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Area Forecast Discussion

312
FXUS62 KCHS 281130
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY. PWATS
STILL BELOW 1 INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN INLAND FROM THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW COASTAL CUMULUS
AND CIRRUS POSSIBLE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
WITH LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO THE
WEST OF I-95.

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK INTO
THE 60S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY
LOW OVERALL AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
DRY GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BUT BY THE WEEKEND
SOME MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH COULD HELP
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN FOG NEAR DAYBREAK EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. ALSO...LOW
PROBS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXPAND W INTO OUR COASTAL
WATERS ENSURING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY IS THE RESIDUAL SWELL WAVE COMPONENT. LATEST WAVE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN THE SWELL TODAY WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
OUR FORECAST PERSISTENCE. WE RECENTLY LOWERED OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AS EVIDENCE THAT SEAS WERE NOW CLOSER TO
5 FT OUT THERE...OTHERWISE 4-5 FT SWELL WAVE BEYOND 20 NM EARLY WILL
SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT. NEAR SHORE...A 2 TO 3 FT LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL DECREASE TO 2 FT OR LESS BY LATER TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS MAINLY S/SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB






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