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Area Forecast Discussion

410
FXUS62 KCHS 251527
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1127 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY THE PASSAGE OF A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
A GULF OF MEXICO STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MID WEEK WITH
DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN LIKELY RETURNING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM DENMARK SOUTH
THROUGH CLAXTON AND HUGHLAND IS MOVING QUICKLY EAST AND IS ON
TRACK TO MOVE OVER LIBERTY...BRYAN...LONG AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN
CHATHAM COUNTY WITHIN THE HOUR. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE IS
MARGINAL AT BEST.

ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO CLEAR THE COAST 18-19Z WITH HIGH RES
GUIDANCE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT POST CONVECTION RECOVERY /TEMPS
SOARING INTO THE 80S/ OCCURRING THROUGH 21Z BEFORE ANOTHER LINE OF
TSTMS POTENTIALLY MOVES IN AND AFFECTS AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE LINE OF TSTMS THAT COULD POSE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD THE RECOVERY OCCUR. IT
IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR NORTH THIS LINE COULD REACH...BUT STILL THINK
AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF A METTER-BEAUFORT LINE OF THE BEST
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE TSTMS LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED BY THIS TIME. THE
BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE AS THE COLUMN DRIES AND
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 6S ACROSS THE
AREA.

SUNDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 GIVEN STRONG OFFSHORE
WINDS AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA AND A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH DRY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. COULD SEE SOME
LATE SHOWERS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY...PROBABLY MORE LIKE THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE. STILL SOME TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES THOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE
FASTER AND STRONGER WITH THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY
FROM THE AREA THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AS DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRIER WITH TEMPS GETTING
BACK TO AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV UNTIL CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AROUND MIDDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. EXPECT MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ROUGHLY IN THE 16-23Z TIME FRAME. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG/ERRATIC WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF AROUND 20 KT. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO LATE THIS EVENING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED ONCE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR OR
LOWER CEILINGS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD
BE A FACTOR AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 03Z AS WINDS INCREASE TO
35-40 KT WITHIN 2K FT OF THE SURFACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL
INTO TUE BEFORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS RETURN MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS SPREAD OVER THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK
AROUND 15-20 KT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE FURTHER
INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS
WILL ALSO STEADILY BUILD...PEAKING 3-5 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT
OFFSHORE WATERS JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS BEGINNING AT 11 PM THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER PORTION OF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COASTAL WATERS AS WELL WITH LATER FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY SURGE WILL ENSUE WITH
CONDITIONS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTH SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND THUS WINDS AS WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS GO BACK
DOWNHILL AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLY BEING NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH
REGARDING THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THE LOW AND THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST



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