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Area Forecast Discussion

848
FXUS62 KCHS 240753
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...OVERNIGHT SKIES HAVE BEEN MAINLY CLEAR TO THE NORTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE GEORGIA. VERY THIN
CIRRUS WERE ALSO MOVING EAST INTO SE GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND DARIEN GEORGIA
EARLIER ON. TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 70
ALONG THE COAST.

DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH DRY AND STABLE
MID LEVELS PRECLUDING ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ONE THING WE DO SEE THROUGH TODAY IS WEAK LOW LEVEL
SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST EARLY...LEADING TO JUST ENOUGH
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO PERHAPS SPUR ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE
GEORGIA SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE
CONCERNS TO HAVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE TODAY. OUR FORECAST
PERSISTENCE IS STRONG WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ON TAP. SKY COVER IS
TRICKY WITH THE MOISTURE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND THIS
WILL LIKELY NEED TOUCH-UPS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG 300K MAY PLAY A
PART IN EXPANDING SOME NOCTURNAL STRATOCU FIELDS ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH GEORGIA NORTHWARD WITH TIME TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 LATE. OTHERWISE...
PATCHY CLOUDS...CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SINKS
SOUTH. ON MONDAY THE BEST THETA-E WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST GA WHERE
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO OVERCOME THE MID-LEVEL
CAP IN SPOTS AND SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION. TUESDAY WILL BE A
SIMILAR STORY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND
LOCALES. SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FURTHER AND SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. WE BUMPED POPS
INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FAR INLAND WITH 20S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY THOUGH
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY INLAND. A SLIGHTLY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MINIMIZING RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV THROUGH
MID MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM
ONSHORE SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID WEEK...MAINLY AT KSAV LATE NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE PERSISTENCE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AVERAGING 15-20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. THERE IS A
SMALL CONCERN THAT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP WITH SHORT WINDOWS FOR 25 KT GUSTS AND/OR 6 FT SEAS IN
THE 15-20 NM RANGE BUT FOR NOW WE ONLY HAVE AN ADVISORY GOING FOR
20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS FOR 5-6 FT SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW AND WINDS
GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 15 KT. A SLIGHT WIND ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS AS HIGH
AS 5 FT OVER OUTER PORTIONS MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO NO HIGHER
THAN 4 FT BY TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AND
2-3 FT 7-8 SEC SWELLS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST TODAY AND WE
MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL BEACHES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND THE RIP CURRENT RISK MAY BE ENHANCED ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL



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