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Area Forecast Discussion

110
FXUS62 KCHS 160240
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1040 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL 8 AM
WEDNESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
IMPACT THE AREA AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC
LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW OFFSHORE AND POISED TO MOVE ACROSS BUOY
41004 BY 10 PM. HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTING
BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY FALLING WITH 16/01Z
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE
MID-UPPER 40S AT THE COAST LOOK ON TRACK. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 30S
COAST...WHICH IS DOWNRIGHT CHILLY FOR MID-APRIL.

LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY SCOURING OUT AS DOWNSLOPE
TRAJECTORIES TAKE HOLD...HOWEVER CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT JET CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH VERY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS BY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

LAKE WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT MIXING ACROSS
LAKE MOULTRIE WILL SUPPORT IN A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
FRIDAY DRY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE COULD CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE LIKELY MOVES NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND AS A RESULT THE LOW/S PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST. AT THE VERY LEAST A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL YIELD BREEZY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST...AND ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH A SLOW WARM-UP IS EXPECTED WITH TIME. THE
COOLEST TEMPS WILL COME THURSDAY MORNING WHEN INLAND AREAS SHOULD
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...ALTHOUGH LITTLE TO NO FROST IS
EXPECTED GIVEN THE ELEVATED WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OF NE AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA BEFORE EASTER MORN. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME WET WEATHER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW AND ITS CO-LOCATED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AND THERE IS PROBABLY A SHARP
GRADIENT OF RAINFALL...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE SOUTHEAST AND LESS
PROBABILITIES NORTHWEST. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL LATER
SATURDAY...EASTER DAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE SOME MOISTURE RETURN
COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY. NO EXTREMES IN TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DISTINCT LINE OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
TERMINALS...LEAVING SOME TRAILING STRATUS BEHIND. CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN...OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE STRONG HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BEFORE SETTLING DOWN AT THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AND BE THE
DOMINANT IMPACT INTO LATE WEEK. SUB-VFR WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM
OFF THE ATLANTIC...THEN POSSIBLY A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
PASSES NEARBY ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AT 41008 ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO GALE FORCE AND
WITH PRESSURES STILL RISING OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE BEEN UPGRADED TO
A GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO LATE WEEK AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THUS ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FOR
CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE LOW
PASSES BY. COULD BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY GALE WARNINGS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING OF THE LOW AND THUS MARINERS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK AS CONDITIONS
COULD POSSIBLY BE MUCH WORSE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALL BEACHES
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TIPS NORTHEAST AND COMBINE WITH
ELEVATED SEAS AND LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES. AND ELEVATED
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST





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