« Back
NWS Peachtree City, Ga » Text Product » CHS Area Forecast Discussion


Printer-friendly Version
Current Version              Previous Versions:   1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  

Area Forecast Discussion

604
FXUS62 KCHS 170225
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
925 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER THROUGH
LATE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
AND TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT JUST BEFORE
17/02Z AND WILL CLEAR THE UPPER CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WITHIN
THE HOUR. COOL/DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S
INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 40S BEACHES LOOK ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.

FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS UPPER CHARLESTON
  COUNTY WHERE THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE LAST.
* MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
  OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BENEATH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN RATHER DRY LOW LEVEL
CONDITIONS...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE FORM OF THIN
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN ZONAL...HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO BUILD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. NOT TRULY A WEDGE AS THE PARENT HIGH IS NOT IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION AND THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OR ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...INDUCING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM AT THE SURFACE
ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA LATE.
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH AT ALL IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION...BUT
ARE TYPICALLY TOO SLOW IN DEVELOPING RAIN WITHIN AN OVERRUNNING
ENVIRONMENT. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATER
IN THE DAY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST COMPLEXITY RAMPS UP QUICKLY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST
WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AND SPREAD MOISTURE OVER TOP OF
A DEVELOPING COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. THE MODELS DEPICT BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL TRACK OF THE LOW...OPTING TO TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THEN UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE DAMMING WEDGE. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR SATURDAY...WHICH IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY WET.
SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AS THE PRESENCE OF THE DAMMING
HIGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN AND RESULT IN A
COOL/WET DAY. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. THERE IS THEN POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE AREA MID WEEK...BUT MODEL
AGREEMENT IS QUITE WEAK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH FROM THE GULF COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. GUSTS 25-30 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM 00Z-09Z...THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THAT PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS...WITH 4 TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE ACROSS THE WATERS INTO FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME...WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS NO MORE THAN 2 FEET. THEN LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THEN UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEPENDING ON
HOW THE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW EVOLVES WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR
SOME/ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.