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Area Forecast Discussion

880
FXUS62 KCHS 271718
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
118 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to the north will prevail into Monday. Low
pressure will then persist into late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This afternoon and Tonight: A broad mid/upper lvl ridge of high
pressure will remain centered over the Mid Atlantic states through
the period while sfc high pressure extends south over parts of the
southeastern United States. The setup will favor a capped environment
over Southeast South Carolina with little to no chance of precip.
Further south in Southeast Georgia, a pocket of moisture
characterized by PWATs around 1.5 inches will extend onshore
along the southern edge of high pressure, creating the possibility
of a few showers and/or isolated thunderstorm during peak heating
this afternoon/evening. Best chances of activity will remain near
coastal locations south of I-16 in Southeast Georgia. 1000-850 mb
thickness values suggest another day of warm temps. In general,
temps will peak in the low/mid 90s away from the coast. Temps
should be a few degrees cooler along the immediate coast, peaking
in the upper 80s. By Tonight, the threat for showers will remain
limited to our most southern locations and will likely be
diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. It should be another
quiet night for most areas with overnight lows reaching the
low/mid 70s away from the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Deep high pressure will be replaced with more troughing through the
period and this should result in increasing clouds/rain chances and
as a result, lowering temperatures. Limited instability should keep
thunder chances low and also help keep total rain amounts pretty low
as well. Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There is still some uncertainty through mid week regarding the
potential for low pressure to develop and track close to the area.
Nonetheless troughing will prevail into late week and we kept rain
chances near normal. Temperatures should be a bit above normal
through at least Thursday before likely falling closer to normal by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at both CHS and SAV terminals through
18z Sunday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: There will be an increased risk of
flight restrictions in showers/possible thunderstorms through the
middle of next week depending on the track of low pressure which
is likely to be in the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
This afternoon and Tonight: High pressure will dominate most
waters, especially off the coast of South Carolina. However,
east/northeast winds will continue to gust up to 15-20 kt early
this afternoon in Georgia waters and along the coast where a sea
breeze circulation occurs. Winds should gradually improve this
evening and overnight, but seas will gradually build to around 5
feet in offshore waters as long period swell encounters the area.

Sunday through Wednesday: High pressure centered north of the
area will generally prevail but weaken as a trough and possible
area of low pressure affect the waters. This pattern will favor
mainly east/northeast winds 15 kt or less with some higher gusts
at times. Seas should peak up to 4 ft within near shore waters and
5 ft in the outer waters. Thus, Small Craft Advisories are not
expected at this time. However, mariners should note that with
increasing swells, conditions could get a little rough at times
near the entrances to bays, rivers, inlets and harbors.

Rip currents: Long period swells up near 15 seconds are expected to
impact the coast through early next week. Thus an enhanced risk
should persist.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides are expected to remain higher than normal given the persistent
onshore winds and could reach high enough to produce minor saltwater
inundation in the typical areas along the lower SC coast during the
late day high tide cycles into early next week. Thus, Coastal Flood
Advisories may eventually be needed.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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