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Area Forecast Discussion

625
FXUS62 KCHS 290544
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE OUTER REACHES OF OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUIET. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER SOME
OF THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20
KT...MAINLY IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES BY LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEED
DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...WMS/DPB




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