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Area Forecast Discussion

623
FXUS62 KCHS 231430
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE
REGION WHILE A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN
REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT SUPPORTS TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LATEST
1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17
WITH SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY
DAWN ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM
THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE WATERS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A CUTOFF LOW
THAT BECOMES POSITIONED FURTHER OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB/RFM






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