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Area Forecast Discussion

624
FXUS62 KCHS 220526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN
WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...



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