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Area Forecast Discussion

286
FXUS62 KCHS 190602
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
102 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE NIGHT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND
TO THE MID 40S AT THE BEACHES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON MIDNIGHT
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WARMEST GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16 AND WEST OF I-95. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES IN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND WEST TO CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY...PRETTY WET AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING SHIFT OFFSHORE. THE QUICK PACE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THERE
WILL NOT BE A LOT OF RAIN...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY ONLY GETTING NO
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE LEADING TO CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. OPTED TO STAY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
GIVEN THE PATTERN...MAINLY AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE MOULTRIE WITH LOWER
TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 NEAR LUDOWICI AND
DARIEN. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 40
NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR 50 SOUTH AND EAST.

SUNDAY...THERE ARE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMOUNT OF
DEEP MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW WE MAINTAINED HIGHEST CHANCES /30
PERCENT/ NEAR THE COAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER BUT IT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCALES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE PERIODS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
THE INLAND WEDGE WILL PERSIST AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS INLAND WEDGE WILL
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
FINALLY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS STILL DISPLAY NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS IN THIS PERIOD...MAINLY THANKS TO
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW DEEP THE UPPER LOW GETS AND THE OVERALL
AMPLITUDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
A FEW DAYS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO PERIODS OF
HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE UP THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME NW/N AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 KT. SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FEET.

A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS WEEKEND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WIND SURGES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







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