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Area Forecast Discussion

227
FXUS62 KCHS 021503
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE REGION WILL THEN REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA TODAY...BUT ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESS WILL BE LIMITED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE MORE OF A
GRADUAL EASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST BY LATE IN THE
DAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL
BE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...WHERE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. THE
FORECAST WILL THEREFORE INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF I-16...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE BEAUFORT AREA...WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UP INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED.

CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MOST EXTENSIVE NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
WHERE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ALREADY TAKE THIS CLOUD
COVER INTO ACCOUNT AND DON/T SEE ANY REASON FOR CHANGES AT THIS
POINT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES
AND AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 AS
THE POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THERE
IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER DIFLUENCE TO HANG OUR
HATS ON THUS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE POP SCHEME. IT CERTAINLY COULD
BE WET AROUND THE DARIEN AREA BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ACROSS MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 02/00Z NAM/EURO DEPICTION OF INSTABILITY
DEPICTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. ALSO...WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. ALSO OF
NOTE...HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-105F COULD BECOME COMMON OUTSIDE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S AT MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY...A COMPLEX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS/WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME...ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DEPICTS LESS THAN EXPECTED QPF DUE IN PART TO DRIER AIR WEDGING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. THUS...CAPPED MAXIMUM/AFTERNOON POPS
AT 40 TO 50 PERCENT. MEANWHILE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND A CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY...CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS/WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW PROVIDED BY THE SPRAWLING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD TRANSLATE TO ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...POCKETS OF DRY
AIR CIRCULATING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL COMPLICATE
POPS FORECASTS. THUS...HIGHEST POPS ARE PLACED SOUTH SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND OVER ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW COULD RETROGRADE
WEST OF THE REGION...AND PERHAPS THIS WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER
POPS AND A WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. RAINS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TONIGHT...CANNOT RULE OUT MORE
LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS BUT TOO EARLY FOR ANY INTRODUCTIONS ON THE
12Z CYCLE.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT THE WATERS WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH WINDS
MAINLY SW TO S LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS INCREASE AS A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE WEEK...SUPPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT DOMINATED BY
THE PM SEA BREEZE AND AM LAND BREEZE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY...AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTH. THUS...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL BUILD THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE HOLDS WINDS/SEAS
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE CAPPED AT 15
TO 20 KT/3 TO 4 FT. HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AS NEEDED WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE.../SPR



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