR ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN MTNS AND EXTREME
NE GA BEFORE HEATING COMMENCES ARND 13Z. TEMPS AND TD/S LOOK GOOD
WITH ONLY MINOR ADJ NEEDED TO COVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

430 AM EDT UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS. THE TEMP
AND TD GRIDS WERE MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE DIURNAL CURVE. MESONET OBS
ACROSS THE FR.Y AREA INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF CURRENT FROST OR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST IN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AFFECTED ZONES.

AS OF 230 AM EDT...STRONG CANADIAN HIPRES WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION TODAY SUPPORTED BY S/W RIDGING AND SUBS ALOFT. THIS
WILL CREATE DRY CONDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
0.25 TO 0.35 WEST/EAST DURING MAX HEATING. CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY ONCE AGAIN TDAY WITH INCREASING CI BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE WEST AHEAD OF AN ULVL TROF. THE SFC P/GRAD WILL LOOSEN OVER THE
AREA AS WELL WITH WINDS REMAINING IN A WEAK NW/LY CONFIG THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. EARLY TO MID MORNING GUSTS ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS WILL
RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE BL LOSES MOMENTUM ENERGY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...LIKELY A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW A LLVL
THICKNESS TROF SLOWLY MODIFIES IN GOOD INSOL.

THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE THE ADVANCE OF AN H5 S/W TROF. THIS TROF
WILL BE LIMITED IN MOISTURE AND ONLY BRING ULVL CLOUDS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS ACCOUNT FOR THESE
CLOUDS...BUT STILL DEVELOP WEAK TO MODERATE SFC/BASED INVERSION
ACROSS THE CWFA. SFC TD/S WILL BE TOO LOW FOR MUCH OF A VSBY
CONCERN...BUT TD/S NEAR FREEZING WILL MAKE AREAS OF FROST PROBABLE
ACROSS ALL THE NC MTNS. A FR.Y WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE NC MTN
COUNTIES NOT ALREADY TURNED OFF FOR THE SEASON BY THE EARLIER OCT
5TH FREEZE. MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MTNS AND FTHILLS...TO THE LOWER 40S NON/MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...CLASSIC AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVES OUT
OF THE MIDWEST TO REINFORCE THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THIS WAVE MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY...AND THE REMOTEST OF MOUNTAIN SHOWER CHANCES...BUT OVERALL
THE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. BY SUNDAY...HEIGHTS
WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THEREFORE...WHILE TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD VERY CLOSE TO
CLIMO...MAX TEMPS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP A CATEGORY OR SO
ABOVE NORMAL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FLIGHT CONDS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUPPORTING
RIDGING/SUBS ALOFT. THIS WILL CREATE VERY DRY PROFILES WITH SKC ALL
SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME. FROST DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AT
KAVL AND KHKY BEFORE MELTING AFT 13Z. WEAK WINDS WILL REMAIN ALIGNED
UP VALLEY AT KAVL AND GENERALLY NNW/LY AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS EXCEPT
KAND...WHERE FLOW ARND THE TERRAIN WILL MAKE FOR W/LY FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-
     053-063>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SBK



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