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Area Forecast Discussion
880 FXUS62 KCHS 271718 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 118 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered to the north will prevail into Monday. Low pressure will then persist into late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... This afternoon and Tonight: A broad mid/upper lvl ridge of high pressure will remain centered over the Mid Atlantic states through the period while sfc high pressure extends south over parts of the southeastern United States. The setup will favor a capped environment over Southeast South Carolina with little to no chance of precip. Further south in Southeast Georgia, a pocket of moisture characterized by PWATs around 1.5 inches will extend onshore along the southern edge of high pressure, creating the possibility of a few showers and/or isolated thunderstorm during peak heating this afternoon/evening. Best chances of activity will remain near coastal locations south of I-16 in Southeast Georgia. 1000-850 mb thickness values suggest another day of warm temps. In general, temps will peak in the low/mid 90s away from the coast. Temps should be a few degrees cooler along the immediate coast, peaking in the upper 80s. By Tonight, the threat for showers will remain limited to our most southern locations and will likely be diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. It should be another quiet night for most areas with overnight lows reaching the low/mid 70s away from the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Deep high pressure will be replaced with more troughing through the period and this should result in increasing clouds/rain chances and as a result, lowering temperatures. Limited instability should keep thunder chances low and also help keep total rain amounts pretty low as well. Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... There is still some uncertainty through mid week regarding the potential for low pressure to develop and track close to the area. Nonetheless troughing will prevail into late week and we kept rain chances near normal. Temperatures should be a bit above normal through at least Thursday before likely falling closer to normal by Saturday. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at both CHS and SAV terminals through 18z Sunday. Extended Aviation Outlook: There will be an increased risk of flight restrictions in showers/possible thunderstorms through the middle of next week depending on the track of low pressure which is likely to be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. && .MARINE... This afternoon and Tonight: High pressure will dominate most waters, especially off the coast of South Carolina. However, east/northeast winds will continue to gust up to 15-20 kt early this afternoon in Georgia waters and along the coast where a sea breeze circulation occurs. Winds should gradually improve this evening and overnight, but seas will gradually build to around 5 feet in offshore waters as long period swell encounters the area. Sunday through Wednesday: High pressure centered north of the area will generally prevail but weaken as a trough and possible area of low pressure affect the waters. This pattern will favor mainly east/northeast winds 15 kt or less with some higher gusts at times. Seas should peak up to 4 ft within near shore waters and 5 ft in the outer waters. Thus, Small Craft Advisories are not expected at this time. However, mariners should note that with increasing swells, conditions could get a little rough at times near the entrances to bays, rivers, inlets and harbors. Rip currents: Long period swells up near 15 seconds are expected to impact the coast through early next week. Thus an enhanced risk should persist. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tides are expected to remain higher than normal given the persistent onshore winds and could reach high enough to produce minor saltwater inundation in the typical areas along the lower SC coast during the late day high tide cycles into early next week. Thus, Coastal Flood Advisories may eventually be needed. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...DPB SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...DPB/RJB MARINE...DPB/RJB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...