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Area Forecast Discussion

475
FXUS62 KCHS 231054
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
654 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING...PASSING SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY LATE
MORNING. ONLY VERY MINOR COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MODELS SHOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY BECOMING
POSITIVE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURF ZONE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY PUSHING INLAND BY A FEW MILES...MAINLY
OVER NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA. THE BEACHES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT
WARMER THAN USUAL FOR LATE APRIL AS A RESULT...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BEGIN TO DROP A BIT BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE TERMINALLY
DIRECT CIRCULATION MEANDERS VERY SLOWLY INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT SINK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

THURSDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAUSING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE
A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT OCCURS ALOFT. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WIND SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH FROPA
AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MID 80S AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVORING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
BEFORE STALLING OR DISSIPATING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF
POSITION...THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE TO
TEMPS AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...RIBBON OF IFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. VFR OTHERWISE. VFR AT KCHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND MUDDLED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...A MORE SOLID EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT ALL LEGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB






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