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Area Forecast Discussion

580
FXUS62 KCHS 301740
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
140 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical Depression Bonnie will meander over or
near the coast of South Carolina through Monday before slowly
moving northeast away from the area through mid week. A cold front
will then approach the region late week and stall over or near the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.
The remnants of TD Bonnie are expected to linger across the
central South Carolina Coast as steering flow remains weak.
Precipitable water values should remain nearly 2 inches around the
Charleston Tri- county area, way above normal for this time of
year, with values falling to near 1.5 inches closer to the
Altamaha River in southeast GA. With the deeper moisture, best
convergence and greatest instability across southeast SC we expect
that area to see the best rain chances with the potential for some
heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flooding, especially
for locations that have seen several inches of rain in the past
few days. High temperatures generally in the lower 80s north/ with
mid to upper 80s south, warmest near the Altamaha River where it
could reach 90.

Tonight: Upper level features and what is left of Bonnie nudge slowly
away and convective rains should wane across southeast South
Carolina later in the evening with scattered showers possible
after midnight. Low temps will be in the 65 to 70 degree
range...coolest inland Georgia where some skies should be mainly
clear by then.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Remnants of the tropical system will be located somewhere near the
coast of the SC/NC border at daybreak Tuesday. Through the day,
models indicate that the low will make very little northeast
progress, mainly just meandering in the general vicinity. Deepest
moisture will have shifted north of the area, but precipitable water
values around 1.7 inches will keep rain chances in the forecast,
highest across the northern zones.

Wednesday into Thursday the low will slowly track along the NC
coast, while a rather weak pressure pattern remains in place over
the local area. Sea breeze and sufficient moisture will help kick
off afternoon showers thunderstorms each afternoon, with decreasing
coverage in the overnight hours. Deep layered shear will be lacking,
but forecast surface based CAPE of around 2500 J/kg could support a
few stronger storms. Mid level ridge building over the southeast
will result in a warming trend through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models are in fairly good agreement through the long term period.
Weak high pressure will give way to a cold front approaching from
the west Friday into Saturday. The front will then likely stall over
or near the area through weekend, before eventually dissipating.
Rain chances will stay in the forecast each day, peaking in the
afternoon when instability is greatest. Temperatures will be near
or slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR ceilings at KCHS with IFR cigs possible through the period as
low level moisture wraps around the remnants of TD Bonnie. Showers
are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon
especially if we can get more breaks in the clouds, mainly across
southeast SC. There is a small risk for thunder as well. At
KSAV...low risk of restrictions from showers/storms this afternoon
and from stratus/fog toward daybreak Tue.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low risk for flight restrictions from
mainly afternoon showers/thunderstorms and early morning
fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
We have managed to lower all Small Craft Advisories this morning.
Most of the waters will see an offshore flow on the s and sw
flanks of the poorly defined depression. Speeds through tonight
will mainly be 15 kt or less and seas 2 to 4 ft, highest off the
Charleston County coast. Any Convection may produce higher wind
gusts but we expect conditions on the waters to less turbulent
than on Sunday. The depression could linger tonight with winds up
to around 15 kt at times.

Tuesday through Saturday: Marine conditions expected to be fairly
quiet through the period. Remnants of the tropical system will
linger north of the waters much of Tuesday before slowly lifting
northeast along the North Carolina coast through mid-week. In wake
of the low, a rather weak pressure pattern will be in place. Winds
will generally be 10 knots or less, with seas 2 to 3 feet on
average. A cold front will then approach from the west Friday into
Saturday providing some increase in winds/seas, but conditions will
still stay well below small craft advisory criteria.

Rip Currents: An enhanced risk of rip currents is expected at all
beaches through at least today.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...ECT/RJB
MARINE...ECT



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